講稿與盈再表免費下載

巴菲特班洪瑞泰 (Michael On) » 討論區1 » 講稿與盈再表免費下載

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mikeon88

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#121

發表於 2018-1-2 01:12 資料主頁文集私人訊息

確定是好公司，股價便宜就買，不要再想太多了，
買了最好忘了它的存在，不用照顧，不必停損，
多種果樹比較重要。

If it is a good company and the stock price is cheap, just buy it without thinking too much. After purchasing, it's better to forget about it, no need to take care of it, no need to stop losses. Diversification is more important.

我這番言論驚呆眾人，
非危言聳聽，有學理根據的。

My words shocked everyone.
This is not an exaggeration, but makes sense.

每次舊生來回鍋，都會關心他們股票做得如何？
幾乎百分之百無意外的，
績效好的都是一路抱，
不好的則跑來跑去。

Whenever my former students come back, I always inquire about their investment outcomes. Almost without exception, long-term investors have positive results, while poor performance is often attributed to speculators.

既然同學喜歡跑來跑去，我建議就不要跑了，
買了股票不用照顧，
這絕非在嘩眾取寵，實有所本。

Since many students prefer speculative trading, I recommend they stop trading and focus on long-term investments. By doing so, they don't have to constantly monitor their holdings. This advice is not meant to be sensational, but it is based on solid principles.

大家都知道我的賣股三原則：
1. 貴了
2. 壞了
3. 找到更好的。

Everyone knows my three principles for selling shares:
1. Expensive
2. Has gone bad
3. Find a better option

1. 貴了和 3. 找到更好，大家都同意，
問題出在 2. 壞了，
發現公司變壞了要賣股多半來不及，股價早跌翻。
我買GNC，原來也覺得不錯，
推薦的同學說現代人注重養生會買一些補給藥品，
後來股價跌了原以為只是獲利衰退，
跌了9成才知負債不能展延，大誌大條。
同學問我要不要賣？
跌了9成，即便一天大跌20%對績效影響已不關痛癢，
股票跌多了有個好處，下跌空間就越有限。

Everyone agrees on the first and third principles of selling shares: 1. If it's expensive and 3. If a better option is available.
The second principle, "has gone bad," is often disputed as it's difficult to determine when a company has gone bad until it's too late and the stock price has already fallen significantly.
For example, I once purchased shares of GNC which initially performed well due to a student's recommendation that health supplements were in high demand. However, the stock price later declined, and I initially assumed it was only a decline in profits. It wasn't until the stock had fallen by 90% that I realized the company was unable to extend its debt and had gone bankrupt. When some students asked if I wanted to sell, I explained that the stock had already fallen by 90%, so even if it fell another 20% every day, it wouldn't significantly impact my overall performance. One advantage of stocks falling drastically is that the downside is limited.

照顧股票在照顧什麼？怕它變壞。
變壞了又通常來不及賣，
所以呢？就不要照顧啦。

What does taking care of stocks mean? It's being afraid that they will turn bad. When they do turn bad, it's usually too late to sell. So, what should you do? Just don't take care of them.

把賣股三原則的 2. 壞了拿掉，
不就變成股票買了之後，不必停損，不必照顧，
一路抱到貴了才賣。

Remove the second principle of "2. Has gone bad" and it turns out you don't have to cut your losses or take care of it after purchasing. Hold onto it until the price becomes expensive.

我也實際去執行給大家看，
我的美股踩到很多地雷股，都未設停損，
VALE和GNC都曾跌了90%，
BBBY和VIAB跌60%，
HLF和TSCDY跌50%，...
可是總績效仍不錯，因多種果樹。

I proved this principle through my portfolio, which included some landmine stocks that I did not cut losses on. For example, VALE and GNC dropped by 90%, BBBY and VIAB fell 60%, and HLF and TSCDY fell 50%. However, due to diversification, the overall performance was still good.

投資跟農夫播種一樣，一把稻苗灑出去，
不期待每棵稻苗都長大，
只要7成能結穗即可豐收。

Investing is comparable to a farmer sowing seeds. Just like how a farmer scatters a handful of rice seeds, investors don't anticipate every single investment to yield returns. Instead, they aim for around 70% of their investments to mature and produce a bountiful harvest.

投資沒辦法百分百都對，
只要對個7成即會大賺，
講稿12/21算過我被嚴重套牢的機率是27%，
顛倒來看選對股的勝算為7成，
只要多種果樹，持續抱下去，當然會大賺！

Investing cannot be 100% accurate. If you are correct 70% of the time, you can still make a fortune. In lecture 12/21, I calculated that the probability of getting seriously stuck was 27%. Conversely, the probability of choosing the right stocks is 70%. As long as I continue t

mikeon88

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#122

發表於 2018-1-2 07:30 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 18/21：玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始
Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy

投資不要做融資，否則保證3-5年破產，
尤其要向年輕人呼籲千萬別融資，
年輕人血氣方剛，都愛融資殺過來殺過去才過癮。
同學問「破產還有保證的？」
是的！我來證明。
「破產還可證明？」同學紛紛投射出景仰的眼光。

Do not invest in financing, otherwise you will be guaranteed bankruptcy within 3-5 years. I especially urge young people not to engage in financing. Young people are full of vitality and they all enjoy financing to satisfy their urge for excitement. A student asked, "Are you sure about the guarantee of bankruptcy?" Yes! I will prove it. "Can bankruptcy be proven?" The students looked at me with admiration.

台股融資現在是6成，10元的股票只要出4元，券商借6元。
融資維持率是167%(=10/6)，
維持率掉到130%(=7.8/6)會被追繳，
亦即股價從10元跌到7.8元，跌22%。

Currently, the financing rate for Taiwan stocks is 60%, which means that for a stock priced at NT$10, investors only need to pay NT$4, while the brokerage firm lends them NT$6. The financing maintenance rate in this case is 167% (= 10/6). However, if the maintenance rate falls to 130% (= 7.8/6), a margin call will be triggered. This means that if the stock price drops from NT$10 to NT$7.8, a decline of 22%, investors will face a margin call.

第一次被追繳時還不會有事，
100萬元進去只賠了55萬元，一半多一點，
(100萬元融資，可買到股票250萬元(=100x10/4)，
跌22%等於賠了55萬元(=250x22%))，
從有錢階級變成中產階級，
本來吃200元便當，改成吃超商60元國民便當，
有些舊生中午200元便當不吃大概是這個原因。

You may be able to handle the first margin call if you have financed NT$1 million and only suffered a loss of NT$550,000, which is only half of your principal. With financing of NT$1 million, you can purchase stocks worth NT$2.5 million (= 100 x 10 / 4). A 22% drop in stock prices would result in a loss of NT$550,000 (= 250 x 22%). This means that you may go from being wealthy to being in the middle class. You may have been able to afford a NT$200 lunch box in the past, but now you can only afford a NT$60 lunch box from a supermarket. This may be why some former students do not bring expensive lunch boxes to class.

融資被斷頭一定心有不甘，會去借錢來補繳，
需借55萬元來補到滿。
當第二次又被斷頭就破產了還負債累累，
股價跌39%(=(1-22%)x(1-22%)-1)就二次追繳。

If you are forced to liquidate, you may be unwilling to give up and decide to borrow money to repay your debt. Let's say you need to borrow NT$550,000. However, if you are margin-called for a second time, you will be declared bankrupt and burdened with heavy debt. A second margin call will occur if the stock price drops by 39% (=(1-22%) x (1-22%)-1).

現在跌停板是10%，
跌2支停板第一次斷頭，財產腰斬。
跌4支停板即破產了還負債累累。

The current upper and lower limits for stock prices are set at 10%. If the stock price falls below the lower limit twice, a margin call will be triggered, and your wealth will be reduced by half. If the stock price falls below the lower limit by four times, you will be declared bankrupt and burdened with heavy debt.

股市或類股多久出現大盤或類股跌4成的機率：
2020年武漢肺炎
2015年QE泡沫
2008年次貸
2003年SARS
2001電子泡沫
1997亞洲風暴
大概每3-5年發生一次，符合景氣循環。

What is the likelihood of the stock market or a particular industry experiencing a 40% decline?
Several significant events have resulted in such declines in the past:
The 2020 Wuhan Pneumonia outbreak
The 2015 QE bubble
The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis
The 2013 SARS outbreak
The 2001 Electronics Bubble
The 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Historically, a decline of 40% in the stock market or a particular industry has occurred approximately every 3-5 years, coinciding with the business cycle.

2015年QE泡沫破裂，金磚四國和原料股跌得比1929年還慘。
俄國石油股本益比跌到1.4倍。
看葛拉漢的書，他是1929年代的人，
書中個股本益比也才4倍，
2015年金磚和原料股跌得比1929年還慘。

During the QE bubble burst in 2015, BRIC countries and raw material stocks experienced a decline that was even more severe than the one that occurred during the 1929 stock market crash. Russian oil stocks, for example, fell to a PER of only 1.4. This is in contrast to Graham's book, which described the 1929 crash and featured a PER of only 4. In 2015, the PER of BRIC countries and raw material stocks dropped even lower than the levels seen in 1929.

再講一個真實故事，發生在巴菲特班同學身上的
家庭倫理大悲劇。
2010年同學打電話來道謝，他加入巴班賺了很多錢，
去刷銀行存摺不敢相信戶頭裡有這麼多錢。
電話上我們在談天，聊著聊著突然提到
他前一年剛退休的老爸，
2009年退休之後就跟狐群狗黨鬼混。
他老爸的朋友跟他老爸講「現在股票很好賺，
「隨便當沖一下每月都可以撈個3-4萬元貼補家用。」
2009年指數從4,000漲到8,000那年，
當時國民黨又在宣傳簽了ECFA之後股市會3萬點，
之前還說三通股市會上萬點。
他老爸大為心動，
就在當時8,000多點時把他們家的房子拿去抵押
而且融資來做股票，效果加倍！

I'll tell you a true story about a student in my Buffett Class, and the tragedy that struck his family. In 2010, the student called to thank me. He had joined my class and made a lot of money, but when he checked his bank account, he couldn't believe how much money he had accumulated. As we chatted on the phone, he suddenly mentioned his father's retirement the previous year. His father had been spending his days idly with friends until one of them suggested day trading in stocks, claiming that it was very profitable and could earn him NT$30,000-40,000 a month. The stock market index had risen from 4,000 in 2009 to 8,000, and the Kuomintang party had been advocating that the market would reach 30,000 points after signing the ECFA. They had also said that the three-links with China would raise the index to 10,000 points. His father was convinced and, when the index exceeded 8,000, he even mortgaged the house to double his investment.

他老爸喜歡單押一支，想押對了也漲6倍就發了。
他跟老爸說「這樣會不會太危險？」
他老爸涉「市」未深「沒關係，融資只要善設停損就沒事！
我們股價跌5%就停損。」
他老爸第一支買亞泥，ECFA概念股，股價跌了5%停損。
第二支買南亞，老爸買的價格都是股價打了一個堅實底部，
第一根長紅、攻擊量出現即跳進去買，標準的技術分析，
結果又跌了5%，很果決的停損。
第三支買友達35元，後來跌破8元。

His father had a tendency to invest all of his money into a single stock, hoping to get rich quickly, just like I did when I made six times the profit in China Steel Chemical. The student expressed concern and asked if it was too risky. However, his father was new to investing and replied, "It doesn't matter, as long as we cut our losses. If the stock price falls by 5%, we cut our losses." His father's first investment was in Asian Cement (1102.TW), an ECFA play, but the stock price fell by 5% and he cut his losses. For his second investment, he bought Nan Ya Plastics (1303.TW) at the stock price's bottom. Following technical analysis, he thought that as trading volume increased, the first red long candlestick indicated that the stock price may rise, so he jumped in. Unfortunately, the stock price fell by another 5%, and he again cut his losses decisively. For his third investment, he purchased AU Optronics (2409.TW) at NT$35, but later, the stock price fell below NT$8.

