¼ÐÃD: Á¿½Z»P¬Õ¦Aªí§K¶O¤U¸ü
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 16:41  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¦P¾Ç¤£­n«ö¬Õ¦Aªí¥X¨Ó¤@¬Ý¡A
§»¹F¹q¡u¦X®æ¡v¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v26%¡A
´N«Ü¿³¾Ä¸õ¤U¥h¶R¡C
¦X®æ¥X²{¤§«á©³¤U¨Ó¦³¬õ¦â¦r´£¿ô¶·¦AÀË©w¤½¥q·|¤£·|ÅÜ¡C
§Úµo²{¯S¦a¥Î¬õ¦â¦r¼Ð¥Xªº´£¥Ü¦P¾Ç¯S§O¤£·|¬Ý¡I
§»¹F¹q©M®fÂE³o¨â®a¤½¥qªº²£«~·|ÅÜ¡A¤£¬O§Ú­Ì·|·Q¶Rªº¤½¥q¡C

Instead of just relying on the OK signal in On's table indicating a 26% expected return rate for HTC, it is important to consider the durability of the company before making a purchase decision. Despite the red reminder at the bottom of the table, it has been observed that students tend to ignore it. Given that the products of HTC and TPK Holding (3673.TW) are subject to change, these companies are not among our preferred choices.



·d¤£²M·¡¤½¥q²£«~¡A¥i¥H¨ì©xºô¥h¬Ý¡A
¬Õ¦Aªí©¹¥kÃä©Ô¥i¥H§ä¨ì¤½¥qªººô§}¡A
ÂI¶i¥h¥i¶i¤J¤½¥qªº©xºô¡A
¤W­±¦³²£«~¤¶²Ð¡A¦³·Ó¤ù¡A¤@¬Ý´N¤F¸Ñ¤½¥q¦b°µ¤°»ò¡C
·s¤é¿³°µ¼Ï¯Ãªº¡A¼Ï¯Ã¬O¤°»òªF¦è¡H
¬Ý·Ó¤ù¨Ó´N²M·¡¤F¡C

If you are unfamiliar with a company's products, you can visit its official website for information. To access the website, simply drag the company name to the right of On's table. Once you arrive at the website, you can view product information, photos, and gain an understanding of the company's operations. For example, Shinzushing (3376.TW) manufactures notebook computer hinges. If you are unsure what a hinge is, you can simply view a photo on the website to get a clear idea.







³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 16:46  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
2. ²£·~¦a¦ì¤£·|ÅÜ (A©@¡BÀsÀYªÑ)
¤Úµá¯S»¡¡u®ø¶OªÌ¯S³\Åv¡v¡A
¤@¯ëªº¯S³\Åv¬O¬F©²µ¹ªº¡A¹³¥Ûªo¡BµÒ°s¤½½æ¡B¹q«H¡B°ªÅK¡C
¤Úµá¯S»¡³Ì¦nªº¯S³\Åv¬O®ø¶OªÌµ¹ªº¡A
§Y¥«¥e²v°ªªº¤½¥q¡AA©@©ÎÀsÀYªÑ¡C

2. Unshakable industry leader
Buffett referred to "consumer franchise" which can be granted by the government, such as in the sale of oil, tobacco, and alcohol, as well as in telecommunications and high-speed rail. However, the best franchise rights are given by consumers, which means a company with a higher market share.

ÀsÀYªÑªºÀò§Q©MªÑ»ùªí²{³£¤ñ¦P·~Àu¨q¡A¦Ó¥B¥i¥H¦n«Ü¤[¡C
©³¤U³o¨Ç¤½¥q´N³Ì¦nÃÒ©ú¡G
²Î¤@¡B¤j²Î¯q¡B¤R¸Á¡B¥x¶ì¡B¤¤¿û¡BÂ׿³¡B¥¿·s¡B¥x¿n¹q¡B
¥x¹F¹q¡B¤¤µØ¹q¡B¤j¥ß¥ú¡B©M®õ¨®¡B¤¤«O¡B¥¨¤j¡B ²Î¤@¶W

Companies that demonstrate strong profitability and share price performance are often considered industry leaders that can maintain their position over the long term. The following companies serve as excellent examples:
Uni-President (1216.TW), TTET Union, Charoen Pokphand Taiwan (1215.TW), Formosa Plastics, China Steel, Fenghsin (2015.TW), Cheng Shin Rubber (2105.TW), TSMC, Delta Electronics, Chunghwa Telecom (2412.TW), Largan Precision, Hotai Motor (2207.TW), Taiwan Secom (9917.TW), Giant (9921.TW), President Chain Store

³o¨Ç¤½¥q§Ú­Ì¦ó®Éª¾¹D¥¦­Ì«Ü¦n¡A±q§Ú­Ì¤p®É­Ô´Nª¾¹D¤F¡A
ª½¨ì²{¦b³£Á٫ܦn¡A¥i¥H¦n«Ü¤[¡C

When did we realize that these companies were good? We've known it since we were kids. And even now, they continue to perform well and are expected to last for a long time.



¦WµP¤]ÄÝÀsÀYªÑ¡A½æ±o¶V¶Q¤j®a¶V·mµÛ¶Rªº´N¬O¦WµP¡C
³}¦Ê³f¤½¥q¬Ý¨ì¤@¤äBurberry«B³Ê¼Ð»ù7,000¤¸¡A
·í³õ´N«Ü®¥·q¦a§â¥¦©ñ¤U¨Ó¤£´±¥´¶}¡A
¤ß·Q³o½ú¤l¥Îªº«B³Ê¥þ³¡¥[°_¨Ó¤]¤£·|¶W¹L7,000¤¸¡C
Âਭ¬Ý¥¦¥t¥~¤@­Ó±MÂd½æ­·¦ç¼Ð»ù7¸U¤¸¡A
¬ðµMı±o¨º§â«B³ÊÁÙÆZ«K©yªº¡C
´X¦~«á¦P¾ÇªÈ¥¿§Ú¡u³Á¥i¡A§A¦n¤[¨S¦³¥h³}¦Ê³f¤½¥q¤F¡H¡v
¤~·Q°_¨Ó¡A7,000¤¸¬O2002¦~ªº»ù®æ¡C
¦P¾Ç»¡²{¦b¤@§â2¸U¤¸¡A³oÁÙ¬O2013¦~ªº»ù®æ¡C

Well-known brands are often industry leaders, and their products are priced higher because consumers are willing to pay a premium for them. I once saw a Burberry umbrella in a department store priced at NT$7,000 and decided not to purchase it because it was too expensive. I thought to myself that I have never spent more than NT$7,000 on an umbrella in my entire life. However, when I looked at the prices of other items, such as long trench coats priced at NT$70,000, I began to think that the umbrella was actually quite cheap. Years later, one of my students corrected me and informed me that a Burberry umbrella now costs around NT$20,000, which is still a 2013 price.



³}¦Ê³f¤½¥q²`¨ü¨ë¿E¡A·Q¶R¤£°_¦WµP¡A·íªÑªFÁ`¥i¥H§a¡I
´N¥h¶RCoachªºªÑ²¼¡A³ÌºG®É½ß¤F40%¡A
½ßªº¿ú³£¥i¥H¶R¥¦3­Ó¥]¥]¤F¡A
²{¦b¤@·Q¡A·íªÑªF³Ì¶Q¡A¦­ª¾·í®ÉÀ³¸Ó¶R¥]¥]¡C
Coach¦]Àò§Q¤£¨ÎªÑ»ù¤j¶^¡A¦Û¤vªº¤½¥q­n¦Û¤v±Ï¡A
§Ú¤Sªá¤F1¸U¤¸¶R¥¦¤@­Ó¥Ö§¨¡C¶V®M¶V²`¡I

Shopping in a department store can be painful for me, especially when I can't afford a famous brand. So, I decided to become a shareholder at least. I invested in Coach's stock, but unfortunately, I lost 40% of my investment at the worst. That could have bought me three wallets. Now, I realize that being a shareholder can be more expensive than buying a wallet. Due to Coach's poor profits, their stock price plummeted, and I had to save myself. But even as I was trying to cut my losses, I ended up buying another wallet for NT$10,000, and now I feel even more stuck.

¤½¥q²£«~ªº¥«³õ¦û¦³²v¥h­þ¸Ì¬d¡H
¬Õ¦Aªí©³¤U¤¶²Ð³o¤@®æÂI¶i¥h¡A
¶]¨ìMoneyDJºô­¶¡A¦³¤½¥q¤¶²Ðªº¤å³¹¡A
ÂI¤J¡A¤å¤¤·|´£¨ì²£«~¥«¥e²v¡C

Where can you check the market share of a company's products?
You can click on the "Introduction" button under Table 1 on On's website. This will take you to the MoneyDJ webpage, where there are articles about the company. By clicking on one of these articles, you can find information on the market share of the company's products.







³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 16:50  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
²{¦b¸û¬°°½Ãi¤ÖÂI¶i¥h¬Ý¡A¤Ï¥¿¶RÀsÀYªÑ´N¹ï¤F¡A
¥x¶ìªº¥«³õ¦û¦³²v¦h°ª¡H
¤Ï¥¿´N¬O«Ü°ª¡C

Nowadays, I am lazier and do not bother clicking. Nevertheless, buying industry leaders is always a good strategy. What is the market share of Formosa Plastics? It is undoubtedly very high.

¤Úµá¯S´£¨ì¡A­Y¥«¦û²v°ª¨ì¿W¦ûªº¦a¦ì¡A
§Y«K¥X²{³s¥Õè³£¯à¸gÀ窺¤½¥q¨ä¹ê¬O³Ì¦nªº¤½¥q¡C
¤¤¿û´N¬O¡A¥xÆW°ß¤@·Ò¿û¼t¡A
³o´X¦~´««Ü¦h¥ô¸³¨Æªø¡A²£·~¦a¦ì¤´µM¤£ÅÜ¡C

Mr. Buffett once stated that if a company has a high enough market share to dominate, it can be run by an idiot and still be the best company. China Steel is the only steelmaking plant in Taiwan, and despite multiple changes in leadership over the past few years, its position as an industry leader remains unchallenged.



¥x¥_±y¹C¥d¤½¥q¤]¬O¡A
´X¦~«e§ä¤F¤@­Ó³s¥Õè¥h·í¸³¨Æªø¡A
...§Ú¬O¦bºÙÆg³o®a¤½¥q¡C
®³±y¹C¥d¥h°ª¶¯ªº¶W°Ó¥i¥H¨ê¡A
®³°ª¶¯ªº±¶¹B¥d¨Ó¥x¥_³Ìªñ¯à°÷¨ê¡C
±y¹C¥d¨ã¿W¥e¦a¦ì¡A
¥u¬O¤§«e¤£¾å±o¤½¥q³o»ò¦n¡A
¬Ý¨ì¥L©~µM¥i¥H¥h·í¸³¨Æªø¡A¤~µo²{­ì¨Ó³o»ò¦n°Ú¡I

The Taipei EasyCard company is also one, a few years ago they hired someone even considered foolish as their chairman... I am praising this company. You can use the EasyCard to pay at convenience stores in Kaohsiung, and recently, you can use the Kaohsiung MRT card to pay in Taipei. The EasyCard has a monopoly position, but I didn't know the company was this good before. It wasn't until I saw that someone considered foolish could become their chairman that I realized how great they are!

¬Û¤Ïªº¡A¸gÀç¹Î¶¤Â÷¶}·|Åý¤H¾á¤ßªº¤½¥q´N¥i¯à·|ÅÜ¡C
³¢¥x»Ê¦bÂE®üªº¦a¦ì«D±`ÃöÁä¡A
ÂE®ü¬O¤@®a¦n¤½¥q¡A¥i¬O´N¤Úµá¯Sªº¨¤«×¨Ó¬Ý¨Ó¡A¤£¬O³Ì¦nªº¤½¥q¡C

On the contrary, if the management team leaves the company, investors become concerned as the company may undergo changes. Terry Guo's position in Hon Hai is crucial. While Hon Hai is a good company, it may not be the best company from Mr. Buffett's perspective.



¤u¨ã¾÷ªº¨È´Q¡A¦n´X¦~«eÁ`¸g²zÂ÷¾¡A±a¤F¤@²¼¤HÂ÷¶}¡A
·í®É¤j®a³£¾á¤ß·|¦^¹LÀY¨ÓÄvª§¡A
¨È´Q¥i¯à¬O¤@®a¦n¤½¥q¡A¦ý«D³Ì¦n¤½¥q¡C
2008¦~¦³­Ó¦P¾Ç¸ò§Ú»¡¡A
¥L©M¥~³òªº¸êª÷¥h¶R¨È´Q¡A¶R¨ì¥i¥H·í¸³ºÊ¨Æ¡A
¥´¹q¸Ü¥h¤½¥q°Ý°ÝÃD®É¸ò¥L³o¼Ë¶æÁn¡A
µo¨¥¤H³£·|§â¤½¥qªºª¬ªp¤@¤­¤@¤Q¨Ó¸ò¥L³ø§i¡C
¦P¾Ç¤S¸ò¤u¨ã¾÷¤W¤U´å·~ªÌ·d¦nÃö«Y¡A
¦Û»{¬°¹ï¾ã­Ó¤u¨ã¾÷²£·~´x´¤«×«D±`°ª¡C
2008¦~¥@¬É¸gÀÙ³´¤J¦M¾÷¡A¨È´Q¤]¨ü¨ì¼vÅTÀò§Q°I°h¡A
ªÑ»ù¶^¨ì20´X¤¸¡A
³o¦ì¦P¾Ç«D±`ºò±i¡A³sÄò¥´¤F2³q¹q¸Ü°Ý§Ú¹ï¨È´Qªº¬Ýªk¡H
§Ú§¹¥þ¨S¬ã¨s¡A¥u¦n¦^¥L
¡u§A°Ý§Ú¡A§Ú­n°Ý½Ö¡HYou ask me, me ask who¡H¡v
¦P¾Ç«á¨Ó¸ò§Ú»¡¡A·í¨È´QªÑ»ù¶^¨ì³Ì§C20¤¸ªº®É­Ô¡A
¥L´N§â¾ã­ÓªÑ²¼½æ¥ú¥ú¡A
½æ§¹¤§«á¨ÓªÑ»ù´Nº¦¤W¨Ó¡C

everal years ago, the general manager of AWEA Mechantronic (1530.TW), a machine tool manufacturer, left the company with a group of people.
At the time, there were concerns that they would come back to compete with the company. Although AWEA may be a good company, it is not the best company. In 2008, a student told me that he and his friends had purchased enough AWEA stocks to become directors and supervisors.
When he called the company to ask questions, he would confront the spokesperson with a sharp tone, who would then report the company's situation in detail to him.The student also established good relationships with industry participants both upstream and downstream of the machine tool industry and believed that he had a high level of understanding of the entire industry. During the 2008 global economic crisis, AWEA's profitability declined, and its stock price dropped to around NT$20. The student was very nervous and called me twice to ask for my opinion on AWEA. Since I had no expertise in this area, I replied, "You ask me, me ask who?", using a Taiwanese English expression. Later, the student informed me that he sold all of his AWEA shares when the stock price fell to its lowest point of NT$20. After he sold his shares, the stock price went up.

