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mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2017-12-31 22:52  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
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1. ¬Ý¹L¥h5¦~ROE¬O§_í©w¥B¤j©ó15%
2. °t±o¥X²{ª÷ (¬Õ¦A²v¤p©ó80%+°t®§²v¤j©ó40%)
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5. ¦ÑÁó­n¦³¸Û«H (¸³ºÊ«ùªÑ¦Ü¤Ö10%)

The six criteria mentioned by Mr. Buffett highlight the characteristics of a company that can maintain a high return on equity over a prolonged period. However, his language may be somewhat ambiguous, so I have rephrased it as Michael On's five criteria for stock selection:
1. Check if the return on equity (ROE) has been stable and above 15% over the past 5 years.
2. Look for high dividends, with a profit reinvestment rate below 80% and a dividend payout ratio above 40%.
3. Durable business model
4. Large purchase, including at least NT$500 million in net earnings and a minimum of two years of public listing or over-the-counter trading.
5. Integrity management, specifically by checking if the board of directors holds a minimum of 10% of the company's shares.

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Criteria 1, 2, and 3 are the primary considerations and must be strictly adhered to. Criteria 4 and 5 are secondary and may be taken into account at the discretion of the individual, but one must be aware of the potential consequences of such considerations.

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You don't have to memorize these five criteria, as they are already recorded in On's table. If all the conditions are met, an "OK" will appear. If there is no "OK", it indicates that some of the conditions are not met and will be highlighted in red.



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Taiwantaxi (2640.TW) has not met the "OK" criteria in the form, indicating that certain standards have not been achieved. These unmet standards include:
The expected return of 2% is lower than the minimum requirement of 15%.
The payout ratio in the last three years was less than 40% in one year.
The recurring net profit was less than NT$500 million in one year.
It has been less than 2 years since its listing or over-the-counter trading.
Due to these four unsatisfied criteria, the "OK" designation does not appear.

To make it easier for those with weaker color perception, an underline can be added below the red number to clearly indicate that the condition has not been met. This underline is equivalent to the red number, representing a non-compliant condition.

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Let's examine the fourth and fifth criteria. The fourth principle states that the company must be of significant size, which aligns with the first criterion of the six proposed by Buffett for large purchases. To meet this requirement, the company must meet the following conditions:

It must have been listed or traded OTC for a minimum of 2 years.
It must have a net profit exceeding NT$500 million.

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³o¨Ç¤½¥q¥i¯à¬O¶XÀò§Q³Ì¨Î®É¨Ó¤W¥«¡A
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¶R¨ì³oºØªÑ²¼¸ò½ò¨ì¦a¹pªÑ¨S¨â¼Ë¡C

Many IPOs experience a drop in profits two years after going public for several reasons. Some companies may go public during a period of high profits, while others may employ accounting techniques such as window-dressing to meet listing criteria, only to revert to their previous state afterwards. Grand Hall (8941.TW) and E-Ton (3452.TW) are among the companies that fall into this category.

When it first listed, E-Ton was a stock market leader with a high stock price. Now, its stock price has fallen to less than a tenth of what it was then. Investing in this stock is similar to taking a gamble on a potentially hazardous security.

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These types of companies are not easily recognizable from their financial reports, as the profit records are authentic, not false. To prevent this, the solution is simple: wait for two years after its listing before evaluating it as a potential investment.

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The second criterion for investing is to only purchase companies with net profits exceeding NT$500 million. Small companies are often not stable and have a higher risk of failure. It's advised to wait until the company "matures" before investing. Mr. Buffett requires a pre-tax net profit of $75 million as a condition for investing in US stocks. For Taiwanese stocks, I suggest a minimum net profit after tax of NT$500 million.



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mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2017-12-31 23:05  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
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¤£¹L¸Û«H¨â­Ó¦r«D±`©â¶H¡A¦p¦ó¿Å¶q¡H
§Ú«ô³X¹LµL¼Æ¤W¥«Âd¤½¥q¡A±q¥¼¨£¹L¦³¦ÑÁó·|»¡¥L¤½¥q¤£¦nªº¡A
¦A«ç»òÄꪺ¤½¥q¤]·|»¡¤U¥b¦~´N±NÂàÁ«¬°¬Õ¡C
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§Ú³]©w¸³ºÊ«ùªÑ¦Ü¤Ö10%¥H¤W¤~¥s°µ¦ÑÁ󦳸۫H¡C

The fifth investment criterion is the integrity of the company's leadership. Buffett attaches great importance to honesty. However, assessing integrity can be difficult, as it is a vague term. In my experience, I have not seen company executives admit to their company's weaknesses. Despite poor performance, they may still assert that they will turn things around in the second half of the year. Given that all executives may inflate their company's success, I require board members to own a minimum of 10% of the company's shares as evidence of their honesty and dedication.

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The requirement for board members to hold a minimum of 10% of the company's shares is not considered a strict standard, as many companies have 7-8 directors on their board. Significant shareholders generally hold more than 1% of the company's shares in their own name. This low standard leaves room for interpretation. Some companies may argue that their leaders have established a trust to avoid estate taxes, and the shares are registered in the trust's name. While this is a valid justification, it's not guaranteed that all shares will be transferred to the trust. For example, Terry Guo, CEO of Hon Hai Group, has a trust, but still holds at least 12% of the shares in his own name, which is seen as a display of honesty.



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±i©¾¿Ñ¥u¬O¤@­Ó¸g²z¤H¦Ó¤w¡C
¤j³¡¥÷IC³]­p¤½¥q¸³ºÊ«ùªÑ³£¨S¦³¶W¹L10%¡A³o¬LµM­Y´¦¤F¡A
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You will observe the following patterns after analyzing On's table: Board members of high-quality companies tend to hold a larger share of the company's stock, such as the 35% held by the board members of China Steel Chemical (1723.TW) or the 66% held by the board members of TTET Union (1232.TW). On the other hand, board members of lower quality companies typically hold less than 10% of the shares. However, there are exceptions to this pattern. For instance, some well-regarded companies have board members who own only 10% or less of the shares, such as TSMC and Delta Electronics. These companies, however, are not considered Taiwanese companies as the majority of their shares are owned by foreign investors. In this case, Morris Chang is just a manager. Furthermore, most IC design companies have board members who own less than 10% of the shares. This is because the IC design industry is constantly changing and even the CEO may not want to register too many shares in their name, making it easier to sell their shares if the company's profits decline.



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With regards to integrity, we will focus on one specific aspect. Spin-offs, which involve the separation of a department into a separate company, have become popular in recent years. However, the parent company's stake in the spin-off is frequently less than 60%, indicating a dilution of integrity.

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ÀH«K¥á­Ó§º´ÂºÐ¤l¥X¨Ó©ç½æ´N­È¼Æ10»õ¤¸¡A
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English:The company U spun off several subsidiary companies M, N, and F, which are all successful but U only holds 20% of the shares. Despite a prolonged decline in U's stock price for over 20 years, causing substantial losses for shareholders, Mr. C's wealth remains intact. He is renowned for having the largest collection of antiques among the top ten collectors in China and recently sold a Song Dynasty dish at auction for a value of NT$1 billion. Is it really confusing ?

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There are numerous bosses engaging in unethical behavior. Among them, Aunt W of V company stands out as particularly absurd. She was once the wealthiest individual in Taiwan as the primary shareholder of Company H. However, Company H is a subsidiary of the struggling and loss-making V company. Despite this, Aunt W has managed to maintain her status as the richest person.

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Furthermore, CC company was spun off from C company, and CW company was spun off from WL company. In these spin-off events, the parent company only retains 20-30% of the shares.

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On the other hand, which company boss is considered to be honest? Hon Hai holds 73% of Foxconn's shares. When Foxconn was listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, its stock price saw a substantial increase. During this time, Hon Hai's stock price also rose due to its ownership of 73% of Foxconn's shares.

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In conclusion, to assess the integrity of company executives, two factors are considered:
1. Board members must have a minimum ownership of 10% of the company's shares.
2. After a spin-off, the parent company's shareholding ratio must not be below 60%.

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mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 06:27  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
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Lecture 4/21 Cheap and fine



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Before delving deeper into the Buffett theory, let's first review the basic accounting concepts. Stock selection is primarily based on financial reports.

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Financial reports have two statements, with the first being the balance sheet. This document records a company's assets, such as desks, projectors, and computers. The funds used to acquire these assets come from two sources: borrowed money, which is listed as a liability, and the company's own funds, recorded as equity. The balance sheet follows a basic formula where assets are equal to liabilities plus equity.



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Current assets are part of a company's assets and are the easiest to convert to cash. Cash itself is the first of these assets, followed by short-term investments such as stocks and bonds that are expected to be sold within a year. The company's cash balance often includes these short-term investments as they can be easily converted to cash. The third type is accounts receivable, which becomes cash once payment is received from customers. Lastly, there is inventory, which transforms into cash when sold.