同學說「老爸愛玩股票勸也勸不聽。」
他想「就讓他去吧！只要他們兩人的錢各自管理，就相安無事。」
我聽到這裡越覺不對勁「你知道令尊大人賠掉多少錢了嗎？
股價跌5%，融資賠幾%？」

The student said, "My father enjoys trading stocks, but I can't talk him out of it."
He thought for a moment and replied, "As long as we manage our money separately, we can coexist peacefully."
But after hearing this, I realized that something was amiss. "Do you know how much money your father lost when he cut his losses at a 5% drop in stock price while using margin trading?"

融資是出4元可買到10元股票，
股價跌5%，融資賠了12.5%(=5%x10/4)。
老爸連錯3次已經賠了37%，
說到此一時心急我大聲嚷著
「你家客廳已經是別人的！」

The margin loan allowed buying a NT$10 stock with only NT$4. When the stock price fell by 5%, the financing loss was 12.5% (= 5% x 10 / 4). After his father made three wrong decisions, he had already lost 37%. When I heard this, I became anxious and shouted, "Your living room already belongs to someone else!"

同學愣了一秒，聲音一沉說
「要掛電話了，要跟老爸談判去了。」
半年不到，同學說「人家已經來看我們家的房子了！」
後來怎樣？他老爸還和老媽離婚，
他老媽看老爸玩融資不成樣，每天吵架，
老夫老妻因融資玩股票離婚收場。家破妻離，
子不曉得有沒有散？

The student was taken aback and his voice became somber. "I need to hang up and talk to my father."

In less than six months, the student said, "People are coming to look at my house!" What happened? His parents got divorced. His mother realized that his father was not good at margin trading, and they argued every day. The couple eventually divorced due to the losses incurred from margin trading. They lost their home and his mother left. I wonder if the student also left with him.

千萬不要玩融資，
玩融資、期貨、選擇權是悲劇的開始！

It is advisable to avoid margin trading, futures, or options as they can lead to tragedy.

mikeon88

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118.169.162.107

#123

發表於 2018-1-2 07:40 資料主頁文集私人訊息

千萬不要玩融資，
玩融資、期貨、選擇權是悲劇的開始！

Never trade on margin.
Playing margin trading, futures and options is the beginning of tragedy !

建議同學把這句話當作家訓，
因為許多同學祖孫三代來上我的課，
他們的家庭日活動就是全家圍在一起按盈再表。
未來您的子弟一定很會做股票，
覺得自己無敵，就開始大玩融資、期貨、選擇權，
那將是悲劇的開始，
所以務必告誡小孩不要碰這些東西。

I suggest making this sentence a motto for your family. Many of my students bring their grandparents and grandchildren to my class, and their family activity is to gather around On's table. In the future, your children may become skilled investors in stocks. However, if they believe they are invincible and start dabbling in margin trading, futures, and options, it could be the beginning of a tragic story. Therefore, please make sure to caution your children against getting involved in these risky activities.

社會新聞，只要投資失利燒炭自殺，
一定都是玩融資、期貨、選擇權。
搞到燒炭自殺必定是負債累累還不起，
投資會負債累累一定玩融資、期貨、選擇權。
現股買進不可能燒炭自殺，
即便全踩到地雷也僅財產歸零而已，
再找個工作，下個月發薪水時就站起來。

Whenever there is news of an investor committing suicide, it is often associated with margin trading, futures, and options. These high-risk investments can lead to heavy debts and ultimately tragedy. Without financing, investment failures are unlikely to result in suicide. Even if all your stocks turn out to be a complete loss, your wealth may return to zero but it won't lead to heavy debts. In such cases, finding a job can help you restart and recover on your next payday.

融資者一開始都信誓旦旦，
一定會等等等到最低點再全押！
問題是誰知道哪裡最低？
2008年9,800賣掉夠高竿了吧，
等到6,000很低了吧，
融資買進跌到4,000一樣斷頭。

Margin traders often claim that they will wait until the stock price hits its lowest point before going all-in. However, the problem is that no one can accurately predict the exact bottom of a stock's price. For example, in 2008, you sold your stock for 9,800 and then repurchased it for 6,000, demonstrating your skill and patience in trading. However, even if the stock price later dropped to 4,000, you would still be at risk of a margin call.

如果上述故事還不夠恐怖，再補充一個，
台中同學告訴我的故事。
同學朋友的大舅子，
(奇怪！這種事情都發生在朋友身上)，
電子公司經理，一開始有一桶金，
現股買來買去，覺得不過癮，
融資殺來殺去，很快被斷頭，不敢讓家人知道，
老婆看到追繳令寄來才知，
和娘家籌了一筆錢把股票贖回來，
剩下一點錢。營業員跟他說去玩選擇權，
因為可以小搏大！
他真的去給它以小搏大，
更快的就賠光了還負債累累。

If the previous story wasn't scary enough, let me share another one with you.
This story was told by a student of mine from Taichung. It's about the brother-in-law of one of his friends.
(Strange! This kind of thing only happens to friends, right?)
This person was a manager of an electronics company and had a lot of money to begin with. However, he wasn't satisfied with just buying stocks with his own money. He started margin trading and was quickly margin-called, but he was too afraid to let his family know about it.
His wife only found out when she saw the margin call notice. She raised some money with the help of her family to try and redeem the stocks.
After paying off most of the debts, they had a little bit of money left. The broker suggested that he try playing options, as it could yield big wins with small bets.
He went in and lost everything, ending up in heavy debt.

這下子還不起了，大舅子一個人開車到大肚山燒炭自殺。
這位仁兄一輩子做人失敗到底，
融資失敗，
玩選擇權失敗，
連燒炭自殺都失敗，
被救回來成了植物人。
最倒楣的是他的老婆！

The brother-in-law was unable to repay his debts and drove alone to Dadu Mountain to commit suicide by burning charcoal.
This man experienced a series of failures in his life - margin trading, playing options, and even suicide.
However, his suicide attempt was unsuccessful and he was rescued, but he was left in a vegetative state.
The most unfortunate person in this situation is his wife.

我對於哪個單位大打廣告宣傳玩選擇權
非常不以為然，
捷運忠孝復興站長長電扶梯由上到下貼滿廣告，
叫人去以小搏大。
期貨選擇權原是給人避險的工具，
那個單位竟然慫恿散戶鋌而走險，真是無知。

咦！教室寂靜無聲，氣氛變得十分凝重。

I strongly oppose the authorities' active promotion of futures and options trading among investors. The escalators at Zhongsiao Fusing Station of MRT are plastered with advertisements enticing investors to make small bets and reap big rewards. However, futures and options are intended for hedging, not for gambling. The authorities are misguided in encouraging retail investors to take risks.

The classroom fell silent and the atmosphere turned solemn.

利率低和現金流穩定就可以借錢買股？
With low interest rates and stable cash flow, can I borrow money to buy stocks ?

Raimu發表於 2021-8-3 18:30

最好是可以現金買房
買完直接抵押再借出來
這樣你只要付少量利息就能同時吃房價增值跟股票增值
前提是你的現金流要夠穩
我月薪超過25萬，不需要股票的殖利率

It is advisable to purchase a house with cash and then take out a mortgage if necessary. This approach allows you to pay a lower interest rate while enjoying all the capital gains from houses and stocks. However, this strategy is only feasible if you have stable cash flow. As for me, with a monthly salary of over NT$250,000, I don't rely on stock yield for cash flow.

mikeon88發表於 2021-8-6 22:52

借錢投資的人都是盤算股票現金殖利率高，
足以償還貸款利息，
這又是現金殖利率的毒害。
股票融資被斷頭的都不是因為融資利率，
而是股價大跌。
買股票會賠錢，巴班方法也有27%機率賠錢

People who borrow money to invest believe that the dividends earned from stocks will cover the interest on the loan. However, this is a flawed concept and can lead to dangerous consequences. It is not the high interest rates that lead to margin calls, but rather the sudden and significant drops in stock prices. It's possible to lose money when buying stocks, and the Buffett method also has a 27% chance of resulting in losses.

股市隨時出現10%回檔，
一旦還款到期，
區區250萬元借錢買股
馬上讓月薪25萬元的高所得者周轉不靈。

The stock market is prone to a 10% correction at any moment, and when the repayment deadline comes around, borrowing just NT$2.5 million to invest in stocks could promptly put a high-income earner with a monthly salary of MT$250,000 in financial difficulties.

那些常掛在嘴邊說一旦股災來臨去借錢來加碼的人，
說得輕鬆卻不曾想過，能全部接在低點嗎？
1990年台股從12,682先跌到6,000大幅反彈，
夠低了吧，一堆老手跳進去
後來跌到2,485

Those who frequently claim that they will borrow money to invest more during a stock market crash may make it sound simple, but have they ever considered if they could buy at the lowest point? In 1990, Taiwan's stock market initially plummeted from 12,682 to 6,000, and experienced a substantial rebound. Wasn't that low enough? Many seasoned investors entered the market, but it later dropped to 2,485.

分散100支是避掉個股風險，
大盤風險仍在
2020/3大盤跌40%，巴班分散成100支一樣跌4成
借錢投資是加重大盤風險
若建築師說，幫你把房子蓋大一點，
可是耐震度會降低，
股市3-5年即來一次強震，
你願意嗎？

Diversifying investments among 100 individual stocks helps to mitigate the risk of individual stocks, but market risks still persist. For example, in March 2020, when the broader market dropped by 40%, our diversified portfolio of 100 stocks also declined by 40%.
Investing with borrowed money amplifies market risk, akin to an architect offering to build a larger house at the cost of reducing its earthquake resistance. The stock market experiences significant downturns every 3-5 years. Do you really want to take on this added risk?

Tarn 2023-1-25 0:54

有錢人借錢炒房
公司借錢蓋廠房買機台。
負債比非常高的公司都有
保險公司和金融公司投資股票跟債券

Wealthy individuals may borrow money to invest in real estate speculation. Companies may also take out loans to fund the construction of factories or purchase machinery. Insurance companies that carry high levels of debt may invest in stocks and bonds.

mikeon88發表於 2021-8-7 10:30

同學對於可否舉債投資顯然只知皮毛，
其中牽涉到許多因素：

The student only has a superficial understanding of whether debt financing can be used for investment. There are many factors involved:

公司負債比高低端視事業項目是否穩定而定，
產品價格波動大、現金流不穩定，或資本密集
應該用自有資金因應。
若是穩定的則可以舉債，如超商

A company's debt ratio depends on the stability of its business operations. If the product prices are highly volatile, cash flow is unstable, or capital expenditures are intensive, the company should respond with its own funds. However, if the business operations are stable, the company can consider borrowing money, such as supermarkets.

台積電負債比低僅40%，因為晶圓代工產品價格波動大、景氣循環明顯，以及資本密集。
鴻海負債比高些60%，因為蘋果的訂單穩定

The debt ratio of TSMC is low at only 40% due to the high volatility of wafer foundry product prices, significant economic cycles, and intensive capex requirements. On the other hand, Hon Hai can afford to have a 60% debt ratio because of the stability of Apple's orders.

