講稿與盈再表免費下載

巴菲特班洪瑞泰 (Michael On) » 討論區1 » 講稿與盈再表免費下載

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#91

發表於 2018-1-1 19:25 資料主頁文集私人訊息

股價反映常利，而非淨利，
GSK是明顯例子，
用淨利算GSK股價是貴的。

Stock prices are based on recurring profit rather than net profit, which is exemplified by GSK. Using net profit to calculate GSK's stock price would be expensive.

可是以常利來算卻是便宜的，
股價跌到此就跌不下了，
顯示股價反映常利，而非淨利。

However, using recurring profit to calculate GSK's stock price is cheap. The stock price cannot fall below the cheap price, indicating that the stock price reflects recurring profit rather than net profit.

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#92

發表於 2018-1-1 19:35 資料主頁文集私人訊息

我們要用股息折現公式(IRR)來算投資報酬率，
買進價等未來8年股息和賣出價的折現值，
所謂折現值是除以1+r的幾次方，
r = 平均報酬率，
用這個價格買進，持有未來8年，平均每年報酬率 r。

The internal rate of return (IRR) is utilized for computing the return on investment. The purchase price is determined by discounting the value of dividends and the selling price over the next 8 years. The discounted value is then divided by the power of 1+r, where r denotes the average rate of return. One should purchase the asset at this price and hold it for the next 8 years, earning an average annual rate of return r.

這條公式是投資學上最重要的公式，
不管做任何投資都用它來算報酬率，
股票、債券、房子、黃金、保險…均適用。
花1千萬元買一幢房子，租出去每年可收10萬元租金，
第8年以1,200萬元賣掉，8年下來年平均報酬率即 r。

This formula is considered the most crucial in investment science. Regardless of the investment type, it can be applied to calculate the rate of return. This includes stocks, bonds, houses, gold, insurance, and more. For instance, suppose a house costs $10 million to purchase, with an annual rent of $100,000. If sold for $12 million in the eighth year, the average annual rate of return after eight years would be denoted as r.

折現公式源自底下觀念：
100元投資 1 年變120，這句話寫成數學式子如何表示？
100(1+r) = 120

The IRR is based on the fundamental concept of an investment of $100 transforming into $120 in one year. This sentence can be expressed in mathematical formula as: 100(1+r) = 120.

把100改成「買」，120改為「息1＋賣」
即得買(1+r) = 息1＋賣
移項，買=息1/(1+r) ＋賣/(1+r)......(1式)

Change 100 to "buy" and 120 to "dividend1 + sell"
then buy (1+r) = dividend 1 + sell
Transfer item, buy = dividend 1/(1+r) + sell/(1+r)......(Formula 1)

再來，100元投資2年變120，這句話如何用式子表示？
100(1+r)^2 = 120

Next, investment of $100 will change to $120 in 2 years.
How to express this sentence in a formula ?
100(1+r)^2 = 120

把100改成「買」，120改為「息2＋賣」
得買=息2/(1+r)^2＋賣/(1+r)^2......(2式)

Change 100 to "buy" and 120 to "dividend2 + sell"
Get buy=dividend2/(1+r)^2＋ sell/(1+r)^2......(Formula 2)

買股票的狀況是：
買了股票，第1年配息1，第2年配息2及股票賣出，
其實是1式和2式的綜合：
買了股票＝買
第1年配息1 ＝息1/(1+r)
第2年配息2 ＝息2/(1+r)^2
股票賣出＝賣/(1+r)^2
所以買 = 息1/(1+r)+息2/(1+r)^2+...+賣/(1+r)^2

The status of buying stocks is:
I bought the stock, the first year dividend1, the second year dividend2 and the stock sold,
It is actually a combination of Formula 1 and Formula 2:
Stock bought = buy
First year dividend1 = dividend1/(1+r)
Second year dividend2 = dividend2/(1+r)^2
Stock sold = sell/(1+r)^2
So buy = dividend1/(1+r)+dividend2/(1+r)^2+...+sell/(1+r)^2

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#93

發表於 2018-1-1 19:42 資料主頁文集私人訊息

這裡有3個問題：
1. 股息有無再投入買股？
有人把折現公式兩邊乘以(1+r)^8，展開之後式子變成
買(1 + r)^8 = 息1(1+r)^7 + 息2(1+r)^6 + ……
乍看之下每年配出來的股息好像有再投入買股？
股息折現公式的股息並未再投入。

There are 3 questions here:
1. Are dividends reinvested in stock purchases ?
Someone multiplies both sides of discount formula by (1+r)^8, and the formula becomes
Buy (1 + r)^8 = dividend1(1+r)^7 + dividend2(1+r)^6 + ……
At first glance, it seems that dividends paid out every year have been invested in buying shares ?
Dividends of dividend discount formula are not reinvested.

底下式子才是有再投入，
股息再投入買股，則分子為0，
最後賣出價將不只 1 股而是好幾股

The formula below is used for reinvesting dividends. If dividends are used to purchase shares, the numerator will be 0. The final selling price will not be for a single share but for multiple shares.

謝謝陳新元桑指導。

Thanks to Sinyuen Chen for his instruction.

2. 股子呢，擺在哪裏？
股子和母股全歸到最後的賣出價，賣 = 母股+子股。

2. Where are the stock dividends?
The stock dividends, along with the parent stock, are both factored into the final selling price. Therefore, the selling price equals the sum of the parent stock and the stock dividends.

3. 為何要假設到8年？
同學看到8年就頭皮發麻，
說「我股票連8天都沒抱過，遑論8年！」
這條公式未強制要抱多久，只是算一個數字給大家參考。
任何投資理論都要時間夠長才會成立，
我的主張「高ROE，便宜買，保證能賺到大錢」
須在什麼前題下才成立？時間要夠長！

3. Why should we assume a period of 8 years?
The assumption of an 8-year period made some students uneasy and they exclaimed, "I haven't held stocks for 8 days, let alone 8 years!" However, it is important to note that this formula does not mandate any specific holding period but rather provides a reference point. Investment theories are typically based on sufficiently long assumptions. My proposition is to "buy cheap with a high ROE, and guarantee big returns." However, for this proposition to hold true, it must be established under certain prerequisites, with the most critical being a sufficiently long investment horizon.

持有時間要多長？
看還原股價，即便中碳，若僅回顧2年不保證賺錢，
近2年還原股價49-57元，不如歷史最高價95-96元高。
可是回顧5年以上則一定賺錢，
還原股價81-102元，遠高於歷史股價45-60元。

What is the optimal holding period? Examining the adjusted stock price of China Steel Chemical, it is not a guarantee of profit if we only consider the past 2 years. Over this period, the stock price has fluctuated between NT$49-NT$57, which is lower than the historical high of NT$95-NT$96. However, looking back over the past 5 years, it is likely to be profitable as the adjusted stock price has ranged from NT$81-NT$102, much higher than the historical stock price of NT$45-NT$60.

至於5年以上，同學問「為何不取6年、7年，卻挑8年？」
這就無法解釋了，
因整套算法是我當初在那個的時候突然想到，
就草草結束，褲子一拉，出來霹靂叭拉打起來，
當時兵荒馬亂沒想太多，反正8年就給它巴下去。
當這個盈再表是我發明的，又成為大師時，
就不用跟人解釋，
不然...大家都不要用啊！
愛因斯坦說 e = mc^2，他也沒解釋為何要平方啊，
為何不3次方、4次方？
我們同屬大師級的人物就不必解釋了。
難怪有同學罵我得了大頭症！

As for more than 5 years, students asked "Why not pick 6 or 7 years but 8 years ?" This is unexplainable. The whole algorithm was suddenly thought of when I sit there, it ended hastily, and I pulled up my pants, I came out and started fighting. At that time, I didn't think too much about it. Anyway, I gave it to it for 8 years. When I invented this On's table and became a investment master, I don’t have to explain to others. Otherwise...Don't everyone use it ! Einstein said that e = mc^2, and he didn’t explain why it should be squared. Why not 3rd, 4th power ? We both are masters, so there is no need to explain. No wonder some students scolded me for macrocephaly !