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There are two other types of assets that are less liquid. The first is long-term investments, like stocks and bonds, which are typically held for more than a year, with subsidiary stocks being a common example. The second, which is the most difficult to convert to cash, is fixed assets, such as machinery, equipment, factories, and land. Capital expenditures refer to the funds used for expanding production and comprise both fixed assets and long-term investments. For companies like Hon Hai, which have established overseas factories through subsidiaries, the calculation of their capital expenditures involves the sum of both fixed assets and long-term investments.

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The equity on the right side of the balance sheet represents a company's own funds, which are divided into two accounts: capital and reserves. Capital is calculated by multiplying the number of shares by a set par value, such as NT$10. The number of shares represents the company's ownership divided into smaller portions.

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The reserves account in equity includes two sub-accounts. The first is retained earnings, which represents money that the company has kept from its profits. The second is capital surplus, which encompasses additional paid-in capital, increases in the value of assets, and goodwill generated from mergers. For example, if a company raises funds through the issuance of new shares, selling each stock for NT$60, NT$10 would be recorded as capital and NT$50 as capital surplus.

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Equity is also referred to as net assets, net worth, book value, or own capital, and all these terms mean the same thing. ROE, or return on equity, is the return that a company earns on the equity it holds.



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³o¤@°¦µ§½æ10¤¸¡AÀ禬°O¬°10¤¸¡A
»sµ§»Ý¶R§÷®Æ¨Ó°µ¡Aª½±µ¬ÛÃö°O¬°¦¨¥»¡A
¶R¾÷¾¹³]³Æ¨Ó°µ¡A¨C¦~´£¦Cªº§é¬O¦¨¥»¡C
¥Í²£½u¤W­û¤uªºÁ~¤ô¤]¬O¦¨¥»¡C
¶O¥Î«h¬O¶¡±µ¬ÛÃö¡A¦æ¾P¶O¥Î¡B¬ãµo¶O¥Î³£¬O¡C

The second report referred to as the income statement records the company's sources of income. The sources of income come from both operating and non-operating businesses. Operating profit is calculated by subtracting costs and expenses from sales. In manufacturing, sales are recorded, while in service industries, revenue is recorded. Costs refer to expenses directly related to the product, while expenses are indirect expenses such as marketing and R&D expenses. For example, if a pen is sold for $10, the sales are recorded as $10. The cost of materials used in the production of the pen is recorded as a cost, while expenses such as the annual depreciation on machinery and equipment and the salaries of employees on the production line are also recorded as costs. Expenses are those that are indirectly related to the product and include costs such as marketing and R&D expenses.

·~¥~¦¬¤J¥]¬A§Q®§¦¬¤J¡B§ë¸ê¦¬¤J¡B³B¤À§Q±o¡B¶×§I¡C
§ë¸ê¦¬¤J¥]¬Aªø§ë¸òµu§ë¡C
³B¤À§Q±o¬O½æ¤g¦a©MªÑ²¼¡C

Non-operating income encompasses a variety of sources, including interest income, investment income, gains from disposals, and gains from foreign exchange. Investment income can come from both long-term and short-term investments. Disposal gains refer to the sale of assets such as land and stocks.

¦³´X­Ó±M¦³¦Wµü¸ò¤j®a¦A½Æ²ß¤@¤U¡C
EPS¨CªÑ¬Õ¾l¡Aµ|«á²b§Q¡ÒªÑ¼Æ¡A¤½¥q³Ì«áÁ`¦@ÁȤF¦h¤Ö¿ú¡ÒªÑ¼Æ¡C
NAV¬°¨CªÑ²b­È¡A²b­È¡ÒªÑ¼Æ¡A¤½¥q¦Û¤vªº¿ú¡ÒªÑ¼Æ¡C

There are a few important technical terms to discuss. EPS, or Earnings Per Share, is calculated by dividing net profit by the number of shares. Net profit is the bottom line shown on the income statement. Another term is NAV, which stands for Net Asset Value per Share and is calculated by dividing net assets by the number of shares.

¥Î¾iÃZ¨Ó¤ñ³ë¡AEPS¬OÃZ¤Uªº¨C¤@Áû³J¡A
³J¦³¤j¦³¤p¡A¤j¥ß¥úEPS180¤¸¬O®£Às³J¡A
Áp¹qEPS¹sÂI´X¤¸¬°¿ÂÃƳJ¡C
NAV¬OÃZÅé­«ªº¤j¤p¡A10¤½¤ç­«ªºÃZ©Î5¤½¤çªºÃZ¡C

To use a goose-raising analogy, EPS can be compared to the eggs laid by a goose. Just as eggs come in different sizes, EPS can vary in size as well. For example, a company like Largan with an EPS of NT$180 can be compared to a goose laying a large dinosaur egg, while a company like UMC with only a few cents of EPS can be compared to a goose laying a small ant egg. On the other hand, NAV can be compared to the weight of the goose, with a 10 kg goose representing a higher NAV compared to a 5 kg goose.

¬ÝÃZ·|¤£·|¤U³J¡H«D¥ú¬Ý¨e¤U¤F´XÁû³J¡A
10¤½¤ç­«ªºÃZ¤U3Áû³J¸ò5¤½¤ç­«ªºÃZ¤U¤F2Áû³J¡A
½Ð°Ý­þ°¦ÃZ·|¤U³J¡H
§â³J¸òÃZ¤@°_®³¨Ó§@¤ñ¸û¡A§YEPS¡ÒNAV = ROE¡A
ROE´N¬O¬Ý³o°¦ÃZ·|¤£·|¤U³J¡H¬Ý¤½¥qªºÀò§Q¯à¤O¦n¤£¦n¡H

When evaluating the productivity of a goose, it's not enough to just look at the number of eggs laid. For example, a 10 kg goose may lay 3 eggs, while a 5 kg goose may lay 2 eggs, but this doesn't necessarily mean the 10 kg goose is more productive. To determine productivity, it's important to compare the egg with the goose, that is, the EPS with the NAV, which is represented by the formula EPS ¡Ò NAV = ROE. ROE is used to evaluate the profitability of a company and determine which goose is more productive in terms of generating profits.



¦Ü©óÃZ¦³¨S¦³¶R¶Q¤F¡H¦³2ºØµû¦ô¤è¦¡¡C
¶R»ù¸ò³J¨Ó§@¤ñ¸û´N¬O¥»¯q¤ñ¡AªÑ»ù¡ÒEPS¡A
ªá100¤¸¶RÃZ¡A³o°¦¤U¤F3Áû³J¡A
¥t¤@°¦¤U2Áû¡A­þ°¦¤ñ¸û«K©y¡H

To determine if a goose is overpriced, there are two evaluation methods. One is to compare the price with the eggs, which is the price-earnings ratio, stock price ¡Ò EPS. For example, if you spend 100 dollars to buy a goose that lays 3 eggs, and another goose lays 2 eggs, which one is cheaper?

¶R»ù¸òÃZ¨Ó§@¤ñ¸û¬°ªÑ»ù²b­È¤ñ¡AªÑ»ù¡ÒNAV¡A
ªá100¤¸¶R³o°¦ÃZ10¤½¤ç­«¡A
¥t¤@°¦5¤½¤ç¡A­þ¤@°¦«K©y¡H

The comparison of the purchase price to the goose is the price-to-book ratio (PBR), stock price ¡Ò net asset value. If you spend $100 to buy a goose that weighs 10 kilograms, and another weighs 5 kilograms, which one is cheaper?

°]³ø¤W¼Æ¦rªº³æ¦ì¹³À禬©M²b§Q¡A
³q±`«ü¦Ê¸U¤¸¡A¦Ê¸U­^¤åªºÁY¼g¬Om¡A¤d¬Ok¡A¤Q»õ¬°b¡C
­t¼Æ«h¥Î¬A©·¨Óªí¥Ü¡A(100) = -100

Financial reports often use units of one million for numbers such as sales and net profit. The abbreviation for one million is "m", for thousand is "k", and for one billion is "b". Negative numbers are indicated by parentheses, for example, (100) represents -100.

¬Ý°]³ø·|ºâ¦¨ªø²v¡A¦¨ªø²v¦³¤TºØ¡G
¦~¼W²v´N¬OYOY(year on year)¡F
©u¼W²vQOQ(quarter on quarter)¡F
¤ë¼W²vMOM(month on month)¡C

In financial reports, we calculate growth rates. There are three types of growth rates:
YOY (year-over-year),
QOQ (quarter-over-quarter),
MOM (month-over-month).

YOY¸ò¥h¦~¦P´Á¤ñ¸û¡F
QOQ¸ò¤W¤@©u¤ñ¡F
MOM¸ò¤W¤ë¤ñ¡C

YOY compared with the same period last year;
QOQ compared with the previous quarter;
MOM compared with last month.