買房可以有7成槓桿因為房價通常不太會暴跌

Buying a house can be financed up to 70% of its value, as the prices of real estate properties are generally less likely to experience a sharp decline.

銀行和保險公司負債比高達9成，
若全部投入股票，跌10%就倒閉。
政府嚴格規定金融業的資產多數必須買價格穩定的公債、投資等級債等，
即所謂的資本適足率。
美國金融機構可投資股票比例很低，
銀行不超過淨值25%，保險公司為30%，
若負債比90%，占資產比銀行不超過2.5%，保險公司3%。

Banks and insurance companies have a debt ratio of up to 90%. If all of their assets were invested in stocks and the market drops by 10%, they would go bankrupt. The government strictly regulates the financial industry's asset allocation, requiring the majority of their assets to be invested in stable securities such as government bonds and investment-grade bonds. This is known as the capital adequacy ratio. The proportion of stocks that American financial institutions can invest in is very low. Banks cannot exceed 25% of their net worth, while insurance companies are limited to 30%. If the debt ratio is 90%, the proportion of assets cannot exceed 2.5% for banks and 3% for insurance companies.

股票市場波動大，
我們又押身家，
公司本身負債比也常高達6成，
投資人若借錢投資等於雙重槓桿，
很容易血本無歸。

The stock market is highly volatile, yet we bet most of our fortunes on it. Many companies have a debt ratio as high as 60%,
and investors who use borrowed money to invest are effectively doubling their leverage, which greatly increases the risk of losing everything.

雜工發表於 2021-8-7 00:53

我來舉我個人真實慘痛的失敗經歷分享。
在還沒回到巴班，2018年之前，我的房貸，前2年只付利息，第3年開始付本息，我卻用理財型房貸，以貸養貸。而股票多用融資，大都賠錢收場，也大概打了3～4年「全職的」股期當沖，最後是賠光錢，賠到沒錢生活和繳房貸。

Let me share a personal and painful experience of failure. Before attending Buffett's class in 2018, I had taken out a mortgage with interest-only payments for the first two years, and began repaying both principal and interest in the third year. However, I also used an investment mortgage to support loans and investments. I traded stocks through margin loans and suffered losses in most of my trades. After three to four years of trading stocks and futures full-time, I lost all my money. I even lost the money I needed to live on and pay my mortgage.

當時房地產是漲價的，想增貸或轉貸卻都四處碰壁，因為提不出還款能力證明，戶頭也無存款證明，「專職投資人」這頭銜好聽，沒有半家公民營銀行、農會或信用合作社願意讓我增貸或轉貸，連類似於裕融這種民間貸款的轉貸也都不願意，剩下地下錢莊高利貸是我絕不走的一條路。

The increase in property value made me consider increasing my loan or refinancing, but I was denied due to lack of proof of repayment ability and deposit records. Despite the title of being a "full-time investor," private banks, rural cooperatives, and credit unions were reluctant to extend my loan or offer me on-lending opportunities. Even private lending services like Yulong Finance declined my application. I refuse to resort to underground loan sharks as that is not a viable option for me.

找了銀行商量，最後因擔心房子被法拍，只能忍痛低價快速出售，2018年尾處理掉房子和負債，幸好還有一點點剩餘，自知不能再這樣下去，於是在2019年1月打電話給老師，在當頭棒喝後才覺醒回頭。這部分，我在個人的持股分享那篇，或多或少有敘述過。

After consulting with the bank, I was forced to sell my house at a lower price because I was worried about foreclosure. I finally settled the house and debts by the end of 2018, but I realized I couldn't continue down this path. In January 2019, I reached out to Michael for help, and he gave me a stern wake-up call. This is the part I shared in the article, and I talked about it in more detail.

還款期限已屆，沒錢可還，銀行當然催收啊，繼續還不出錢就被法拍賤價拍賣掉不動產啊。持股套牢賠錢，想用當沖力挽狂瀾，卻又賠更多，惡性循環下去，到某一天逼到了也不得不處理。身邊沒錢，連三餐都出問題，借錢借到親友避之唯恐不及，這時該如何處置？只剩賣掉房子和動產，看能解決多少算多少啊！

When the repayment period has expired and there is no money to repay, the bank will send a collection notice. If you still cannot repay the debt, the bank may foreclose the mortgage at a lower price.
After losing money in stocks, I tried to recover it through day trading, but I only incurred more losses. This vicious circle continued, and eventually, I was forced to confront my financial problems. I had no money and struggled to even put food on the table.
I attempted to borrow money from friends and family, but they all avoided me. What could I do at this point? I had to sell my house, properties, and all of my valuables to make ends meet.

我說過，同學們不會像我這般不幸，所以不會碰到這些真實經慘痛經歷。
8年後，2019年1月回到巴班。
2019.12.31 美股持股獲利約+11％
2020.03.22 新冠病毒最慘時帳面虧損約-40％（慘啊！）
2021.05.10 帳面績效約+32％

殷鑑不遠，戒慎恐懼！
感恩Mike桑把我拉回來啊！
慚愧！慚愧！

As I mentioned earlier, my classmates won't experience the same misery as I did, so they won't have to go through my painful experiences. After an 8-year hiatus, I returned to Buffett Class in January 2019. By the end of 2019, I had made a profit of about 11% on U.S. stocks. However, during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic on March 22, 2020, I lost 40% of my investments, which was extremely painful. On May 10, 2021, I gained 32%.

I have learned to always be cautious and remember the lessons I have learned. Thank you, Mr. Mike, for guiding me back on track. I will keep your advice in mind always.

mikeon88

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#124

發表於 2018-1-2 07:44 資料主頁文集私人訊息

年輕人常問我要怎樣才有一桶金？
我說「我才收你6,000元，要教你巴菲特，
連第一桶金也要找我？」
在證券業近30年看比較多的是一開始有一座金山，
後來變成一桶金。
若有 1 億元1,300元買宏達電，現在就剩一桶金了。

Young people often ask me how they can attain a pot of gold. I respond by saying, "I only charge you NT$6,000 to teach you about Buffett. Do you really expect me to be responsible for your first pot of gold as well?" Having worked in the securities industry for nearly 30 years, I've seen more cases where people start with a gold mountain, which eventually turns into a pot of gold. For example, if you invested in HTC at NT$1,300 and now only have a fraction of that amount left, it's still a substantial sum.

同學問，錢要如何變大？
錢要變大不是靠融資，
而是方法要對。對個2次，錢自然就變大了。

Students asked me how he could make more money ? I replied, "It's not about financing, but rather using the right methods. If you make the right investment twice, your money will naturally grow and increase in size."

凱元2008年來找我時有多少錢？100萬元而已。
他8,000多點時打電話來報名上課，
他存了100萬元全部買中鋼，
以為一路抱到底就會成為巴菲特。
我用慈祥的口吻回「大誌不是憨人所想那麼簡單。」
還警告他，接下來股市將跌破7,200，
建議他先把中鋼賣掉。
他真的把中鋼賣掉，
若沒賣現在就沒人知道誰叫凱元了。
他拖一陣子5,000點時才來上課，
上完課就曉得那是低點，進來買滿了股票，
一路抱到9,800減碼賺了2倍，這樣不就300萬元了。

When Kaiyuen came to me in 2008, he only had NT$1 million. He called to sign up for a course when the market was at over 8,000 points. He had saved his NT$1 million and invested it all in China Steel, believing that he would become the next Buffett by holding onto it until the end. I kindly reminded him that investing in the stock market is not as simple as he thought and warned him that the market would fall below 7,200 soon. I suggested that he sell his shares in China Steel, and he followed my advice. If he had not sold, no one would know who Kaiyuen is now.

He waited a while and came to my class when the market was at 5,000 points. After the class, he realized that it was a low point, and he bought a lot of stocks. He held onto them until the market reached 9,800 points and then sold some, making a profit that doubled his initial investment. In this way, he had NT$3 million.

第二次即2012年初7,000點凱元懂得進場，
我們幾支漲倍股都有跟到，
和泰車、美利達、茂順、豐泰，
我猜測他至少賺了 1 倍，這樣不就600萬元，
所以他才跟我說「看到1,000萬元的車尾燈！」

The second time around, in early 2012, Kaiyuen knew it was time to buy at 7,000 points. He followed my stock recommendations that doubled in value, such as Hotai Motor, Merida, Nak Sealing Technologies (9942.TW), and Feng Tay (9910.TW). I assume he made at least twice the amount he had, so he ended up with NT$6 million. That's why he told me he saw the tail lights of the NT$10 million car!

凱元就是從100變600，
對個2次而已，2個景氣循環。
所以不用急，只要方法對了，錢自然會變大。

Kaiyuen's wealth increased from 1 million to 600 million in just two business cycles, thanks to the right method. Therefore, there is no need to worry; if the method is right, money will naturally increase.

mikeon88

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118.169.162.107

#125

發表於 2018-1-2 07:49 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 19/21：基金太貴，不做代操
Lecture 19/21 Funds are too expensive, don’t manage other's funds

關於理財，很多人買基金，
因一般人沒有理財知識想找個專家。
我反對買基金，因為基金太貴了，
基金手續費加管理費一年約2-3%，
看起來不多，其實非常貴。

When it comes to financial management, a lot of people opt to buy funds due to their lack of knowledge and desire to seek out an expert. However, I disagree with this approach as I find funds to be overly expensive. The combination of fund handling fees and management fees amount to approximately 2-3% per year, which may seem negligible, but it actually adds up to a substantial cost.

更有錢的人可以代操，
代操抽獲利的15%為佣金，
若獲利20%，代操的費用也是3%(=15%x20%)。

Wealthier individuals can opt for fund management services, where the management fee is 15% of the profits earned. For instance, if the profits earned are 20%, the cost of fund management would also be 3% (=15%x20%).

基金和代操都抽3%，看似一樣其實不然，
基金無論賺賠都要抽，
代操則是有獲利才能抽，
基金比代操貴 1 倍。

Both funds and proprietary funds charge a 3% fee, which may appear to be identical, but in fact they differ in their fee structures. Funds levy a fee irrespective of whether there is a profit or loss, while proprietary funds only charge a fee when there is a profit. Consequently, funds are twice as expensive as proprietary funds.

上述假定獲利20%是股神巴菲特才有的績效，
祂還有浮存金，
你的基金經理人是巴菲特嗎？
你有浮存金嗎？
比較務實的估算，獲利應抓10%，
這樣基金又比代操貴 1 倍。

The earlier assumption of a 20% profit only pertains to the investment performance of stock market guru, Warren Buffett, who has a float. Therefore, the pertinent questions to ask are: Is your fund manager as skilled as Buffett? And, does your investment have a float? A more pragmatic estimate would be to reduce the expected profit by 10%. Using this estimate, it can be concluded that funds are twice as expensive as proprietary funds.

基金比代操貴了 1 倍又 1 倍，
代操抽取獲利的15%，
基金抽走獲利的60% (=15%x2x2)。

Funds are four times as expensive as proprietary funds. Proprietary funds charge a management fee of 15% of the profits earned, while funds charge 60% of the profits earned (calculated as 15% x 2 x 2).

2016年報老巴解釋為何基金無法打敗大盤，
因為收費太貴，
祂算出投資獲利的6成都被投信抽走了，
6成的結論和我之前算的結果一樣，

In his 2016 annual report, Mr. Buffett explained why his fund was unable to outperform the market, citing the exorbitant cost of charges. He calculated that the fund had withdrawn 60% of its profits, which aligns with my previous calculation.