¦P®É´Á¤¤¿ûªºªí²{§ó®t¡A
¨È´Q¥u¬OÀò§Q°I°h¡A¤¤¿û«h³æ©uÁ«·l¡A
¤¤¿ûªÑ»ù¶^¨ì23¤¸®É§Ú©M¤Ú¯Z¦P¾Ç³£¸õ¶i¥h¶R¤¤¿û¶R±o«Ü°ª¿³¡A
½Ð°Ý¬°¦ó³o»ò¤jªº®t§O©O¡H
¦]¬°¤@­Ó¬OA©@¡A¤@­Ó¬OB©@¡A
¤¤¿û¬OA©@¡A¨È´Q¬OB©@¡C

During the same period, China Steel's performance was poor, with a 25% loss, while AWEA's profits were only declining. When China Steel's stock price fell to NT$23, my students and I were delighted to buy China Steel shares. The reason for the big difference in performance is that China Steel is a first-tier company, while AWEA is a second-tier company.



¦P¼ËÀò§Q°I°h¡A¤¤¿û¬O¤°»ò­ì¦]©O¡H
´º®ð¡I
¨È´Q¤S¬O¤°»ò°ÝÃD©O¡H
¥i¯à¬O¤@¨Ç¤£¬°¤H©Òª¾ªº­Ó§O¦]¯À¡C
«Øij¾¨¶q¶RA©@¡A
¦]B©@¤@¥¹¥X¨Æ·Q¯}ÀY³£¤£ª¾¹D¬O¤°»ò­ì¦]¡A
ªÑ²¼·|©ê¤£¤U¥h¡C

Why did China Steel suffer the same profit decline? Business recession! On the other hand, it's unclear what went wrong with AWEA, possibly due to unknown individual factors. That's why I suggest investing in first-tier companies as much as possible. When a second-tier company encounters a problem, even if you are at a loss for ideas and don't know why, it's best not to hold onto that stock for a long time.

¤§«e¦³¤H¤£³ßÅw¶RA©@¡A¥H¬°ªÑ©Ê¤û¥Ö¡A
¨Æ¹êÃÒ©ú¤£µM¡A¥x¿n¹q¡B¤j¥ß¥ú³o´X¦~´N¬O¤jötªÑ¡C
¥u­n°ªROE¡AªÑ»ù«K©y¡A´N¤@©w·|º¦¡C

In the past, some investors avoided buying industry leaders because they believed their stock prices were stagnant. However, recent years have proven otherwise, as companies like TSMC and Largan have experienced significant growth. As long as a company's ROE is high and its stock price is undervalued, it is likely to rise.

¬ã¨s­û·í¤Fªñ30¦~¡A§Ú³Ì«áªº¤ß±o¡G
¡u¶V¤£¥Îªá®É¶¡¬ã¨s´Nª¾¹D¬O¦n¤½¥qªº¡A±N¨Ó¤]¤£·|¥X¨Æ¡I¡v
³o·N«ä¬O»¡¡A·í¬ã¨s­û¬O¤@¥ó¨S¦³·N¸qªº¨Æ¡C

Based on my 30 years of experience as an analyst, I have come to the realization that sometimes it only takes a brief study to recognize a good company with a promising future. This indicates that the role of an analyst may be overrated.

¶RªÑ²¼ÁÙ¬O¤£§Kµo¥Í¶Rªº·í®Éı«Ü¦n¡A
¥i¬O¤@¦~¥b¸ü¤§«á¤~µo²{Åܱo¶V¨Ó¶V®t¡A
³o®É§AÁ`¬O·|°Ý¡A¥¦¬O¤@®É¤ë¦Ò¦Ò®tÁÙ¬O¥Ã¤[ÅÜÃa¡A
¨âªÌ¦p¦ó°Ï§O¡H
¤°»ò¬O¤ë¦Ò¦Ò®t¡H«ü´º®ð¡A
¤°»ò¬O¥Ã¤[ÅÜÃa¡H²£«~©Î²£·~¦a¦ì§ïÅÜ¡C

When buying stocks, it is inevitable that we will feel good about it at the time, but after a year and a half, we may find that the company is getting worse. At this point, we always ask whether the decline is temporary or permanent. What is the difference between the two?
Temporary decline refers to changes in the business cycle, while permanent deterioration refers to changes in the product or industry position.

¤¤¿û³o´X¦~Àò§QºG¿F¡A¦]´º®ð¤£¨Î¡A
¤£¥u¤¤¿û¡A¤¤°êÄ_¿û¡BÁú°ê®ú¶µ¡B¬ü°êNucor
³o4®a·Ò¿û¼tªñ´X¦~ROE³£¥u¦³5¢H¡A
¬O¥þ²y©Ê¿ûÅK·~´º®ðªº°ÝÃD¡C

In recent years, China Steel's earnings have been poor due to the economic downturn. Other companies in the steel industry such as Baosteel of China (600019.CN), Pohang Iron & Steel of South Korea (005490.KR), and Nucor (NUE) of the US have also experienced low ROE of only 5%. This downturn is reflective of a global slump in the steel industry.



§»¹F¹qÀò§QÅܨª¦r³s³s¬O¤°»ò­ì¦]¡H
²£·~¦a¦ì§ïÅÜ¡A
¥¦³Ì¦­¬O´¼¼z¤â¾÷²Ä3¤j»s³y°Ó¡A
²{¦b²_¸¨¦¨²Ä23¤j»s³y°Ó¡C

What caused HTC to go from making profits to incurring losses?
There has been a shift in the industry landscape. Previously, HTC held the position of the third largest smartphone manufacturer, but now it has fallen to the 23rd spot.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 16:58  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
3. ·Q3¬íÄÁ´N¤F¸Ñªº¤½¥q
¤Úµá¯S»¡¡u²³æªº¥ø·~¡v¡A
¦ó¿×¡u²³æ¡v¡H
·Q3¬íÄÁ´NÀ´¡C

3. Easy to understand in 3 seconds
What did Mr. Buffett mean by "simple business"?
Easy to explain in 3 seconds.

¤Úµá¯S¤S»¡¡u­n«ö¨C­Ó¤Hªº¯à¤O½d³ò¥h¿ïªÑ¡v¡A
¤°»ò¬O¯à¤O½d³ò©O¡H
¨ãÅé¶q¤Æ¤£´N¬O·Q3¬íÄÁ¶Ü¡A
·|®³¥X¨Ó°Ýªº´Nªí¥Ü¶W¥X²z¸Ñ½d³ò¡C

What did Buffett mean by "choose stocks according to everyone's scope of competence"? Simply put, it means investing in companies that you understand well. If you have questions about a company, it may be outside your area of competence.

·Q3¬íÄÁ´N¦n¡A§O·Q¤Ó¤[¡A¤£­n·Q¤T¤Ñ¤T©]³á¡C
´¶¦w°µºÏºÐ°}¦C±±¨î¾¹¡A³o¬O¤°»òªF¦è¡H
1 ¬íÄÁ¡B2¬íÄÁ¡B3¬íÄÁ¡A
·Q¤£¥X¨Ó´N¤£­n²z¥¦¤F¡A³o®a¤½¥q¸ò§AµLÃö¤F¡C

Just think about it for 3 seconds, don't overthink it, don't spend three days and three nights on it.
What is Infortrend (2495.TW) doing? They manufacture disk array controllers.
One second, two seconds, three seconds...
If you can't figure it out, just ignore it. This company may not be relevant to you.

§»¥¿°µKVM¤Á´«¾¹¡A³o¬O¤°»ò¡H
1 ¬íÄÁ¡B2¬íÄÁ¡B3¬íÄÁ¡A·Q¤£¥X¨Ó´N©ñ±ó¡C

ATEN International (6277.TW) manufactures KVM switches, which stands for Keyboard, Video, Mouse switch.
What does this mean? Take one second, two seconds, three seconds... If you don't know, it's okay to give up.

©³¤U³o¨Ç³£¬O²³æªº¥ø·~¡G
¥x¶ì¡H°µ¶ì½¦ªº¡A
¤¤¿û¡H¿ûÅK¡A
²Î¤@¶W¡H¶W°Ó¡A
¥¨¤j¡H¸}½ñ¨®¡C
³o¤@®a³Ì²³æ¡A
¥x¿n¹q¡H´¹¶ê¥N¤u¡C
°¨¤W¯à°÷Á¿±o¥X¤fªº´N¬O²³æªº¥ø·~¡A´N³o¼Ë§PÂ_¡I

Here are some examples of straightforward businesses:
Formosa Plastics - manufacturing plastics
China Steel - producing steel
Presidential Chain - operating supermarkets
Giant - manufacturing bicycles
And here's the simplest one:
TSMC - providing IC foundry services.
You can immediately tell what each company does. So, use this approach to evaluate companies!

¦P¾Ç¼g¥ì´A¨à°Ý§Ú¬Y¤äªÑ²¼¯à§_¦n«Ü¤[¡H
¦o»¡·Q¤F¦n¤[¡I
«Øij¦o¶R²³æªº¥ø·~¡A
ÁÙ¸ÑÄÀ¤°»ò¥s²³æ¡H´N¬O·Q3¬íÄÁ¡C
·|®³¥X¨Ó°Ýªº´N¤£¬O²³æ©öÀ´ªº¤½¥q¡C

A student wrote me an email asking whether a certain stock is durable ?
She said she had been thinking about it for a long time.
I suggested that she invest in a simple company and explained what I meant by simple - a company that can be understood in three seconds.
If you have to ask about a company, then it may not be simple enough to understand easily.

¦o»¡¡u³á¡ãÂæ¤lÁÙ¬O«ÜÃø§PÂ_¡I¡v
«ÜÃø§PÂ_´N¬Oµª®×¤F¡I
¦P¾Ç³£¤w¸g§âµª®×Á¿¥X¨Ó¤F¦Û¤v¨ÓÁÙ¤£ª¾¹D¡C
«ÜÃø§PÂ_´N¤£Â²³æ°Ú¡C

She said, "Oh, it's still difficult to judge!"
When it's difficult to judge, that is the answer!
If the student have already explained the answer and she still doesn't know, then it's not a simple matter.



ªì¾ÇªÌ°Ý¡A¥L©Òª¾¤£¦h¨º°Z¤£¥u¯à¶R¨º¨Ç¤Ö¼ÆªºÀsÀYªÑ¡H
­Y¥uÀ´±o¶R¨º¨Ç¤Ö¼ÆªºÀsÀYªÑ¤Ï¦Ó¤ñ¸û¦w¥þ¡A
¦Ó¥BªÑ»ù¤]«Ü·|º¦¡A³o´X¦~¥x¿n¹q¡B¤j¥ß¥ú´N¬O¤j飇ªÑ¡C
µ¥¨ì¾Ç±o¶V¦h¤§«á¡A¯à¤O½d³ò¦ÛµM´N¼s¤F¡C

A beginner asks, if they don't know much, should they only buy a few leading stocks?
It may be safer to only buy those few leading stocks that they are familiar with, and these stocks may also have higher potential for growth. In recent years, TSMC and Largan have been very successful stocks.
As the beginner's knowledge and abilities grow, they can start to expand their investment options.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 17:01  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
Á¿½Z 12/21¡G¦hºØªG¾ð
Lecture 12/21 Diversification



¦p¦óÁקK¤½¥qÅÜÃaªº­·ÀI¡H
²Ä¤@¶R¤£·|Åܪº¤½¥q¡A
²Ä¤G¦hºØªG¾ð¡A
«Øij«ùªÑ¦Pµ¥ª÷ÃB¥­§¡¤À´²¡A
¨Ò¦p«ùªÑ100¤ä¡A§Y¨CÀɪѲ¼¥eÁ`§ë¸êª÷ÃB1%¡A
³æ¤@«ùªÑ¶R³Ì¦h¶R2¥÷¡A§Y2%¡C
­Y²Ä¤@¥÷¶R¶i¤§«á½ß¤F¿ú¡A´N§O«æµÛÅu²Ä¤G¥÷¡A
¦]¬°¨ºµ¥©ó¼úÀyªÑ»ùªí²{¤£¦nªºÃa¾Ç¥Í¡A¤@¿ù¦A¿ù¡C
¹ç¥iµ¥¸Ñ®M¤F¦A¨Ó¥[½X²Ä¤G¥÷¡C

2¥÷¶Rº¡¤§«á´N¤£­n¦AÅu¤F¡C
§â³Ì¤j­·ÀI±±¨î¦b2¥÷¡A
¤£ºÞªÑ»ù¶^¨ì¦h«K©y³£¤£­n¦AÅu¡C
§Ú¶Rªº²H¤ôªe¨¦(VALE)³ÌºG®É½ß¤F90%¡A
­Y¤@ª½Åu¤U¥h¡A²{¦bÁÙ¯º±o¥X¨Ó¶Ü¡H

How to Avoid the Risk of Company Deterioration:
Firstly, invest in a durable company.
Secondly, diversify your investments.
It is recommended to evenly distribute your investment amount among your stocks. For example, if you have 100 stocks, each stock should represent 1% of your total investment. You can purchase a maximum of two shares of a single stock, which is 2%. If the first purchase results in a loss, don't rush to purchase more, as it would reward poor stock performance, perpetuating a cycle of mistakes. It's better to wait until you've exited the losing position before considering additional purchases.