YOY     8 '06 / 8 '05
QOQ    3Q06 / 2Q06
MOM    8 '06 / 7 '06

¦¨ªø²v¸I¨ì­t¼ÆµLªk­pºâ
60 / -30 = µL
-60 / 30 = µL
-60 / -30 = µL
µL=µLªk­pºâ

Growth rate cannot be calculated if a negative number is encountered.
60 / -30 = na
-60 / 30 = na
-60 / -30 = na
na=not available

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 06:35  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
«Ü¦h¤H°Ý§Ú¤Úµá¯S²z½×¸ò¶Ç²Î°ò¥»­±¤ÀªR¦³¦ó¤£¦P¡H
¤@¨¥¥H½ª¤§¡A¶Ç²Î°ò¥»­±¤ÀªR¦b¦ôEPS¡A°l¦¨ªøªÑ¡A
¤Úµá¯S«h»¡­n§ï¬ÝROE¤~¹ï¡I

People often ask me how Buffett's approach differs from traditional fundamental analysis. In essence, traditional fundamental analysis focuses on evaluating EPS and seeking out growth stocks, while Buffett emphasizes the importance of considering ROE instead.



¿ïªÑ¬°¦ó¬ÝROE¡H
¦]¬°ºû«ù¦íROE¡AªÑ»ù¤~·|º¦¡I

Why do stock pickers value ROE? Because as ROE is sustained, stock prices will increase!

ªÑ»ù = EPS x PER¡A
¼vÅT¥»¯q¤ñªº¦]¯À«Ü¦h¡AROE¬O¨ä¤¤¤§¤@¡C
ROE¤W¤É¥»¯q¤ñ·|¸òµÛ¤W¤É¡A
¤½¥qªºÀò§Q¯à¤O¤W¤É¡AªÑ²¼¥i¥H½æ±o¤ñ¸û¶Q¡C

Stock price = EPS x PER
There are numerous factors that influence PER, and ROE is one of them. If the ROE rises, the PER will also increase. This means that the profitability of the company has improved, and its stock can be sold at a higher price.



°Ý¤@­Ó³Ì®Ú¥»ªº°ÝÃD¡A½Ð°ÝªÑ»ù¬°¤°»ò·|º¦¡H
¤½¥qÀò§Q¦¨ªø¡AªÑ»ù´N·|º¦¶Ü¡H
¤£¤@©w¡I
Àò§Q¦¨ªø­Y¤£¯àºû«ù¦íROE¡AªÑ»ù¤´µM·|¶^¡C
¬Û¤Ï¦a¡A§Y«KÀò§Q°I°h¡A¥u­n§âROE©Ô°ª¡AªÑ»ùÁÙ¬O·|º¦¡C
ºû«ù¦íROE¡AªÑ»ù¤~·|º¦¡I

One of the most basic questions is why stock prices rise. While it is true that an increase in a company's profits can result in a rising stock price, it's not always the case. If profit growth cannot sustain a high ROE, the stock price may still fall. Conversely, even if profits decline, as long as the ROE improves, the stock price can still increase. In summary, maintaining a high ROE is crucial for a rising stock price.



®fÂEªºÀ禬¦¨ªø¡AÀò§Q¤W´­¡AEPS±q20¤¸¤W¤É48¤¸¡A
¥i¬OROE«o¤U­°±q89%­°¬°35%¡A
µ²ªGªÑ»ùºG¶^¡C
¿ïªÑ¬ÝROE´N¦n¡A¤£¥²¦b·NÀ禬¸òEPS¡C
«ü¼Ð­n¬Ý¹ï¤~¦³¥Î¡A¤£¬O¬Ý¶V¦h¶V¦n¡C

TPK (3673.TW) saw an increase in sales and profits, leading to a rise in EPS from NT$20 to NT$48. However, the ROE dropped from 89% to 35%, causing a sharp decline in stock price. To select stocks, it's important to focus on the ROE, rather than just sales and EPS. Remember, indicators are only useful if they are accurate, and having more indicators is not necessarily better.





¥°¶ì¬O¥t¤@¨Ò¡AÀò§Q¦¨ªø¡A«o¤£¯àºû«ù¦íROE¡AªÑ»ù¤U¶^¡C

Take Grand Process (3131.TW) for instance, despite its increasing profits, the inability to maintain a high ROE led to a drop in its share price.



³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 06:42  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¬Û¤Ï¦a¡A§Y«KÀò§Q°I°h¡A§âROE©Ô°ª¡AªÑ»ùÁÙ¬O·|º¦¡C
´¹µØ°s©±²b§Q±q2000¦~ªº8.98»õ¤¸°I°h¨ì6»õ¦h¡A
§âROE©Ô°ª¡AªÑ»ùÁÙ¬Oº¦¡C

On the other hand, even if profits decrease and ROE improves, stock prices can still rise. For example, Regent Hotel (2707.TW) saw a drop in its net profit from NT$898 million in 2000 to over NT$600 million, yet the stock price still increased due to the improvement in ROE.



¥i¤f¥i¼Ö³Ìªñ4¦~Àò§Q«ù¥­¡A¥i¬Oºû«ù¦íROE¡AªÑ»ù¤´µM¤Wº¦¡C

Despite a lack of growth in profits over the past four years, Coca-Cola (KO) has still managed to see a rise in its share price by maintaining a high ROE.



3MÀò§Q«ù¥­¡AROE¶V¨Ó¶V°ª¡AªÑ»ù¤@ª½º¦¡C

Despite flat profits, MMM's rising ROE has resulted in an upward trend in its stock price.



¿ïªÑ¤£¬O¬ÝEPS¡A¦Ó¬OROE¤~¹ï¡C
§ë¸ê¤H­n¨D¤½¥qÀ禬¨C¤ë³Ð·s°ª¡AÀò§Q¨C¦~¦¨ªø¡A
³o¨ä¹ê¬O¤£¤Á¹ê»Úªº·Qªk¡A
¦]¬°·~ÁZÁ`¬O¦³¦n¦³Ãa¡A¦A«ç»ò¦nªº¤½¥qÀò§Q¤]·|°I°h¡C
§Ú¶R¤¤ºÒ8¦~ÁÈ6­¿¡A³o8¦~¤§¤¤Àò§Q¤]´¿¸g°I°h¹L¡A
¥i¬O©ê¤F8¦~·Ó¼ËÁÈ6­¿¡C

Stock selection should not be based on EPS, but rather on ROE. Investors may expect a company's sales to continuously reach new monthly highs and for profits to increase year over year, but this is an unrealistic expectation as even the best performing companies will experience fluctuations and may have declining profits at times. For example, I bought shares in China Steel Chemical and earned a return of 6 times over 8 years, even though its profits decreased at certain points during that time. Nevertheless, by holding the stock for 8 years, I still realized a return of 6 times my investment.



¦b²{¹êªº¥@¬É¤½¥qÀò§Q¤£¥i¥Ã»·µL¤î¹Ò¦¨ªø¡A
¦¨ªø¨ì³Ì«áÁ`¦³¥¦ªº·¥­­¡A
Àò§Q¤£¦¨ªø´N¤£¦æ¡H·íµM¤£¬O¡C
½Ð°Ý¦U¦ì¦P¾ÇªºÁ~¤ô¦³¨S¦³¨C¤ë³Ð·s°ª¡H
¨S¦³¡A¦³µLÁȨì¿ú¡H·íµM¦³¡A
©Ò¥H­þ¸Ì»Ý­nÀò§Q¦¨ªø¤~¯àÁȨì¿ú¡C

In reality, a company's profits cannot continuously grow without limit. There are limits to growth. Does this mean that a lack of profit growth will result in the failure of a company? No, that's not necessarily the case. Do your salaries break new records every month? No, but you still earn a income. Therefore, profit growth is not a requirement for earning money.

¶}¤F³o­Ó¤Úµá¯S¯Z¤~µo²{À禬­n¨C¤ë³Ð·s°ª¬O«ÜÃøªº¨Æ¡A
²{¦b³£¤£´±­n¨DÀ禬³Ð·s°ª¡A¥u­n¯àºû«ùí©w´N¦n¡C
¥»¯Z¨C¤ë·s¥Í³ø¦W¤H¼Æ¦Ü¤Ö¦³80­Ó¤H¡A
¥u­nºû«ù80­Ó¤H§Ú´N¯à«j±j½k¤f¡C

After starting the Buffett class, I realized that reaching a new high in monthly sales is challenging. Now, I just aim to keep my sales stable, rather than breaking a new record. The class attracts at least 80 new students every month. So long as I maintain 80 new enrollees, I can barely make a living.

ROE¬O²b­Èªø°ªªº³t«×¡A
ROE 20%·N«ü²b­È¨C¦~¥H20%ªº³t«×¦bªø°ª¡C
¥u­n²b­È¥HROEªº³t«×¦bªø°ª¡A´N·|§âªÑ»ù©Ô¤W¨Ó¡C

ROE stands for the growth rate of net assets. A ROE of 20% indicates that the net assets increase by 20% annually. If the net assets grow at the rate of the ROE, it will drive up stock prices.