賠錢時賠客戶的，賺了錢要分6成，這跟土匪何異？
同學跟我投訴，她買香港的什麼基金管理費抽5%。
我當場催促她「趕快去報案！」
同學還說「基金要綁約20年。」
我訝然「是保證獲利的基金嘛？」
她苦笑「哪有保證？5元多港幣買進，現剩2元多。」
建議她贖回，她的理專似笑非笑地說
「請用現在價格打8折賣賣看，看有沒有人接？」
贖回不是用淨值，是打8折，
打8折還不保證賣掉，
這樣不等於全給它了嗎？

When losing money, the clients bear the loss, but when making money, 60% is taken away. Isn't this no different from bandits? A student complained to me that she was charged a 5% management fee for a fund she bought in Hong Kong. I urged her on the spot, "Report the crime quickly!" The student also mentioned, "The fund is tied up for 20 years." I was surprised and asked, "Is it a guaranteed profit fund?" She smiled bitterly and replied, "How can there be a guarantee? I bought it for over HK$5, and now there's only over HK$2 left." I suggested that she redeem the fund, but her financial advisor smiled and said, "Try selling it at a 20% discount on the current price and see if anyone will take it." The redemption is at an 80% price, not the net asset value, and even with an 80% discount, there is no guarantee of sale. Isn't this like giving everything away?

台南同學也跟我反映他買什麼基金也綁約20年，
績效很爛，建議他贖回，
理專板起臉說：「要贖回是嘛...
請先把未來20年管理費一併付清。」
他嚇了一跳，
管理費一年2%，20年一併付清不就要40%。
我笑他買的是伊斯蘭國發的基金，一贖回就腰斬。

A student from Tainan shared with me that he had invested in a fund that had a lock-in period of around 20 years with very poor performance. I advised him to redeem it, but the financial adviser's response was unpleasant. He said, "If you want to redeem, you need to pay the management fee for the next 20 years in advance." This caught the student off guard. The management fee was 2% per year, which means he would have to pay 40% for the next 20 years. I jokingly teased him that he might have invested in a fund issued by the Islamic State and halved it immediately after redemption.

有人說，不會理財找專家幫忙，
賺了錢給人多分一點，也無所謂！
問題是這個專家只幫忙做簡單的事，
困難的工作仍留給你自己。

Some people say that they don't know how to manage their finances, so they seek help from experts. It doesn't matter if the experts make more money and receive more bonuses! The problem is that these experts can only help with simple tasks, and the difficult work is still left for you to handle on your own.

投資只在做2件事，選股跟買賣時機，
即高ROE，淑買貴賣。
這2件事哪一點比較簡單？
當然選股簡單，不會選龍頭股買一買就對了。
買賣點比較難判斷，
1 萬點減碼後，請問何時再買進？

There are only two things to consider in investment: stock selection and trading timing, meaning higher ROE and good buying and selling prices. Which of these two is simpler? Of course, stock selection is simpler. If you don't know which stock to buy, choose leading stocks. Buying and selling, on the other hand, is more difficult to judge. When the position reaches 10,000 points, we cut it. When can we buy it back?

抽管理費還算客氣，理專要賺錢最好賺的其實是洗錢，
洗客戶的錢。

It is polite to charge management fees, the easiest way for financial advisors to make money is money laundering, which means laundering customers' money.

現在美股當紅，建議來買美股，
先叫客戶把台幣換成美金，買美元保單，
又說歐元便宜換成歐元，
南非幣利率高再換，
高收益債在漲又追，
等跌下來才買美股基金。
每次轉換就抽一次手續費，洗客戶的錢最好賺。
若買的基金才賺5%，理專就打電話來叫你轉換就是在洗錢。

U.S. stocks are gaining popularity among investors, with advisers recommending purchasing them. To do so, they first require customers to convert their Taiwan dollars into U.S. dollars and purchase U.S. dollar insurance policies. They also suggest exchanging currency into the euro, which they say is currently very cheap, and the South African currency, which has high-interest rates and is profitable to change into. Advisers are pushing for high-yield bonds, which are on the rise and should be chased after quickly. They also suggest waiting for a drop in the market before purchasing U.S. equity funds. Each conversion comes with a handling fee, and advisers often make money through laundering customers' funds. If your financial advisor asks you to transfer to other funds after only a 5% return, they may be laundering your money.

這種理專你會特別喜歡，
因為每周都打電話來報發財的機會。
還覺得他最專業，各種金融商品都懂，
不像那個麥可都不懂，永遠只叫我按盈再表買現股。

You may like these financial advisors because they call you every week to report opportunities to make a fortune. You might think they are the most professional and knowledgeable about various financial products. It's not that Michael know nothing, but always want you to buy stocks based on On’s table.

mikeon88

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#126

發表於 2018-1-2 07:55 資料主頁文集私人訊息

基金太貴，有人即鼓吹買收費較低廉的ETF指數型基金，
加上市場上多數人無法打敗大盤，
所以有人就選擇買ETF，績效跟大盤差不多就好。

Some people advocate buying low-cost ETF index funds because traditional mutual funds are too expensive. Plus, most people cannot beat the market, so they choose to buy ETFs with similar performance to the market.

上述觀點是錯的

1. 多數人無法打敗大盤？
這句話有一個陷阱
跟指數比績效，是假設指數全部買在起點，賣在終點，
當指數上漲時，指數全部買在最低點，賣在最高點，
此時選股當然不容易贏過大盤，
因為這是不公平的比較。

The viewpoint above is incorrect.

Is it true that most investors cannot beat the market?
This statement is a trap.
It assumes that the market index is bought at the starting point and sold at the end point, and that the entire index is bought at its lowest point and sold at its highest point when the index rises. Naturally, it is difficult to outperform the market in stock selection under these conditions, as this is an unfair comparison.

反之指數下跌，只要過程中減碼，選股者將輕鬆贏過指數，
可是比績效都是比上漲階段，很少比下跌段，
所以就誤以為無法打敗大盤。

On the contrary, during a market decline, stock pickers can easily outperform the index by reducing their positions. However, when comparing performance, we tend to only compare to the ascending phase and rarely to the descending phase, leading to the mistake of thinking we can't beat the market.

2. 買ETF的績效會接近大盤？
錯！ETF績效跟你買ETF的績效是兩回事，
ETF漲10%，綠角只有4%，綠角一個收費教ETF的醫生。
提倡買ETF者都拿ETF績效跟人比較，
問題是那根本不是他們買ETF的績效。

2. Will the performance of ETF investors match the market?
No, the performance of an ETF is not necessarily the same as the performance of the ETFs you purchased. For instance, while an ETF may have risen by 10%, the overall performance of Greenhorn, a Taiwanese doctor who sells ETF investment strategies, may have only risen by 4%. Those who advocate buying ETFs often cite the performance of ETFs for comparison, but this can be misleading as it does not necessarily reflect the performance of the ETFs that an investor has purchased.

投資績效受二個因素影響，選股和買賣點，
買ETF只是選股，更重要的買賣點他們卻不懂得談，
綠角的績效為何只有4%？
因為他的買賣方法很糟糕，
他照抄國外書上不好的方法「股債均衡配置，每年來個再平衡」
股票報酬率15%，債券4%，兩者均衡配置，績效變差，不是穩定。

Investment performance is influenced by two factors: 1. stock selection and 2. timing of buying and selling.
Buying ETFs is equivalent to stock selection, but it neglects the more critical factor of trading timing.
Why did Greenhorn's performance yield a mere 4%?
It is because of his flawed trading approach.
He blindly followed a poorly designed method from foreign books: "Equal allocation of stocks and bonds, and rebalancing them annually."
With stocks returning 15% and bonds returning 4%, this equal allocation led to poor performance, rather than stability.

買ETF者最常用的買賣方法是定期定額，
若股價從1元，2元，3元，一路漲到10元，
每漲1元定額買10元，定期定額買平均成本為3.4元

亦即定期定額的績效要扣掉27%(=(10-3.4)/(10-1)-1)
S&P500過去績效是每年10%，
定期定額買ETF的績效僅為7.3%，遠遠輸給指數。

The most common method used by ETF buyers for trading is dollar-cost averaging. Let's say the stock price rises from $1 to $10, and for every $1 increase, $10 is invested. Using the formula for dollar-cost averaging, the average cost comes out to be $3.4. This means that the dollar-cost averaging performance is discounted by 27% (-27% = (10-3.4)/(10-1)-1). Considering the past performance of S&P500, which was 10% per year, the performance of ETFs bought through dollar-cost averaging is only 7.3%. Thus, it lags far behind the index.

對於我上述言論不服者，請秀出自己買ETF的對帳單來反駁。

For those who disagree with my statement above, please show your ETF purchase statement as evidence to refute it.

選股優勢時間夠長就能益發凸顯，
1965-2016年，波克夏漲了2萬倍，SnP500只漲127倍，
天差地遠！

The benefits of actively selecting stocks will become evident in the long term. For instance, from 1965 to 2016, Berkshire Hathaway grew by 20,000 times, while the S&P500 only increased by 127 times. The difference is remarkable!

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#127

發表於 2018-1-2 07:57 資料主頁文集私人訊息

為何巴菲特方法以壓倒性優勢擊敗市場和ETF？
因為指數和ETF成分股有一半是爛的貴的。
這些爛股若一支一支攤開來，投資人必不屑一顧，
可是包進ETF裡卻買單了，
蒼蠅不能吃，包進包子裡怎麼就覺得好吃了呢？

Why does Buffett's approach outperform the market and ETFs by a significant margin? This is because almost half of the components in the index and ETFs are either overvalued or inferior. If these individual stocks were evaluated on their own, investors would likely dismiss them. So why are investors willing to buy them when they are packaged into an ETF? It's like how flies are not edible, yet when they are wrapped in buns, they do not magically become delicious.

ETF踩到地雷股時還會拿不掉，
0050裡包含了宏達電，
股價從1,300元跌到40元不就是地雷股嗎？
拿不掉啊！

ETFs are unable to get rid of landmine stocks once they have invested in them. For example, HTC was included in 0050 and its stock price plummeted from NT$1,300 to NT$40, just like a landmine stock. Unfortunately, it is not possible to reduce its position to cut losses.

投資最好的方法是自己去組一個ETF，
選股很簡單，上完這堂課每個人都會挑股，
自己挑最好的公司，便宜時買，抱到貴才賣，
這樣績效會最好，明星高中考上台大的比例最高。
我的二本書「魔法書」和「神功」
後面附的入圍名單都遠遠打敗大盤好幾倍，
即最好證明。
我的二本書分別是2004年和2008年出的書，
指數約5,000，至今台股指數1萬點，
把股息加回去，指數約漲了1.5倍，
可是書後的入圍名單大統益、中碳、台塑、
和泰車、台積電、豐泰、巨大、美利達、
裕融、茂順，檔檔都大漲好幾倍。

Creating a personal ETF is the best way to invest. Picking quality stocks is relatively simple, and after attending my class, everyone will be able to select them. The strategy is to choose the best company, buy when it's cheap, and sell when it's pricey. This approach will provide the best performance. In my books, "Magic Book" and "Magic Skills," I have included a shortlist of stocks that I personally selected, all of which have significantly outperformed the market. This is the best evidence I can offer. The books and the lists were published in 2004 and 2008 when the Taiwan index was at about 5,000. As of now, it has reached 10,000 points, and with the inclusion of dividends, the index has risen by about 1.5 times. The appended shortlists include stocks such as TTET Union, China Steel Chemical, Formosa Plastics, Hotai Motor, TSMC, Feng Tay, Giant, Merida, Yulon Finance, and Nak Sealing Technologies. All these companies have doubled or more in value several times.