Once you have purchased two shares of a stock, refrain from buying more. It is crucial to control your risk by limiting it to 2% of your investment, regardless of how low the stock price falls. Averaging down should be avoided. For instance, at its worst, my investment in VALE fell by 90%. If I had averaged down, would I still find it humorous now?

¦P¾Ç»¡¥L¤ñ¸û¨S¦³¿ú¡A¨S¿ìªk¤À´²¡H
¨SÃö«Y¡A¤@¤ä¤@¤äºCºCºØ¡A
¦s°÷¿ú¤F¦A¥h¶R²Ä¤G¤ä¡C
¨C­Ó¤H³£¬O±q¨S¦³¿úÅܦ¨¦³¿úªº¡A³o¬O¤H¥Íªº¹Lµ{¡A
§Ú·í§¹§L­è¥XªÀ·|¦s´Ú¶È6¸U¤¸¡A¤]¶RªÑ²¼¶R±o«Ü°ª¿³¡C
¦~»´ªB¤ÍÀ³¸Ó¼y©¯³o»ò¦­´N¹J¨£¤Úµá¯S¡A
§Ú³o½ú¤l³Ì¤jªº¿ò¾Ñ¬O¬°¦ó¤£¯à¦b°ê¤¤
´N»{ÃѤڵá¯S¡I

Students may feel like they don't have enough money to diversify their investments, but it's okay to slowly invest in stocks one by one. Save up enough money to purchase another stock and gradually build a diversified portfolio. Everyone goes through the process of transitioning from having no money to accumulating wealth. For example, after serving in the military, I only had NT$60,000 to start investing in stocks. Today's young people are fortunate to have learned about Buffett's investment philosophy at an early age. My biggest regret in life is not having learned about Buffett when I was in junior high school.

¦P¾Ç°Ý¶RªÑ²¼­n¤£­n³]°±·l¡H
§Ú¤@ª½¤£»{¬°³]°±·l¬O¦nªº¤èªk¡A
¦]¬°«Ü®e©ö³Q¤Ú¨Ó¤Ú¥h¡A
³]10%°±·l¡AªÑ²¼±`±`¶^¨ì12%°±·l¤§«á¤Ï¼u¡C
¦b¡uÅ]ªk®Ñ¡v´¿¼g¨ì
1992¦~¸ò¤@¦ì¼Ú¤Ú®á±ÀÂ˶RÁp¹q20¤¸¡A
º¦¨ì30¤¸¸I¨ì¼Ú¤Ú®á®¥³ß¦o¡A
¦o«o­W¯º»¡½ß¿ú¡A
§Ú¤£¸Ñ¡u«ç»ò·|½ß¿ú©O¡H¤£¬Û«H§Ú¶Ü¡H¡v
¦o»¡¬Û«H¡A¬Û«H§Ú3¦¸¡C
20¤¸±ÀÂ˦o·Q¤F¤@¤Uº¦¤W¥h¤~°l¡A
«á¨Ó¶^¯}¤ë½u´N½æ±¼¡A¦Aº¦¤W¥h¦A°l¡A
¶^¯}¤ë½u¤S½æ±¼¡A³sÄò¶R¤F3¦¸½ß¿ú¥X³õ¡C
³o¬O®Ú¾Ú¤ë§¡½u¾Þ§@ªº¯ÊÂI¡C
«á¨ÓÁp¹q³Ì°ªº¦¨ì175¤¸¡AÁÙ­ìªÑ»ù°ª¹F300¤¸¡C

The students asked if they should set a cut-loss point. I don't believe that setting a cut-loss point is a good strategy, as it can lead to losses through speculative trading. For instance, if we set a cut-loss point of 10%, but the stock often rebounds at 12%, we would miss out on potential gains. I wrote in my "Magic Book" about a recommendation I made to a senior lady to buy UMC (2303.TW) at NT$20 in 1992. I congratulated her when the stock price rose to NT$30. However, she was unhappy and said that she was losing money. I was puzzled and asked her how she could be losing money since she trusted and believed in me when I recommended the stock to her at NT$20. She explained that she had bought the stock, but then sold it when it broke the monthly moving average, only to buy it back three times at higher prices and ultimately losing money. This is an example of the disadvantage of monthly moving average trading. UMC later rose to a maximum of NT$175, and the adjusted stock price was as high as NT$300.



«Øij³æ¤@«ùªÑ³Ì¦h¶R2¥÷¡A
¤w¸gÁô§t¤F³]°±·lªº·N«ä¡A
§Y³o¤äªÑ²¼³Ì¦h½ß2¥÷ªº¿ú¡C

It is recommended to purchase a maximum of two shares of a single holding. The implication of setting a cut-loss point is that we are willing to lose up to two shares of the stock.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 17:06  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¦pªG«ùªÑ°÷¤À´²´N¤£¥²°±·l¡A
¦¹¸Ü¤@¥XÁ|®y¬ÒÅå¡A¥H¬°§Ú¦b¥´¨g»y¡A
¤£µM¡A¨ä¹ê³o¬O«Ü²³æªº¼Æ¾Ç¹D²z¦Ó¤w¡C
ªÑ²¼¶^ªº¸Ü³Ì¦h½ß 1 ­¿¡A
º¦«h¥iÁȦn´X­¿¡A
¥ÎÁȦn´X­¿¨ÓÀ±¸É½ß 1 ­¿ªº¡Aµ´¹ïºïºï¦³¾l¡C

If your investment portfolio is well-diversified, you may not need to use stop-loss measures. While this may be surprising to some, it is based on a simple mathematical principle. If a stock falls, you may only lose a small portion of your portfolio, but if it rises, you have the potential to earn several times your initial investment. The gains from earning several times can outweigh the losses from any small dips in the portfolio.



°ÝÃD¥X¦b­þ¸Ì¡H
¥X¦b¤j³¡¥÷¤H¨S¦³º¦¦n´X­¿ªºªÑ²¼¡A
¦]³£¦b¶]¨Ó¶]¥h¡C
½Ð¦hµ¹¤@ÂI®É¶¡¸òªÅ¶¡Åý«ùªÑ¥i¥Hº¦¦n´X­¿¡C
¥Î¤Úµá¯S¤èªk­nÁȦn´X­¿¬O«Ü®e©öªº¨Æ¡A
¦bÁ¿½Z5/21§Y¨q¹L¤@±iº¦­¿¹Ï¡Aº¦­¿ªÑ¤ñ¤ñ¬Ò¬O¡C

Where is the problem?
The problem lies in the fact that most people don't have stocks that have multiplied in value several times, as they are all engaged in speculative trading. You need to give your holdings more time and space to rise several times in value.
Using the Buffett method, it's easy to earn several times your initial investment.
In Lecture 5/21, I presented a chart showing my tenbaggers, or stocks that have increased in value tenfold.

½Ð¤£­nº¦20%¥ý½æ¤@½ë¡A®M¨c¤F´N¤£½æ¡A
³o¬O«Ü¦h¤Hªº¾Þ§@µ¦²¤¡A
¦p¦¹¾Þ§@¹w´Á³ø¹S²vªº´Á±æ­È¬O­tªº¡A
´Á±æ­È§Y¥­§¡¼Æ¡A
+20%©M-100%¥­§¡¬°­t¼Æ¡A
ªí¥Üª±¨ì³Ì«áª`©w½ß¿ú¥X³õ¡C

It is not advisable to sell stocks solely based on a 20% gain and hesitate to sell when experiencing losses. This investment strategy is used by many investors, but it ultimately results in a negative expected return rate. Expected value mean an average,  the expected return rate is calculated as the average of a 20% gain and a 100% loss. Therefore, following this approach will likely lead to losses.

¦³¤H¶RªÑ²¼³ßÅw­«©ã¤@¤ä¡A¤S©ã¿ù¡A
¨Ó¸ò§Ú­ú¶D°Ý§Ú«ç»ò¿ì¡H
³Q®M¨c¤F¡A§Úªº«Øij¥u¦³¤@­Ó¡A
´N¬O½Ð¥ý½æ¤@¥b¡A
³o¼Ë¦Ü¤Ö·|¹ï¤@¥b¡A¤~¦³Â½¨­ªº¾÷·|¡C

Some investors prefer to invest in a single stock, but they often choose the wrong one. They come to me in distress, asking what they should do.
If you find yourself in this situation, my suggestion is to sell half of your shares. This way, you can at least recoup some of your investment.



¦p¦¹¤£ºÞº¦¶^§Ú³£¨S¦³³d¥ô¡A
«á¨Óµo²{¡A¤£¹ï¡A¤£ºÞº¦¶^§Ú³£¦³¨Æ¡A
ªÑ²¼Ä~Äò¶^¦P¾Ç·|»¡¬°¤°»ò¥u¥s¥L½æ¤@¥b¡A
ªÑ²¼º¦¤F«h©Ç§Ú¬°¦ó­n¥s¥L½æ¤@¥b¡I
2015¦~º¦¨ì 1 ¸UÂI«Øij¤j®a´î½X¡A
¶^¨ì7,200¦P¾Ç®³³Ñ¤Uªº«ùªÑ¨Ó½è°Ý§Ú
¬°¦ó«ùªÑÁZ®Ä¨º»ò®t¡H
·íµM®t¡AÃÒ©ú 1 ¸UÂI¥s¤j®a½æ¬O¹ïªº°Ú¡C

So, I am not responsible for any rise or fall. Later, I realized that it's not true, I have a responsibility regardless of whether the stock goes up or down. If the stock continues to fall, the student will complain about why I only advised them to sell half. If the stock rises, they will blame me for telling them to sell half! In 2015, when the market rose to 10,000 points, I recommended everyone to reduce their holdings. Later, when the market fell to 7,200, a student questioned me about why the performance of the remaining stocks was so poor. "Of course, it's poor, which proves that advising everyone to sell at 10,000 points was the right decision!

§Ú¤Ï¹ï¶°¤¤«ùªÑ¡A¦]¥ô¦ó¤H³£·|¶R¿ùªÑ²¼¡A
³sªÑ¯«¤Úµá¯S¤]¤£¨Ò¥~¡A
Í¢¤£¬O°¸º¸¶R¿ùªÑ²¼¦Ó¬O±`±`¡C
2013¦~¶R¯à·½¥¼¨Ó±±ªÑ¤½¥qªº¤½¥q¶Å«á¨ÓÅܦ¨¾À¯È¡A
½ß¤F262»õ¤¸¥x¹ô(8.37»õ¬ü¤¸)¡C
2008¦~§ë¸ê·Rº¸Äõªº2®a»È¦æ¤]­Ë³¬¡C
­Y¦Ñ¤Ú§â¥þ³¡¸ê²£©ã¦b³o3®a¤½¥q¡A§Úªº¤Úµá¯S¯Z´N­n§ï¦W¤F¡C

I discourage making concentrated bets because even Warren Buffett is not immune to buying the wrong stock. In fact, he has done so on several occasions. For example, in 2013, he invested in corporate bonds of Energy Future Holdings, which ultimately became worthless and resulted in a loss of NT$26.2 billion (US$837 million). Additionally, two Irish banks that he invested in went bankrupt in 2008. If Mr. Buffett had put all his assets into these three companies, I would have to rename my Buffett class.

¦³¤H»¡¤Úµá¯S¤£¬O¥D±i«ùªÑ­n¶°¤¤¶Ü¡H
§Aªº«ùªÑ¨ì©³À³¸Ó¶°¤¤ÁÙ¬O¤À´²¡A
¤£¬O¬Ý¤Úµá¯S«ç»ò»¡¡A¦Ó¬O­n°Ý¦Û¤v¡A
ªÑ²¼³Q®M¨c¤F¦Ñ¤Ú¤£·|¨Ó±Ï§A¡C

Some people claim that Mr. Buffett advocates concentrated investing. However, whether you choose to concentrate or diversify your assets is not a decision to be based solely on what Buffett has said. Ultimately, it is up to you to make this decision and take responsibility for it. Remember that if you find yourself stuck in a particular stock, Mr. Buffett will not be there to bail you out.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 17:14  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¦b¨M©w­n¶°¤¤©Î¤À´²«ùªÑ¤§«e
¥²¶·¥ý§Ë²M·¡¤@­ÓÃöÁä¡G¶R¿ùªÑ¾÷²v¦h°ª¡H
¶R¤F¤§«á½ß20%¾÷²v¦h°ª¡H
®Ú¾Ú§Ú¦Û¤v©M¦P¾Çªº¸gÅç¡A¶R¿ùªÑ¾÷²v¤j·§´N¬O3¦¨¡C

Before deciding whether to concentrate or diversify holdings, it's crucial to first determine one key factor: the probability of making incorrect stock purchases. What is the likelihood of experiencing a 20% loss after making a purchase? Based on my own experience and that of my students, the likelihood of making an incorrect stock purchase is approximately 30%.

¶R¿ùªÑ©Ò¦³¤HÀË°Qªºµ²½×¤@©w¬O¥[±j¬ã¨s¡A
¦h«ô³X¤½¥q¡A²`¤J«õ±¸°]³ø¡A¼sªx¾\Ū°]¸g´CÅé¡A
¦A¦õ¥H§Þ³N¤ÀªRµ¥µ¥¡A
¤@­Ó´Ý§Ôªº¨Æ¹êÂ\¦b²´«e«o¬O
³o3¦¨¶R¿ùªÑ¾÷²vµLªk¤j´T­°§C¡A
³s§ë¸ê¤j¯«¤]¤@¼Ë¡A
¤Úµá¯S±`±`¶R¿ùªÑ¡A
©s®æ¥Í¥­³Ì«á¤@ÀÉ«ùªÑ§Y®â¦bªü¨½¤Ú¤Ú¤W¡C

The conclusion drawn from the review of everyone who has made incorrect stock purchases is always to intensify research. This involves visiting companies more frequently, delving deeper into financial statements, extensively reading financial media, and supplementing with technical analysis, among other strategies.

A harsh reality stares us in the face: the probability of making incorrect stock purchases, at 30%, cannot be significantly reduced. Even investment gurus face the same challenge. Warren Buffett frequently makes incorrect stock purchases, and Charlie Munger's final stock investment was mistakenly placed in BABA.