後來同學拿1991年報上巴菲特舉的例子要我算給他看，
這答案2,500萬元是怎麼算出來的？
我代入盈再表上IRR的計算表，結果與老巴的答案相同，
該表的年數就是8年，顯見老巴也用8年在算。

A student asked me to demonstrate how Mr. Buffett calculated the answer of $25 million, using an example cited in his 1991 annual report. I used the IRR calculation in On's table and substituted the numbers from the example. The result I obtained was the same as Buffett's. It's worth noting that the table covers an eight-year period, which is consistent with the timeframe used by Buffett.

4. 折現公式指的是股息，而非自由現金流量，
若是用自由現金流量來算，
則擴廠增加資本支出，自由現金流量減少，
內在價值反而下降，這就矛盾了。
擴廠應該可以賺更多的錢，增加內在價值。

4. IRR calculation pertains to dividends, not free cash flow. If calculated based on free cash flow, the increased capital expenditures for factory expansion may reduce free cash flow and lower its intrinsic value, which is a contradiction. The expansion of the factory should lead to higher earnings and an increase in intrinsic value.

5. 折現公式更不是指資產負債表上的現金，
未配出來的現金不屬於股東的報酬。
公司有現金100元，後來倒閉，股價歸0，股東一無所有。
若把100元配息出來，即便後來倒閉股價變成 0，
股東仍保有100元。

5. IRR is not related to cash on the balance sheet. Unallocated cash does not contribute to shareholders' returns. For instance, if a company has $100 in cash and goes bankrupt, with its stock price falling to zero, the shareholders will receive nothing. However, if the company distributes a dividend of $100, the shareholders will still retain the cash even if the stock price falls to zero after bankruptcy.

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#94

發表於 2018-1-1 19:52 資料主頁文集私人訊息

接下來計算未來8年的股息和最後賣出價，
首先要知道起始NAV 18.7＝去年淨值÷最新股數，
因股數抓最新的，遇到除權時貴淑價會跟著調整。

Firstly, we need to determine the starting NAV by dividing last year's net assets by the current number of shares, which is 18.7. As the number of shares is up to date, the stock price will be adjusted accordingly when ex-rights are encountered. Next, we can calculate the dividends and final selling price for the next 8 years.

這個例子用講稿14/21的取法得到預期ROE 21%。
EPS 3.9＝ROE 21% x NAV 18.7

In this example, we apply the method discussed in Lecture 14/21 to calculate an anticipated ROE of 21%.
EPS 3.9＝ROE 21% x NAV 18.7

要算的不是EPS，而是隔年配多少息？
股息 = EPS x 配息率，
需要算未來的預期配息率

The goal is not to calculate EPS but rather to determine the amount of dividends that will be paid out next year. This can be achieved by multiplying EPS by the dividend payout ratio. To do so, we must first calculate the anticipated dividend payout ratio.

預期配息率 = (過去配息率+(1-盈再率))/2

其中 0<1-盈再率<1
為何要跟1-盈再率平均？
因盈再率會影響未來的配息率，
盈再率高，未來配息率低。

Expected dividend payout ratio = (past dividend payout ratio + (1 - PR%))/2

Where 0<1 - PR%<1
Why do we need to calculate the average of 1 - PR%? Because PR% can impact the future dividend payout ratio. Specifically, the higher the PR%, the lower the expected future dividend payout ratio.

過去配息率抓過去3年配息率取中位數，
3 個之中的那一個，取中間值為避免極端值。

The dividend payout ratio for the past three years is the median of the three ratios. The median is the middle value and is utilized to avoid extreme values.

過去3年配息率採純配息率與加計庫藏股配息率之平均，
因若單用純配息率來算會高估預期報酬率；
單用加計庫藏股又低估，
故取兩者平均。

The dividend payout ratio for the past three years is calculated by averaging the pure dividend payout ratio and the payout ratio of added treasury stocks. Relying solely on the pure dividend payout ratio can lead to an overestimation of the expected return, while using only the payout ratio of added treasury stocks can undervalue it. Therefore, we take the average of the two to achieve a more accurate calculation.

最後，預期配息率不得低於過去3年配息率之9成，
這是為保守起見，因在ROE固定下，配息率越低，IRR越高

Lastly, the expected dividend payout ratio should not fall below 90% of the dividend payout ratios in the past three years. This is a conservative measure because, given a fixed ROE, a lower dividend payout ratio results in a higher IRR.

如此可算出預期配息率，
EPS 3.9 x 預期配息率90%＝3.51 隔年股息。

By following these steps, we can calculate the anticipated dividend payout ratio.
EPS 3.9 x expected dividend payout ratio of 90% = 3.51 dividends for the next year.

隔年NAV = 去年NAV + 去年EPS - 去年股息

Next year NAV = last year's NAV + last year's EPS - last year's dividend

接下來依此類推，得到未來8年EPS和股息。

Following this, we can derive the EPS and dividends for the next 8 years accordingly.

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#95

發表於 2018-1-1 19:57 資料主頁文集私人訊息

還要算最後賣出價？
因已得出第8年EPS，乘以最終本益比即賣出價。
最終本益比？
股價最終應回歸到應有價值，
即一年定存利率6.7%的倒數本益比15倍，
抓保守一點12倍就好。

To calculate the final selling price, you can multiply the EPS from the 8th year by the final PER. What is the final PER? The final PER can be determined based on the assumption that the stock price will eventually return to its value. Specifically, the reciprocal of the 6.7% one-year time deposit rate multiplied by 15 times the PER provides a reasonable estimate. However, to be conservative, it may be better to use a multiple of 12 times the PER instead.

有人問不同公司是否給予不同本益比？
因有些公司本益比就是比較高。
不要，本益比固定，比較基礎一致才能比較貴淑。
最終本益比設多少都沒關係，設成1萬倍也可以，
只要所有股票標準一致即可。

Is the PER different for each company? Yes, the PER can vary across different companies, and some companies may have higher PERs than others. However, a fixed PER can be used as a consistent basis for determining whether a stock is cheap or expensive. The actual value of the PER doesn't matter as long as it is the same for all stocks being compared, even if it is set at a high value like 10,000 times.

本益比高或低往往是十年河東，十年河西的事。
微軟在90年代本益比30倍，
2010年代則掉到10倍，因獨占地位受到Android 挑戰。

PER often changes every 10 years. For instance, Microsoft's PER was 30 times in the 1990s. However, in 2010, it dropped to 10 times due to the challenge posed by Android to its monopoly position.

請問以上計算過程有沒有問題？
通常這一段都不會有問題，而且還睡成一片。
計算過程聽不懂沒有關係，考試不會考，
只要會看最後答案即可，看預期報酬率多少？

Are there any issues with the above calculation process? Typically, this part is unproblematic, and it tends to put people to sleep. It is not necessary to understand the calculation process fully, as this is not typically tested on exams. You can simply focus on the final answer: what is the expected return?

未來8年股息和最後賣價算出來之後即可代入折現公式，
公式變成一元八次方方程式，
在國中因式分解教過如何解，
同學有興趣上來解解看嗎？國中數學而已。
不用自己解，Excel有一個函數IRR
可以算出預期報酬率 r = 10%。

Once the dividends for the next 8 years and the final selling price have been calculated, they can be substituted into the IRR equation. This formula can be transformed into a one-variable eighth power equation that can be solved using factorization, which is a math concept that students learn in junior high school. However, students do not necessarily need to solve it themselves, as Excel has an IRR function that can do the calculations. The expected return can be calculated as r = 10%.

