剛好今年巴菲特又提到了對於指數型基金投資的相關話題
雖然去年對此有和Michael和各位同學進行討論切磋
很可惜沒什麼共識
也許裡面的一些想法能對大家有幫助
以下節錄相關部分,分享給大家,有興趣可去看全文
簡單翻譯一下,有錯麻煩同學指證
I have good news for these nonprofessionals: The typical investor doesn't need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th century, the Dow Jones industrial index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the nonprofessional should not be to pick winners -- neither he nor his "helpers" can do that -- but should rather be to own a cross section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.
對於非專業投資人,巴菲特認為他們不必有這些技巧(指上述巴菲特提到他以內在價值和安全邊際判斷買房子、股票以至於所有金融商品的方法),實際上,美國企業隨著時間的前進總是會表現的很好,在20世紀,DJI從66點上升到11497點,並且增加了許多股息,21世紀我們會看到更進一步的增加,而且肯定是很大的幅度。對於非專業投資人他們的目標不是去選擇到一個贏家,甚至他們的投資顧問也做不到這一點,他們最需要做的事情是擁有一個籃子的企業並且確信這些企業以後會有好的績效,一個低管理費的S&P500 指數型基金就可以做到這一點。
That's the "what" of investing for the nonprofessional. The "when" is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs's observation: "A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.") The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the "know-nothing" investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better long-term results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.
以上所述是非專業投資人要投資"什麼",但是"什麼時候"投資也很重要,對於非專業投資人最大的威脅便是在最極端樂觀的狀態下進入市場(記住Biggs's的名言:牛市就像是做愛一樣,總是在它結束前感覺最美妙)。 一個非專業投資人對於進入市場時機錯誤的解藥,是在消息不好並且股市從高點回落時持續累積持股並且持有很長一段時間都不要賣出。ㄧ個非專業投資人若進行最分散的投資以及讓他買股的成本降到最低,他就肯定會獲得滿意的報酬。事實上,一個業餘投資人若對他自己的弱點很明瞭的話,他會在長期表現的比一個懂很多但是對於自己的缺點不瞭解的專職投資人好
[ 本帖最後由 tw54585 於 2014-2-27 08:24 編輯 ]
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