From: perry_kuo
Sent: Tuesday, October 18, 2011 11:59 AM
Dear Mikeon 桑,
試做了中碳的例子.
中碳(1723)
(1)現在配息率
前年配息率=IF(ISNUMBER(前年配息率),MIN(前年配息率,0.9),0)=MIN(0.77,0.90)=0.77<-確保<=0.9
去年配息率=IF(ISNUMBER(去年配息率),MIN(去年配息率,0.9),0)=MIN(1.02,0.90)=0.90<-確保<=0.9
今年配息率=IF(ISNUMBER(今年配息率),MIN(今年配息率,0.9),0)=MIN(0.89,0.90)=0.89<-確保<=0.9
現在配息率=MAX(前年配息率,去年配息率,今年配息率)=MAX(0.77,0.90,0.89)=0.90<-取最大值,頂多=0.9
(2)1-盈再率
盈再率<=80% => 1-盈再率=MIN(1-盈再率,90%)=MIN(85%,90%)=0.85<-確保<=0.9
(3)預期配息率
現在配息率>=(1-盈再率) => 預期配息率=現在配息率=0.90<-取大值,頂多=0.9
中碳例子中跟預期配息率相關的數字有 -- 0.77,0.85,0.89,0.90,1.02(配息率不可能長期>1).最後取得預期配息率=0.90.
符合 Mikeon 桑所說的:
預期 ROE 固定(ex.35%)下,預期配息率越高(=0.90),預期報酬率越低(越保守).
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