IRR(-47.0買, 3.51息, 3.67息, …, 4.18息, (4.29息+58.7賣))
= 10% = r 預期報酬

IRR (-47.0 buy, 3.51 dividend, 3.67 dividend, …, 4.18 dividend, (4.29 dividend + 58.7 sell))
= 10% = r expected return

10%不够好，因我們要求的淑價預期報酬率15%，
所對應淑價是多少？
代入NPV函數即得35元。

A 10% expected return is not sufficient, as a 15% expected return is required for a cheap price. What constitutes a cheap price is not specified. However, when the NPV function is substituted, the result is $35.

NPV(15%, 3.51息, 3.67息, …, 4.18息, (4.29息+58.7賣))
= 35.0 淑

股價跌到35元以下買，每年報酬率才有15%才夠便宜。

NPV(15%, 3.51 dividend, 3.67 dividend, …, 4.18 dividend, (4.29 dividend + 58.7 dividend))
= 35.0 S

If the stock price falls below $35, then buying it can be considered cheap enough, as long as it provides an annual rate of return of 15%.

何時賣？貴了，預期報酬率 0，
所對應貴價一樣代入NPV得出貴價86.1元。

NPV(0%, 3.51息, 3.67息, …, 4.18息, (4.29息+58.7賣))
= 86.1 貴

When should you sell a stock? You should sell when the stock becomes expensive, and the expected return drops to 0. An expensive price can be determined by substituting it into the NPV equation. For instance, a price of $86.1 is considered expensive.

NPV(0%, 3.51 dividend, 3.67 dividend, …, 4.18 dividend, (4.29 dividend + 58.7 dividend))
= 86.1 pricey

貴了就該賣掉，因貴了的預期報酬率為負，
表示再抱下去總報酬只會更少不會更多。

If the stock price is deemed pricey you should sell it because the expected return is negative. This means that if you hold on to the stock, the total reward will only decrease, rather than increase.

貴淑價於財報出爐和除權時會變動。
預期報酬率除息時將上升。

Cheap and pricey prices can change when financial reports are released or when ex-rights dates occur. The expected return is expected to rise on the ex-dividend date.

總算講完了，本章是整個課程最多數學的地方，
有位同學不敢置信一個人在馬桶上
竟然可以想出這麼複雜的計算，
一直問我在馬桶上待了多久？
馬桶和蘋果樹都是人類文明的搖籃啊！

In conclusion, I have finished my speech for this section. The mathematical content covered here is the most complex in the entire course. One student couldn't believe that someone would sit on the toilet and contemplate such complicated calculations, and kept asking me how long I had been sitting there. However, toilets and apple trees are the cradles of human civilization!

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#96

發表於 2018-1-1 20:00 資料主頁文集私人訊息

波克夏的估價是目前唯一的例外，
1. 為因應新會計準則，老巴把持股漲跌列為異常利益，
可是持股漲跌應是日常的事，非異常
故盈再表單就BRK，採用淨利而非常利，作為淑貴價的計算
如此ROE看起來較合理

Berkshire Hathaway's valuation calculation currently stands as the only exception.
1. In order to comply with new accounting standards, Mr. Buffett has classified the capital gains of his investment portfolio as exceptional interests. However, fluctuations in holdings are a routine matter and not exceptional. Therefore, the On's table employs net profit instead of recurring profit as the valuation calculation solely for BRK. This results in a more reasonable return on equity (ROE) calculation.

2. 2011年波克夏股價跌到淨值，
老巴即宣布買回庫藏股，生平第一次，且連買了2次，
顯示祂認定淨值是便宜價。
2013年報老巴明白指出波克夏內在價值＝淨值 x 120%，
便宜價是內在價值打8折，便宜價＝淨值。

2. In 2011, the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway fell to its NAV. Mr. Buffett announced that he would repurchase treasury stock for the first time in his life and buy it twice, indicating that he believed the NAV was undervalued.
In the 2013 annual report, he clearly stated that Berkshire's intrinsic value = NAV x 120%.
Cheap price is 20% lower than intrinsic value, cheap price = NAV.

3. 不過，實證結果...
2018/4 我買BRK.B時NAV 141美元
我的買價200元為NAV之141%，
4年抱下來共賺了71%，年複利15%，
顯見盈再表用淨利計算BRK預期報酬率方法比老巴的估算合理

3. Nevertheless, based on my personal experience, I bought BRK.B when its NAV was $141 in April 2018. My purchase price of $200 represented 141% of the NAV at that time. After holding the stock for 4 years, I have achieved a total return of 71%, which translates to a compound annual return of 15%. It is clear that BRK's expected return based on net profit is more reasonable than Mr. Buffett's estimate.

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#97

發表於 2018-1-1 20:21 資料主頁文集私人訊息

貴了要賣掉，績效才會最好，
否則只能得到中等績效。

If it is expensive, you should sell it to achieve optimal performance. Otherwise, you will only be able to achieve moderate performance.

2011年中碳股價173元，預期報酬率1% ，
接近貴了，我把它賣掉。
若貴了的中碳不賣續抱到2017年12月，
6年7個月過去了才回到當初我賣的價格，
白抱了6年7個月！

In 2011, I purchased China Steel Chemical stock at NT$173 with an expected return of 1%. As it seemed relatively expensive at the time, I made the decision to sell it. Looking back, had I held onto the stock until December 2017, it would have taken 6 years and 7 months for it to reach the original price at which I sold it. This means that I would have lost 6 years and 7 months for nothing!

價值投資是便宜買，貴了賣，
有2招，工夫別只學一半。
台灣人有句話「會賣股票的才是師父！」

Value investing means buying cheap and selling pricey. There are two skills to this strategy, so it's essential not to learn only one half. In Taiwan, people often say, "The true master is the one who knows how to sell stocks!"

貴了要賣掉，不然將白抱，
不是持股成本很低就可以不賣，
更非高配息要來當退休金用，坐享被動收入就可不賣，
這通通錯誤！

If a stock is expensive, it's crucial to sell it; otherwise, holding onto it will yield no benefits. On the other hand, just because a stock is cheap doesn't mean you shouldn't consider selling it. Also, high dividends should not be the sole reason for holding onto a stock as a retirement fund, as passive income can also be earned by selling the stock at an opportune time. These common misconceptions about stock investing are incorrect.

1998年可口可樂股價漲到最高89元，非常貴。
若不賣一路抱到2010年，
12年過去股價還原仍未回到89元，12年來白抱！
高ROE，高配息的公司，股價貴了不賣，仍然白抱。
有人說巴菲特不是沒賣嗎？
老巴不是沒賣，有賣！
1998年報上寫得很淸楚，
當年老巴的持股都紛紛變貴了，
不僅可口可樂貴了，連美國運通、吉列刮鬍刀，
甚至連波克夏也貴了。
巴菲特當然知道那麼多股票不可能在市場上抛售，
所以祂怎麼賣？
祂去換股合併，
祂拿貴了的波克夏股票去跟便宜的通用再保換股合併。
這樣不也等於在賣股票，
像我就是拿貴了的中碳去跟新台幣換股合併。

In 1998, Coca-Cola's stock price reached an all-time high of $89, which was considered very expensive. If you had held onto the stock until 2010, its price would not have returned to $89, even after 12 years. It's futile to hold onto expensive stocks, even if they have high ROE and dividend payouts. Some people believe that Mr. Buffett never sells stocks, but he actually does. If you look at the 1998 annual report, you will see that Buffett's holdings, including Coca-Cola, American Express (AXP), Gillette razors, and even Berkshire's own stock, had become expensive. He knew that selling the large amount of shares he held on the market would not be practical. Instead, he conducted a stock swap merger, which involved merging the expensive Berkshire stocks with cheaper general reinsurance swaps. This was essentially a way of selling stocks. Similarly, I exchanged my expensive China Steel Chemical stocks for New Taiwan dollars.