無法直接挑選個股，才勉強去買ETF，
例如看好越南股市卻無法直接選股，
才退而求其次去買越南ETF。

The primary reason for purchasing ETFs is when one is unable to invest directly in individual stocks. For instance, if we are optimistic about the Vietnamese stock market but, for some reason, cannot invest directly in stocks, then we can consider investing in a Vietnamese ETF.

有人說，巴菲特也主張買ETF
老巴的原文是說 “average person cannot pick stocks”
不懂選股的一般人去買ETF。
令人訝異的是自詡為投資專家也在推廣ETF，
這不就承認專家自己不會選股 ?!
不會選股算什麼投資專家？
況且挑ETF比選股簡單嗎？
台股的ETF近百支，前50大、高股息、公司治理、高成長、價值型，...
要買哪一檔？

Some people claim that Buffett also recommends buying ETFs. However, Mr. Buffett's original statement was that the "average person cannot pick stocks." As a result, people who lack stock-picking skills opt for ETFs. Interestingly, even self-proclaimed investment experts promote ETFs, which raises the question of whether these experts can pick stocks themselves. After all, how can you call yourself an investment expert if you cannot pick stocks?
Moreover, is it easier to pick an ETF than selecting individual stocks? There are nearly a hundred ETFs in the Taiwan stock market, including the top 50, high dividend, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), high growth, and value types. Which one should you buy?

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#128

發表於 2018-1-2 08:05 資料主頁文集私人訊息

我不贊成買基金，更反對做代操。
同學千萬別以為上完課之後巴菲特神功就練成了，
準備下山去行走江湖幫親朋好友代操起來，
千萬別這麼做！
不管績效多好，好到跟巴菲特一樣，是巴菲特「再世」，
啊！拍謝，巴菲特仍「在世」，
是老巴的孌生兄弟姊妹，也不要做代操。
代操只要一個波段沒跑掉賠20%，客戶即翻臉離開，
這是人性，人家那麼一大筆錢給你玩，
賠了20%，當然會翻臉。
代操錯在違反人性。

I do not recommend purchasing funds, and I am even more against managing proprietary funds. Just because you have learned some of Buffett's investment techniques does not mean you should start helping friends and family with their financial management. It's a bad idea. Even if you have a strong investment performance and are as skilled as Buffett, you should not manage proprietary funds. If you lose 20% in a trade, customers will leave. It's just human nature. People give you a lot of money to invest, and a 20% loss will make them angry. Proprietary funds are a flawed business model because they go against human nature.

不要以為學了巴菲特神功之後就不會賠20%，
更會！
因為以前會跑，現在不會了。
還沒買股前跟客戶說你是巴菲特他絕對聽得進去，
買了股票賠了20%說你是巴菲特，
客戶就給你巴下去。

Don't assume that you won't experience a 20% loss even after learning Buffett's magic skills. It's even more likely to happen. During stock market declines, the buy-and-hold strategy is more likely to lead to a 20% loss compared to short-term trades with reduced losses. It's easy to tell customers that you're a skilled investor like Buffett, and they may listen to you initially. However, if you do end up losing 20%, claiming to be like Buffett won't help, as customers will be disappointed and may let you go.

翻臉離開的還是好客戶，
最怕的是翻臉不離開的，
晚上還叫你去八里媽媽嘴，才是可怕的客戶。

The customers who turn away are still good, but the ones who turn their faces and do not leave are the most frightening. If a customer invites you to a coffee shop in a remote area late at night, that's a terrible customer.

理財不要買基金也別做代操，那應當怎麼做呢？
最好的方法就是來上巴菲特班。
上了2天的課同學應能感覺出這個方法很簡單，
只在按盈再表而已，任何人都學得會。

If you are looking for an alternative to buying funds or proprietary funds for financial management, I suggest taking my course. After just two days in the class, students should find this method very simple. You can learn by checking On's table, and anyone can do it.

而且不管什麼時候來上課我都可保護到同學，
我需要保護同學，因為只有同學用我的方法賺了大錢，
才會介紹親友好友來上課。
我的利益和同學是一致的，
理專、營業員、投信的利益和客戶不一定相同。
所以理財最好的方式是來上巴菲特班，財自己理就好，
以上是巴菲特班的置入行銷，打打廣告。

Regardless of when you enroll in my course, I will ensure your protection. I am dedicated to safeguarding my students because their success using my methods translates into referrals of their friends and family to my course. My interests are fully aligned with those of my students. The interests of bank financial advisers, securities company brokers, and fund companies may not align with their clients. Therefore, the best approach to managing your finances is to enroll in my course and take control of your investments. The above statements are part of my course promotion and advertising strategy.

買基金好還是ETF ?
當然是ETF。
買ETF好還是波克夏股票 ?
當然是波克夏。
買波克夏股票好還是上巴菲特班 ?
當然是上巴菲特班最好，才有「有為者亦若是」的快感。
巴菲特方法很簡單，人人都學得會。

Which is a better investment option: funds or ETFs?
ETFs are the better option.
What about ETFs or buying Berkshire stock?
Definitely buying Berkshire stock.
Is it better to buy Berkshire shares or attend the Buffett class?
It's best to attend the Buffett class and experience the thrill of "I am Buffett too". Buffett's investment strategy is simple and can be learned by anyone.

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#129

發表於 2018-1-2 08:10 資料主頁文集私人訊息

每回股市一到高點即會接到同學的諮詢電話，
說他的人生要重新開始，想找我諮詢。
我眼睛睜著大大地「我才收你6,000元，要教你巴菲特，
還要幫你的人生做規劃，這麼大的題目...」

Whenever the stock market reaches its peak, my students start consulting me. They tell me that their life is about to change and they need my advice. I widened my eyes and exclaimed, "I only charge you NT$6,000 to teach you about Buffett, and on top of that, I also have to help plan your life. It's such a huge undertaking..."

問他要幹嘛？同學答「想當專業投業人」，
我好納悶，這位同學我認識啊，
2005年來上課，北捷員工，
偶然在捷運站相遇，看到我沒事晃來晃去，心中不爽。
他說他也賺到錢了「賺到30年薪水。」
也想來當專業投資人。
同學績效當然很好，可是不像我接受過嚴格的研究員訓練，
在我看來仍是外行人，怎地想當「專業」投資人？

I asked him what he wanted to do and he answered, "I want to become a full-time investor." I was quite confused as I knew this person. He was a Taipei Metro employee who had attended my course since 2005. I happened to run into him by chance at the MRT station, and he seemed very disheartened to see me joking around. He told me that he had earned "30 years of salary" and wanted to become a professional investor like me. While the student's performance was impressive, he lacked the rigorous analyst training that I had received. From my perspective, he was still a layman. Did he really want to become a "full-time" investor?

問他要幹嘛？同學說「想把工作辭掉！」，
才會意「喔！把工作辭掉，那叫無業投資人。」
同學，把名詞定義清楚，答案才會正確。

Ask him what he wants to do? The student replied, "I want to quit my job!" and it dawned on me, "Oh! So he wants to be an unemployed investor." Clearly defining the terms will lead to the right answer for the students.

問他的專業在哪裡？
他說他的專業就是按盈再表！
「盈再表是我的專業，是我寫的程式。」我瞪了回去
「按盈再表晚上按，按不完，周六日再按。」
上完我的課應該會覺得時間突然多出來，
因等很久才會便宜，買了也要抱好幾年。

I asked him what his expertise was and he replied, "I specialize in On's table!" On's table is a program that I developed. I gave him a stern look and said, "You can review On's table in the evenings after work. If you don't finish it, please review it again on Saturdays and Sundays." After completing my course, you should feel like you have more time, and you need to be patient in waiting for cheap prices and holding onto stocks for many years.

只要聽到同學說「要當無業投資人」
我就知道高點到了，就去賣股票。
這個現象很準喔，
2017年漲到 1 萬點又有個傢伙說他不教了，要雲遊去，
這個傢伙4,000時很兢兢業業在教書，漲到 1 萬點就作怪了。

When I heard my student say, "I want to become an unemployed investor," I knew that the market had reached its peak and it was time to sell stocks. This phenomenon has been very accurate. In 2017, when the market reached 10,000 points, another guy who was teaching and earning 4,000 also said he wanted to quit teaching and go on an adventure. It's interesting to see how people's behavior changes when the market hits certain milestones.

這個「無業投資人」是本班很有名的擦鞋童現象，
本班另一個更出名的擦鞋童現象
當有人強烈質疑GDP理論不準時，就是股市高點。

The "unemployed investor" is a well-known shoeshine boy phenomenon in our class. Another famous shoeshine boy phenomenon in our class is when someone expresses strong doubts about the accuracy of the GDP theorem, it indicates a high point in the stock market.

2008年4,000點買到滿一路到2011年8,300
我持股賣掉一半，
跌到7,000因QE把指數往上帶漲到9,000，
就有同學在他自己的部落格和噗浪網嘲笑我
GDP理論根本不準，而我卻仍然堅持，
同學笑說「GDP理論是國王的新衣。」
9,000點時我還預言股市將跌破7,000，
一位路人甲還在我的部落格留言「你還在等7,000點嗎？」
對我極盡羞辱。
後來真的跌破7,000這幾位仁兄即作鳥獸散，當作沒發生過一樣。

In 2008, when the index was at 4,000 points, I went all-in and held it until it reached 8,300 points in 2011. Then, I sold half of my shares. The index later dropped to 7,000 points, but the QE policy caused it to rise to 9,000 points. However, a student mocked me on his blog and Plurk.com, claiming that the GDP Theorem was inaccurate, but I persisted. He called it the "king's new clothes". At 9,000 points, I predicted that the stock market would fall below 7,000 points. A passerby on my blog asked, "Are you still waiting for 7,000 points?" This was extremely humiliating. Later, when the index did drop below 7,000 points, those two guys disappeared without a trace, as if it had never happened.

同學問我「對這些不忠不孝孽徒的看法？」
我只能無奈「股市先知總是被白痴嘲笑！」

Some students asked me: "What do you think about these disloyal and ungrateful traitors?"
To which I replied, "Prophets are always mocked by fools in the stock market!"

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#130

發表於 2018-1-2 08:14 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 20/21：股債不是蹺蹺板
Lecture 20/21 Stock debt is not a seesaw

股票高點賣掉之後，請擺現金或存定存，
不要再做任何投資。
有人說「擺現金，沒什麼收益啊？」
當萬物皆貴時，
股票報酬率可能為-20%，債券-15%，房地產-10%，...
現金報酬率 0 將是最高。

After selling stocks at a high price, please deposit the proceeds in cash or a deposit account. Refrain from making any further investments. Someone may argue, "Saving cash yields no gain?" However, during times when asset prices are high, stocks may generate a return of -20%, bonds -15%, and real estate -10%. In contrast, holding cash with 0% return may actually result in the highest return.

尤其別被拐去買什麼債券型基金，
投信和理專總會說「股債是蹺蹺板，資產要均配置」，
是誤解了報紙上常見標題「債券殖利率上升導致股票大跌」，
債券殖利率=債息/債券價格
債券殖利率上升是債券價格下格，居然連基本公式都不懂。

Especially do not be enticed to invest in a bond fund, particularly by the advice of fund companies and bank advisors who claim that a balanced allocation of assets between stocks and bonds is necessary. This is a misinterpretation of the common newspaper headline "Rising bond yields cause stocks to fall." The bond yield formula is yield = interest rate / bond price, and an increase in bond yields signifies a decrease in bond prices. It appears that they do not even comprehend the fundamental concept of yields.