3¦¨¶R¿ù¾÷²v­Y¶°¤¤©ãª`¦b¤Ö¼Æ´X¤ä¡AÁZ®Ä®e©ö¤j¦n¤jÃa¡A
©ã¹ï¤F´N¤j¦n¡A¿ù¤F§Y¤jÃa¡A³Ì²×¥H¤jÃa¦¬³õ¡A
¥u­n³Ì«á¤@¦¸©ã¿ù´N«e¥\ºÉ±ó¡Aª`©w¯}²£¡C

When this 30% probability of making incorrect purchases is concentrated in a few stocks, performance can swing dramatically. Making the right choices leads to significant gains, while incorrect decisions result in substantial losses, ultimately leading to adverse outcomes. Just one misstep can undo all prior successes, potentially leading to bankruptcy

¦p¦ó­°§C¤j¦n¤jÃaªº°¾®t¡H
²Î­p¾Çªº°Ï¶¡¦ô­p´£¨Ñ¸Ñ¨Mªº¿ìªk¡C
¿ïªÑ´N¬O²Î­p¾Çªº©â¼Ë¡A
¿ï¶R¿ùªÑ¾÷²v3¦¨¡A§Y³Ó²v(p) 70%
¥i¬O©â¼Ë±o¨ìªºµ²ªG¤£·|¨C¦¸­è¦n70%¡A
¦Ó¬O¦³°¾®t¡A«Ü¥i¯à¸¨¦b¥¿­t2­Ó¼Ð·Ç®t¤§¤º¡C

How to Reduce Biases in Stock Selection?
Interval estimation in statistics provides a solution. Stock selection is akin to statistical sampling. If the probability of picking the wrong stock is 30%, indicating a success rate (p) of 70%, the results obtained from sampling won't always precisely match this 70%. Instead, there will be biases, often falling within plus or minus two standard deviations.

¤W¬qüÅ­z´«¦¨²Î­p³N»y¬°¡G
«H¤ß¤ô·Ç95%¤§«H¿à°Ï¶¡¬°¥¿­t2­Ó¼Ð·Ç®ts
[p - 2s, p + 2s] = [70% - 2s, 70% + 2s]
«H¤ß¤ô·Ç95%§Y¥Õ¸Ü¤åªº¡u«Ü¥i¯à¡v

The above can be translated into statistical terminology as follows:
The confidence interval at a 95% confidence level is ¡Ó2 standard deviations (s).
[p - 2s, p + 2s] = [70% - 2s, 70% + 2s]
A 95% confidence level is colloquially referred to as "highly likely."

¼Ð·Ç®t«ü¸ê®Æ¤§¶¡ªº¥­§¡¶ZÂ÷
¡×[px(1-p)/n]^0.5 = [70%x30%/n]^0.5
¼Ë¥»¼Æn

The standard deviation refers to the average distance between data points.
= [px(1-p)/n]^0.5 = [70%x30%/n]^0.5
Sample size n

n=1,  [0, 100%]
n=5,  [29%, 100%]
n=10,  [41%, 98%]
n=30,  [53%, 87%]
n=50,  [57%, 83%]
n=100, [61%, 79%]
n=200, [64%, 76%]
n=300, [65%, 75%]
n=500, [66%, 74%]
n=1,000, [67%, 73%]

n=1,  [0, 100%]¡A³æ©ã1¤ä³Ó²v«Ü¥i¯à¬°0©Î100%
n=5,  [29%, 100%]¡A¶È©ã5¤ä³Ó²v«Ü¥i¯à¸¨©ó29%¨ì100%¤§¶¡
¥H¤W§¡Åã¥ÜÁZ®Ä¤j¦n¤jÃa

When n=1, [0, 100%], there is a high likelihood that the winning rate for a single bet could be either 0% or 100%.
When n=5, [29%, 100%], with only five bets, the winning rate could likely range from 29% to 100%.
Both scenarios demonstrate significant variability in performance, ranging from very poor to very good.

n=100, [61%, 79%]¡A¶R¨ì100¤ä³Ó²v«Ü¥i¯à¸¨©ó61%¨ì79%¤§¶¡¡A
³Ó²v¦Ü¤Ö61%ºâ¬O¥i±µ¨ü¤ô·Ç¡A³o¬O§Ú«Øij¦Ü¤Ö¶R100¤ä«ùªÑªº­ì¦]

When n=100, [61%, 79%], buying 100 stocks could likely result in a winning rate falling between 61% and 79%.
A winning rate of at least 61% is considered acceptable, which is why I recommend purchasing at least 100 stocks.

¤W­z¦Ü¤Ö¶R100ÀÉ«ùªÑªº²Î­pÃÒ©ú¬Û·í­«­n¡A
¤À´²©Î¶°¤¤«ùªÑ¤£¦A¬O¨£¤¯¨£´¼¨S¦³µ²½×ªºÄ³ÃD¡A
¦Ó¬O¥²¶·¿í¦uªº·Ç«h¡C
¤]µ¹¨¬¤j®a«H¤ß¡A
«ùªÑ100¤ä¥H¤WÁZ®Ä¤jÃaªº¥i¯à©Ê§C¡A
¤£¥²¨C¤Ñºò±i¤¼¤¼Ãöª`ªÑ¥«¡A
¦³§ó¦h®É¶¡¥h¦Y³Üª±¼Ö

The above statistical evidence underscores the significance of holding a minimum of 100 stocks in your portfolio. Whether to diversify or concentrate one's holdings is no longer a debatable issue, but a guideline that must be followed. This also gives everyone confidence that the likelihood of poor performance with holding more than 100 stocks is low. There is no need to be nervous and pay close attention to the stock market every day, instead, we can spend more time enjoying life.

¶R¶W¹L100ÀÉ«ùªÑ¤£¥Î¾á¤ßÁZ®Ä·|¤£¦n¡A
¦]¬°§Ú­Ì¨Ã«D¶Ãºj¥´³¾¡A
¦Ó¬O±q¹w´Á¦~³ø¹S²v¤j©ó15%ªº¤J³ò¦W³æ¤¤¿ïªÑ¡C
100¤ä¥H¤W«ùªÑªºÁZ®Ä·|í©wÁͦV15%¦~³ø¹S²v¡C

Buying over 100 stocks, there's no need to worry about poor performance because we're not shooting blindly. Instead, we choose stocks from a list of candidates with expected annual returns greater than 15%. A portfolio holding over 100 stocks will tend to stabilize towards a 15% annual return rate.

«ùªÑ°÷¤À´²¤~¥i¯àªø´Á§ë¸ê¡A
¥x¿n¹q¦b¤jº¦¨ì2022¦~688¤¸¤§«e2003-11¦~ªø¹F9¦~¦b40-80¤¸°Ï¶¡½L¾ã¡A
³æ©ã¤@ÀÉ¥x¿n¹qªº§ë¸ê¤H¤Q¤ÀÃø¼õ¡C

Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio is crucial for long-term investments. Between 2003 and 2011, TSMC remained within the NT$40-80 range for nine years before surging to NT$688 in 2022. Investors who solely invested in TSMC during that period would have found it challenging to withstand such significant fluctuations.



³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 17:17  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
§Ú¶R¬üªÑ­º¥ý½T©w¦n«ùªÑ¤ñ¨Ò¡A
µM«á°÷«K©y´N¶R¤F¡A§¹¥þ¤£ºÞ·|¤£·|º¦¡C
¨ä¤¤ÁöµM¦³¨Ç­ÓªÑªí²{¤£²z·Q¡A
¥i¬OÁ`ÁZ®ÄÁÙ¤£¿ù¡C

I first determine the holding percentage for U.S. stocks that I buy, and then I buy them at a price that is cheap enough, regardless of whether the share price will rise or not. Although some of the stocks may be lagging behind, the overall performance is still good.

§Ú¬üªÑ½ß³ÌºGªº²H¤ôªe¨¦´¿¶^¤F90%¡A
¥¦¬O¤Ú¦èªºÅKÄq¬â¼t¡A¥@¬É³Ì¤j¡C
¤Ú¦èªÑ¸ò§Ú¤K¦r¤£¦X¡A2013¦~´N¶R¤FVALE¡A
·í®É¬ü°ê´º®ð¥¿­n´_µd¡AQE©|¥¼°h³õ¡A
¦¹®É¶R­ì®ÆªÑ´º®ð´`ÀôªÑ³Ì¾A·í¤F¡A¶R¦b°_º¦ÂI¡C
¤£®Æ«á¨Ó¬ü°ê´º®ð´_µd¤F¡A¨ä¥¦°ê®a«oµL°_¦â¡A
³oºØ´_µd¤£¦P½Õªº²{¶H¹L¥h¨u¨£¡A
ÅKÄq¬â»ù®æ¬Æ¦Ü³Ð¾ú¥v·s§C¡A
¥[¤W¤Ú¦è¹ô¶S­È5¦¨¡A
VALEªÑ»ù¶^¤F90%¡C

I suffered the biggest loss in VALE, which dropped by 90%. VALE is an iron ore company in Brazil and is the world's largest. Brazilian stocks do not suit me, but I bought VALE in 2013. At that time, the US economy was on the verge of recovery, and the Fed had stopped quantitative easing. Therefore, it was the best time to buy raw material stocks for cyclical growth. Unexpectedly, while the US economy later recovered, other countries did not improve. This kind of uneven recovery was rare in the past, and the price of iron ore even hit a record low. Furthermore, with the Brazilian currency depreciating by 50%, VALE's shares dropped by 90%.

¥J²Ó¤Ï¬Ù¡AVALE¬°´º®ð´`ÀôªÑ¡A
ªÑ»ùªi°Ê¤Ó¿E¯P¥O¤H©Ó¨ü¤£°_¡A
§ï¶R¤½¥Î¨Æ·~ªÑ´Ní·í¤F¡C
¦P¾Ç¤OÂËAESAY¡A¤Ú¦è¤ô§Qµo¹q¼t¡A
¤ô§Qµo¹q¤£¨ü¿U®Æ»ù®æ¼vÅT¡C
¶R¤F¤§«á«o¹J¦Ê¦~¤j°®§ò¡AªÑ»ù¶^¤F50%¡C
·Q»¡§Ô­@¤@¤U¦Ñ¤ÑÁ`¬O·|¤U«B¡A
ªGµM¤U«B¤F¡AªÑ»ù¤Ï¼u¦b±æ¡A
2016¦~2¤ëªÑ»ù³Ì§C®É¤½¥q«o«Å¥¬¤U¥«¡A
±j¨î§âªÑ²¼½æ¦b³Ì§CÂI¡C
ª±®aÁÙ·QÄ~Äòª±¡A²ø®a«o§âÄw½X¦¬¨«¤F¡C

After careful consideration, I realized that VALE is a highly cyclical stock, with a stock price that fluctuates greatly. In contrast, it is safer to invest in public utility stocks. One student strongly recommended AES Tiete SA (AESAY), a hydroelectric power plant in Brazil, which is not affected by fuel prices. However, after I bought it, the company experienced a hundred-year drought, causing its stock price to fall by 50%. But eventually, it rained and the stock price rebounded. Unfortunately, in February 2016, when the stock price was at its lowest, the company announced its delisting, forcing me to sell the stock at the lowest price. It's like a player wanting to continue playing, but the dealer takes away their chips.

2016¦~VALE±j«l±j¼u¡AªÑ»ùº¦¤F4­¿¡A
¬O§Ú¤â¤¤«ùªÑ¦³¥v¥H¨Ó¤@¦~¤ºº¦³Ì¦hªº¡A
¦Ó§Ú¤´½ß¤F50%¡A
¹w­pÁ`¦@­n¤Ï¼u9­¿¡A¤~·|¸Ñ®M¡A
²H¤ôªe¨¦¦¨¤F§Úªº¥Ã«í«ùªÑ¡C

In 2016, VALE had a strong rebound, and its stock price rose 4 times. It was the highest increase in my holdings within a year in history, yet I still lost 50%. It is estimated that it will require a total of 9 rebounds to mitigate my loss. VALE has become my eternal holding.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 17:21  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
§Úªº«ùªÑ§¹¾ã¤½§i¦b°Q½×°Ï©M³¡¸¨®æ¡A
µL¥ô¦ó«O¯d¡AÅwªï¬d¾\¡C
§Ú¬O¥xÆW°ß¤@´±§â«ùªÑ§¹¾ã¥Bªø´Á¤½¶}ªº¤H¡A
¤£¹³¤@¨Ç¤H¦nªº®É­Ô¤½¶}¡A¤£¦n®É«h¦¬°_¨Ó¡C

The complete list of my holdings can be found in the discussion forum and blog. I welcome you to review it without any reservations and feel free to consult with me if you have any questions. I am the only person in Taiwan who has dared to publicly disclose my complete list of holdings permanently. This is unlike some individuals who only disclose their holdings when their performance is good, and then keep it private when their performance is bad.



§Úªº«ùªÑ¦³¥ô¦ó¶R½æÅÜ°Ê·|¥ß§Y¤½§G¡A
¤£¶È¨Æ«á¤½§i¡A§ó³ßÅw¹w§i¡A
­Y¥Õ¤Ñ¤w¨M©w­n¶R¤°»òªÑ²¼¡A
·|§â³æ¤l¤U¦n¶K¦b°Q½×°Ï¡C
¹w§i¦³­Ó¦n³B¡A¥²·S¨Ó¦P¾Çªº¤@°}§åµû¡A
ÁÙ¥i¥H¦A«ä¦Ò¤@¤U¡C

I will make immediate announcements regarding any changes to my holdings. This will not only include an announcement after a transaction, but also a preview beforehand. If I decide which stocks to purchase on a given day, I will post my order in the discussion forum. This kind of notification is advantageous because it can lead to constructive criticism from readers, which will cause me to reconsider my decisions. Therefore, I am committed to being transparent about my stock holdings and welcome feedback from my peers.

§Úªº«ùªÑ±N¦p¦P·¡ªù¥@¬É¤@¼Ë¡A±µ¨üÄY®æºÊ·þ¡A
Åý¤j®a¨£ÃÒ¦p¦ó±q¤@¤ù­]®Eªø¦¨¤@®y¤j´ËªL¡C
¬°¦ó¤½¶}«ùªÑ¡H
¦]2012¦~¶}¤á®ÉºVÆr¥´¹ªÁܳܦP¾Ç¤@°_«e¶i¬üªÑ¡A
³o­Ó¤áÀY¬O¦b¤j®a¨£ÃÒ©M¯¬ºÖ¤U¶}ªº¡A
¤j®a¦b¦P¤@±ø°_¶]½u¥Xµo¡A³Ì¤½¥­¡C

My stock holdings will be strictly monitored, much like the Truman World program, to demonstrate how a small seedling can grow into a large forest. As for why I have decided to make my holdings public, it is because when I opened my account in 2012, I invited my students to invest with me in the US stock market. This account was opened with everyone's endorsement and blessings, and we all started from the same starting line, making it the most fair way to invest.