老巴心裡在想什麼看祂的動作便知，騙不了人的，
若祂拿股票去換股合併，表示祂認定祂的股票貴了。
用現金去收購則持股便宜。

Mr. Buffett's actions reveal his true thoughts, and he cannot deceive others. When he exchanges shares for shares in a merger, it indicates that he considers the Berkshire shares to be expensive. It's more cost-effective to purchase stocks with cash instead.

2016年報老巴公開澄清無所謂的永恆持股這回事，
之前寫巴菲特傳記的書都稱祂「Buy and Hold」。
老巴說掌控經營權事業(controlled business)不會賣，
因整個被祂買下來了，可能都下市了，無股價可言，
如那家鐵路股和潤滑油公司。
可是只持有部份股權的流通證券(marketable securities)
則會賣，因仍有股價，就有貴淑，
這種說法跟我的淑買貴賣就一致了。

In his 2016 annual report, Mr. Buffett explicitly stated that there are no permanent holdings. This is contrary to what some previous books on Buffett's biography suggest, which advocate for a "buy and hold" strategy. Buffett clarified that he would not sell controlled businesses because he has acquired the entire company, and some of these companies may not have a stock price or have already been delisted, such as railway and lubricant companies. However, he would sell securities that only hold a portion of the equity because there are still stock quotes and the prices may be either cheap or expensive. His statement aligns with my trading strategy of buying cheap and selling pricey.

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#98

發表於 2018-1-1 20:42 資料主頁文集私人訊息

億豐窗簾股價最高漲到408元，
盈再表算的貴價僅260元，
同學據此質疑盈再表不準？

Nien Made's share price increased to NT$408, but according to On's calculations, the fair price should be only NT$260. Based on this, a student questioned the accuracy of On's analysis.

盈再表算的貴淑價，並非在抓股價高低點，
貴價不是最高價，便宜價亦非最低價。
股價漲到接近貴、剛好貴、非常貴都有可能，
漲到非常貴不代表盈再表貴價就算錯。
所以到了貴淑價之後何時該賣或買？
不可知也無標準答案，
請自己決定，別再問了。

The pricey and cheap prices calculated by On's table are not meant to identify the high and low points of stock prices. A pricey price is not necessarily the highest, and a cheap price is not necessarily the lowest. The stock price may rise to a level that is close to pricey, just hitting the pricey mark, or even reaching an extremely expensive level. However, reaching an extremely expensive level does not mean that On's table's pricey price calculation is incorrect.

So, when should one decide to sell or buy after reaching the pricey or cheap price? It is unknowable, and there is no standard answer. Please make your own decision and refrain from asking further questions.

很多事件的發生並非絕對，而是機率高低，
像「人性本善」這句話對不對？
大家不會單純答：對或錯，
而是「7成對，3成不對」，
這才是答案。

The occurrence of many events is not absolute but rather a matter of probability. Is the statement "Human nature is inherently good" correct? People won't simply answer "yes" or "no," but rather "70% correct, 30% incorrect"—that's the answer.

70%股票在淑貴價之間波動，
5%股票貴了還會更貴，
請問如何操作最好？
A. 遵守淑買貴賣
B. 貴了也不賣

70% of stock fluctuations occur between cheap and pricey prices, and 5% of stocks that are already expensive can become even more expensive. What is the best approach?
A. Follow the strategy of buying cheap and selling pricey.
B. Do not sell even when the stocks are expensive.

答案是A
Bloomberg做過這項統計，由底下圖可知，
1954-2014美股報酬率落於0-15%之間，
可見盈再表訂的貴淑價相當合適，
便宜價預期報酬率15%，本益比12倍，
貴價預期報酬率0%，本益比30倍。

The answer is A.
Bloomberg has conducted this analysis, as shown in the figure below. The study of U.S. stock returns between 1954 and 2014 indicates that the "pricey" and "cheap" prices established by On's table are quite suitable. The expected return for "pricey" prices is 0%, with a PER of 30 times, while the expected return for "cheap" prices is 15%, with a PER of 12 times.

再看Bloomberg的圖，
買的本益比越低報酬率越高
反之買的本益比高則報酬率低，
故得證：淑買貴賣，績效會最好

Upon closer examination of Bloomberg's analysis, it is evident that the lower the PER, the higher the expected return. Conversely, a high PER corresponds to a low rate of return. This supports the idea that a "buy cheap and sell pricey" strategy is likely to yield the best results.

多看幾張股價圖可更明瞭：
台達電若買在貴價之上，後來股價腰斬。

Let's examine a few more stock charts to illustrate the point more clearly. For instance, imagine purchasing shares of Delta Electronics at a price higher than the "pricey" price, only to see the price drop by half shortly thereafter.

美利達也是，
有人不信邪，以為股價只要會漲就可以追，
硬是買在貴價之上，後來也腰斬。
美利達在貴價以上長達2年，股價的時間觀非常漫長。

Merida (9914.TW) is another example of this phenomenon. Some investors ignore established principles and believe that as long as the stock price rises, they can buy at any price. However, if the purchase price is higher than the "pricey" price, and the price subsequently drops by half, significant losses can occur. In the case of Merida, its stock price has recently surpassed its pricey price in two years, indicating stock price horizon is very long.

中碳在2009年之後才漲上來，2009年一直在便宜價以下，
同學一直在問中碳怎麼都不會變貴？
後來漲到200元同學又問怎麼都不便宜？

China Steel Chemical's stock price only began to rise after 2009, having remained below the "cheap" price prior to that point. Some students may wonder why the stock did not become "pricey" once its price exceeded the "cheap" threshold. However, the stock eventually rose to NT$200, prompting other students to question why it did not fall back into the "cheap" category.

建立一個穩定趨向15%年報酬率的投資組合是成為有錢人最重要步驟，
因為對這個投資組合有信心：
1. 才敢押身家，本金滾起來才會大，如我在美股已有3,000萬元台幣。
2. 才願意長期一直擺著，不跑來跑去，這樣就有複利效果。
本金大 x 複利長＝有錢人

Achieving a 15% annual return gives you the confidence to invest a significant portion of your wealth for the long term.
1. Be bold in investing the majority of your wealth to maximize your principal.
2. Emphasize generating compound interest by abstaining from speculative trading.
Large principal x long compound interest = billionaire
A large principal combined with sustained compound interest can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time.

善用盈再表績效頁XIRR記錄自己的績效，以確定穩定性
台股若找不到100檔以上可好很久的公司，請來投資全世界。

To assess the stability of your investment performance, it's important to utilize XIRR in your performance sheet. If you find that there are not more than 100 companies in Taiwan that can maintain their success over the long term, consider expanding your investments to the global market by investing in US stocks.

有人看到上表，總獲利897萬元，本金2,190萬元，
認為我的績效是年複利6%。
他的算法錯了，因為用期末本金來算績效。
我的本金是由700萬元，1,400萬元，逐年增加，
應該以投入年數來加權本金，即僅1,600萬元。
績效計算公式不是總獲利/期末本金，
而是用年數加權本金的XIRR。

Someone reviewed the table above and noted that the total profit was NT$8.97 million with a principal of NT$21.9 million. They argued that my annual performance was a compounded 6%. However, their method was incorrect, as they used the period-end principal to calculate performance. In reality, my principal increased from NT$7 million to NT$14 million over the years. Therefore, the principal should be weighted by the number of years invested, which amounts to only NT$16 million. The correct performance appraisal formula is not the total profit divided by the period-end principal. Instead, it is XIRR, which is calculated based on the weighted principal over the number of years invested.

XIRR是年化報酬率，
若持股不到1年用XIRR算出來的報酬率將超高，
如買了某股當天漲停板賺了10%，
XIRR高得嚇人(1+10%)^365-1
此時須加以調整如下：
未滿 1 年 (1+XIRR)^(天數/365)-1
總獲利無論正負均用上式計算。
本調整公式係本人獨創，經過驗算應該無誤

XIRR is a metric used to determine the annualized rate of return on an investment. If you hold shares for less than a year, the rate of return calculated with XIRR can be extremely high. For example, if you bought a stock and earned 10% on the daily limit, the XIRR would be calculated as (1+10%)^365-1, resulting in a terribly high rate of return. However, in such cases, it's important to make adjustments to the XIRR calculation. For investments held for less than a year, the adjustment formula should be (1+XIRR)^(number of days/365)-1. This formula should be used to calculate total profit, regardless of whether it's positive or negative. This adjustment formula was created by Michael On and has been verified as correct.