¦³¤H·Q¨â¥þ¨ä¬ü¡A§âROE»PEPS¨â¬£µ²¦X¡A
¬J¬O°ªROE¤S¬OEPS¦¨ªø¡A©Ò¿×ªº»ù­È¦¨ªø¾Ç¬£¡A
¥H¬°³o¼ËÁZ®Ä·|§ó¦n¡H
¦p¦¹±N¾A±o¨ä¤Ï¡AÁZ®Ä¤Ï¦Ó·|³Ì®t¡A
2008¦~¥x¿n¹q40¤¸®É¤£´±¶R¡A¦]¬°·í®ÉÀò§Q°I°h¡C
2014¦~¤¤ºÒ200¤¸®É«h¸õ¤U¥h¡A¦]¨º®ÉÀò§Q¦¨ªø¡C

Someone wants to have the best of both worlds and combine the ROE and EPS factions. This is known as the value growth school, where both ROE and EPS growth are high. They believed that this would result in better performance, but the opposite happened. Investment performance was the worst. They hesitated to buy TSMC at a price of NT$40 in 2008 because its profits were declining. In 2014, they invested in China Steel Chemical at a price of NT$200, because its profits were rising at the time.



³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 06:48  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¤@Á¿¨ì»ù­È§ë¸ê§Y¦³¤H®³ªÑ»ù²b­È¤ñ¨Ó¿ïªÑ¡A
ªÑ»ù§C©ó²b­Èªí¥ÜªÑ»ù¶W¶^¡A
³o¬O»{©w²b­È¥Nªí¤½¥qªº»ù­È¡A
¬O³o¼Ë¶Ü¡H¨Ã¤£¬O¡C

When it comes to value investing, someone selects stocks based on the price-to-book ratio (PBR). They consider a stock price below its net assets to indicate an undervalued stock, believing that the net assets represent the company's value. However, this is not necessarily accurate.

2013¦~¤j¥ß¥úªºªÑ»ù1,000¦h¤¸¡A·í®É¨CªÑ²b­È¤~186¤¸¡A
¬°¦óªÑ»ù°ª©ó²b­È³o»ò¦h¡H
¦P®É´Á°ê¥¨¨CªÑ²b­È16¤¸¡AªÑ»ù«o¥u¦³10¤¸¡A
¬°¦óªÑ»ù§C©ó²b­È¡H
³o¨â®aªÑ»ù¬°¦ó¦p¦¹Äa®í¡H
¦]¬°¤@®a¬O¦n¤½¥q¡A¥t¤@®a¬OÄꤽ¥q¡A
¤j¥ß¥úROE 28%¡A°ê¥¨ROE¶È3¢H¡A
ROE¤ñ¤@¦~©w¦s§Q²v6.7%§Cªí¥Ü¤½¥qªº²b­È¨S¦³»ù­È¡A
¶R¥¦ÁÙ¤£¦p¥h¦s©w¦s¤ñ¸û§Ö¡A
©Ò¥H¤½¥qªº»ù­È¤£¬O²b­È¨Ó¨M©w¡A¦Ó¬OROE¡C

In 2013, Largan's stock price was over NT$1,000, but its net assets value (NAV) was only NT$186, explaining the disparity between the two. Meanwhile, Yageo's NAV was NT$16 but its stock price was only NT$10. This difference in stock prices can be attributed to the quality of the companies. Largan had a ROE of 28%, while Yageo's was only 3%. If a company's ROE is lower than the 6.7% one-year time deposit rate, it suggests that its net assets are of little value. In such a case, it is better to save money than to invest in the stock. Therefore, a company's value is not determined by its net assets but by its ROE.



2008¦~ª÷¿Ä­·¼É¥x¶ìªÑ»ù¨S¶^¯}²b­È¡A
¥x¤Æ«o¶^¯}²b­È¡A¬°¤°»ò¡H
¦]¬°·í¦~¥x¶ìROEÁÙ¦³8%¡A
¥x¤ÆROE¥u¦³2%¡A§C©ó6.7%¡AªÑ»ù¶^¯}²b­È¡C

During the 2008 financial crisis, Formosa Plastics (1301.TW) stock price stayed above its net assets value (NAV), while Formosa Chemicals & Fibre (1326.TW) fell below its NAV. The reason for this difference can be attributed to the ROE of the companies. Formosa had an ROE of 8%, while Taiwan Chemical had an ROE of only 2%, which was less than the 6.7% one-year time deposit rate. As a result, Taiwan Chemical's stock price fell below its NAV.

¥ÎªÑ»ù²b­È¤ñ¤p©ó 1 ªº¤èªk¨Ó¿ïªÑ¬O¿ùªº¡A
±`·|¿ï¨ì¤@¨ÇÄꤽ¥q¡A
¦]¤½¥qÄê¡AªÑ»ù¤~§C©ó²b­È¡A¤£ªí¥ÜªÑ»ù¶W¶^¡C

Choosing a stock based on a price-to-book ratio (PBR) less than 1 is incorrect. This approach may lead to choosing poor quality companies. If a company is poor, its stock price may be lower than its net assets value (NAV), but this does not necessarily mean that the stock price is undervalued.

¤½¥qªº»ù­È¬OROE¨Ó¨M©wªº¡A
¦¨ªø©M²b­È¥u¬O¨ä¤¤¨â­Ó¦]¯À¦Ó¤w¡A
¼vÅT»ù­Èªº¦]¯ÀÁ٫ܦh¡A¹³§Þ³N¡BºÞ²z¯à¤O¡B¥«³õ¼ç¤O¡B«~µPª¾¦W«×...³£¬O¡C

The company's worth is calculated based on its ROE. Growth and net assets are merely two contributing elements. Many other factors also influence its value, such as technology, management competency, market opportunity, brand recognition, and others.

»ù­È(ROE) = f (¦¨ªø¡A²b­È¡A§Þ³N¡AºÞ²z¯à¤O¡A¥«³õ¼ç¤O¡A«~µPª¾¦W«×¡A¡C¡C¡C¡^

Value(ROE) = f (growth, net assets, technology, management capabilities, market potential, brand name, ...)

«Ü¦hªk¤H¦Ñ¬O³ßÅw§âªÑ²¼¤À¬°¦¨ªø«¬©M»ù­È«¬¨â¤jÃþ¡A
³oºØ¤G¤Àªk¥O§Ú¤£¸Ñ¡A¦]¬°¦¨ªø¸ò»ù­È¤£¯à¤@¤M¤Á¡A
¥¦­Ì¤¬¬°¼vÅT¡C
¤¤ºÒ¤@¯ë³QÂkÃþ¬°»ù­È«¬ªºªÑ²¼¡A
§YÀò§Q¤£¤Ó¦¨ªø¡AªÑ»ù§C¦ô¡C
¤¤ºÒªºÀò§Q¨S¦¨ªø¶Ü¡H¦³°Ú¡I
2003¦~¤¤ºÒ¤@¦~¤~ÁÈ5»õ¤¸¡A«á¨Ó³Ì°ªÁȤF22»õ¡A
±q5»õ¦¨ªø¨ì22»õ¡A
¥¦¬O»ù­È«¬ÁÙ¬O¦¨ªø«¬¡H³£¬O§a¡I

Many institutional investors divide stocks into two groups: growth and value. This division confounds me, as growth and value are interconnected. China Steel Chemical is categorized as a value stock, indicating that its earnings haven't risen and its stock price is considered undervalued. Despite this, the company's profits have increased; in 2003, it earned NT$500 million, and later it made NT$2.2 billion. Is it value or growth type ? It is both value and growth.

ªk¤H¹ïªÑ²¼ªº¤@¨ÇÁ¿ªk§Ú³£¤£¥H¬°µM¡C
¶R°òª÷®É²z±MÁ`·|°Ý±z¬O¿n·¥«¬§ë¸ê¤HÁÙ¬O«O¦u«¬¡H
¨C¦¸³Q³o¼Ë¤@°Ý¡A³£Åý§Ú´h¦b¨ºÃä¡A¤Ï¬Ù¤F¤@¤U¡A
¥»¤H¶RªÑ²¼¤£³ßÅw½ß¿ú¡A©Ò¥H¬O«O¦u«¬ªº§ë¸ê¤H¡A
¥i¬O¤S·Q­nÁȤj¿ú¡A¤S¬O¿n·¥«¬¡A
¨ä¹ê¨C­Ó¤H³£¹³§Ú³oºØÃþ«¬¡A¤£³ßÅw½ß¿ú¤S·Q­nÁȤj¿ú¡A
§Ú­Ì¬O¤°»ò«¬¡H¡uíÁÈ«¬¡v§ë¸ê¤H¡C

I disagree with some of the statements made by institutional investors regarding stocks. When purchasing funds, financial advisors frequently ask whether you are a conservative or an active investor. This question frequently causes me confusion and contemplation. Despite my desire to avoid losses when investing in stocks, I consider myself to be a conservative investor. However, as I am also motivated to earn substantial profits, I am often viewed as an active investor. This seemingly conflicting approach is common among investors who seek to maximize returns while minimizing risks. We can be labeled as "must-win" investors.