§Ú¬üªÑ¥´ºâ100¤ä¡A1 ¤ä¶R 1 ¸U¬ü¤¸¡A
¬°¦ó¨ì¬üªÑ·Q¤À´²¦¨100¤ä¡H
¦]2012¦~­è¶}¤á®É¬üªÑ¤wº¦°ª¡AµS¿Ý¬O§_¶i³õ¡H
«ö¬Õ¦Aªíµo²{«K©yªº¦n¤½¥q¤´µM«Ü¦h¡A§Y¨M©w¶R¶i¡C
¨ì¬üªÑ¦p¶iÄ_¤s¤@¼Ë¡A¥þ¥@¬É³Ì¦nªº¤½¥q³£¦b¨º¸Ì¡A
³£«Ü·Q¶R¡A¬°±±¨îÁʶR¼¤´N¤À´²¦¨100¤ä¡A
³o­Ó¨M©wªº½T¹F¨ì±±¨î«ùªÑ¤ñ¨Òªº®ÄªG¡C

I am planning to purchase 100 U.S. stocks, with an allocation of $10,000 for each stock. Why have I decided to diversify my investment into 100 different stocks? When I opened my account in 2012, the U.S. stock market was already on the rise, making me hesitant to enter the market. However, upon reviewing On's table, I found that there were still many undervalued companies with good potential, prompting me to buy. Investing in the U.S. stock market is like discovering a treasure mountain full of the world's best companies. It's tempting to want to invest in all of them, but in order to control my purchasing desires and maintain a balanced portfolio, I have chosen to diversify my investment into 100 different stocks. This decision has effectively helped me to control my shareholding ratios.



§Ú«Ü¼y©¯¶i¬üªÑ¤§ªì¤@¦A°ª³Û­n¦hºØªG¾ð¡A
§_«h2015¦~ª÷¿j¥|°êªÑ¥«¤j±Y½L¡A
ªÑ»ù¸y±Ù¦A¸y±ÙªÌ¤ñ¤ñ¬Ò¬O¡A
¦P¾Ç¥²©w¨£Ây¤ß³ß¤@Åu¦AÅu¡A±N²`³´ªdªh¡C

Fortunately, when I entered the US stock market, I repeatedly emphasized the importance of diversification. This proved to be a wise decision in 2015 when the BRIC stock markets crashed, causing many stocks to fall by half. Without diversification, my students may have been tempted to buy on dips and found themselves in trouble.

¦]¬°¶R¤Ó¦hªÑ²¼µLªk·ÓÅU¡A
¨C¦¸©u³ø¥XÄl·Q¬ã¨s¤@¤U¡A
¬Õ¦Aªí«ö¤F3¤ä´NºÎµÛ¤F¡A«á­±ªº³£¨S«ö¨ì¡A
¤U¤@©u°]³ø¥X¨Ó¤F¡A±q«á­±«ö¡A«ö¤F3¤ä¤Sµt¤F¡C
¨C¦¸³£µLªk¥þ³¡«ö§¹¡A¬JµM¦Û¤v¨S¿ìªk·ÓÅU¡A
¥u¦n¤½¥¬¥X¨Ó½Ð¦P¾ÇÀ°¦£·ÓÅU¡C

I have found it difficult to manage my portfolio due to owning too many stocks. Whenever a quarterly report is released, I feel the need to study it thoroughly. However, after examining the first three holdings on On's table, I often become too fatigued to review the remaining stocks. When the financial report for the next quarter was released, I started from the end and checked three stocks before feeling sleepy again. Realizing that I cannot properly manage all of my stocks alone, I have decided to share my list with fellow students to seek their help.

¦P¾Çªº½T¦bÀ°§Ú·ÓÅU¡A¦n´X¤äªÑ²¼¶Q¤F§Ú³£¤£ª¾¹D¡A
¬Ý°Q½×°Ï¦P¾Ç¶K¥X¨Ó¡uªÑ²¼¶Q¤F¬°¤°»òÁÙ¤£½æ¡H¡v
¤~¥h½æ¡C
¦³¤@¤äLLY¶Q¤F¦P¾Ç¶K¥X¨Ó¡A·í®ÉªÑ»ù¥¿¦b¼Q¥X¡A
·Q¦hµ¥´X¤Ñ¶Q¤F¥i¥H½æ¨ì§ó¶Q¡C
3¤Ñ«á°¨¤W¥t¤@¦ì¦P¾ÇÄò°Ý
¡u¶Q¤F¬°¦óÁÙ¤£½æ¡A­n¤£­nµ¹­Ó»¡ªk¡H¡v
¤£½æªÑ²¼ÁÙ­n¼g³ø§i¡A¥u¦n½æµ¹¦o¬Ý¡A
¤S½æ¦b³Ì°ªÂI¡C

My students are indeed taking good care of my holdings. I am not always aware of which stocks are becoming expensive. One day, while browsing through the forum, I came across a post from one of my students that read, "Why not sell the stock at an expensive price?" It made me realize that I had missed an opportunity to sell one of my stocks at a higher price. Without wasting any time, I sold it immediately. On another occasion, a student warned on the forum that LLY was expensive, and its stock price was skyrocketing. I decided to wait a few days before making any decision. After three days, another student asked me, "If it's expensive, why not sell it? Can you explain?" Since I didn't want to write a report for not selling the stock, I sold it to her. Thanks to my students' valuable insights and timely warnings, I was able to sell my stocks at the highest possible prices.

§Ú­Ì¤Úµá¯S¯Zªº§ë¸ê¬yµ{¡G
¦P¾Ç¦b°Q½×°Ï³ø¦Ñ®v©úµP¡A
§Ú¶R¤F¤§«á¦P¾Ç¦A¸Á¾Ö¦Ó¤W¡C

In our Buffett class, we have an investment standard operating procedure (SOP): students report their stock tips to the teacher on the discussion forum, and after I purchase the recommended stocks, my students flock to follow suit.

¡u¤£¬O¥ß§Y¦Ó¤W¡A
¦Ó¬Oµ¥¦Ñ®v¶R¤F¶^20%¦A¤W¡C¡v¡A
¤ñ¸ûºë©úªº¦P¾Ç³o¼Ë»¡¡C

The smarter students say that they don't rush to buy a stock immediately. Instead, they wait for the teacher to buy it, and then they observe if the stock price drops by 20%.



§Úªº¤èªk¤w±Ðµ¹¤j®a¡A
¶R¤°»òªÑ²¼¤]¤½§i©Pª¾¡A
¦P¾Ç¦A¾Ç¤£·|¡A¤£¯à©Ç§Ú¤F¡I
­Y¾Ç¤£·|´N¥Î«þ¨©ªº¡A
§Ú¤@¤ä¶R 1 ¸U¬üª÷¡A¦P¾Ç´N¶R10¸U¬üª÷¡A
´NÁȱo¤ñ§Ú¦h¤F¡C

I have shared my investment strategy with everyone and publicly disclosed the stocks I buy. If you are still unable to learn it, I cannot be held responsible. If you cannot learn, simply replicate my purchases. If I invest $10,000 in a stock and you invest $100,000 in the same stock, your profit will be greater than mine.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 18:18  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
­Y 1. ¹L¥h®i²{¹L°ªROEªº°O¿ý¡A
2. °t±o¥X²{ª÷¡A
3. ¤£·|Åܪº¤½¥q
´N´X¥G¥i¥H½T©w¯àºû«ù°ªROE¡A
Áa¨ÏÁÙ¦³¤Ö³\ªº¤£½T©w©Ê¡A
³z¹L¦hºØªG¾ð§âÅÜÃa­·ÀI­­¨î¦í¡C

If a company meets these three criteria:

A record of high ROE in the past
Consistently high dividend payouts
A durable business model
Then it is highly likely to maintain a high ROE in the future. However, even if there are some uncertainties, it's important to diversify investments in order to limit the risk of potential deterioration.

§Ú¶R¦è¯Z¤ú¹q«H(TEF)®ÉPeter¦P¾Ç¯S¦a¥´¹q¸Ü¨Ó¡A
¥L¦b¦Ë¬ì¤W¯Z¡A¥H¬°§Ú¹ï³o®a¤½¥q»á¦³¬ã¨s¡C
¡uTelefonica¬O¼Ú¬w«Ü¤jªº¤½¥q¡A
§Ú­Ì¤½¥q½æ¤F«Ü¦h²£«~µ¹¥¦¡C¡v¥L»¡¡A
§Ú¤~©úÁA¡u³á¡I¨º®a¤½¥q¥sTelefonica ¡v
¥L³Y²§¡uÔ£¡ã³s¤½¥q¦W¦r³£¤£¾å±o¡A§A«ç»ò¶RªÑ²¼ªº¡H¡v
§Ú­YµL¨ä¨Æ¦aµª¡u¬O°Ú¡A§Ú¶R«Ü¦h¬üªÑ¤½¥q¥sÔ£³£¤£ª¾¹D­ù¡A
¹³NGG¡BNNI¡A¨ì©³¬O­þ­ÓN¡H­þ­ÓG¡H­þ­Ó I¡H³£·d¤£²M·¡¡I¡v
¥L§ó¦YÅå¡u¨º§A«ç»ò¶RTEF¡H¡v

When I purchased TEF, my student Peter gave me a call specifically. He works at the Sinzhu Scientific Park and believed that I had conducted extensive research on the company. "Telefonica is a big European company. Our company has sold many products to it," he stated. I only then realized, "Oh! That company is called Telefonica." Peter was surprised and asked, "What? You don't even know the company name? How do you buy stocks?" I nonchalantly responded, "Yes, I've purchased a lot of US stocks, but I don't know their names. For instance, NGG and NNI, which 'N' and 'G' do they stand for? I can't seem to figure it out." He was even more astounded and asked, "Then how did you buy TEF?"

§Ú¹D¡u¬Ý°Q½×°Ï¦P¾Ç¦b°Q½×TEF¡A´N¥h«ö¬Õ¦Aªí¡A
ROE¤£¿ù¡A°t®§Ã­©w¡A³Ì¥D­n¬Ý¨ì³o¥y¸Ü
¥¦¬O¦è¯Z¤ú©M¸²µå¤ú³Ì¤jªº¹q«H¤½¥q¡A
§Ú´NÀ´¤F¡A¥¦´N¬O¤¤µØ¹q«H¡A´N¶R¤F¡I¡v
«e«á·Q¤£¨ì3¬íÄÁ¡A¤§«e®Ú¥»¥¼Å¥¹L³o®a¤½¥q¡I

I replied, "I read the discussions in the forum and checked On's table. TEF had a good ROE and stable dividends. The most important thing was this sentence: 'It is the largest telecommunications company in Spain and Portugal.' I knew it was similar to Chunghwa Telecom, so I bought it!" I made the decision in just 3 seconds. I had never heard of this company before!



§Ú¶RªÑ³£¬O¬Õ¦Aªí«ö¥X¨Ó¤@¬Ý¤£¿ù´N¶R¤F¡A
­Y«ö¥X¨Ó·kÀY§ì¦Õ·Q­Ó¦Ñ¥b¤Ñ¡A´N¤£¶R¤F¡C
¶R¤@¤äªÑ²¼¤£¥Î3¬íÄÁ¡A§Ú¥Ø«e¶R¤F120¤äªÑ¡A
¥@¬ÉÁÙ¦³¤°»òÁÈ¿ú¤èªk¤ñ³o­Ó²³æ¡C

I only invest in stocks that look good on On's table. If I have to spend a lot of time thinking about it, I won't buy it. It takes me less than 3 seconds to make a decision about whether to buy a stock. To date, I have invested in 120 stocks. Is there a simpler way to make money in the world?



¦P¾Ç°Ý¡uTEFªºROE¦b¤U·Æ¡A·|Ä~Äò©¹¤U¶Ü¡H¡v
§Ú¤£¾å±oTEFªºROE·|¤£·|Ä~Äò¤U­°¡A
¥u­n²£·~¦a¦ì¤£ÅÜ¡A´N¬Û«H¥i¥H°ªROE¡C
¤Ï¥¿¦hºØªG¾ð¡C

A student inquired, "TEF's ROE is declining, will it continue to do so?" I am uncertain if TEF's ROE will persistently decrease. However, I opine that if the industry situation remains unchanged, there is a possibility for ROE to improve. Nevertheless, diversification is crucial in any case.

½T©w¯àºû«ù°ªROE¡A
±µ¤U¨Ó¥u­n¦bªÑ»ù«K©y®É¶R¶i¡A
´N«OÃÒ§ë¸ê³ø¹S²v³Ì¤j¡C
¬JµM³ø¹S²v³Ì¤j¤F¡A½Ð°Ý°£¦¹¤§¥~
Áٻݪ¾¹D¤°»ò©O¡H

By maintaining a high ROE and buying stocks at a cheap price, you can ensure the highest return on your investment. What else is there to know when you have the highest return?