而且也不是債券導致股票下跌，只是同方向漲跌而已。
請看第一張圖：高收益債ETF(JNK)與道瓊走勢密切相關
股市高檔賣掉轉去買高收益債，這樣等於沒減碼。

Rising and falling trends in stocks and bonds are not causally related. In fact, they often move in the same direction. As shown in the first picture, the High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) closely follows the trends of the Dow Jones index. Switching to high-yield bonds after selling stocks at a high price does not significantly reduce your position since the two assets are highly correlated.

高收益債JNK是什麼的縮寫？
Junk，垃圾債，
即基本面較差公司發行的公司債。
我對投信業最不能諒解的，
居然把垃圾債券美其名為高收益債券，
這等於把麥可說成金城武。

What is the meaning of the abbreviation JNK, which stands for high yield bonds? JNK refers to junk or low-quality debt, specifically corporate bonds issued by companies with poor financial fundamentals. It is concerning that some fund companies refer to these low-quality bonds as high-yield bonds, which is akin to saying that Michael is Takeshi Kaneshiro, a completely inaccurate statement.

有人說他不是買高收益債，而是政府公債，不會跌，
公債怎麼不會跌，碰到國家危機照樣會跌。
圖二美國10年公債ETF(BIV)與道瓊走勢圖，
2008年次貸危機道瓊大跌，10年公債也跟著跌。
拉丁美洲、希臘發生債信危機時政府公債都跌翻掉。

There are those who claim that they do not invest in high-yield bonds, but rather in government bonds that are less prone to declines. However, this is a misconception since even government debt can fall, especially during a national crisis. As depicted in Figure 2, the U.S. 10-year public debt ETF (BIV) and the Dow Jones trend chart show that during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, both the Dow Jones and the 10-year bond experienced significant declines. Similarly, during the debt crises in Latin America and Greece, government bonds also plummeted.

同學拿第三張圖20年公債ETF(TILT)與道瓊走勢圖來反駁，
說次貸危機時美國20年公債和股市就是蹺蹺板，
股市大跌時20年公債反而上揚，問我如何解釋？

A student used the third chart, which features the 20-year Treasury ETF (TILT) and the Dow Jones chart, to counter the argument. During the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. 20-year public debt and the stock market moved like a seesaw. When the stock market experienced significant declines, the 20-year bond increased in value. How can this be explained?

這很簡單，以上3張圖顯示資金撤退的先後順序。
股市和垃圾債最不穩定，一有風吹草動最先被撒出，
10年公債次之，
最後則為20年公債。

It is quite simple to understand. The three pictures presented above illustrate the sequence of capital withdrawal during market turbulence. The stock market and junk debt are the most volatile and are often the first to experience capital outflows. The next in line is the 10-year bond, followed by the 20-year public debt, which is the most stable and tends to be withdrawn last.

20年公債反而漲的原因，
2008年次貸危機僅止於金融業而已，
美國政府債信仍然無虞，才能印鈔票救市。
若惡化到如希臘債信危機一般，政府也破產了，
則20年公債也將難保，甚至美金也沒人要。

The reason for the rise in the 20-year public debt is that the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis was contained within the financial industry. The U.S. government's debt remained intact, and it was able to print money to rescue the market. However, if the situation deteriorates to the extent of the Greek debt crisis, the government may also face bankruptcy. In such a scenario, the 20-year public debt may become difficult to guarantee, and people may lose trust in the dollar.

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#131

發表於 2018-1-2 08:17 資料主頁文集私人訊息

投信所說的「股債是蹺蹺板，資產要均衡配置」
這兩句根本自相矛盾。
若股債真是蹺蹺板，一個漲一個跌，
又均衡配置各押5成，
合起來績效為零，
扣掉管理費，總績效將是-3%，
這樣何必費工理財，不如存定存 !

The statement made by fund companies that "stocks and bonds are seesaws, and assets must be allocated in a balanced way" is contradictory. If stocks and bonds are indeed seesaws, where one goes up and the other goes down, allocating an equal amount to each asset would result in a combined performance of zero. After deducting management fees, the total performance would be negative, possibly as low as -3%. In light of this, it may seem pointless to manage money and it would be better to simply save it.

投信要投資人股票高點賣掉之後轉去買債券唯一的原因是
不願意資金被贖回去而抽不到管理費。
投信永遠看多，只知一味看多算哪門子專家？
找一條狗來問，也會「旺！旺！旺！」

The primary reason why fund companies recommend that investors sell stock funds at a high price and then switch to buying bonds is to prevent redemptions and potential loss of management fees.
Fund companies always maintain a bullish outlook, what kind of experts are they? Even asking a dog will result in a "woof woof woof" response.

台大企管系畢業的同學告訴我，
該校財務管理系名教授也是教「股債是蹺蹺板」，
差點讓我從椅子上跌下來。
請問李教授，股債都是公司發行的籌資工具，
差別在於一個不用還本，一個要還，
公司發生什麼事會讓一個漲，另一個跌？

A student who graduated from the Department of Business Administration at National Taiwan University told me that a well-known professor in the Financial Management department also teaches that "equity and debt are like a seesaw." This almost made me fall off my chair. Professor Li, stocks and bonds are simply financing tools issued by companies. The difference is that one does not require the repayment of principal, while the other must be repaid. How does what happens to the company affect one rising and the other falling?

問同學為何只會在討論區踢館，
而不敢向教授挑戰，
同學神回「因為成績是教授打的！」

I asked the students why they only challenged me in discussion forums but were hesitant to ask the professor. The student replied, "It's because the professor is the one who grades us!"

債券是固定收益，漲跌幅雖然較小，但仍跟股票一樣會跌。
想靠固定收益的債券發大財不容易，
沒必要在投資組合裡加入債券，
看好股市應全力押股票，何必把一部分錢花在漲幅較小的債券上！
看空股市則減碼擺現金，為何要買一樣會跌的債券？

Bonds are fixed-income securities, and although their price fluctuations are relatively small, they can still decline, just like stocks.. Making a fortune off fixed-income bonds is not easy. Therefore, there is no need to include bonds in a portfolio. If you are bullish on the stock market, you should invest all your money in stocks, rather than allocating some of it to bonds with smaller gains. If you are bearish on the stock market, you should reduce your holdings and keep cash, rather than buying bonds that may also fall in price.

許多人以為只要抱到最後就不會跌穩賺債息。
問題是一般人不會抱到最後，債券ETF也無最後到期日，
所以仍得面對債券價格波動。

Many investors believe that as long as they hold the bonds until maturity, they will earn interest and avoid losses. However, the issue is that most investors do not hold the bonds until maturity, and bond ETFs do not have a specific maturity date. Therefore, investors still have to confront bond price fluctuations.

2021年2月同學提議買債券領息退休，
我當時即反對，因她們忽略債券價格也會下跌。
話才講完，BOND就連跌一年，跌了22%。
最後，買債券可以抗通膨安穩退休嗎？
2023年5月美國升息到高點，
Market Watch報導「經通膨調整後，股票是過去十年中唯一正報酬的資產」，
事實殘酷證明買債券不能抗通膨。

In February 2021, a few students suggested investing in bonds for generating retirement income. I immediately opposed the idea, as they failed to consider the possibility of bond prices declining. Soon after I expressed my opinion, bond prices began to fall and continued to do so for a year, resulting in a 22% decrease.

Ultimately, can purchasing bonds provide a reliable retirement income that can endure inflation and ensure a stable retirement? In May 2023, the United States raised interest rates to their highest point, and Market Watch reported that "Stocks were the only positive asset class over the last decade, adjusted for inflation." The harsh reality has demonstrated that buying bonds is not a reliable strategy to combat inflation.

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#132

發表於 2018-1-2 08:51 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 21/21：技術分析
Lecture 21/21 Technical analysis

許多人股票喜歡跑短線，以為台股交易成本低，
手續費僅0.1425%，證交稅0.3%，
其實不然，實際算一遍給大家看。
故事的起源是2003年我在北投上課時，
有一位同學叫阿平，從南投到北投來上課。

Many investors enjoy engaging in speculative trading, believing that the trading costs for Taiwan stocks are very low. This is due to the commission fee of only 0.1425% and the transaction tax of 0.3%. However, this assumption is not entirely accurate. Allow me to provide a detailed calculation. The story behind this issue dates back to 2003 when I was teaching in a classroom located in Beitou. One of my students, named Aping, traveled from Nantou county to attend my class in Beitou district.

阿平上課時很勇於舉手發問，
一直用技術分析觀點來挑戰我的巴菲特，
本班歡迎同學學過邪門歪道的功夫儘量使出來沒關係。
下課時跟阿平聊了一下，
他曾花了10萬元在台中拜技術分析高人為師，
自認為技術分析很厲害。
我一聽很不是滋味，因那時巴班學費才5,000元，
心想差距怎麼如此大？
堂堂武林第一大門派的巴菲特班，學費5,000元，
什麼鳥不見經傳的技術分析學費10萬元。

Aping enthusiastically raised his hand to ask questions and even challenged Buffett from a technical analysis perspective during the class. As an open and inclusive classroom, we welcomed all challenges and discussions.

After class, I had a chat with Aping. He mentioned that he had spent NT$100,000 to learn technical analysis from teachers in Taichung and felt confident in his skills. I was taken aback by the large discrepancy between his tuition and mine, which was only NT$5,000. It made me wonder why the gap was so significant. While Buffett is regarded as the first investment master, technical analysis tuition seems to be significantly overpriced and unranked in comparison.

上完課後同學一起通伊媚兒，
當時尚無討論區，用伊媚兒在討論。
阿平的伊媚兒都是前面哈拉幾句之後最後就跑出3個號碼，
問我這3家公司可否好很久？
那3個號碼都是新上櫃、獲利不到5億元的公司。
心想這傢伙故意來搗亂，
上課時特別強調上市櫃滿2年，獲利大於5億元，
阿平問的全是相反的公司。
那3家公司我完全不認識，
當時初為人師還充滿教學熱誠，
花了一下午查資料、做研究，
回信回去，1、2、3，
1、2、3，
1、2、3，
寫了9大點回去。

After the class, the students communicated with each other through emails since there was no discussion forum available at the time. In one of Aping's emails, he included three numbers at the end and asked whether these three newly listed companies were viable for the long term. However, all three companies had profits below NT$500 million, which did not meet the criteria I had emphasized in class, which was a two-year presence in the market and a profit exceeding NT$500 million. I suspected that Aping was deliberately trying to stir up trouble. As I was still passionate about teaching at the time, I spent an entire afternoon researching and gathering information on these three companies. I came up with nine points in my response and replied to Aping with the numbers 1, 2, and 3 written three times. I hoped that this would clarify my stance on the matter and provide valuable insights for the rest of the students.

2天之後來第二封信，又是哈拉幾句之後3個新的號碼出現，
我再次花一下午研究寫了9大點回去。
現在同學若要這樣做我就不理你了，
因為已沒了教學熱誠，只剩收學費的熱誠。
昨天心情比較嗨，今天就混了，
因今天沒學費可收。
同學教我「那還不簡單，就今天收一半學費，隔天再收另一半，
這樣就每天有錢收！」
我說「才不像你那麼笨咧，這樣第二天就沒人來了，」
「我應該第一天收 1 萬元，隔天退差額｣

Two days later, I received a second letter from Aping, which included three new numbers after a few sentences. I spent another afternoon researching and writing down nine key points to reply. If my students were to act in the same manner, I would ignore them because my passion for teaching had been replaced by a passion for collecting tuition fees. Yesterday, I was in high spirits, but today I felt demotivated since there were no tuition fees to collect. One of my students suggested, "It's simple. Collect half of the tuition fee today and the other half tomorrow. This way, you can collect money every day!" I replied, "I'm not as foolish as you. If I did that, no one would show up the next day. Instead, I should collect the full tuition fee of 10,000 NT dollars on the first day and refund any remaining balance on the following day."

