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我覺得波克夏年報，最近幾年最精彩的就屬2011年的這段(第6,7頁）
當波克夏買進股票回購的公司，我們希望兩件事發生：
1. 一般想法，公司能維持一段很長時間的獲利成長
2. 公司的股價同時長期低迷
看DTV、LO，因為併購題材而股價被墊高，回購效率變差，如果沒併成(DTV併了也浪費），今年就費時又費錢了。
反觀IBM、PETM、BBBY，可能就比較有搞頭，希望整年都這個價(也不需再跌，看了不舒服）。
IBM 的CFO喊出2015的EPS是20元，被街上的分析師(華爾街）打臉，股價就變這樣了，我本來也不相信20元(獲利不可預期，但流通股數減少是確定的)，但股價一直這樣，反而達成的機會變大。到時市場最好給IBM 9倍的本益比。
BBBY手上還有8.6億，若是全部買在56元，可以買回7-8%流通股數。
BBBY今天開盤跌，那就慶祝一下，我的方式就是開瓶啤酒，吃兩支你我他鴨翅。
美股才有這種樂趣
When Berkshire buys stock in a company that is repurchasing shares, we hope for two events: First, we have the normal hope that earnings of the business will increase at a good clip for a long time to come; and second, we also hope that the stock underperforms in the market for a long time as well. A corollary to this second point: “Talking our book” about a stock we own – were that to be effective – would actually be harmful to Berkshire, not helpful as commentators customarily assume.
Let’s use IBM as an example. As all business observers know, CEOs Lou Gerstner and Sam Palmisano did a superb job in moving IBM from near-bankruptcy twenty years ago to its prominence today. Their operational accomplishments were truly extraordinary. But their financial management was equally brilliant, particularly in recent years as the company’s financial flexibility improved. Indeed, I can think of no major company that has had better financial management, a skill that has materially increased the gains enjoyed by IBM shareholders. The company has used debt wisely, made value-adding acquisitions almost exclusively for cash and aggressively repurchased its own stock.
Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%. Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us. Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for the day: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period?
I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years.
Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire 250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and we would own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-year period, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding after five years, of which we would own 6.5%.
If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100 million greater under the “disappointing” scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $11 ⁄2 billion more than if the “high-price” repurchase scenario had taken place.
[ 本帖最後由 Josephchu0616 於 2014-6-26 14:00 編輯 ]
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