加錢提錢：本金增減，現金增減
買賣股：本金不變，現金減增，股票增減
配息：本金不變，現金增

Adding money and withdrawing money: Principal changes, cash changes.
Buying and selling stocks: Principal remains unchanged, cash decreases or increases, stocks increase or decrease.
Dividends: Principal remains unchanged, cash increases.

我的績效表記錄了10年，
XIRR為自第一筆到本筆之投入報酬率。
2023年12%表示自2013年至今
10年平均績效為12%

My performance record spans over 10 years, with XIRR representing the return on investment from the first entry to the current one. The 12% in 2023 indicates the return from 2013 to the present. The average performance over the past 10 years is 12%.

若想了解近5年來績效，
即第一年為2017年至今的績效
可直接將10年表截半
此時2017年本金應改為股票+現金之24,778,950
而非17,775,983

If you wish to know the performance for the last 5 years, which includes from 2017 to the present, you can simply take the last half of the 10-year record.In this case, the initial principal in 2017 should be adjusted to include stocks and cash, totaling $24,778,950 instead of $17,775,983.

ArthurWang 2023-7-17 21:14

Mike-san在高度分散持股的情況下仍能在五年翻倍，
且每年創造至少10%-20%的穩定報酬率，
即便2022年巿場反轉對比2021年仍有8.5%成長。
在2021年GDP高點時減碼(持股比例99%->85%)，
並在2022年GDP低點回補(85%->99%)。
的確完美的實踐Mike-san創造的GDP理論，
完美績效令人嚮往。

Even in a highly diversified stockholding situation, Mike-san managed to double his investments in five years, consistently achieving annual returns of at least 10%-20%. Despite the market reversal in 2022 compared to 2021, there was still an impressive 8.5% growth.
In 2021, when the GDP reached its peak, Mike-san reduced his holdings (from 99% to 85%), and in 2022, during the GDP's low point, he made a comeback (increasing from 85% to 99%).
This perfect execution of Mike-san's GDP theory resulted in a remarkable performance that is truly admirable.

大家應確實記錄自己的績效才能做出正確的重大決策：
1. 該全力投資或買房、債券、ETF...？
2. 自己夠不夠格成為無業投資人？

Everyone should keep track of their performance honestly to make informed major decisions, such as:
1. Whether to fully invest or buy a house, bonds, ETFs, etc.
2. Whether they are qualified to become an unemployed investor.

mikeon88 2023-7-4 18:29

我的績效10.2年平均12%，
債券殖利率3%，ETF 7%，房地產5%，
錢該擺哪裡很清楚了，
這是幼稚園入學考題

My performance averaged 12% over 10.2 years, with bond yields at 3%, ETFs at 7%, and real estate at 5%. It's quite clear where to allocate the money. This is a question from a kindergarten admission test.

我小時上幼稚園入學要考試，
老師拿兩塊積木一大一小，
問我哪一個比較重？
跟上述問題一模一樣。
我非常驚訝，絕大多數大人弄不清錢該擺哪裡

When I was a child, I had to take an entrance exam for kindergarten. The teacher showed me two building blocks, one large and one small, and asked which one was heavier. It's the exact same question as above. I was surprised because the vast majority of adults struggle to figure out where to put their money.

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#99

發表於 2018-1-1 20:44 資料主頁文集私人訊息

IRR是投資學必教的公式，
可是卻少有人真正拿它來做為買賣股票依據，
連投資學教授也一樣沒在用，
因為學校投資課中不曾探討過如何選定IRR參數，
而這才是IRR公式可不可行的關鍵。

The IRR formula is a fundamental concept taught in investment courses. However, in practice, few investors use it to buy and sell stocks. Even professors who teach investment courses rarely use the IRR formula because the course curriculum often neglects to cover how to choose parameters, which is the key to making the IRR formula feasible.

ROE超高時用IRR計算預期報酬率會高得離譜，
這不是公式錯誤，
而是在現實狀況下超高ROE不可能持續多年。

In situations where ROE is extremely high, the expected return calculated by the IRR formula will be unreasonably high. However, this is not a formula error. In reality, it is unlikely for an ultra-high ROE to persist over many years.

當預期配息率太高，IRR預期報酬率又偏低，
如UL的PER才23倍，IRR卻已是 -11%，這明顯不合理

If the expected dividend payout ratio is too high, the expected return calculated by the IRR formula may be unreasonably low. For instance, the PER for UL is only 23 times, yet the IRR's expected return is -11%, which is clearly an unreasonable figure.

上述問題有人用二分法來處理，成長到一半時轉為低成長。
這個方法流於主觀，
中期之後成長率調低多少無客觀標準，事實上也不可知。

Some professors use dichotomy to address the aforementioned problems by opting for low-growth strategies after a certain period of growth. However, this method is subjective and lacks an objective standard for determining how much the growth rate should be reduced after the mid-term. In fact, it is impossible to know for certain.

當IRR算法不合理時，我提出改用PER法來除去人為主觀調整的缺點，
既標準明確，且一體適用。

If the IRR formula yields unreasonable results, I suggest using the PER method instead to eliminate the drawbacks of subjective adjustments. The standards for using the PER method are clear and can be easily applied.

PER法：
我規定貴價本益比30倍，預期報酬率為0；
淑價預期報酬率15%
PER4倍漲到30倍，預期報酬率為(30/4)^(1/8)-1=28.6%
淑價x(1+15%)^8=預期EPSx30
貴價x(1+0%)^8=預期EPSx30

PER method:
I stipulate that for pricey price the PER is 30 times and expected return is 0;
for cheap price expected return 15%
PER increases from 4 times to 30 times, expected return is (30/4)^(1/8)-1=28.6%
cheap price x(1+15%)^8=expected EPSx30
pricey price x(1+0%)^8=expected EPSx30

換軌點：由IRR換成PER法
參考陳坤良同學建議，在預期報酬率的計算上
當淑價和貴價之平均，IRR法比PER法小20%或大20%
則由IRR法改為PER法

Change point: from IRR to PER method
As per Curry's recommendation, we will switch from using the IRR method to the PER method for calculating expected returns when the average of the cheap and pricey prices obtained by the IRR method deviates more than 20% from that obtained by the PER method.

全台灣只有巴菲特班確實按照IRR公式來買賣股票。
盈再表上的指標，還原股價、ROE、常利、盈再率、配息率、IRR、PER法、換軌點
看似尋常，其實都有本人獨門密訣。
如何設定完全公開在盈再表上，
可是我相信大部份人看不懂，因頗為複雜。

In Taiwan, only the Buffett Class invests in stocks based on the IRR formula. On's table includes several indicators such as adjusted stock price, ROE, recurring profit, PR%, dividend payout ratio, IRR, PER method, and change point. While these indicators may appear ordinary, each has its own secrets. On's table fully discloses how to set up these indicators, but they may be difficult for most people to comprehend due to their complexity.