隔了2天之後又來了第三封信，我就抓狂，
不回了直接打電話問他問真的還是假的？
「問真的啊！」阿平答，
「你怎麼可能有那麼錢買那麼多股票？」我不解
「第一封信那3支股票買了沒？」，
他回「買了，已經賣了。」
「蛤！那麼快，第二封信的3支呢？」我再問，
「也賣掉了」他應，
我更吃驚「那第三封信這3支應還沒買吧？因為我還沒回。」
阿平一付輕鬆狀「沒關係，也賣掉了。」
好里佳在，第三封沒回，
才知道原來他每2到3天就換股一次。

Two days later, the third letter arrived, and it drove me crazy. Instead of replying via email, I called him and asked if he was serious about these stocks.
"Absolutely," Aping replied.
"How do you have so much money to buy all these stocks?" I inquired.
"Did you buy the three stocks from the first letter?" he asked.
"I bought and sold them," he replied.
"Oh! That was fast. What about the three stocks in the second letter?" I asked again.
"I sold those too," he responded.
I was even more surprised. "Did you buy the three stocks in the third letter yet? I haven't replied yet."
"It's fine, I already sold them," Aping said casually.
Luckily, I didn't reply to the third letter, and I found out that he changes his shares every 2 to 3 days.

問他跑來跑去有賺到錢嗎？
阿平表示「有，每年大概賺個幾萬元。」
他說他每年成交額上億元，
成交額上億元本金不用多少錢，100萬元即可，
每周買賣一次，成交額就上億元(=100萬x2x52)。
他覺得很奇怪過年時營業員都會送他禮物，
我說「當然，因為營業員賺得比你多。」
成交額1億元，手續費0.1425%，
營業員和券商即賺14萬元，比阿平賺幾萬元多。
「可是我賺最少，才5,000元，」我怒吼著
「工作卻最多！」

I inquired if Aping made money from speculative trading, to which he replied that he earns tens of thousands of Taiwan dollars annually. He claimed to have a turnover exceeding NT$100 million, which isn't difficult to achieve with a principal of just NT$1 million. With weekly transactions, turnover would surpass NT$100 million (= 1 million x 2x52). Aping was surprised that his broker gave him gifts during the New Year, but I explained that it's because the broker's income exceeds his. With a turnover of NT$100 million and a commission fee of 0.1425%, brokers and securities companies earn NT$140,000, more than Aping. I grumbled that I earn the least, only NT$5,000, but Aping remarked that it's the hardest.

當年我真的充滿教學熱誠
「來，幫你算一下一年的交易成本多高？」
阿平是2-3天買賣一次，
放寬假設每2周買賣一次，
每月買賣2次，1 年玩24次。

Back then, I was really enthusiastic about teaching. "Come on, let me help you calculate how high the transaction costs would be for a year?" Aping trades once every 2-3 days. Relaxing the assumption that trades occur every 2 weeks, buying and selling twice a month, and playing 24 times a year.

手續費0.1425%，買賣都要付，
1 年24次，一年手續費即6.8%
手續費：0.1425%x 2 (一買一賣) x 24 = 6.8%

The commission fee is 0.1425% per transaction, and it must be paid for each trade. With 24 trades a year, the total commission fee for one year would be 6.8%.
Commission fee: 0.1425% x 2 (one buy and one sell) x 24 = 6.8%

證交稅給政府的0.3%，賣時才課，
1 年24次，一年證交稅7.2%
證交稅：0.3% x 24 = 7.2%

The transaction tax is 0.3%, which is a government tax that is only charged upon selling.
With 24 transactions a year, the annual tax payment is 7.2%.
Transaction tax：0.3% x 24 = 7.2%

1 年的交易成本，手續費+證交稅等於14%。
同學知道我一年的交易成本多少嗎？
我2008年買台積電、大統益抱到2017年都沒賣，
一年交易成本是萬分2不到。

The total transaction cost for one year, including commission fee and transaction tax, is 14%. Do you know how much my annual transaction cost is? I purchased TSMC in 2008, and I did not sell it until 2017. The transaction cost for one year was only 0.02%, which is extremely low.

做這麼短必定融資，
融資是出4元可買到10元，成本將暴增為35%(=14% x10/4)，
加上融資利息，融資利率6%，
融資利息占本金9%(=6% x 6/4)，
總共的交易成本44%(=35%+9%)，
未玩之前先賠掉一半，這樣怎麼可能賺錢。

It is necessary to finance speculative trading, which involves paying NT$4 to purchase NT$10 worth of stocks. The transaction cost will skyrocket to 35% (=14% x 10/4). In addition to this, there is also financing interest which is charged at a rate of 6%. This financing interest accounts for 9% of the principal amount (=6% x 6/4). Therefore, the total transaction cost is 44% (=35% + 9%). This means that half of the investment is lost before even starting the trade, making it very difficult to make any profit.

台股證交稅是世界屬一屬二的高，
之所以這麼高是因當年郭婉容課證所稅失敗，
造成股市19天無量下跌，
政府為了善後把證所稅取消併入證交稅，
由證交稅由0.15%增為0.3%。
台股證交稅裡已包含證所稅，
請蛋頭學者和政客們勿冤枉投資人賺了錢不繳稅。

Taiwan has the highest transaction tax rate in the world. In the past, former Minister of Finance Wanrong Guo implemented a capital gains tax, which led to the stock market crashing for 19 consecutive days. To rectify the situation, the government abolished the capital gains tax and increased the transaction tax rate from 0.15% to 0.3%. As a result, the capital gains tax was incorporated into the transaction tax. Therefore, egghead scholars and politicians should not blame Taiwanese investors for not paying taxes on their earnings. We have paid transaction tax.

在這種制度下，跑短線投資人最不利，
沒賺到錢卻在仍然在繳證所稅。

Under this system, speculative traders are at a disadvantageous position as they have to pay capital gains tax even before making any profits.

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#133

發表於 2018-1-2 08:57 資料主頁文集私人訊息

最後要來上一下技術分析，
本班以後將轉型成技術分析班，
學費酌予調高為10萬元，
因為學費差太多，受不了。
本班將改名為巴菲特技術分析班，
誰說巴菲特不會技術分析？
搞不好祂會，而且只有我知道祂會。

Let's conclude with a technical analysis course. In the future, this course will be converted into a technical analysis class and the tuition fee will be raised to NT$100,000. The significant disparity in tuition fees is difficult to tolerate. Moreover, we will rename this course to Buffett's Technical Analysis Class. Who said that Buffett is unfamiliar with technical analysis? Perhaps he is knowledgeable in the field, and only a few people are aware of it.

先做個市場調查，請問學過技術分析的同學舉手？
只有少數幾位，
沒舉手的都麥假，不相信都沒學過。
大家學投資的過程應該差不多，
由技術分析入門，再進入基本面分析，
我們比別人又多一走步到巴菲特領域來。

Let's conduct a market survey first. Who here has studied technical analysis? Only a few of you? For those who didn't raise your hands, you're probably just pretending because I don't believe that you haven't learned it yet. The process of learning how to invest should be similar for everyone: starting with technical analysis and then moving on to fundamental analysis. By taking this step, we are one step ahead of others in entering into Buffett's realm.

我是統計碩士，高深數學也學過一些，
初見到技術分析時倍感親切，因那是很簡單的數學，
以為可以學以致用。

I hold a master's degree in statistics and have a background in advanced mathematics, so when I first encountered technical analysis, it felt familiar to me. It involves simple mathematical operations, and I thought I could apply my knowledge to it.

1991年進證券業，92年是台股最低迷時刻，
一整天交易下來成交值曾低到40億元，
當時上市公司的獲利並普遍很差，
電子股代工訂單尚未大量進來，
只有翁大銘和雷伯龍的股票會動，
我們雖然號稱技術分析和基本面分析並重，
實在感覺不出基本面對股價到底有何關係。

In 1991, I began working in the securities industry, and in 1992, the Taiwan stock market experienced its worst moment. Despite a full day of trading, the transaction value was as low as NT$4 billion, and listed companies were generally not profitable. Large-scale electronics OEM orders had not yet arrived in Taiwan, so only stocks manipulated by big players like Daming Wong and Bolong Lei would rise. Although we claimed to focus on both technical and fundamental analysis, I did not feel that the stock price had anything to do with fundamentals.

1993年到怡富證券，台灣最大外資券商，
跟著學外資基本面分析。
外資對基本面研究要求非常嚴格，
看過怡富日本總體經濟報告，一個博士帶一個碩士寫的，
自創一些指標觀察日本經濟狀況，
其深度比台灣的台經院、中經院報告難多了。

In 1993, I joined Jardine Fleming Securities, the largest foreign securities company in Taiwan, and learned fundamental analysis from foreign experts. Foreign research departments have very high standards for fundamental analysis. I read an economic report on Japan from Jardine Fleming Japan, which was written by a doctor and a master's student. They created some indicators to observe Japan's economic situation, and their depth of analysis was much more difficult than the reports from Taiwan Institute of Economic Research and Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research.

我們研究員早上7:00多就得到公司看報紙，
不是喝咖啡聊是非，而是跟打戰一樣，
看當天所負責的產業和公司有無發生什麼大事。
有一天一則小方塊新聞
「中華映管發生火災燒掉2條生產線」讓我跳了起來。
當年華映非常賺錢，是大同的金雞母，大同持股91%，
馬上我就得估出損失多少？何時復工？
大同獲利須調低多少？股價可能跌多少？
對大同的建議是買或賣？
整個評估須在半個小時完成，因為8:00要開會報告。

As analysts, we start our day by reading newspapers around 7:00 in the morning. It's not a leisurely coffee break, but more like a battle. We scan for any major events in the industry and companies that we are responsible for that day. One short news piece can make a huge impact. For example, when news broke that a fire had destroyed two production lines in Chunghwa Picture Tubes, I immediately jumped into action. At that time, Chunghwa Picture Tubes was a very profitable company, and it was a cash cow for Datong with 91% of the shares. I had to estimate how much loss would occur, when work would resume, how much Tatung's earnings estimate should be reduced, how much the stock price might fall, and whether to recommend Tatung to buy or sell. I had to complete the entire assessment within half an hour, because the meeting was scheduled for 8:00.

券商都會給客戶盤勢分析，
國內券商的寫法是先把本周發生的大事分析一遍，
最後結論常會冒出一句
「下周觀盤重點是Fed可能調高利率，請投資人密切觀察。」
我們研究部主管英國老外就會說，
若下周觀盤重點是Fed可能調高利率，
前面那些就不要寫了，直接把這個題目拿到前面來寫，
而且不是叫投資人密切觀察，
投資人就是不會觀察才來看你的報告，你卻叫他自己觀察。

Brokerage firms provide customers with market analysis reports, and the reports of domestic securities companies analyze what will happen in the upcoming week. The final conclusion of such a report may state that the key to observing the market next week is the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates, and investors must pay close attention to it. Our research head, who is British, would advise us to make this the main focus of the report and to elaborate on it, without distracting the readers with previous topics. We should not ask investors to observe closely, as they tend not to do so. Instead, we should present the information clearly in our report, as investors rely on us to do the analysis for them.