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¦~¬ö¤jªº¤H¨Ó¤é¤£¦h¤FÁÙ¦b«O¦u·F¤°»ò¡I
¦~»´¤H¨Ó¤é¤èªø¥i¥HºCºCª±¦ó¥²¨º»ò«æ¡H
¶}ª±¯º³á¡A¦P¾Ç¤£­n¦^¥h¤§«á´N§â¿ú¥þ³¡©ã¶i¥h¡C
¤£ºÞ¬O¨k¤k¦Ñ¥®¹ï©ó²z°]©Ò­±¹ïªº°ÝÃD³£¬O¤@¼Ëªº¡A
§Y³o¤@¤äªÑ²¼¨ì©³²{¦b¥i¤£¥i¥H¶R¡H
´N¬O¶R¤§«á¤F¤@¦~ªº³ø¹S²v¦³¦h¤Ö¡H
­Y¦³30%·íµM¥Î¤O¶R¡A
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¤£¬O¿n·¥«O¦uªº°ÝÃD¡A¦Ó¬O¹w´Á³ø¹S²vªº°ÝÃD¡C

The advisor will also tell you that older people should adopt a more conservative approach to finance, while younger people can be more active. I also disagree with this statement. Why should older people, who have limited time left, be conservative? Young people, who have a long future ahead of them, can take it slow. Just joking, classmates, don't invest all your money when you get back. Whether men, women, the elderly, or children, we all face the same problem in finance, i.e. can I buy this stock now and what is the expected return after purchase? If the expected return is 30%, then it's definitely a good choice. If the expected return is only 1%, then wait and watch. This is not a question of being active or conservative, but a question of expected returns.

³»³¡
mikeon88
ºÞ²z­û
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


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µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 06:54  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¼vÅT¤½¥q»ù­Èªº¦]¯ÀÁÙ¦³«Ü¦h¡A
¸êª÷¦¨¥»¡A­É¿ú¦¨¥»¤ñ§O¤H§C¡A¤½¥q¤]·|«Ü¦³»ù­È¡C
ªi§J®L´N¬O¡AAªÑ²{¦bªÑ»ù¬O30¸U¬üª÷¡A§é¦X¥x¹ô900¸U¦h¤¸¡A
³o¬O¤@ªÑ¡A¤£¬O¤@±i¡A
¶R¤@±i­n90»õ¥x¹ô¡A
¦P¾Ç¤U³æ®É§O¤U¶R¤@±iªi§J®LA¡A­n90»õ¤¸§o¡C
¤£¹L¬üªÑ¥æ©ö³æ¦ìºâªÑªº¡A¨S¦³±i¡C
¬°¦óªi§J®LªÑ»ù³o»ò°ª¡H
¦]¤Úµá¯S¦WÁn¯S§OÅT«G¡H¤£¬O¡A¬O¦]¯B¦sª÷¦¨¥»§C¡C

There are numerous factors that influence a company's value, such as a low cost of capital, as is the case with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). The current stock price of BRK.A shares is $300,000, equivalent to over NT$9 million, but it's important to note that this is for one share, not one lot (1,000 shares). When placing an order, it's important not to confuse buying one lot of BRK.A shares with buying Taiwan stocks, as it would cost NT$9 billion. Unlike Taiwan stocks, US stock trading units do not have the concept of a lot. The high stock price of BRK.A is not due to Warren Buffett's reputation, but rather its low cost of float.

ªi§J®L¬O¤@®a§ë¸ê¤½¥q¡A¶R¤F«Ü¦h®a«OÀI¤½¥q¡A¬O­Ó«OÀI¶°¹Î¡C
¦Ñ¤Ú»¡Í¢ªº«OÀI¤½¥q¦n¡A¦n¦b¯B¦sª÷¦¨¥»¤ñ§O¤H§C¡A
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Í¢ªº«OÀI¤½¥q¯B¦sª÷¦¨¥»¥u¦³ -3¢H¡A«ç»ò·| -3¢H¡H
«O¶O¦¬100¤¸¶i¨Ó¡A²z½ß103¤¸¥X¥h¡A¯B¦sª÷¦¨¥»3%¡A
¥¦¶È²z½ß97¤¸¡A©Ò¥H¬° -3¢H¡A²z½ß¤Ö¡C
¦Ñ¤Úªº¨T¨®ÀI±Mªù°w¹ï¾r¾p¬ö¿ýÀu¨}ªº«È¤á¥h©Ô«OÀI¡A
©Ó«O¥¨¨aÀI¡A¸I¨ì¤Ñ¨a¦aÅܤ~»Ý²z½ß¡A¥­±`¤£»Ý­n¡A
©Ò¥H¯B¦sª÷¦¨¥»§C¡C

Berkshire is an investment firm that owns several insurance companies and operates as an insurance group. According to Mr. Buffett, his insurance companies have a lower cost of float than other companies, which gives them a competitive advantage. The cost of float refers to the amount of money collected as premiums that can be used freely before claims are settled. In Berkshire's insurance companies, the cost of float is -3%, which means that they receive more money in claims than they collect in premiums. This occurs because they specialize in providing insurance to customers with good driving records and only underwrite catastrophe insurance, which requires compensation only during natural disasters and not on a regular basis. Thus, the low cost of float is a result of their underwriting strategy.



¤@¯ë«OÀI¤½¥qªº¯B¦sª÷¦¨¥»¤j·§¦b5-6%¤§¶¡¡C
«OÀI¤½¥q¤]·|­Ë³¬¡A¯Î¤j»Êªº°êµØ¤H¹Ø§Y¦]§ë¸ê¤£µ½¦Ó­Ë³¬¡C
°ê¥ÁÄÒªº©¯ºÖ¤H¹Ø¤]¦]Á«·l²Ö²Ö¦Ó½æ±¼¡C
·ç¤h¤H¹Ø¦b¥xÆW¶}ªº·ç®õ¤H¹Ø¡A¤£³ôÁ«·l½æ±¼¡A
¤Ï¥¿¤½¥q¦WºÙ¥s·ç®õ©Î®õ·çªº³£·|­Ë³¬¡C

The cost of float for most insurance companies is between 5-6%. Insurance companies may also go bankrupt, such as Kuohua Life owned by Weng Daming, who went bankrupt due to poor investment, or Singfor Life owned by the Kuomintang, which was sold due to heavy losses. Rueitai Life Insurance in Taiwan, owned by Swiss Life, was also sold at a loss. Regardless, companies named Rueitai or Tairuei are likely to go bankrupt.

¯B¦sª÷µ¥©ó´²¤áªº¿Ä¸ê¡A¦P¼Ë­É¿ú¨Ó¶RªÑ²¼¡A
¿Ä¸ê§Q²v6%¡A¥ç§Y¦bÁÙ¨S¶R¤§«e¤Úµá¯S´NĹ9%¡C
Í¢ªºÁZ®Ä¹L¥h50¦~¥­§¡¦~½Æ§Q19%¡A
³o­Ó¬ö¿ý«eµL¥j¤H¦Ó¥B«áµL¨ÓªÌ¡A
¦]¬°§Ú­Ì¨S¦³¨º»ò§C¦¨¥»ªº¯B¦sª÷¡C
¦³¨Ç¤pªB¤Í¦b¼g³¡¸¨®æ¥ß§ÓÁZ®Ä¤@¦~­n50%¡A
§Ú¬Ý¬O¥d¦­µt¥d¦³¯v¡I

Float is similar to financing for retail investors, who borrow money to purchase stocks. The financing rate is 6%, giving Warren Buffett a 9% advantage prior to buying. He has achieved an average annual compounded growth rate of 19% over the past 50 years, a remarkable achievement unlikely to be surpassed due to his low-cost float advantage. A student wrote in their blog about their aspirations for a 50% annual investment return, but they would be better off keeping that as a dream.



¦P¾Ç°Ý¡A¤W¤F¤Úµá¯S¯Z¤§«áÁZ®Ä¥i¥H¦h¤Ö¡H
­Y¤@¦~¦³15%´N«Ü¦n¡A
15%Å¥°_¨Ó¤£«ç»ò¼Ë¡Aªø´Á¤U¨Ó±N¬O¥iÆ[¦¨ªG¡C
¥»¯Z³Ç¥X®Õ¤Í¾H¦wÂí¦P¾Ç¡A±µ¨ü¤µ©P¥Z³X°Ý»¡¡A
¦Û±q¤W¤F§Úªº½Ò¤§«á¡A10¦~¤U¨Ó¦~¥­§¡½Æ§Q17%¡A
¥L­ì¥ý¥u¬O¦~Á~¤£¨ì50¸U¤¸ªº¤p·~°È¡A
²{¦b¨­»ù3¤d¦h¸U¡A
¥»ª÷500¸U¤¸¡A±q500¸UÅܦ¨3¤d¦h¸U¡C

A student asked about the potential performance improvement after taking the Buffett class. If a 15% return per year is considered good, then 15% may not sound impressive, but it will result in substantial gains in the long run. Outstanding alumnus Anzhen Deng, in an interview with Business Today magazine, said that since taking the class, his average compound return has been 17% annually over the past 10 years. He used to be a small salesman with an annual salary of less than NT$500,000, but his net worth has grown from NT$5 million to over NT$30 million, starting with a capital of NT$5 million.





