mikeon88
管理員
UID 1
精華
0
積分 0
帖子 15453
閱讀權限 255
註冊 2007-1-14 用戶註冊天數 6306
用戶失蹤天數 1
118.169.162.107
|
|
第三、看作假帳或掏空?
看應收周轉率、存貨周轉率、現金流量
(包括營業活動現金或自由現金流量)…
都不如看配息率息與盈再率有用。
Third, is there a risk of accounting fraud or embezzlement?
Checking the accounts receivable turnover rate, inventory turnover rate, and cash flow (including operating cash flow or free cash flow) is not as useful as monitoring the dividend payout ratio and PR%.
同學來踢館!同學看了別人的書來跟我們討教,
他說自由現金流量這個指標也可以用來檢定地雷股,
自由現金流量為負表示公司現金周轉會有問題。
After reading other books, a student challenged me and claimed that free cash flow could be utilized to verify risky stocks. He argued that if a company has negative free cash flow, it indicates that there could be issues with the company's cash flow.
什麼是自由現金流量?
現金流量表有3個活動:營業活動、投資活動、融資活動。
自由現金流量只拿前面2個活動來相加,營業活動+投資活動。
這個例子,薪水10萬元,去買了12萬元股票,
自由現金流量即10萬元-12萬元= -2萬元,
表示這家公司會周轉不靈。
What is free cash flow? Free cash flow is the sum of a company's operating activities and investment activities, which are reported in the cash flow statement. It excludes financing activities.
For instance, if a person earned a salary of $100,000 and invested $120,000 in stocks, the free cash flow would be calculated as $100,000 - $120,000 = -$20,000, indicating a cash shortage for the person.
自由現金流量跟盈再率是兩個非常相像的公式。
自由現金流量拿2個活動來相加,
盈再率則拿2個活動相除,投資活動÷營業活動。
同樣例子,買了12萬元股票÷薪水10萬元=盈再率120%。
Free cash flow and PR% are two formulas that are similar in nature. However, they differ in their approach. Free cash flow is the sum of two activities, whereas PR% is the ratio of investment activities to business activities.
Using the same example, if a person invests $120,000 in stocks and earns a salary of $100,000, the PR% would be calculated as $120,000 ÷ $100,000 = 120%.
自由現金流量不足就是盈再率大於100%,
盈再率100%意指薪水10萬元去買10萬元股票,
剛剛好夠用還不會有事。
When a company has insufficient free cash flow, it means that it has negative free cash flow, which could be greater than 100% PR%. A PR% of 100% indicates that a person has invested an amount equal to their salary in stocks. It's a balanced situation where the cash flow remains unchanged.
薪水10萬元買了20萬元股票,差距 1 倍了才可能周轉不靈,
即盈再率大於200%才會有事。
自由現金流量這個理論是錯的,錯在結論下錯,
不是小於0,要小於 -1 倍才會有事。
If an individual invests $200,000 in stocks with a salary of $100,000, and the resulting PR% is over 200%, it could lead to a cash shortage. This indicates that the conclusion of the free cash flow theory would be incorrect. In reality, free cash flow must be less than negative one times the salary to indicate a cash flow problem.
同學跟我拗「自由現金流量小於 0,不是指一年就會有事,
而是要長期才會有事。」
問他長期要多久?同學說8年。
我說「好!我們就來8年巴巴看。」
剛剛的例子,薪水10萬元去買了12萬元股票,
用資產負債表寫出來就是這樣:
資(12萬長投)=債(2萬)+值(10萬)。
每年都不足2萬元,同學說8年,我給它100年,夠長了吧,
資產負債表變成這樣:
資(1,200萬長投)=債(200萬)+值(1,000萬),
後面各加2個零而已,負債比才17%,
公司會不會有事呢?不會吧!