Fed調高利率報告要怎麼寫：
利率將調高幾碼？理由為何？
對股市的影響為何？哪些類股受創？哪些獲利？
我問主管「我又不是葛林斯潘，哪知利率會調高幾碼？」
老外說「要去假設啊，我們不在意結果對不對，
而是推理過程要合理！」
這就是外資研究員的訓練過程。

When writing a report on a potential Fed rate hike, we must answer several questions:
How much will interest rates increase and why?
What impact will it have on the stock market? Which sectors will be impacted and which will profit?
I once asked my research head, "I'm not the chairman of the Federal Reserve, how can I know how much interest rates will rise?"
The British replied, "You must make an assumption. We don't care if the results are correct, but the reasoning process should be reasonable!"
This is the training process for foreign analysts.

後來我發現外資這套基本面分析方法也是錯的，
因為用了太多的預估。
股價反應未來，我們都在看未來，都在做預測，
可是預測通常不準。

Later, I realized that even the foreign fundamental analysis method was flawed because it heavily relied on assumptions and estimations. As stock prices reflect the future, we are all essentially predicting and making assumptions about the future, but such predictions are often inaccurate.

現在認為巴菲特理論才是對的，
因祂強調要根據可知事實來做決策。
這兩天下來同學一定察覺到我在回答同學問題時
都明確告訴大家我知道什麼？不知什麼？
然後根據知道的去分析，
這才是對的，出錯的機率較低。

I now believe in Buffett's theory, which emphasizes that decision-making should be based on known facts. Over the past two days, you may have noticed that when I answer your questions, I am transparent about what I know and what I don't. Analyzing based on what we know reduces the possibility of errors.

mikeon88

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118.169.162.107

#134

發表於 2018-1-2 08:59 資料主頁文集私人訊息

我會技術分析，而且非常會，
只是認為技術分析都是錯的。
這樣講一定得罪了得多人，技術分析是市場主流，
有人勸我話不要講得這麼直白，婉轉一點
「方法沒有好壞能讓我們賺錢的就是好方法，
條條大路通羅馬。」

I am proficient in technical analysis, but I believe that it is fundamentally flawed. Expressing such a view may offend many people since technical analysis is widely adopted in the market. Some advise me to be more subtle and less straightforward. As the saying goes, "there is no good or bad method as long as it helps us make money. All roads lead to Rome."

條條大道通羅馬我同意，可是死巷子不會通羅馬啊，
方法當然有對錯之分，方法錯誤怎麼能賺到錢。

I agree that all roads lead to Rome, but dead-end streets won't lead to Rome. There is a right and wrong approach, and if the approach is wrong, how can one make money?

上這堂課發現要教同學新的觀念簡單，
叫同學看ROE、盈再率絕對都會去看，
可是要糾正舊思想卻是非常困難。

I found it relatively easy to teach new concepts to my students in this class. By emphasizing the importance of paying attention to ROE and PR%, the students were able to follow along. However, correcting old and deeply ingrained ideas can be challenging.

跟同學說不必在意營收、EPS，
同學反嗆「看這些有什麼錯？」，
因為這樣去買宸鴻賠了錢，
同學回來檢討不是反省他看營收、EPS，
而是推責於盈再表不能用。
上課時特別強調「宏達電、宸鴻的產品會變，
不是我們想買的公司。」
同學充耳不聞，賠了錢還把責任賴給我。

When I told my students not to focus on sales and EPS, they challenged me, "What's wrong with looking at those?" After losing money from buying shares of TPK, instead of reflecting on their own reliance on sales and EPS, they blamed the uselessness of On's table. In class, I emphasized that "HTC and TPK's products will change, not the durable companies we want to invest in." However, my students turned a deaf ear and even held me responsible for their losses.

教課之初原以為只要把方法詳細講解一遍，
同學按照要領去練，自然可學成神功，
可是執行下來卻不是這麼回事。
哥打的是一套太極拳，
同學耍出來卻像在跳街舞。
上完課之後同學都大讚這個方法很好
「以後一定用巴菲特方法選股，技術分析操作！」
說他是「左手索羅斯，右手巴菲特」，
以為這樣績效將勝過兩位大師。
錯了！這樣根本不是巴菲特神功了。

In the beginning of my teaching, I believed that if I explained Buffett's method in detail and students followed the essentials, they would naturally learn magical skills. However, this wasn't the case in practice. It felt like I was playing Tai Chi while the students were dancing hip-hop. After every class, the students praised the method, saying that they would use the Buffett method to select stocks and time their trades with technical analysis. One student even compared themselves to Soros on the left and Buffett on the right, thinking they could outperform the two masters. But this is not the true magic of Buffett's method.

很多人以為只要把各大門派功夫全學一遍，
取其精華，即能成為武林盟主。
剛好相反，反而會走火入魔，
表示哪些觀念是錯的分不清楚。

Many people think that as long as they learn all the martial arts, extract their essence, they can become the leader of the martial arts. On the contrary, they may become delusional and lose their way because they cannot distinguish which concepts or skills are wrong.

那些技術分析派終其一生都不知錯在哪兒？
所以有必要給他們當頭棒喝，讓他們清醒。
我來告訴大家技術分析錯在哪裡，
不服的人可以上來踢館。

Those who are devoted to technical analysis may never realize where they went wrong. Therefore, it's necessary to wake them up with a strong message. Let me explain what's wrong with technical analysis, and those who disagree are welcome to challenge me.

mikeon88

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#135

發表於 2018-1-2 09:04 資料主頁文集私人訊息

技術分析最基本的東西就是一堆技術指標，
RSI、KD值、D-MACD...等等。
近年還有一個新指標Vix，恐慌指數，
我說恐慌還需看指數，自己照照鏡子就知道了。

Technical analysis relies heavily on various technical indicators, such as RSI, KD value, and D-MACD. However, a new indicator has emerged in recent years called Vix, also known as the panic index. But do we really need an indicator to tell us when we're panicking? Sometimes, all we need to do is look in the mirror.

這些指標基本的架構是
當指標從低檔20往上交叉可以買進，
從高檔80往下叉賣出。

The general guideline for these indicators is to buy when the indicator crosses upwards from a low of 20, and to sell when it drops from a high of 80.

它的邏輯是指標往上可以買進，因為接下來股價會漲，
這是錯的，
因為技術指標是股價算出來的結果，
是股價先漲了才帶動指標往上，
指標是果，不是因，
不能再拿它來推接下來股價會漲，
錯在倒果為因。

The logic behind technical analysis is that when the indicator rises, you can buy because the stock price will rise next. This is incorrect because technical indicators are calculated based on stock prices. The stock price rises first, and then the indicator follows suit. In other words, the indicator is the result, not the cause. It cannot be used to push stock prices to rise next. Misinterpreting the indicator as the cause rather than the result confuses the cause and effect.

同學把KD值和大盤指數做對照，發現蠻相關的，
指數在低檔，KD值就在低；指數高，KD值也高。
同學說「既然相關就可以用啊，管它倒不倒果為因。」

The students compared the KD value with the market index and found a significant correlation. When the market index is low, the KD value tends to be low as well, and vice versa - when the index is high, the KD value tends to be high. The student commented, "There is a clear relationship, and it can be utilized. Not to mention the question of causality."

可不可以用？不是事後來看，而要到事前看。
如何回到事前？
很簡單，把圖的右邊蓋起來就回到事前。
請看，KD值正由低檔往上交叉，股價要漲了嗎？

The question is not whether we can use the indicator after the fact, but whether we can use it to make predictions beforehand. So how do we get back to beforehand? It's simple - cover the right side of the chart and look at the pre-event period. For instance, observe how the KD value rises from low to high. Does this mean that the stock index will rise as well?

跌！從6,365跌到3,098，反而是跌。
自認技術分析很厲害的人，
請把股價圖右邊蓋起來看能猜對幾次？

The stock price fell dramatically from 6,365 to 3,098. For those who consider themselves skilled in technical analysis, try covering the right side of the stock chart and see how many times you can accurately predict the future direction of the stock price.

再看，這一點2,485，30年來難得的買點，
畫一條直線往下拉，KD值破40，
正值主跌段，還會加碼放空。
2,485依KD值竟加碼放空，實在離譜。

Consider the stock price at the rare purchase point of 2,485 - a level not seen in 30 years. Draw a straight line downwards and notice that the KD value falls below 40. This indicates a significant downturn in the market, and it would have been wise to short the stock during this period of major decline. However, it's important to note that at the time, the KD value suggested even more frantic short sales - an ironic observation.

技術指標還有一個盲點，股價在盤整時就會被巴來巴去，
股價大部分時間在盤整，被巴來巴去又怎樣呢？
期貨營業員曾告訴我，那一陣子指數在盤整，
客戶打電話來「技術指標又叫我要買進，
可是我已經被巴了8次。這次不曉得要不要買進？
那...那你幫我決定好了！」即掛上電話，
營業員愣在那邊「這樣算不算下單呢？」
被巴了8次就成這副德性。

Technical indicators have a blind spot, causing stock prices to fluctuate during periods of consolidation, which happens most of the time. What's the point of being tossed back and forth? Once, a futures broker told me that during a period of index consolidation, a customer called in and said, "The technical indicators are telling me to buy again, but I've been misled eight times. Should I buy this time? Then...you can decide for me!" and hung up the phone. The broker was left stunned, wondering, "Is that an order?" If you've been tossed back and forth eight times and still don't know what to do, that's the approach you're taking.

起漲型態
The rising pattern

mikeon88 發表於 2018-1-16 10:43

股價上漲一定會產生V或W底，
下跌就變成M頭，
拿支筆在紙上一畫便知，這是一句廢話
技術分析真荒謬 ! !

A stock price rise will definitely produce a V or W bottom,
If it falls, it will become an M head,
Take a pen and draw on paper and you will know that this is nonsense.
Technical analysis is ridiculous!!

同學的方法是股價便宜＋起漲型態，
這樣成功的機率可能會比單純的起漲型態高些，
但會有一番爭論，
到底是預期報酬率影響較顯著，還是起漲型態？
主張這個方法的人請提出證明，別只開頭而無下文。

Jiunci Yang's method involves identifying stocks that are priced low and exhibit a rising pattern. While this approach may offer a higher probability of success compared to simply relying on a rising pattern, there may be debates as to what factors have a greater impact on investment success - expected returns or rising patterns.
Those who advocate for this method should provide evidence to support their claims, rather than simply making a statement without any further elaboration

技術指標背離 ?
Deviation ?

今天有位同學問我，
技術指標背離代表什麼意思 ?

Today, a student asked me what "deviation" means.

技術指標設定下限為 0 ，
股價再怎麼跌，指標最低跌到 0 ，
不會變負的，
所以跌到後來指標就鈍化，
即所謂的技術指標背離。

Technical indicators are typically set with a lower limit of 0. This means that even if the stock price drops significantly, the indicator will not become negative as long as the lowest point is still above 0. However, as the stock price falls, the indicator may become less sensitive and less useful, which is referred to as deviation from the technical indicator.

這是公式設定必然的道理，
而非隱含了什麼不為人知的市場轉變。
只要把下限拿掉，
讓下跌可以跌到負的或無限，
就不會出現指標背離。
數學不太差的人都能理解這個道理。

This is the result produced by the formula, and does not imply any unknown market changes.
By removing the lower limit and allowing for negative and infinite values as the stock price declines, there will be no deviation in the indicator. This is a fact that can be understood even by those who are not very proficient in math.

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