最後，在盈再表績效頁上本人提出比較績效的辦法，
以巴爺爺50年平均20%為基準，
巴菲特 50 年平均 20% = 1.2^50 = 9,100
您 9.6 年平均 11% 與巴菲特距離 93 (越小越好)，成績優秀
9.6 年的差距A = 1.2^(50-9.6)，A^0.5 = 40
11% 的差距B (1+11%)^B = 9,100，B = 87年
與巴菲特距離 93 = 100x(A^0.5xB)/3,701
其中 3,701 = (1.2^(50-8))^0.5xlog(9100,1+12%)，8年平均12%
謝謝江文宏桑指導B
開根號為防數字變大

Lastly, I propose a method for comparing performance on On's table's performance sheet. This method involves comparing the performance to the 50-year average return of 20% achieved by the Buffett Class.
Mr. Buffett's 50-year average of 20% = 1.2^50 = 9,100
Your 9.6-year average of 11% distance from Buffett 93 (The smaller the better), Excellent !
9.6 years gap A = 1.2^(50-9.6)，A^0.5 = 40
11% gap B (1+11%)^B = 9,100，B = 87 yr
Distance from Buffett 93 = 100x(A^0.5xB)/3,701
where 3,701 = (1.2^(50-8)^0.5)xlog(9100,1+12%), 8-year average of 12
Thanks to Wenhong Jiang for his guidance in B.
The square root is used to prevent the number from becoming too large.

跟巴菲特比績效指標解決了一個千古難題，
5年平均賺12%跟8年平均賺10%可以相互比較誰好了。

Comparing performance with the Buffett indicator resolves a longstanding issue where an average of 12% over 5 years can be compared to an average of 10% over 8 years.

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#100

發表於 2018-1-1 21:10 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 14/21：現金殖利率的毒害
Lecture 14/21 The poison of cash yield

IRR 股息折現公式是計算投資報酬率唯一正確的公式，
因它完整的把未來的股息和賣出價考慮進來，
其它算報酬率的方法都是錯的。
這幾年流行的現金殖利率是錯的報酬率算法，
因只算到第一年的股息。
中碳2003年殖利率7%，
我8年抱下來賺6倍，IRR為 31%(註)，
現金殖利率7%離實際報酬率很遠。

The IRR formula is the correct method for calculating return on investment as it considers both future dividends and selling prices. Other methods are incorrect. The popular cash yield method used in recent years is flawed as it only accounts for the dividend in the first year. For example, China Steel Chemical had a yield of 7% in 2003, but this is far from the actual rate of return as I earned six times my initial investment over eight years, resulting in an IRR of 31%.(Note)

註：投資一檔股票不是純粹的單利或複利，而是單複利綜合，
股息是單利，未配出來的為複利，
IRR包含單利和複利才是報酬率正確算法。

Note: Investing in a stock involves a combination of simple and compound interest, rather than just one or the other. Dividends represent simple interest, while unallocated dividends represent compound interest. Therefore, the correct method for calculating the rate of return is to use IRR, which accounts for both simple and compound interest.

底下2家公司中國移動和中華電，誰比較便宜？
(摘自陳宥聰桑的研究)
不管用IRR或本益比去算，中移動明顯比中華電便宜，
可是算現金殖利率中移動僅4%，中華電5.8%反而較高，
中華電賺得少但配得多，反而被誤以為便宜。
現金殖利率會受到配息率高低和買回庫藏股而扭曲，
無法正確評估貴淑。

According to Joe's research, China Mobile is cheaper than Chunghwa Telecom, whether calculated using IRR or PER. However, it's worth noting that China Mobile's cash yield is only 4%, whereas Chunghwa Telecom's is higher at 5.8%. Despite earning less, Chunghwa Telecom pays out more in dividends and is mistakenly perceived as being cheaper. It's important to note that cash yield can be distorted by factors such as dividend payout ratio and shares buyback, making it difficult to evaluate a stock's true value accurately.

股價到底是反映IRR還是現金殖利率？
這2個例子可以證明：
中華電現金殖利率4.4％，還算便宜，
可是IRR -2%，貴了，
到底是貴或便宜？
請看股價表現，這幾年歷史高價在110元上下，
較接近IRR的貴價108.9元，
得證股價反映IRR，而非現金殖利率。
中華電是這幾年存股族首選標的，
存了幾年下來績效並不顯著，因為貴了。

When considering whether a stock is expensive or cheap, it's important to evaluate both IRR and cash yield. For example, Chunghwa Telecom has a cash yield of 4.4%, which may seem cheap, but its IRR is -2%, indicating that it's actually expensive. By looking at the historical high price of around NT$110 and the current price of NT$108.9, it's clear that the stock price reflects IRR rather than cash yield. Despite being a popular choice for depositors in recent years, holding Chunghwa Telecom for a few years may not result in significant investment returns due to its high cost.

港股匯豐銀行現金殖利率5.9%，以為便宜，
可是IRR 5% 接近貴，
到底是貴或便宜？看股價表現，
這幾年歷史高價85元上下，
較接近IRR算的貴價94.8元，
再次證明股價反映IRR，而非現金殖利率。

Hong Kong HSBC has a cash yield of 5.9%, which may seem cheap, but its IRR of 5% is actually closer to expensive. To determine whether the stock is expensive or cheap, it's important to evaluate its stock price performance. Over the past few years, the historical high price of Hong Kong HSBC has been around HK$85, which is closer to the pricey price of HK$94.8 calculated by IRR. This once again proves that stock prices reflect IRR rather than cash yield when determining whether a stock is expensive or cheap.

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#101

發表於 2018-1-1 21:22 資料主頁文集私人訊息

前一陣子老是有人來問「便宜價是否看現金殖利率6%？」
不是！因為股票不只賺股息，主要在賺價差。
一般人以為跑短線在賺價差，長期投資則收股息，
錯！無論短線和長期投資最主要都在賺價差，
我買中碳賺了6倍，股息僅 1 倍，其它5倍都是價差賺來的。
現金殖利率未算及最主要的價差怎麼會對呢？

Lately, many individuals have been asking whether a stock with a 6% cash dividend yield should be deemed cheap. The answer is no. Stocks generate returns not only from dividends but primarily from capital gains. It is commonly believed that short-term trading is geared towards realizing capital gains, while long-term investments are intended to produce dividends. However, this is incorrect. Both short-term and long-term investments are primarily focused on generating capital gains. To illustrate, I made a profit of six times my investment with China Steel, of which only one time was from dividends, and the remaining five times were from capital gains. Therefore, relying solely on cash dividend yield cannot be considered as the primary indicator of investment returns since it does not account for the most critical component, capital gains.

有位同學電話上跟我盧了10分鐘，
問他「有沒有聽過賺了股息，賠了價差？」
他答「聽過！」卻轉過頭說「就是要現金殖利率啊！」
我頓覺疲憊「怎麼同一個觀念換另外一句話講就不懂了？」
同學還跟我嗆聲他是第一志願的學生，
讓我發現：人碰到投資就變笨。
他說他是長期投資者「只在意股息，不管價差。」
「是嗎？」我回「那請把股票給我，我每年把股息匯給你。」
這時他才悻悻然掛上電話。

A student spoke to me on the phone for ten minutes. I asked him, "Have you ever heard of earning dividends but incurring capital losses?" He replied, "Yes, I have!" However, he immediately contradicted himself by saying, "It's all about cash dividend yield!" I felt frustrated that he couldn't grasp the same concept presented in a different way. The student even boasted that he was a top-ranking student, but I realized that people tend to become foolish when it comes to investments. He claimed to be a long-term investor who "only cares about dividends, not capital gains." "Is that so?" I replied, "Then, would you mind giving me your stocks? I'll send you the dividends every year." He hung up the phone in a sullen manner.

很多人大概不曉得配股配息的道理，
講稿5/21提到「除權除息前後股東財富不變」
配息其實是割股東的肉配給股東，
分到股息不算賺到，因為股價被除下來，
須填息了才是賺了，
股價漲才是重點，怎麼會說只管股息，不在意價差?!。

Many people may not understand the concept of ex-rights and ex-dividends. As previously discussed in the 5/21 lecture, "shareholder wealth remains the same before and after ex-rights and ex-dividends." Dividends are like taking a portion of shareholders' meat and distributing it among them. Dividends are not earned upon distribution as they are deducted from the stock price. To truly earn from dividends, the stock price must rise to pre-ex-dividend levels.The crucial point lies in the rise of stock prices. How could one claim to only care about dividends and disregard capital gains?