Peter¤£¸Ñ¡u§A¶R¦è¯Z¤ú¹q«H¡A
Ãø¹D¤£´¿¥´¹q¸Ü°Ýµo¨¥¤H¡A
¥h«ô³X¤½¥q¡A°Ñ¥[ªÑªF¤j·|¡A°lÂÜÀ禬... ?¡v
§Úµð¤F¤@Án¡u¦è¯Z¤ú¹q«H¡A¥´¹q¸Üµ¹µo¨¥¤H¡A
§Ú­n«ç»ò¸ò¥L»¡©O¡Hªü¿Õ¡ã¡v

Peter was confused and asked, "You bought Telefónica. Aren't you going to call the spokesperson, visit the company, attend the general meeting of shareholders, and track its revenue?" ¡§What~¡§, I replied, ¡§Call spokesperson of Telefonica. What should I tell him ? Ano~"



§Ú¶RNNI¤]ªá¤£¨ì3¬íÄÁ¡A¬Ý¨ì¦P¾Ç±ÀÂË¡A
¬d¤F¤@¤UWiki¦Ê¬ì¡A
¥¦¬O¬ü°ê²Ä¤G¤j¾Ç¥Í¶U´Ú¤½¥q´Nª¾¥¦¤£·|ÅÜ¡C
¬d¤F²Ä¤@¤jROE¤£¦p¥¦´N¶R¤F¡C

It took me less than 3 seconds to decide to buy NNI. After seeing the recommendation from my students, I checked Wikipedia and found out that it is the second largest student loan company in the US and is unlikely to change. Additionally, its ROE is better than that of the first university student loan company NAVI. Therefore, I decided to buy NNI.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 18:27  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
³o´X¦~¶}©l¬y¦æ¬Ý°]³ø¦b¿ïªÑ¡A
¥«­±¥X¤F´X¥»±Ð¤H¬Ý°]³ø¨Ó¿ïªÑªº®Ñ¡A
¦³½ìªº¬O¡A§@ªÌµ´¤Ö°Ó¾Ç°|²¦·~ªº¡A
¬Æ¦ÜÁÙ¦³°á¬ü³N¨t©Î¬Fªv¨tªº¡A³sªì·|³£¨S­×¹Lªº¡C
³o´X¦~¥xÆW°]¸g¥Xª©ªÀ¹ê¦b¯î­ð¡I
±Mªù§ä¤@¨Ç¥~¦æ¤H¥X®Ñ¡A
©Ò¥H§Ú°h¥ð¤§«á¤]­n¥X¤@¥»®Ñ±Ð¤j®a«ç»ò©Þ¤ú¡A
¤Ï¥¿­n¶Ã·d¤@°_¨Ó¶Ã·d¡I
¬ü³N¨t¥i¥H±Ð¤H®a¬Ý°]³ø¡A
§Ú²Î­pºÓ¤h·íµM¤]¯à±Ð©Þ¤ú¡I

In recent years, it has become popular to read financial reports when selecting stocks. Several books have been published to teach people how to read financial reports for stock selection. Interestingly, most of the authors are not business school graduates, with some even having backgrounds in Fine Arts or Political Science and no prior knowledge of basic accounting. The financial publishing industry in Taiwan has become absurd in recent years, with publishers hiring amateurs to write books. Therefore, after my retirement, I also plan to publish a book on how to extract teeth and join the trend of peculiar publications. Let's have some fun with it! If Art majors can teach people how to read financial reports for stock selection, then as a Master of Statistics, I can certainly teach tooth extraction with the same level of expertise.

³o¨Ç¤H±Ð¬Ý«Ü¦h«Ü¦h­Ó«ü¼Ð¡A
ªF©Ô¦è§è¡A¬ïÆwªþ·|¡I
¥L­Ì§â¬Ý°]³ø·í¦¨¿ïªÑªº¥þ³¡¡A
¨ä¹ê¥¦¥u¬O1/3ªº¤u§@¡C
¿ïªÑ»Ý­n°µ3¥ó¨Æ±¡¡G
²Ä¤@¬O¬Ý°]³ø¡A¬Ý¹L¥hROE¬O§_í©w©M¬O§_°t±o²{ª÷¡C
²Ä¤GÀË©w¤½¥q·|¤£·|ÅÜ¡A
²Ä¤T«h¬°ºâ¶Q²Q»ù¡C
²Ä¤@¸ò²Ä¤TÂI«ö¬Õ¦Aªí§Y¥i¸Ñ¨M¡A
°ß¤@»Ý­n¤H¬°§PÂ_ªº¬O¤½¥q·|¤£·|ÅÜ¡H
³o¤£¬O¬Ý°]³ø©Î°Ý¤½¥q¥iª¾ªº¡A
­n¦Û¤v·Q¤~¦æ¡C­nªáªø¹F3¬íÄÁªº®É¶¡·Q¡C

These non-experts discuss numerous indicators and have a tendency to go off-topic by making improbable connections. They mistakenly believe that scrutinizing financial reports is the sole determinant for stock selection, whereas in actuality, it only constitutes one-third of the process. Stock selection necessitates three actions: firstly, scrutinizing the financial report to ensure the stability of past ROE and adequate cash flow; secondly, evaluating the company's susceptibility to changes; and thirdly, determining whether the stock is overpriced or underpriced. The first and third criteria can be effortlessly evaluated by referring to On's table. However, the only factor that requires human judgment is assessing the company's susceptibility to changes. This cannot be accomplished solely by reviewing the financial report or consulting with the company. Rather, you must evaluate it yourself, which only requires three seconds of careful thought.

¸ò§Ú¤@¼Ë§â¾ã­Ó¹D²z·Q³q´Nª¾¹D§ë¸ê¯uªº´N³o»ò²³æ¡I
§Ú­Ì³£¦³¤@­Ó¹Ú´K¥H¨D§ë¸êªº³Ì°ª¹Ò¬É¡G
1. ²³æ¡A²³æ¨ìÅý¤H»{¬°³o­Ó¯Z¬O¥®¥®¯Z¡A
¦³¤H§å§Ú³£¤£·|¤ÀªR¡A¥u·|«ö¬Õ¦Aªí¡C
§Ú»¡¡u¹ï¹ï¹ï¡A¥»¯Z¥¿¬O¥®¥®¯Z¡A´N¬O¤£­n¤ÀªR¡A
¥u­n«ö¬Õ¦Aªí´N¦n¤F¡A³o¥¿¬O¥»¯Zªº©v¦®¡I¡v
2. ÁZ®Ä¦n¡A§Ú§ë¸êÁZ®Ä¯u¤£¿à¡C
3. ¨S¦³À£¤O¡A¥­±`¤£¥Î¾Þ¤ß¡A§Y«K¶R¿ù´X¤äªÑ²¼¤]µL§«
§Ú¶Rªº§ë¸ê²Õ¦X¥R¥÷®i²{¥H¤W¯S©Ê

Understanding investing can be simple, just like it is for me. We all have a dream of achieving the highest level of investment, which includes:

1. Simple, so simple that people think this class is like a kindergarten. Some people criticized me for not being able to analyze and only rely on On's table. I said, "Yes, that's right. This class is like a kindergarten. We don't need to analyze, just use On's table. That's exactly what this class is all about!"
2. Good performance - my investment portfolio has yielded impressive results.
3. No pressure - even if you make a few mistakes and purchase the wrong stocks, there's no need to worry on a regular basis.
My investment portfolio fully demonstrates the aforementioned characteristics.



³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 18:32  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¨Ó¬Ý¤@¤U¤Úµá¯Sªº«ùªÑ¬O§_²Å¦X§Ú©ÒÁ¿ªº­ì«h¡C

²Ä¤@®a¬O§BªL¹y¥_¤èÅK¸ô¤½¥q(BNI)¡A¥_¬ü²Ä¤G¤jÅK¸ô¤½¥q¡C
2009¦~¦Ñ¤Úªá¤F440»õ¬ü¤¸¨ÖÁʤF³o®a¤½¥q¡A
440»õ¬ü¤¸·í¦~¸ò¥x¿n¹qªº¥«­È®t¤£¦h¤j¡C
¤@­Ó¤H§â¥x¿n¹q¶R¤U¨Ó¡A³o¬O§ë¸êªº³Ì°ª¹Ò¬É¡I
§Ú­Ó¤H¤]¦³¤@­Ó¤p¤p¤ßÄ@¡A
Á`¦³¤@¤Ñ¤]­n§â¥x¿n¹q¶R¤U¨Ó¡A
µM«á§â±i©¾¿Ñ¥s¨Ó°Ý¡u§A²{¦b¦b·F¹À¡H¡v
¦P¾Ç´£¿ô§Ú¡u­n§ÖÂI¡A±i©¾¿Ñ¤£·|µ¥§A¡I¡v

Let's examine if Mr. Buffett's holdings align with the investment principles I mentioned.

Firstly, there's Burlington Northern Railway Company (BNI), which is the second-largest railway company in North America. In 2009, Buffett acquired the company for a whopping $44 billion, which is the same scale as the market value of TSMC in the same year. Acquiring TSMC alone would be the pinnacle of investment! I have a small wish to acquire TSMC on my own one day and summon Morris Chang to ask him, "What are you doing now?" However, my student reminded me that I better hurry up since Morris Chang won't wait for me!




§BªL¹yROE16%¡A¬Ý¨ì³oºØROE³£Ä±±o¥xÅK¡B°ªÅKÀ³¸Ó¥h¼²Àð¡C
¤Úµá¯S¶R¦b100¤¸¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v7%¡A
Í¢¬O¦bªÑ»ù¶^¨ì¹w´Á³ø¹S²v15%®É¥h¸ò§BªL¹y½Í¨ÖÁÊ¡A
­n§â¾ã®a¤½¥q¶R¤U¨Ó±o¥I¥X·¸»ù¡A§Y¹w´Á³ø¹S²v7%¡C
³o¬O440»õ¬ü¤¸ªº§ë¸ê®×¡A¥x¹ô1.3¥ü¡A
ÅK¸ô¬O¸ôÅv¤@¶}¥¼¨Ó100¦~³£¿W®a¦b¥Î¡A
«OÃÒ¨C¦~³£¦³7%ªº³ø¹S¡A³o¬O«Ü¦n§ë¸ê®×¡C
§Ú­Ìªº³Ò°·«O°òª÷­Y¥h¶R³o®aÅK¸ôªÑ´N¤£·|¯}²£¤F¡A
³Ò«O°òª÷¾Þ½LÁZ®Ä¦~¥­§¡¶È2%¡C

Burlington boasts an ROE of 16%, making Taiwan Railway and High Speed Railway appear inferior. Mr. Buffett acquired Burlington at $100 per share with an expected return of 7%. As the stock price declined and the expected return rose to 15%, he initiated discussions of mergers and acquisitions with Burlington. To acquire the entire company, he had to pay a premium resulting in an expected return of 7%. This $44 billion investment equals NT$1.3 trillion. The railway holds a monopoly for the next 100 years, ensuring a 7% return each year, creating an excellent investment opportunity. If our labor and health insurance funds had invested in this railway stock, they would not have gone bankrupt. The average annual performance of labor insurance fund traders is a mere 2%.

¾Ç¤Úµá¯S­n¾Ç¨ì®a¡A¬Ý¨ìÍ¢¶R¥_¬ü²Ä¤G¤jÅK¸ô¤½¥q¡A
§Ú´N¥h¶R²Ä¤T¤jÅK¸ô¤½¥qCSX¡AROE21%ÆZí©wªº¡C
¶R¦b22.8¬ü¤¸¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v14%¡A
§ë¸ê 1 ¸U¬ü¤¸¡A¥¦½T«O§Ú³o 1 ¸U¬ü¤¸¦b¥¼¨Ó100¦~
¨C¦~14%³ø¹S²v¡C

Following in the footsteps of Buffett, I observed his acquisition of the second largest railroad company in North America and decided to purchase CSX, the third largest railway company with a stable ROE of 21%. I bought it at a price of $22.8 per share, with an expected return of 14%. With my investment of $10,000, I can expect to receive a 14% annual return for the next 100 years.



2015¦~§Ú¤S¶R¤FUNP¡AÁp¦X¤Ó¥­¬vÅK¸ô¡A
¥_¬ü³Ì¤jÅK¸ô¤½¥q¡AROE24%¡C
¶R¦b87.2¬üª÷¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v13%¡C
¤Úµá¯S¥u¶R²Ä¤G¤j¡A§Ú§â²Ä¤@¤j©M²Ä¤T¤j¥þ¶R¤U¨Ó¡C

I purchased shares of UNP, which stands for Union Pacific Railroad, in 2015. It is the largest railway company in North America with an ROE of 24%. I acquired the stock at a price of $87.2, with an expected return of 13%. In contrast, Buffett only acquired shares of the second largest company. Additionally, I also invested in CSX, the third largest railway company.



³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 18:39  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
³¶±_¬O·ç¤h­¹«~¤½¥q¡A¼Ú¬w¥«­È³Ì¤jªº¤½¥q¡A
³¶±_¥¤¯»§Ú­Ì³£³Ü¹L¡AROE 35%¡A¬Õ¦A²v¶È19%¡A
¼Ð·Çªº¤Úµá¯S·§©ÀªÑ¡C
¦Ñ¤Ú¶R¦b47.6¬ü¤¸¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v20%¡A¬Û·í«K©y¡C

Nestlé (NSRGY) is a Swiss food company and currently holds the position of the largest company in Europe in terms of market value. Most of us have consumed Nestle milk powder at some point, and the company has a solid ROE of 35% along with a Profit Margin (PR%) of 19%, making it a standard Buffett stock. Warren Buffett purchased Nestlé shares at a price of $47.6 and expected a return of 20%, which is considered quite cheap.



³°³Õ¼í(LZ)¡A¥þ²y³Ì¤j¼í·Æªo²K¥[¾¯»s³y°Ó¡A
ROE 33%¡A¬Õ¦A²v«Ü§C¶È6%¡C
¤Úµá¯S¶R¦b135¬ü¤¸¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v15%¡A
¦Ñ¤Ú³£µ¥«K©y¤~¶R¡C

Lubrizol (LZ) is the world's largest manufacturer of lubricant additives. While the company boasts a strong ROE of 33%, its PR% is comparatively low, standing at only 6%. Warren Buffett purchased LZ shares at $135 with an expected return of 15%, and chose to wait for a cheaper price before making any further investments.



´I°ê»È¦æ(WFC)¬O¤Úµá¯S²Ä¤G¤j«ùªÑ¡A
Í¢¤@ª½¦b¶R¡A¬°¦óÍ¢³o»ò³ßÅw³o®a¤½¥q¡H
2008¦~¦¸¶U­·¼É®ÉROE 6%¤´ºû«ùÀò§Q¡A
¨ä¥¦»È¦æ«hÄY­«Á«·l¡A
Åã¥Ü´I°ê»È¦æ¸ê²£«~½è¬Û·í¤£¿ù¡C
¤W¤@¦¸¦Ñ¤Ú¥[½X¦b25¬ü¤¸¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v14%¡A
Í¢¶Rªº»ù®æ¸ò¬Õ¦Aªíºâªº«K©y»ù®t¤£¦h¡C

Wells Fargo (WFC) is Warren Buffett's second-largest holding, and he has been actively buying shares. The reason for his strong interest in the company could be attributed to its strong performance during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, where it managed to remain profitable despite other banks suffering heavy losses. This indicates that the asset quality of Wells Fargo Bank is quite good. The last time Mr. Buffett negotiated a deal for Wells Fargo, the expected return was 14%, and he managed to purchase the shares for a price that was considered cheap by On's table.