¥H¤W´X¦ì³£¬O¥Î§Úªº¤èªkÁȨì¤j¿úªº³Ç¥X®Õ¤Í¡C
¦P¾Ç¥H«áÁȨì¤j¿ú¡A¨­»ù¶W¹L3¤d¸U¤¸¥x¹ô¡A
½Ð¼g¤@«Ê¥ì´A¨àµ¹§Ú¡Aªþ¤W·Ó¤ù¡A´N§â¥¦¶K¦b³oÃä¡I

The above individuals are exceptional alumni who have made significant wealth using my method. Students in the future have the potential to accumulate wealth exceeding NT$30 million. If you are one such student, please send me an email with a photo attached, and I will post it here.

³»³¡
mikeon88
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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 06:56  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
§ÚªºÆ[©À«Ü²³æ¡AªÑ»ù¤£¬O¶Ãº¦ªº¡A
ªuµÛROE©Ò©w¸qªº»ù­È½u¦b¤W¤UÂ\°Ê¡A­nµ¥«K©y¦A¶R¡C

My approach is straightforward. Stock prices don't rise arbitrarily, they fluctuate along the value line defined by ROE. The key is to wait for a cheap price before making a purchase.



³o°ó½Ò±qÀY¨ì§À¦bÁ¿ROE³o­ÓÆ[©À¡A¬°¦óROE³o»ò­«­n©O¡H
¦]¬°°ªROE+«K©y¶R¡A³ø¹S²v´N·|³Ì¤j¡I

This lecture will revolve around the concept of ROE. Why is ROE so important? Because the higher the ROE and the cheaper the purchase price, the greater the return on investment will be.

§Ú¨ÓÃÒ©ú¡A¶RªÑ²¼¦³¨âºØ³ø¹S¡A°t®§¸ò»ù®t¡C
ªÑ®§­n³Ì¤j§Y¤½¥q­n°ª°t®§¡A
»ù®t³Ì¤j­n¶R±o§C¡A½æ±o°ª¡C
­n½æ±o°ª´N¬OªÑ»ù¤jº¦¡A
«e­±¤wÃÒ©úºû«ù¦íROE¡AªÑ»ù¤~·|º¦¡C
ªÑ»ù­n¤jº¦©O¡H«h­nºû«ù°ªROE¡I
©Ò¥H°ª°t®§+°ªROE+«K©y¶R¡A³ø¹S²v´N·|³Ì¤j¡AÁȨì§Ö³t¼É§Q¡C

I will demonstrate why this is true. When investing in stocks, there are two types of rewards - dividends and capital gains. The highest dividends come from the highest dividend payout ratio. The largest capital gains come from buying low and selling high. It has already been shown that maintaining a high ROE leads to an increase in stock prices. Therefore, a combination of high dividends, high return on equity, and purchasing at a cheap price will maximize return on investment and bring quicker profits.



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¬D°ªROEªºªÑ²¼¡A«K©y¶R¡A³ø¹S²v´N·|³Ì¤j¡A
³Ì¦n¿ï°ª°t®§ªº¤½¥q¡C

This is a crucial conclusion that highlights the two key things that one needs to do while investing:
Choose stocks with a high ROE, purchase them at a cheap price, and the return on investment will be maximum. It is preferable to select a company that offers a high dividend yield.

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§Þ³N­±¡B¥~¸ê¶R½æ¶W¡B¥D¤O¶i¥X¡BÄw½X­±¡B¬Fªv­±¡B¿ïÁ|¦æ±¡¡A
³q³q¤£¥Î²z¥¦¡A¦]¬°¤£·|¼vÅT§ë¸ê³ø¹S²v¡C

All other factors can be disregarded: technical analysis, foreign investor and large player net trading, chip analysis, political issues, election rallies. Disregard them completely as they will have no impact on the final return on investment outcome.

¶RªÑ²¼¸ò¶RªF¦è¬O¤@¼Ëªº¹D²z¡A³£¬O­nª«¬ü»ù·G¡A
¤°»ò¬Oª«¬üªºªÑ²¼¡H´N¬O°ªROE¡C

Investing in stocks is similar to shopping.
The objective is to find the best value, just like looking for high-quality items at a good price.
What are the high-quality stocks? Those with a high Return on Equity (ROE).

³»³¡
mikeon88
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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


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¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 07:18  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
Á¿½Z 5/21¡GÁÙ­ìªÑ»ù
Lecture 5/21 Adjusted stock price



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§Ú¦b2003¦~35¤¸¶R¤¤ºÒ¡A
¤@¸ô©ê¨ì2007¦~ªÑ»ù83¤¸¡AÁ`³ø¹S²v¦h¤Ö¡H
¬O83/35-1¡H´î 1 ¬O¦©±¼¥»ª÷¡A¨Ã¤£¬O¡I

How much profit was earned from long-term stock holdings? I purchased China Steel Chemical at NT$35 in 2003 and its price reached NT$83 in 2007. What is the total return? Is it calculated as (83/35) - 1, subtracting 1 to exclude the principal? No, this is not correct.



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³o¬Oºâ³ø¹S²v³Ì§Öªº¤èªk¡C

To calculate the total income from stocks, one must consider both dividends and stock splits received each year. The current stock price plus the annual dividends and stock splits forms the adjusted stock price. Comparing this adjusted price with the cost of purchasing the stocks in the past gives the total earnings. This is the most efficient method for calculating the rate of return.



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¤§«á¨C¦~°t¤F¦h¤ÖªÑ²¼¡BªÑ®§³£§Ñ°O¤F¡A
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ÁÙ­ìªÑ»ù¨ä¹ê¬O°£Åv°£®§ªº¬Û¤Ï¡C
¨Ó½Æ²ß¦ó¬°°£Åv°£®§¡H

When investing in stocks, people often only recall the year and the amount invested, but tend to forget the number of stocks and dividends received annually. To calculate the rate of return, the simplest approach is to adjust the stock price. This adjusted price takes into account the ex-dividend and ex-rights. Let's review what ex-dividends and ex-rights are.

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ªÑ»ù100¤¸¡A°t®§2¤¸¡A°£®§«áªÑ»ù¬O¦h¤Ö¡H
100 - 2 = 98¡C

The stock price will decrease after ex-dividends and ex-rights. If the stock price is NT$100 and the dividend is NT$2, what will the stock price be after ex-dividend?
100-2 = 98.

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ªÑ²¼­±ÃB10¤¸¡A§Y¨C10¤¸°t2.5¤¸ªÑ²¼¡AªÑ²¼¦h¤F25%¡A
¤@±iªÑ²¼1,000ªÑ¡A°£Åv¤§«áÅÜ1,250ªÑ¡A
°£Åv«áªÑ»ù¬O100/1.25 = 80¡C

The stock price is NT$100 and the stock dividend is NT$2.5. What will the stock price be after ex-rights? The allocation of NT$2.5 per share refers to a distribution of NT$2.5 per share. The stock denomination is NT$10, meaning that every NT$10 is allotted with NT$2.5 worth of stock, resulting in a 25% increase. After ex-rights, 1,000 shares of a stock will increase to 1,250 shares.
Stock price after ex-rights is 100/1.25 = 80.



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¦]¬°¥u¬O§âÁȪº¿ú¤À°t¥X¨Ó¡A°]´I¤£·|¦]¦¹¦Ó¼W¥[¡C

Why do we calculate it this way? Why subtract for cash dividends and divide for stock dividends? This is to maintain the shareholders' wealth unchanged before and after ex-dividends and ex-rights. Why keep it unchanged? Because dividends only represent the distribution of earnings and do not result in an increase in wealth.

