標題: RIO 力拓集團 已合格 - 礦產及資源 (景氣循環)
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發表於 2018-9-6 14:26  資料 私人訊息 
RIO 力拓集團 已合格 - 礦產及資源 (景氣循環)
請問各位學長的看法 礦產類股如何辨別景氣高低
以RIO來講 老美貿易戰 大大影響到股價
以導致還有比便宜價更便宜 連Moriningstar 也分析 他們建議賣出

We maintain our AUD 48 per share fair value estimate for no-moat-rated Rio Tinto. First-half 2018 adjusted net profit after tax of USD 4.4 billion was 5% higher than a year ago but slightly below our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.7% to USD 9.2 billion, with the contribution from copper and diamonds up 76% to USD 1.4 billion on stronger prices and volumes. This outweighed the headwind from energy and minerals, where EBITDA fell 28% to USD 1.0 billion, mainly due to the loss of earnings from Coal and Allied, sold in the second half of 2017, and the strike at Iron Ore Company of Canada. Pilbara iron ore EBITDA was flat at USD 5.7 billion, with increased volumes offsetting lower prices, while aluminium increased 10% to USD 1.8 billion with higher prices and volumes, partly offset by higher costs. Inflation pressure continued to build, particularly in the aluminium operations, where the price of key inputs rose materially. Higher costs offset about 70% of the benefit from higher prices in the aluminium division. Returns to shareholders were a feature of the result. Rio Tinto declared a first-half dividend of USD 1.27 per share fully franked, up 15% from USD 1.10 per share a year ago. This was in line with the 15% increase in adjusted earnings per share to USD 2.52, with the payout ratio steady at 50%. The company will buy back a further USD 1 billion of shares. The share repurchases are relatively expensive, being in a period of relatively high commodity prices and earnings. However, the additional buyback is relatively small, representing less than 1% of issued capital. This means the potential value destruction is not material to our fair value estimate. Rio Tinto plans to return a further USD 4.0 billion in aftertax proceeds from asset sales in the second half, but the form of returns is yet to be decided. We favour a greater proportion of earnings being returned to shareholders but question the merit of procyclical buybacks.

對於沒有護城河的力拓,我們維持每股48澳元的公允價值。 2018年上半年調整後的淨稅後利潤為44億美元,比去年同期增長5%,但略低於我們的預期。調整後的EBITDA增長1.7%至92億美元,由於價格和數量的增加,銅和鑽石的貢獻增加76%至14億美元。這超過了能源和礦產的逆風,EBITDA下跌28%至10億美元,主要是由於2017年下半年出售的Coal和Allied的虧損以及加拿大鐵礦石公司的罷工。皮爾巴拉鐵礦石EBIT持平,為57億美元,成交量增加抵消了價格下跌,而鋁價上漲10%至18億美元,價格和成交量增加,部分被成本上漲所抵消。通脹壓力繼續增加,特別是在鋁業務方面,關鍵投入的價格大幅上漲。較高的成本抵消了鋁部門價格上漲帶來的約70%的收益。股東的回報是結果的一個特徵。力拓公司宣布上半年每股1.27美元的股息已全額上繳,比去年同期每股1.10美元上漲15%。這與調整後每股收益增加15%至2.52美元一致,派息率穩定在50%。該公司將再回購10億美元的股份。股票回購相對昂貴,處於商品價格和收益相對較高的時期。然而,額外的回購相對較小,不到已發行資本的1%。這意味著潛在的價值破壞對我們的公允價值估計並不重要。力拓計劃在下半年從資產出售中再回收40億美元的稅後收益,但回報的形式尚未確定 我們傾向於將更大比例的收益歸還給股東,但質疑順週期回購的優點。
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mikeon88
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發表於 2018-9-6 17:48  資料 主頁 文集 私人訊息 
原料股和景氣循環股的操作策略:
1. 盯準GDP或油價
2. 等股價跌到很便宜時,預期報酬率20%以上再進場
3. 抱超過一個景氣循環,即5年以上
前述策略1. 不會判斷時換2. ,2. 被套時採3.
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ictim
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發表於 2018-9-6 18:22  資料 私人訊息 
我覺得景氣循環股因為ROE不穩定,所以長期持有的複利效果應該會比ROE又高又穩定的好公司差
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發表於 2018-9-6 20:18  資料 私人訊息 
  1. RIO股價與油價同步,建議低油價再議!




[ 本帖最後由 Curry 於 2018-9-6 20:20 編輯 ]
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