¯S©öÁÊ(TSCDY)­^°ê³Ì¤j¶W¥«¡B¥@¬É²Ä¤T¤j¡C
2012¦~«eROEÁÙ¤£¿ù¦³18%¡A
¤Úµá¯S¶R¦b3.3­^Âé¡A¹w´Á³ø¹S²v18%¡C
¦Ñ¤Ú¶R¤F¤§«áªÑ»ù¶^¤F14%¡A§Ú§Y¸õ¶i¥h¶R¡A
·Q¸òªÑ¯«¶R¤@¼ËªºªÑ²¼À³¸Ó¤£·|¦³¨Æ¡A
µ²ªG³ÌºG®É½ß¤F60%¡C
­ì¦]¼w°ê·G»ù¶W¥«Ävª§¡AÀò§Q°I°h¡C
¤Úµá¯S«Ü¦­¶]±¼¤F¡A«o¨S³qª¾§Ú¡A³o³Ã¥ë¹ê¦b¤£°÷·N«ä¡C

Tesco (TSCDY) is the largest supermarket chain in the UK and the third-largest in the world. Prior to 2012, the company had a solid ROE of 18%. Warren Buffett purchased the stock at 3.3 pounds, with an expected return of 18%. However, after his purchase, the stock price fell by 14%, which prompted me to buy the stock as well, thinking that it was a wise decision to follow the "stock god." Unfortunately, the profits of the company were impacted by competition from Germany's low-cost supermarkets, which led to a decline in profits. As a result, I suffered losses of up to 60%. To make matters worse, Buffett sold his shares early without notifying me, which was disappointing.



¦ã§J´Ë¬ü§·(XOM)¥@¬É³Ì¤jªº¥Ûªo¤½¥q¡A
ROEí©wºû«ù¦b20%¥H¤W¡A¤ñ¥x¶ì¦n¡C
³o®a¬O§Ú¥ý¶R¡A¦Ñ¤Ú¤~¸òµÛ¶R¡A
§ÚÃhºÃÍ¢¦³¦b¬Ý§Ú­Ìªº°Q½×°Ï¡C

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is the world's largest oil company with a ROE that has consistently remained above 20%, which is better than Formosa Plastics. I purchased the stock first, and then Mr. Buffett followed. It is possible that he might be following our discussion forum.



¥H¤W¬O¤Úµá¯Sªº«ùªÑ¡A
¦Ñ¤Úªº«ùªÑ§Ú­Ì¤]·|·Q¶R¡A
Í¢¶Rªº»ù®æ¸ò¬Õ¦Aªí²Q»ù®t¤£¦h¡A
§Úªº«ùªÑ¦Ñ¤Ú¤]·|¶R¡A
¨¬¨£§Úªº¤èªk¸ò¤Úµá¯S«Ü±µªñ¡C

The above are Mr. Buffett's holdings, and we like to invest in the same stocks. The price at which he purchased these stocks is similar to the cheap price listed in On's table. Interestingly, he also bought some of the stocks that I own, indicating that my investment approach is quite similar to that of Mr. Buffett.

¬Ý¤F¦Ñ¤Úªº«ùªÑ¡A½Ð°Ý¦³¦ó·P·Q¡H
³£¬O¦Õ¼ô¯à¸ÔªºÀsÀYªÑ¡A
ÅK¸ô¤½¥q¡B³¶±_¥¤¯»¡B´I°ê»È¦æ¡A³£¦Ü¤ÖÅ¥¹L¡C
¦P¾Ç·|¤£·|¬ðµM¦³­Ó½Ä°Ê¡A
·Q¥´¹q¸Ü¸ò¤Úµá¯S³ø¦W·íÍ¢ªº±µ¯Z¤H¡H
¶R³oºØ¤½¥q½Ö¤£·|¡H
¦Ó¥BÁÙ¥i¥H¸ò¦Ñ¤Ú»¡¤£¥Îªá5¤ÀÄÁ¡A
¥u­n15¬í§Y¥i¡A¦]¦³¬Õ¦Aªí¡C
©¡®É­ÉÍ¢«ö¤ñ¸û§Ö¡C

After reviewing Mr. Buffett's holdings, how do you feel? These are all well-known, leading stocks, such as railway companies, Nestle milk powder, and Wells Fargo Bank, which most people have at least heard of. Does this make you feel excited and eager to call Buffett to be his successor? We all know the kind of companies he likes. Moreover, you can tell Buffett that he doesn't need to take 5 minutes to make a decision; if he checks On's table, it will only take him 15 seconds.

¦P¾Ç¦³µL»®µMµo²{¥þ¥@¬ÉªºªÑ²¼³£·|ª±¤F¡I
²Ä¤@°ó¸ò¦U¦ì«OÃÒ¡A
µ¹§Ú2¤Ñ¡A´N¥i¥H§â±zÅܦ¨¤Úµá¯S¡A
Åý±z¥þ¥@¬ÉªºªÑ²¼³£·|ª±¡A
²{¦b¬O¤£¬O¹F¦¨¤F¡C
¤£¶È¥xªÑ¡A¬ü¡B¤¤¡B­^¡B·ç¤hµ¥ªÑ³£·|ª±¤F¡A
¬Õ¦Aªí«ö±o¥X¨Óªº49°êªÑ²¼³£·|ª±¤F¡C

Do you now feel confident in your ability to invest in stocks around the world? In the first lesson, I promised that in two days, you would be able to learn how to invest like Buffett and play stocks all over the world. Now, I have fulfilled that promise. Thanks to On's table, you can now invest in stocks not only in Taiwan but also in the US, China, Britain, Switzerland, and 49 other countries.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 19:12  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
Á¿½Z 13/21¡GIRR
Lecture 13/21 IRR





¿ïªÑ¦³¤T¤j±ø¥ó¡G
²Ä¤@ROE­ní©w¡A
²Ä¤G­n¯à°t±o¥X²{ª÷¡A
³Ìªñ¤@¦~¬Õ¦A²v¤p©ó80%¡A
³Ìªñ3¦~°t®§²v¤j©ó40%¡C
²Ä¤T¤j±ø¥ó¤£·|Åܪº¤½¥q¡A
²£«~¤£·|ÅÜ¡B
²£·~¦a¦ì¤£·|ÅܪºÀsÀYªÑ¡A
·Q3¬íÄÁ´N²z¸Ñªº¤½¥q¡A
À´±o¬D¤£·|Åܪº¤½¥q¤Úµá¯S¯«¥\¤j·§´N½m¦¨¤F¡C

There are three primary criteria for selecting stocks. Firstly, the company's ROE must remain stable. Secondly, the company should have high dividends, which means that the dividend payout ratio in the last three years should be over 40%, and the current dividend should be less than 80% of last year's PR%. The third and final criterion is that the company should have durability. Its products should be irreplaceable, and it should be a leading company in an industry with a stable status. Ideally, the company should be easily understandable within three seconds. If you can identify a durable company, you possess Buffett's investment skills.

¿ï¦nªÑ¤§«á±µ¤U¨Ó´Nµ¥«K©y¶R¡A©ê¨ì¶Q¤~½æ¡A
©³¤U¤¶²Ð¶Q²Q»ù«ç»òºâ¡C
ªÑ»ù¤£¬O¶Ãº¦ªº¡AªuµÛROE©Ò©w¸qªº»ù­È½u¤W¤UÂ\°Ê¡A
©Ò¿×»ù­È½u¬O¤¤¶¡¨º±ø½u¡A¤SºÙ¦X²z»ù¡A
§Y¸ò¥¿±`®É´Á©w¦s§Q²v6.7%¤@¼Ë³ø¹Sªº»ù®æ¡A
¦]°µ¥ô¦ó§ë¸ê³£¬O¸ò©w¦s§Q²v°µ¤ñ¸û¡C
ªÑ²¼¤£¬O¶R¦b¦X²z»ù¡A¦]ªÑ²¼¦³­·ÀI­n¨Dªº³ø¹S¸û°ª¡A
¥²¶·¤ñ©w¦s6.7%°ª1­¿¥H¤W¤~·|¶R¡A§Y15%¥H¤W¤~°÷«K©y¡C

Once you have selected stocks, you should wait to purchase them at a cheap price and then sell them when they become more expensive. The following explains how to determine what is considered cheap and expensive. Stock prices do not fluctuate randomly. Instead, they move up and down along the value line, which is determined by the company's ROE. The value line is the middle line, also known as the fair price, which is equivalent to the 1-year time deposit rate of 6.7% during normal periods. When considering investments, it is important to compare them with the interest rate. Stocks are riskier than deposits and require a higher discount. Therefore, stocks should not be purchased at the fair price. To be considered cheap enough, the price should be at least 15% higher than the 1-year time deposit rate of 6.7%.



¦P¾Ç°Ý¶Q²Q»ùÀ³¸òÀH§Q²v½Õ¾ã¶Ü¡H
²z½×¤W­n¡A¦ý¤@³s°Ê§YÅܦ¨­n¥h¹w´ú§Q²v¤É­°¡H
³o¬O¤£¥iª¾ªº¡A
§Ú2013¦~¶RVALE©MAESAY®É¡A
¨Ã¤£ª¾¤Ú¦è§Q²v3¦~«á·|±q7%¼@¤É¨ì15%¡C

Students may ask whether the cheap and expensive prices should be adjusted with interest rates. Theoretically, yes. However, once the prices are linked to interest rates, we would have to predict the rise and fall of interest rates, which is unpredictable. For example, when I bought VALE and AESAY in 2013, I had no way of knowing that interest rates in Brazil would rise sharply from 7% to 15% in three years.

¦Ó¥B¦P¤@¥«³õ¡A¦UÃþªÑ¥»¯q¤ñ®t¶Z¤]«Ü¤j¡A
¦p¬üªÑ2016¦~ªìAMZN¥»¯q¤ñ176­¿¡A¥ÛªoªÑ«o¶È2­¿¡C
­Y­n¸òµÛ§Q²v½Õ¾ã¥»¯q¤ñ¦p¦ó½Õ©O¡H

Furthermore, there is a significant difference in the PER among various sectors in the same market. For instance, in early 2016, the PER of Amazon.com (AMZN) was 176 times, while the oil industry's PER was only 2 times. It is not clear how to adjust the PER based on interest rates.

¤ñ¸û¥i¦æªº¿ìªk¬O¥H¥¿±`®É´Á§Q²v6.7%¬°·Ç¡A
¦A·f°tGDP¨Ó¥[´î¡A
GDP²z½×¦bÁ¿½Z16/21¸Ô­z¡C

A more practical approach is to base the calculation on a 6.7% interest rate during a normal period and adjust it according to the GDP. The GDP theorem is explained in detail in Lecture 16/21.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6284
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 19:23  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
Á¿½Z4/21´¿ÃÒ©ú¥u­n°ªROE¡A«K©y¶R¡A³ø¹S²v´N·|³Ì¤j¡A
²{¦b´N¥ÎROE©M¶R¶i»ù¨Óºâ³ø¹S²v¡A
ROE¥Ñ±`§Q¡A¸g±`²b§Qºâ±o¡A

During Lecture 4/21, it was demonstrated that the greatest investment return can be achieved when both the Return on ROE is high and the purchase price is cheap. We can calculate the expected return by using the ROE and purchase price. The ROE is determined by recurring net profit.

±`§Q = ²b§Q ¡V ¤@¦¸©Ê§Q¯q

recurring net = net profit - one-time profits

¤@¦¸©Ê§Q¯q¦p½æ¤g¦a©M½æªÑ²¼
¤º¦b»ù­ÈÁô§t¸g±`ªº·§©À¡A¨C¦~³£µo¥Íªº§Q¯q¤~ºâ¼Æ¡C
¦³¨Ç¤½¥q¦bÀò§Q¤£¨Î®É·|½æ¤g¦a¨Ó¬ü¤Æ±b­±¡A¥²¶·¦©°£¡C

One-time profits include gains from the disposal of land and stocks. The concept of intrinsic value implies that only profits that occur consistently each year are considered. Some companies may sell land to improve their financial statements when they experience poor profits, but these gains must be deducted as they are not recurring.

¤@¦¸©Ê§Q¯q¤~¶·¦©±¼¡A¦Ó«D·~¥~(§ë¸ê¦¬¤J)¡A
ªi§J®L¡BÂE®ü¡B¥x¹F¹q¡B¥¨¤j³£¬O§ë¸ê¦¬¤J¤ñ²v°ªªº¤½¥q¡A
­Y§ë¸ê¦¬¤J¤ñ­«°ª´N¤£¦n³o¨Ç°¶¤j¤½¥q³£·|³Q±Æ°£±¼¡C

Non-operating profits, such as investment income, will not be deducted as only one-time profits are considered. Companies such as Berkshire Hathaway, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Delta Electronics, and Giant Manufacturing, which have high investment income, would be eliminated if investment income were deducted. These are all great companies.

ÂE®ü¡B¥¨¤j¬°¦ó§ë¸ê¦¬¤J¦h¡H
¦]¬°³z¹LÂà§ë¸ê¥h®ü¥~³]¼t¡A¥¦­Ìªº§ë¸ê¦¬¤J¤´ÄÝ¥»·~¡C
¹ï©ó¤½¥qªºÀò§Q§Ú­Ì¦b·Nªº¬O¦³µL¸g±`©Ê¡A
¦Ü©ó¨Ó¦Û§ë¸ê¦¬¤JµL©Ò¿×¡A
¦Ó°]³ø¤£³z©ú¬Ý¦X¨Ö³øªí§Y¥i¡C

Hon Hai Precision Industry and Giant Manufacturing have high investment income because they establish overseas factories through subsidiaries. Their investment income is considered part of their operating business. When evaluating a company's profit, what matters is whether it is recurring, including investment income. If you suspect that a company's financial report is not transparent, it is recommended to review the consolidated statement.