°£®§«eªÑ¼Æ 1 ªÑ¡AªÑ»ù100¤¸¡A
°£®§¤§«á¤À¨ì2¤¸ªÑ®§¡AªÑ¼ÆÁÙ¬O 1 ªÑ¡AªÑ»ùP¬O¦h¤Ö¡H
1ªÑ x 100 = 2®§ + 1ªÑ x P

Before ex-dividend, there was 1 share and the stock price was NT$100. After ex-dividend, a dividend of NT$2 was distributed, and the number of shares remained at 1. What is the new stock price (P)?
1 share x 100 = NT$2 dividend + 1 share x P

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°£Åv«áÅܦ¨1.25ªÑ¡AªÑ»ù¦h¤Ö¡H
1ªÑ x 100 = 1.25ªÑ x P

Before ex-rights, there was 1 share and the stock price was NT$100. After ex-rights, the number of shares increased to 1.25. What is the new stock price (P)?
1 share x 100 = 1.25 shares x P



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1. (100-2)/1.25
2. 100/1.25 -2
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1ªÑ x 100 = 2®§ + 1.25ªÑ x P

If ex-rights and ex-dividends are on the same day, what is the answer ?
1. (100-2)/1.25
2. 100/1.25 -2
The answer is 1.
Because 1 share before ex-dividend, stock price is NT$100,
After ex-dividend, a dividend of NT$2 is distributed, and number of ex-rights shares becomes 1.25 shares, so what is stock price P ?
1 share x 100 = 2 dividend + 1.25 shares x P

³»³¡
mikeon88
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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


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ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 07:23  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
¤U¤@ÃD¡A
°£Åv«eªÑªF°]´I100¤¸¡A°tªÑ2¤¸«á°]´I¼W¥[¦h¤Ö¡H
¨S¼W¥[¡IªÑªF°]´I¤£·|¦]¬°°£Åv°£®§¦Ó¼W¥[¡C

What is the change in shareholder wealth after a rights issue of NT$2 if it was originally NT$100 before ex-rights?
Answer: No change. Shareholder wealth will remain the same before and after the ex-rights and ex-dividends.

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ªÑ²¼¨C¤Ñ¦b¥«³õ¤W¥æ©ö¨Ó¥æ©ö¥h¡A
ªÑ²¼¦b½Ö¤â¤W¤½¥q¤]·d¤£²M·¡¡AªÑ§Qµoµ¹½Ö¡H
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©ê¶W¹L³o¤@¤Ñ´N¦³¸ê®æ»âªÑ§Q¡C

If wealth has not increased, why do we have to ex-rights and ex-dividend? Isn't it meaningless?
The purpose of ex-rights and ex-dividends is to identify who is eligible to receive dividends. Since stocks are traded on the market every day, the company cannot always keep track of who owns the stock and who should receive the dividends. Therefore, a specific day, known as the ex-rights and ex-dividend trading day, is established. Only those who hold the stock on or before this day are eligible to receive the dividends.

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¦Ó¬O·~ÁZ¶V¨Ó¶V¦n´N¦b¤ÏÀ³¡C

The increase in stock prices is not attributed to ex-dividends. Rather, stock prices are gradually reflected every day as a result of the company's financial performance. The rise in Largan's stock price to NT$6,000 is not due to ex-dividend, but rather it is a response to better performance of the company.

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¦³¦h¤Ö¿ú¯d¦b¤½¥q¸Ì¡H

One more question.
EPS NT$10, after ex-dividends of NT$2 and ex-rights of NT$2.5.
How much money is left in the company ?

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¿ú¤´µM¦b¤½¥q¤â¤W¡C
°£®§¤~¯uªº¦³§â¿ú°t¥X¨Ó¡A©Ò¥H8¤¸¯d¦b¤½¥q¡C

Ex-dividend means distributing retained earnings, while ex-rights convert retained earnings into equity. In the ex-dividend table, you will see the terms earnings transfer and capital transfer. Earnings transfer refers to the transfer of retained earnings to capital increase, while capital transfer refers to the transfer of capital surplus to capital increase. This is just an accounting transfer and does not actually distribute the money, it remains in the possession of the company. Only ex-dividends actually distribute the money, so NT$8 remains in the company.



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1 ªÑ©î¦¨2ªÑ¼g¦¨2¡G1¡A°á¦¨two for one¡C
1¡G1¬O¥¼©î¡C

Stock divide is referred to as a split in the US stock market. A 2:1 split means that one share is divided into two shares. On the other hand, a 1:1 split indicates that there is no division of shares.

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ªÑ»ù¤Ó°ª¨S¤H¶R±o°_¡A¬y³q©Ê®t¡A¥»¯q¤ñ·|§C¡C
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Why is stock splitting done? When a stock's price is too high and becomes unaffordable, leading to poor liquidity and low price-to-earnings ratio (PER), the company may choose to split its shares. Shareholders generally prefer a higher PER for their stocks. For example, when Apple's stock price rose above $700, a 1:7 split was done. This helps to increase the relative stock price if it drops to $100.

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mikeon88
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118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 07:28  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
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Will the PER increase or decrease after the ex-dividend date?
What will be the change in the PER after the ex-rights date?



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PER = stock price ¡Ò EPS
After the ex-dividend date, the stock price will decrease by NT$2. However, the EPS will not be affected by this decrease as it represents the estimated profit for the current year, whereas the dividend represents the profit earned from the previous year that is being distributed in the current year. These are two different types of money. Therefore, the EPS will not need to be reduced by NT$2 and the PER will decrease.

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Stock price ¡Ò 1.25 after ex-rights, and what about is EPS ¡Ò 1.25 ?
Yes! Due to an increase in the number of shares, the PER will remain unchanged after the ex-rights date.

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After the payment of dividends, the PER will decrease. This is the main reason why stocks with high cash dividends are highly sought after in the market during the ex-dividend season, which occurs from May to June each year.



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Cash yield is dividend ¡Ò stock price.
A high cash yield means a higher dividend or a lower stock price. I purchased TTET Union at a price of NT$24 in 2008 because of its dividend of at least NT$2.4 and a cash yield of 10%, which was significantly higher than the market's expected yield of 4%. TTET Union was in the business of producing salad oil, which is a staple food item that is consumed regardless of economic conditions. Since purchasing TTET Union in 2008, I have received a 22% annual compound return, which has been a great investment.

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Similar to TTET Union, stocks that are not affected by economic downturns and pay high dividends are commonly referred to as "defensive stocks." Examples of these types of stocks include supermarkets and telecommunications companies. These are often referred to as "fixed deposit stocks" stocks, as they provide a consistent source of income through their dividends.

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Fixed deposit stocks have a clear definition: they must be profitable without being impacted by economic conditions and have a high dividend payout ratio. Some individuals may consider cyclical stocks such as raw materials and shipping stocks to be fixed deposit stocks, but this is a misunderstanding as these types of stocks are often impacted by economic cycles. It is important to have a thorough understanding of these investments before making a decision.

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Question 6: Which is better for shareholders, stock dividends or cash dividends?

It depends on the company's ability to maintain a high ROE (return on equity). If the company can maintain a high return on equity, it may be better to distribute stock dividends instead of cash dividends. This way, the company can continue to help its shareholders make money, and the compound interest effect will be high.

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If the company is unable to maintain a high ROE, it is recommended to pay dividends so that shareholders can explore other investment opportunities.

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A company that can't pay cash dividends will have difficulty maintaining a high ROE in the long run. The net worth will get bigger as it eats more, unless it can keep growing, but growth has its limits.

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Question 7 deals with the calculation of stock price after a rights issue.
Question 8 is about the return of capital.
Question 9 involves the purchase of treasury stocks.
These three questions share the same underlying principle, which is that the wealth of shareholders remains unchanged before and after.
Please research on your own.

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榭G1 x 100 + 0.1 x 80 = 1.1 x P

Question 7: Stock price is NT$100, rights issue premium is NT$80, and the proportion of new shares is 10%.
What is stock price P after price increase ?
Answer: 1 x 100 + 0.1 x 80 = 1.1 x P

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µª¡G´î¸ê«e1ªÑ x ´î¸ê«eªÑ»ù108¤¸ =
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Question 8: How will the share price of Regeant Hotel be calculated after a 72% return of capital?
Answer: 1 share prior to return of capital x stock price before return of capital at NT$108 = returned capital of NT$7.2 + 0.28 remaining shares after return of capital x stock price after return of capital at NT$362.

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µª¡Gµù¾P«á«á¤´¬O100¤¸¡A1ªÑ x 100 = 1ªÑ x 100

Question 9: What is the stock price after cancellation, when the stock price was NT$100 before the repurchase?
Answer: The stock price remains at NT$100 after cancellation, as 1 share x 100 = 1 share x 100.

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Question 10 Is it worth participating in ex-dividend ?

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6%x2% = 0.12%¡A¤ñ¤âÄò¶O0.1425%ÁÙ¤Ö¡C
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During the ex-dividend season from May to June, students frequently raise the question of whether participation is worthwhile. The tax burden is not as significant as it may appear. With a 6% cash yield on the purchased stock and a 20% income tax rate, only a 1.2% tax is required. The addition of a 2% dividend for health insurance supplementary premium brings the total tax amount to less than 1.4%, which is lower than the typical 2-3% fund management fee. The 6% multiplied by 2% equates to 0.12%, a figure that is less than the 0.1425% commission.

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mikeon88
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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


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µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 07:32  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
ªÑ²¼ªø´Á©ê¤U¨Ó¦³¨S¦³ÁȨì¿ú¤£­n¥ú¥h¬ÝK½u¹Ï¡A
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³o¬OÂE®üªºK½u¹Ï¡A2000¦~ªÑ»ù¹F¨ì³Ì°ª375¤¸¡A
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Can you earn a profit by holding stocks for the long term? Don't solely depend on the candlestick chart, as it can be misleading. For example, examine Hon Hai's chart. In 2000, its stock price reached its highest point at NT$375, but later dropped to NT$204 in 2006. Although it might seem like a loss, the adjusted price of NT$204 is actually NT$622.4, resulting in substantial gains. To accurately evaluate your profits, examine the adjusted stock price instead of relying solely on the candlestick chart.