有人勸我放寬心「兒孫自有兒孫福」，
「不，這可是大是大非的事！
現金殖利率的毒害不解在投資上將到處碰壁。」，
我在狂風中嘶吼著。
像200元的中碳貴嗎？
按盈再表清楚顯示貴了，
可是現金殖利率還有 4%(=8.3息/200)，還會以為便宜。

Someone suggested I should relax and said, "Children have their own luck."
"No, this is a serious matter! The trap of chasing high cash yields will lead investors to trouble everywhere," I shouted into the wind.
Is the price of NT$200 per share of China Steel Chemical expensive?
On's table clearly shows that it is expensive, but some still consider it cheap because of the 4% cash yield (= 8.3 dividend / 200).

2011年中碳173元接近貴了賣掉之後我在討論區公告週知，
在其它社群上看到居然還有網友在感謝我
「感謝洪老前輩把中碳賣出來才能讓他買在180元」，
這位網友為何180元還會去買中碳，
正是誤信現金殖利率的結果。

In 2011, I sold China Steel Chemical at the expensive price of NT$173 and announced it on a discussion forum. I noticed that netizens in other investment clubs thanked me, saying "Thank you, Uncle On, for selling China Steel Chemical so that we can buy it for NT$180." However, this netizen's purchase of China Steel Chemical for NT$180 was the result of a misunderstanding of cash yield.

中碳是本人的成名代表作之一，
2003年最早發掘，在「選股魔法書」介紹，
上課時三不五時提一下，巴班同學都賺飽飽。

One of my famous success stories is China Steel Chemical. I discovered it in early 2003 and included it in my "Magic Book". I also mentioned it in my class on numerous occasions, and all my students who invested in it made a fortune.

2015年漲到 1 萬點，台股開始流行存股，
說只要高配息都不用賣，不管多貴都可以買，
是嗎？
中碳若買在200元，後來跌到100元，
配息4元，要配25年息才解套！
一個人大概只有3個25年，
第一個25年在唸書，唸一些沒用的書，
第二個25年在工作，大部分人工作附加價值都不高。
時間過得很快，我僅剩最後一個25年，
若仍在這裡跟大家「高ROE，低盈再率」就悲哀了，
驚覺不對，應該要去做一些更有意義的事，
所以就宣布不教了。
中碳買在200元的人25年則在等解套，豈不更可悲？ !

In 2015, when the index rose to 10,000 points, stock deposits became popular in the Taiwan market. They claimed that as long as the dividend yield was high, there was no need to sell, and no matter how expensive the stock was, it was still worth buying. But is that true? For instance, if one bought China Steel Chemical at NT$200, and the price subsequently dropped to NT$100, with a dividend yield of NT$4, it would take 25 years to break even! A person probably only has three sets of 25 years. During the first 25 years, one learns from books that are often of little use. During the next 25 years, most people work in jobs with low added value. Time flies by quickly, and I only have my last 25 years left. It would be miserable if I were still here teaching everyone about "high ROE, low P/E ratios". Realizing this, I decided to do something more meaningful and announced that I would no longer teach. How sad it is for those who bought China Steel Chemical at NT$200 and have been waiting for 25 years to break even!

1 萬點時還出現一個怪論「存股要把本金押滿，
本金1,000萬元的話押滿，現金殖利率4%，
一年能領到40萬元股息，就財富自由了！」
聽了這種論調直讓我全身起雞皮疙瘩，
漲到 1 萬點叫人押滿，實在無知！
這其實不是新鮮事，每隔幾年就會出現：
1萬點買滿，4,000點則唉叫現金是王。

When the market index reached 10,000 points, a strange argument arose: "You must fully invest when you deposit stocks. If your principal is $10 million and the cash yield rate is 4%, you can earn a $400,000 dividend within a year, giving you financial freedom!" Hearing this gave me goosebumps. However, it is unwise to invest fully when the market is at its peak. This is not a new phenomenon; it occurs every few years. Everyone all bets when the market is at 10,000 points, but when it drops to 4,000 points, cash becomes king.

坊間一堆不良理財達人和雜誌都這樣誤導大家，
說存殖利率5%，每年股息收100-200萬元以上，這樣就財富自由了。
有人真的拿房子抵押，對外張揚他財富自由了，
最後卻是碰到還款到期，而持股套牢賠錢…
提醒大家，要財富自由不是靠殖利率5%，
而是年績效長期15%以上

Some unethical experts and publications have misled the public by promoting the idea that investing in stocks with a 5% cash yield can generate dividends exceeding NT$1-2 million annually and bring financial freedom. However, some individuals pledge their homes as collateral to invest, claiming financial independence, only to suffer losses when the repayment date arrives. It's important to remember that financial freedom isn't attainable through a 5% yield but rather through a long-term annual performance of more than 15%.

2015年理專猛推南非幣，說利率高。
結果呢？賠了匯差。

In 2015, financial advisers strongly recommended investing in the South African currency, Rand, due to its high interest rates. The outcome? Investors suffered significant exchange losses.

買房的人都在算租金報酬率，說3%很不錯。
卻忘了房價會跌。
2013年跟大家警告房價會跌，沒人相信，
都以為房價是無敵的，不可能跌。
這世界哪有只漲不跌的商品，
若有的話世上就不會有窮人了，
我們祖先在漢朝買一幢房子到現在大家不都發了嗎？

Housing investors are calculating rental returns and considering 3% to be a good rate. However, they seem to overlook the possibility of house prices falling. In 2013, I warned others that house prices were likely to decline, but nobody believed me. They all thought that house prices were invulnerable and would never decrease. However, if such a commodity existed, nobody would be poor in the world. Our ancestors purchased houses during the Han Dynasty and passed them down to the next generation. Does that mean everyone is wealthy now?

即便房價不跌每年也會折舊，
新成屋和老房子價差是很大的，
一樣是賺了股息賠了價差。

Even if house prices do not drop, they will still depreciate every year. The price difference between a new and an old house can be significant. The same applies to capital losses incurred to collect dividends.

最近又聽到怪論，理專慫恿客戶把房子拿去貸款，
說利率不到3%，拿來買高收益債的利率6%可以套利？
可以套利嗎？
用3%去套利6%的前提是6%的債券價格不跌才有，
可是高收債跟股市的漲跌同方向且同樣劇烈，
怎麼套利？

I recently came across a strange argument that bank advisors are encouraging customers to take out a mortgage on their homes at a 3% interest rate and invest in 6% high-yield bonds, claiming it as an arbitrage opportunity. But is it really an arbitrage opportunity? The premise of this strategy is based on the assumption that the price of 6% bonds will not decline, but high-yield bonds are known to fluctuate with the stock market and can be quite volatile. So, how can one actually arbitrage in this scenario?

以上種種問題俱是現金殖利率的毒害！
賺股息，賠了價差。

All of these issues can be a trap for cash yield. While you may collect dividends, you could also suffer from capital loss.

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#102

發表於 2018-1-1 21:25 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿15/21：GDP理論
Lecture 15/21 GDP Theorem

便宜價僅表示股價便宜，
可是當大盤不好時，便宜還會更便宜。
2008年金融風暴許多股票跌到便宜價以下又再跌40%。
別以為選高ROE、高配息的股票，等到便宜才買，
就不會被斷頭，照樣會！

Cheap price only means that stock price is cheap, but during a market downturn, the prices can plummet even further. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, many stocks that were previously deemed cheap fell by an additional 40%. Relying solely on selecting stocks with high ROE and dividends and waiting for them to become cheap is not sufficient. It is still possible to experience a margin call with this approach.

我們還是希望能儘量買在最低價，
必須知道大盤位置在什麼地方？
判斷大盤位置的方法有2招：
一是GDP理論，
二是按盈再表看現在是普遍貴或淑。

To purchase stocks at the lowest possible price, it is essential to know the current market position. Two methods can be employed to evaluate the market's position:
The first method is the GDP Theorem.
The second method is to use On's table to assess whether most stocks are cheap or expensive.