²o¯A¨ì²b§Qªº«ü¼Ð¡AROE¡B¬Õ¦A²v¡BEPS¡B¤j©ó5»õ¤¸
³£§ï¥Î±`§Q¨Óºâ¡C
ª÷¿ÄªÑ¥u¦©½æ¸ê²£¡A¦]§ë¸êÄÝ¥»·~¡C

Indicators related to net profit, such as ROE, PR%, EPS, and net profit over NT$500 million, will be adjusted to reflect recurring net profit. Financial stocks only deduct gains from the disposal of assets, as gains from the sale of stocks are considered part of their operating business.

±`§QªºÆ[©À·½¦Û§Ú¦b©É´IÃÒ¨é·í¬ã¨s­û®É¾Ç¨ìªºÆ[©À¡A
restated earnings(­«½s²b§Q) §Y±`§Q
reported earnings(³øªí²b§Q) ¬°µ|«á²b§Q
restated = reported - ³B¤À§Q±o
°ê¥~¤]¦³recurring earningsÃþ¦üªºÁ¿ªk¡C

The concept of recurring net profit originated from my experience as an analyst at Jardine Fleming. Restated earnings are equivalent to recurring net profit, while reported earnings refer to net profit. Restated earnings are calculated by subtracting disposal gains from reported earnings. Similar terminology, such as recurring earnings, is used in other foreign securities firms.

¤@¦¸©Ê§Q¯q¥]¬A
1. ²§±`§Q¯q
2. ²§±`µ|ÃB
3. ¼É¼WÆJ´î

One-time profits include
1. Unusual income
2. Tax abnormalities
3. Sudden increase and decrease



1. ²§±`§Q¯q
¥xªÑ : ¤g¦a+§ë¸ê+¨ä¥L+¯²ª÷+¸É§U+°±·~
¤g¦a = [³B¤À¤£°Ê²£¡B¼t©Ð¤Î³]³Æ§Q¯q©Î·l¥Í]
§ë¸ê = [³B¤À§ë¸ê§Q¯q©Î·l¥¢]
¨ä¥L = [¨ä¥L¦¬¤J-¨ä¥L] - [¨ä¥L§Q¯q¤Î·l¥¢-¨ä¥L] + [¨ä¥LÀç·~¦¬¤J-¨ä¥L] - [¨ä¥L·~¥~¦¬¤J(¤ä¥X)]
¯²ª÷ = [¯²ª÷¦¬¤J] + [·~¥~¯²ª÷¦¬¤J(¤ä¥X)]
¸É§U = [¸É§U¦¬¯q]
°±·~ = [°±·~³æ¦ì·l¯q]
·PÁ®}¼sºÖ®á«ü»{¤W­z·|­p¬ì¥Ø

1. Unusual income
Taiwan Stocks: Land + Investment + Others + Rent + Subsidy + Discountinued Operations
Land = [Disposal gains or loss on real property, plant and equipment]
Investment = [Disposal gains or loss on investment]
Other = [Other income-other]-[Other income and losses-other] + [Other operating income-other]-[Other non-operating income (expense)]
Rent = [Rental Income] + [Non-operating Rental Income (Expenses)]
Subsidy = [subsidy income]
Discountinued Operations = [Income or Loss from Discountinued Operations]
Thanks to Guangfu Siu for identifying the above accounting accounts

¬üªÑ¡G[unusual expense]¡A¥]§t
½æ¤g¦a©M½æªÑ²¼¡B°±·~·l¥¢¡B°ÓÅA¡B«ùªÑº¦¶^
°ÓÅA¡G4Q18 KHC´£¦C154»õ¬ü¤¸°ÓÅA´î·l
«ùªÑº¦¶^¡G4Q18 ªi§J®L»{¦C354»õ¬ü¤¸«ùªÑ¶^»ù·l¥¢

US stocks: [unusual expense] including
Sale of land and stocks, Income or Loss from Discountinued Operations, goodwill, capital gain or loss on stock holdings
Goodwill: 4Q18 KHC withdraws $15.4 billion in goodwill impairment
Capital gain or loss on shareholding: 4Q18 Berkshire recognizes $35.4 billion of capital loss in holdings

´äªÑ¡G[¯S®í¶µ¥Ø]+[¥X°â¸ê²£]
¤¤ªÑ¡G[«D¬y动资产处¸m损¥¢]+[¨ä¤¤:«D¬y动资产处¸m损¥¢]

Hong Kong Stocks: [Special Items] + [Sale of Assets]
China Stocks: [loss on disposal of non-current assets] + [including: loss on disposal of non-current assets]

2.  µ|²v²§±`¤]·|¼vÅT±`§Qªº±À¦ô¡A
4Q17 ¤t´¶µ|§ï³y¦¨ªi§J®LROE¥Ñ6%¼É¼W¬°16%¡A
¸Ó²{¶H«D¬üªÑ¿W¦³¡A¨ä¥¦°ê®a¥çµM¡A¦pRBGLY¡A
¦]¦¹±`§Q¶·¦A¦©°£²§±`µ|ÃB¡G

2. Abnormal tax rates can also impact the estimation of recurring net profit. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2017, Trump's tax reform caused Berkshire Hathaway's ROE to increase from 6% to 16%. This situation is not unique to US stocks, as seen in other countries like Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY). Therefore, abnormal tax must be deducted from recurring net profit.

·íµ|²v¤j©ó¬Û¾Fµ|²v1.2­¿©Î¤p©ó0.8­¿®É¡A
²§±`µ|ÃB¡×²b§Q - µ|«ex(1-¬Û¾Fµ|²v)

Abnormal tax is calculated when the tax rate is 1.2 times greater or 0.8 times less than the adjacent tax rate.
Abnormal tax amount = net profit - pre-tax x (1-adjacent tax rate)

¬Û¾Fµ|²v±Äpercentile(¬Ûªñ3¦~µ|²v, 0.5)¡A
¬Û¾Fµ|²v¤W¤U­­­q¬°35%©M0¡A§_«h¨ú¤W´Á¬Û¾Fµ|²v¡C
µ|«eÁ«·l®É¡A¤£½Õ¾ã²§±`µ|ÃB

The adjacent tax rate is determined by using a percentile of the tax rate for the previous three years (0.5). If the tax rate exceeds the upper limit of 35% or falls below the lower limit of 0%, the adjacent tax rate from the previous period will be used instead. If the company incurs a loss before tax, the abnormal tax amount is not adjusted.



3. ¤@¦¸©Ê§Q¯q°£¦C¦b²§±`§Q¯q¤§¥~¡A
¤]Âæb¦U·|­p¬ì¥Ø¡A¾É¦Ü±`§Q¼É¼W©ÎÆJ´î¡A¨Ò¦p¡G
2018/12 UL ¥X°â·~°È§Q¯q¦C©óÀç§Q¡A¾É­PÀç§Q¼É¼W
2018/12 FMS ·~¥~¦¬¤J¼É¼W
2018/9 NWL ±`§Q¼É¼W¬d¤£¥X­ì¦]

3. One-time income is considered unusual income and can be hidden in various accounts, leading to sudden increases or decreases in recurring profits. For example, in December 2018, Unilever's (UL) sale of business benefits was recorded in their operating profit, resulting in a surge in operating profit. Similarly, in December 2018, Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) reported a surge in non-operating income. In September 2018, Newell Brands (NWL) experienced a sudden surge in recurring net profit, for which no clear explanation was found.

ÆJ´î¡G±`§Q§â³Ì®t´«¦¨¦¸®t
¹L¥h5¦~±`§Q§â³Ì®t´«¦¨¦¸®t¡A¥H¨¾¤@¦~ÆJ´î°fÂà²Q¶Q
¦¸®t = percentile(«e5¦~±`§Q, 0.3)

In case of a sudden decrease in recurring profit, the worst result is replaced with the second worst result from the past five years. This is done to avoid expensive stocks turning from cheap to expensive due to a sharp decline in profit in a given year.
The second worst recurring profit = percentile (the first 5 years of recurring profit, 0.3)

¼É¼WA¡GÀ禬¥¼¤j¼W¡A¦ý±`§Q²v¼É¼W
­Y¸Ó¦~À禬¤p©ó¥h¦~À禬x1.15
¥B±`§Q²v¤j©ópercentile(«e5¦~±`§Q²v, 0.7)x1.3
«h¼É¼W = ±`§Q - À禬 x percentile(«e5¦~±`§Q²v, 0.7)
±`§Q²v =±`§Q / À禬

·PÁ³¯©[¨}¦P¾Ç«ü¾É

In case of a sudden increase in recurring profit despite a lack of significant sales growth, the following criteria are used:
If the sales for the year are less than 1.15 times the sales of the previous year,
and recurring profit margin is greater than percentile (the first 5 years recurring profit margin, 0.7) x 1.3
then sudden increase = recurring profit - sales x percentile (the first 5 years of recurring profit margin, 0.7)
recurring profit margin = recurring profit/sales

Special thanks to Curry for providing guidance.

¼É¼WB¡G±`§Q¼É¼W3­¿¡A§â³Ì¨Î´«¦¨¦¸¨Î
¦¸¨Î = percentile(«e5¦~±`§Q, 0.7)

·PÁ³¯©[¨}¦P¾Ç«ü¾É

If the recurring profit has increased by three times, then the best recurring profit will be replaced with the second best
Second best of recurring profit = percentile (the first 5 years of recurring profit, 0.7)

Thanks Curry for instruction.



¦³¤F±`§Q¤§«á¡A §Y¥i¥Î«e5¦~±`§Q¨Ó±Àºâ¹w´Á±`§Q
¥u¨ú«e5¦~¦]¦~¥N§ó¤[»·ªºÀò§Q¹ïªÑ»ù¼vÅT¤£¤j
¨ä¤¤¤µ¦~¬°¹L¥h4©u

After obtaining the recurring profits, we will use the recurring profits of the previous five years to calculate the expected recurring profits. We only use the profits of the first five years, as profits beyond five years have little impact on stock prices. For this year, we will use the profits of the past four quarters.

«e3¦~±`§Q¡G
   ¨úpercentile(²Ä¤@¦~:²Ä¤T¦~, 0.7)
   ¨úpercentile(²Ä¤@¦~:²Ä¤T¦~, 0.3)
«á2¦~±`§Q±Ä²³æ¥­§¡

Recurring profits for the first 3 years:
   Take percentile (first year: third year, 0.7)
   Take percentile (first year: third year, 0.3)
Simple average for the last 2 years

«e­z¼É¼WÆJ´î¥u§½­­¦b«á2¦~±`§Q¡A«e3¦~«h¤£¥Î¡A
¦]¨úpercentile(«e3¦~±`§Q, 0.7)©Mpercentile(«e3¦~±`§Q, 0.3)
§Y¤w§â«e3¦~±`§Q¤Ó°ª¤Ó§CªÌ­×°Å±¼¤F¡C

The sudden increase and decrease mentioned earlier only apply to the recurring profits in the last 2 years and not the first 3 years.
The calculation ercentile (the first 3 years of recurring profits, 0.7) and percentile (the first 3 years of recurring profits, 0.3) involves using the recurring profits from the first 3 years and eliminating those that are outside this range.

·í±`§Q©¹¤W¡A«á2¦~¥­§¡¤j©ópercentile(«e3¦~, 0.7)®É¡A
¹w´Á±`§Q = 0.3xpercentile(«e3¦~, 0.7) + 0.7x«á2¦~¥­§¡

When recurring profit grow, the average of the last 2 years is greater than percentile (the first 3 years, 0.7),
expected recurring profit = 0.3xpercentile (the first 3 years, 0.7) + 0.7x the average of the last 2 years

·í±`§Q©¹¤U¡A«á2¦~¥­§¡¤p©ó0.8xpercentile(«e3¦~, 0.3)®É¡A
¹w´Á±`§Q = 0.3xpercentile(«e3¦~, 0.3) + 0.7x«á2¦~¥­§¡

When recurring profit decline, the average of the last 2 years is less than percentile (the first 3 years, 0.3),
expected recurring profit = 0.3xpercentile (the first 3 years, 0.3) + 0.7x the average of the last 2 years

·í±`§Q«ù¥­®É¡A
¹w´Á±`§Q = 0.55xpercentile(«e3¦~, 0.3) + 0.45x«á2¦~¥­§¡

When recurring profit is flat,
expected recurring profit = 0.55xpercentile (the first 3 years, 0.3) + 0.45x the average of the last 2 years

¹w´ÁROE = ¹w´Á±`§Q / ¥h¦~²b­È

¥Î¹w´Á±`§Q¨Ó¨D¹w´ÁROE¡A¦Ó«Dª½±µ®³¹L¥h5¦~ROE¨Ó¥­§¡¡A
¦]¬°ROE¥­§¡ªk·í²b­ÈÅܰʤj®É·|¥¢·Ç¡A
¦p¶R¦^®wÂêѩM¤jÃB²{ª÷¼W¸ê¡C

Expected ROE = expected recurring profit / last year's net assets

Instead of directly averaging the ROEs of the past 5 years, we use the expected recurring profit to calculate the expected ROE. This is because the average ROE method can be inaccurate when there are significant changes in net assets, such as a buyback of treasury shares or a large amount of rights issue.

¥Î¹w´Á±`§Q¨D±oªº¹w´ÁROE¡A
«D«ü¤½¥q¥¼¨ÓÀò§Q¶È¬°¹w´Á±`§Q¡A¦Ó¬O±N«ö¹w´ÁROE¶i¦æ¡A
ÀHµÛ²b­È¼W¥[¥¼¨ÓÀò§Q¤´·|¦¨ªø¡C

Obtaining expected ROE through expected recurring profit does not imply that the company's future profits will be limited to expected recurring profit. Instead, they will be achieved through the expected ROE. As net assets increase, future profits will continue to grow.

­Yı±o¤º©w¹w´Á±`§Q¤£¦X²z¥i¤â°Ê½Õ¾ã¡A
¦p´º®ð´`ÀôªÑ¦b´º®ð¨¦©³©Î¤½¥q¤@®ÉÅܤ£¦n®É¡A
½Ð¦Û¦æ±N¥¿±`®É´Á±`§Q¥N¤J¡C

If you find the default expected recurring profit to be unreasonable, you can manually adjust it. For instance, during the bottom of the business cycle of cyclical stocks or when the company's performance deteriorates for a while, you can substitute the recurring profit during a normal period by yourself.



³»³¡