即便自由現金流量100年都不足,公司一樣不會有事。
A classmate argued with me, "If free cash flow is less than zero, it doesn't mean there will be a problem in just one year, but it will take a long time." I asked him how long is long-term, and he said eight years. So I said, "Okay! Let's wait for eight years and see." In the previous example, a salary of $100,000 was used to purchase $120,000 worth of stocks. It can be represented on the balance sheet as: Assets ($120,000 in long-term investment) = Liabilities ($20,000) + Equity ($100,000). With an annual shortage of less than $20,000, my classmate said eight years, so I extended it to 100 years. The balance sheet would then look like this: Assets ($12,000,000 in long-term investment) = Liabilities ($2,000,000) + Equity ($10,000,000), with two additional zeroes added. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 17%. Would the company be in trouble? I don't think so! Even if free cash flow is insufficient for 100 years, the company should still be fine.
自由現金流量為負,只表示負債會增加。
負債增加不表示負債比會惡化,
這個例子負債從2萬元增加到200萬元,可是負債比都僅17%。
A negative free cash flow indicates an increase in liabilities, but it does not necessarily mean that the debt ratio will worsen. In the given example, although the debt increased from $20,000 to $2 million, the debt ratio was only 17%. This means that even if the free cash flow remained negative for 100 years, the company would still not face any issues.
自由現金流量長期為負的公司很多,而且都是偉大的公司,
波克夏、台積電、鴻海就是,股價已漲了上萬倍。
這3家偉大的公司主張自由現金流量的人竟然認為會倒,
實在可笑。
同學哪天有機會跟老巴吃午餐時請務必幫我問一個問題
「波克夏會不會倒?」
或者坐火車碰到張忠謀時問他「台積電會不會周轉不靈?」
小謀必定翻你白眼。
Many great companies have experienced negative free cash flow for extended periods of time, including Berkshire Hathaway, TSMC, and Hon Hai, all of which have seen their stock prices increase tens of thousands of times. It is ridiculous to think that these three great companies would fall because of negative free cash flow. If you had the chance to have lunch with Mr. Buffett, you could ask him the question, "Will Berkshire fall?" Similarly, if you ask Morris Chang on a train, "Will TSMC have cash flow problems?" He will definitely roll his eyes at you.
相反的,TEF、GPS、TPR三家公司這幾年FCF皆正而穩定,
但股價大跌80%。
On the contrary, the three companies TEF, GPS, and TPR have all had positive and stable free cash flow in recent years. However, their stock prices have plummeted by 80%.
FCF為正股價仍可能大跌;
為負也不致負債比惡化,
顯見自由現金流量這個指標沒用。
A company can have a positive FCF, yet experience a sharp decline in its stock price. Conversely, a negative FCF may not necessarily lead to a deterioration in the company's debt ratio. Hence, the free cash flow indicator may not always be a reliable measure of a company's financial health.
這個同學又繼續拗,
同學問問題的步驟就3個:一嗆聲,二拗,三人身攻擊。
一開始只是有個想法未成熟就來嗆聲「你不對,我才對」。
被駁倒死不承認,二拗,
再被駁倒,三就人身攻擊「你不懂啦,沒有料!」
The classmate continued to argue using three steps: making a loud statement, stubbornly arguing, and attacking others personally. Initially, the classmate had an immature idea and made a loud statement, and refused to admit their mistake even when proven wrong. Then, they persisted in arguing stubbornly, and when that didn't work, they resorted to personal attacks, such as saying "You don't understand anything" or "You are ignorant!"
這位同學拗「不僅看自由現金流量,還要加看營業活動現金流量」,
加看營業活動一樣沒用!
從講稿9/21的例子來看,
雅新、SAY在出事之前的營業活動流量都是正數。
博達營業活動的應收帳款、存貨科目都可造假,
顯示仍然是無用的指標。
The student argued, "We should not only focus on free cash flow but also consider the cash flow from operating activities." However, adding operational activities is pointless. As evidenced by lecture 9/21, companies like Yahsin and SAY had positive cash flow from operating activities before their scandals were exposed. Additionally, companies like Procom can manipulate their accounts receivables and inventory accounts. Therefore, operational activities are not a reliable indicator.
|
|
|