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2008¦~¶R¥x¿n¹q¡B¤j²Î¯q¡B¥¨¤j¡A8¦~ÁÈ4­¿¡C
2011¦~¶R©M®õ¨®¡B2012¦~¶R¬ü§Q¹F³£¤@¦~ÁÈ2­¿¡C
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When you download the On's table, please verify that my information is correct. My strategy is straightforward: a high ROE, cheap prices, and long-term holding can secure profits.
As proof, I bought Nienmade (8464.TW) in 2001 and held it until it was acquired by foreign investors in 2007, resulting in a 3x profit.
In 2002, I bought Ambit Microsystems (2386.TW) and held it until its acquisition by Hon Hai in 2010, yielding another 3x profit.
In 2003, I invested in China Steel Chemical and made 6x over 8 years.
In 2008, I bought shares in TSMC, TTET Union, and Giant (9921.TW), earning 4x over 8 years.
I acquired Hotai Motor (2207.TW) in 2011 and Merid (9914.TW) in 2012, resulting in a 2x profit.
In 2011, I bought NAK (9942.TW) and made 1x in two years.
In 2013, I invested in General Dynamics (GD), Standard & Poor's (MHFI), and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) within two years, earning 1x.
The graph below shows my multibaggers.



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Just listen to what I have bought in the past few years and earning several times the money may seem like bragging. It's important to verify it for yourself. On's table on the right displays a historical stock price table with annual compound return. What is the average annual compound return, purchased at the lowest price, from 8 years ago to the present?

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I purchased TTET Union at its lowest price of NT$23.8 in 2009 and have achieved an average compound return of 22% over the past 8 years. Often overlooked stocks can deliver annual returns as high as 22%.



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The same holds true for Berkshire. If you bought at the lowest price in 2009, and the average return has remained at 17% over the past 8 years.



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Examining historical stock prices, it becomes evident that a combination of high ROE, cheap stock prices, and a prolonged holding period can lead to substantial profits. If no money was made despite choosing high ROE stocks and purchasing them at a cheap price, the problem likely lies in a short holding duration. As analysts, we tend to deflect responsibility, but if you don't make money from the stocks I recommend, it is not my fault. The crucial factor is the length of the holding period.

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mikeon88
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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


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ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 0
©«¤l 15453
¾\ŪÅv­­ 255
µù¥U 2007-1-14
¥Î¤áµù¥U¤Ñ¼Æ 6283
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118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 07:33  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
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Reflecting on adjusted stock prices marked the beginning of my learning about Buffett. I was inspired to learn about Buffett from an electronics analyst at a foreign securities company. I used to regularly calculate the adjusted stock prices of the stocks I purchased and was confident in my market timing skills. However, now, upon reviewing those adjusted stock prices, I feel remorseful. I have come to understand that it would have been more advantageous to hold onto the stocks from start to finish for greater returns. The challenge remains, how can I maintain a long-term hold on my stocks? This is a significant challenge.

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I recommend purchasing TSMC. My students say it's not a big deal and everyone in Taiwan knows it's a good company. However, you need to hold onto TSMC for a long time to make substantial profits. I bought it at 43 TWD in 2008 and held onto it until it reached 240 TWD, that's the real challenge.

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When you question my approach, please review historical stock prices. I can assure you that this is a proven fact.



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mikeon88
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Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


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¥Î¤á¥¢ÂÜ¤Ñ¼Æ 0

118.169.162.107
µoªí©ó 2018-1-1 07:41  ¸ê®Æ ¥D­¶ ¤å¶° ¨p¤H°T®§ 
Á¿½Z 6/21¡G°ªROE
Lecture 6/21 High ROE



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Two crucial steps for investing: choose stocks with a high ROE and then buy them when the price is cheap. The simplest way to select stocks is by analyzing financial reports. Despite the claims that financial reports are outdated and do not provide an accurate picture of future stock performance, reviewing financial reports remains the most trustworthy method for predicting future stock performance. For instance, TSMC is recognized as a strong company while "U company" is considered weak. The gap between their past performance is expanding, making it likely that TSMC will continue to perform better in the future, as we can make predictions based on historical records.



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When it comes to choosing stocks, some stress the importance of visiting the company and conducting in-person evaluations. During my time as an analyst, I regularly visited companies and accompanied foreign visitors on tours. I conducted numerous interviews with senior managers of publicly traded companies. One notable instance was when I teamed up with a reporter from Dow Jones & Company to secure the first comprehensive interview with Morris Chang, a month prior to TSMC's initial public offering.

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A key disadvantage of visiting a company is that it may only showcase favorable information and hide negative information.
Why did Dongjing Wu, CEO of Shin Kong Life, buy HTC at a high cost of NT$1,000?
It could be due to his strong relationship with HTC CEO, Cher Wang.
He may have spoken with her before making the purchase, as she consistently showed confidence in her company.

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Identifying the students who attend National Taiwan University (NTU) among a group of over 100 unknown individuals is similar to selecting stocks. How can one determine which students attend NTU? Visiting the company is like asking each individual questions, such as "Did you study hard in high school?" If the individual answers yes, but does not appear to be a diligent student, it may not be a reliable indicator. Asking another student, "Did you perform well in high school math?" and if they reply "I excelled in mathematics and even won championships in physics and chemistry," it is still difficult to verify their claims. Determining which individuals are admitted to NTU is challenging.



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The simplest method is to request that each individual show their high school transcripts. If someone studied at a highly ranked school like Taipei Municipal Jianguo High School or Taipei First Girls High School and was in the top 10, their chances of being admitted to NTU are higher. Stock selection operates similarly; if a company maintains a high ROE record, there is a higher likelihood of continued high ROE in the future.

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Some people say that many company financial reports are fake.
This is indeed true, not only for Taiwanese stocks but also for stocks in the US, Hong Kong, and China.
As an investor, you need to be able to identify false financial reports.
A student said, "I have never studied accounting before, I only learned about it today."
That's okay, this course is specifically designed to teach those who have no understanding of accounting how to easily identify fake financial reports.


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Financial reports consist of annual and quarterly reports. The general accounting year ends on December 31st for the annual report and on March 31st, June 30th, and September 30th for the quarterly report, respectively. Financial reports are announced after the deadline. The annual report has a three-month deadline and must be announced before the end of March. The quarterly report has a one and a half month deadline and must be announced before May 15th, August 15th, and November 15th. After the announcement, On¡¦s Table will retrieve the latest financial report from the broker¡¦s database, which will be updated at that time.



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Don't get too excited when you first receive On's table.
A freshman told me that when he first received On's table, he kept checking it from stock code 11 to 99. I asked him how long he looked up.
He said he stayed up all night for two days. I encouraged him to continue to check US stocks.
You don't have to keep clicking like this. How do you choose stocks?
You can refer to the class watchlist and classmates' suggestions in the discussion forum.



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The discussion forum has a watchlist for global markets at the top. By clicking on it, you will see my portfolio first, followed by recommendations for all world markets. This Buffett class is the most international investment club, as we invest globally. Some students have even recommended stocks from Chile and Colombia, which raises the question of the seriousness of their recommendations.



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Friends, let's come together and invest globally! In the internet age, it's easy to invest globally. All you need is a US stock account and you can purchase stocks from all over the world. The world's top companies issue American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in the US market, for instance, TSMC has an ADR. I only opened two accounts, one in Taiwan and one in the US, and I have invested in stocks from 14 countries through the US market, including the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Norway.

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One of the advantages of investing in U.S. stocks is that you can minimize exchange rate risk. In addition to splitting your investment between Taiwanese dollars and U.S. dollars to reduce risk, investing 100% in American Depository Receipts (ADRs) from various countries can also diversify exchange rate risk. For example, I own ADRs from over 10 countries, which means the fluctuations of more than 10 currencies are reflected in the ADR's share price, thereby diversifying the exchange rate risk. The share price of an ADR equals the original share price plus the exchange rate difference.

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In recent years, currency depreciation has been severe, with the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and even the British pound depreciating by over 50%. The hard-earned wealth of a lifetime can be wiped out in just one night. It's crucial to minimize exchange rate risk.



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You don't need to be fluent in English to invest in US stocks, as long as you can interpret the numbers presented on On's table. The format of this information is the same across all global markets. We are more familiar with American companies. We drank Coca-Cola and ate McDonald's.
But, do you drink Chain Steel Chemical ? Of course not !

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Investing in the US stock market offers broad prospects and the opportunity to understand world-class companies. Which is a better investment: Benz or Yulon Motors (2201.tw)?

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If you feel uncertain about the future, investing in US stocks is the most immediate and feasible way out. If you can make money in stock markets of different countries, you won't be trapped in one place. From then on, you will be free and at ease.



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