從過去記錄發現GDP年增率跟大盤指數高度相關，
底下這張圖從1990年以來到現在，是相當完整的一張圖。
若這個現象過去都成立就別懷疑這次會不準，
每逢大盤高點老是有同學質疑GDP理論不準。

Based on historical data, I have observed a strong correlation between the annual GDP growth rate and the market index. The chart below provides a comprehensive picture of this trend from 1990 to the present day. Given that this phenomenon has been consistent in the past, there is no reason to doubt its accuracy this time around. Despite this, some individuals tend to question the accuracy of the GDP Theorem whenever the market has risen high.

GDP年增率和大盤指數在最低、最高點會同時出現，
我名之為GDP理論。
1991年5月指數來到最高6,365，
GDP年增率最高是第三季8.5%，
怎麼沒同季出現？
GDP是季資料，本表的指數為月資料，
兩組資料單位大小不一併排比較必然出現
提前一季或落後一季的誤差。

The GDP Theorem states that the annual GDP growth rate and the market index tend to reach their lowest and highest points at the same time. In May 1991, the market index peaked at 6,365, while the annual GDP growth rate was at its highest in the third quarter at 8.5%. One might question why these two factors did not coincide during the same quarter. This discrepancy can be explained by the fact that GDP is measured on a quarterly basis, whereas the indexes in the provided table are measured on a monthly basis. As a result, there is a one-quarter lag or lead between the two sets of data, resulting in the observed error.

接下來指數跌到1993年1月3,098，
GDP最低6.7%也一樣落在第一季。

The market index fell to 3,098 in January 1993. During this time, the GDP in the first quarter was at its lowest, reaching 6.7%.

指數又漲至1994年10月7,228，
GDP最高7.9%在第四季又同步了。

The market index rose to 7,228 in October 1994, while the GDP in the fourth quarter reached its highest point at 7.9%.

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#103

發表於 2018-1-1 21:28 資料主頁文集私人訊息

有人說GDP是落後指標？
不然，從上圖便知GDP和指數同步，從未落後，
GDP只是較晚公佈，
較晚公佈如何事先預知GDP？
YoY！用基期比較就可預先研判GDP。

Some people say that GDP is a lagging indicator. However, as can be seen from the above chart, GDP and the market index move in sync and have never lagged behind. The only delay is in the timing of the GDP announcement. How can we predict GDP in advance when it is announced later? YoY! By comparing with the base period, we can predict GDP trends in advance.

SARS在2003年第二季，當時就知那是最低點，
我還預言在SARS之後股市將上漲到隔年第二季，
為何敢如此斷言？
不是預估GDP，純粹只是YoY做基期比較而已。
SARS是2003年第二季GDP最低，
接下來景氣好轉GDP年增率將在哪一季達到最高？
當然是隔年第二季最高，
因為年增率是跟去年同期比較，
去年基期低，今年就會高。
指數則在2004年3月7,135達到最高，
跟第二季只差 1 個月，預估相當準確！

不必預估GDP，只要用YoY做基期比較即可。

In the second quarter of 2003, SARS outbreak occurred, and I predicted that it was the market's lowest point. I confidently asserted that the stock market would rise to its peak in the second quarter of the following year after SARS. How could I make such an accurate prediction? It was not a forecast of GDP, but merely a comparison of YoY's base period. When SARS hit, the GDP dropped to its lowest point in the second quarter of 2003. As the economy improved, the annual GDP growth rate would reach its highest point in the second quarter of the following year because the annual growth rate is compared to the same period last year. The base period was low last year, so it would be high this year. The market index reached its peak at 7,135 in March 2004, which was only one month away from the second quarter, making the prediction quite accurate!

There is no need to forecast GDP; using YoY for base period comparison is sufficient.

GDP理論過去有3次出入較大，
其中2次是2003年和2005年。這2次出現W底，
不過只要堅持買在GDP低點，
即便不是買在最低點，離底部也不會太遠。
2003年買在4,044離底部3,845不遠，
2005年買在5,565距低點5,255很近。

In the past, there were three significant deviations from the GDP Theorem, with two occurring in 2003 and 2005 where double W-bottoms were observed. However, if one remains committed to buying at a low GDP, even if it is not at the exact lowest point, it would not be too far from the bottom. For instance, the purchase made at 4,044 in 2003 was not far from the bottom of 3,845, while buying at 5,565 in 2005 was very close to the low of 5,255.

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#104

發表於 2018-1-1 21:34 資料主頁文集私人訊息

GDP理論同學質疑聲最大的是2010年這一次，
2010年第一季GDP年增率最高13.6%，
之後一路往下到2012年第二季才落底，走了2年半。
指數在2010年1月出現第一個頭部8,395，
之後跌到7,049，被QE2拉上來到9,221成第二個頭，
這是一個M頭。
這次就有人質疑GD理論不準了。

The most questioned instance of GDP Theorem by students occurred in 2010. The annual GDP growth rate was at its highest in the first quarter, reaching 13.6%. Subsequently, it continued to decline for two and a half years until the second quarter of 2012. In January 2010, the market index reached its first peak at 8,395, then dropped to 7,049 before being boosted by Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) to 9,221, forming a second peak in the shape of an "M". Despite this pattern, some individuals still raised doubts regarding the accuracy of the GDP Theorem.

準不準不要單看指數，而是要看類股表現才知。
這次是分2批跌，電子、金融、散裝輪從8,395起跌，
另一半石油和高ROE股則被QE2拉上去到9,221才跌。
電子股若撐到9,221才賣已經來不及了，跌了3成。
細看類股表現仍然符合GDP理論。

It is important not to rely solely on the index, but to also examine the performance of different sectors. In the case of the market downturn, it occurred in two stages, with electronics, finance, and bulk shipping experiencing a decline from the peak of 8,395. On the other hand, oil and high ROE stocks were lifted by QE2 to 9,221 before eventually dropping. Holding onto electronics stocks until 9,221 proved to be too late, resulting in a 30% decline. Nevertheless, a careful analysis of sector performance still aligns with the principles of GDP Theorem.

這次景氣高點到低點，2010年初到2012年第二季，
走了2年半才落底。
因為我們習慣用YoY判斷，若去年基期高就認為今年就落底了，
同學問這樣會不會在山腰時誤判落底而提早買進？
這當然有可能，
主計處給的第一版預估也是估景氣在2011年第一季落底。
可是判斷大盤高低點的方法有2招，除了GDP之外，
另一招是按盈再表看股票是否普遍貴了。
2011年第一季指數9,200股價普遍貴，
當時提醒同學小心，卻無人鳥我，
只好把心愛的中碳拿出來賣給大家看，賣在173元的高價。

This business cycle went from a high point to a low point, spanning from the beginning of 2010 to the second quarter of 2012, which took about two and a half years to reach the bottom. As we tend to make judgments on an annual basis, if last year's base period was high, we might mistakenly assume that it has fallen this year. A student once asked if we could misjudge the bottom of the index and buy stocks early on the halfway. Indeed, it is possible. Besides using GDP to determine highs and lows of the market, we can also refer to On's table to check if most stocks are expensive. In the first quarter of 2011, the index's highest share price reached 9,200, which was very expensive. I warned my students to be cautious at the time, but nobody listened to me. Therefore, I sold my beloved China Steel Chemical at a high price of NT$173 to show them the consequences.

這個狀況其實就是科斯托蘭尼所講的比喻，
經濟跟股市的關係等於主人在遛狗，
狗會跑來跑去即股價超漲超跌。
景氣在往下走，股價被QE2拉上去，結果呢？
總有一天會回來。
我們聽老科講這個比喻時都覺得津津有味，
可是身處在當時卻從不認為狗跑遠，
而是主人跑遠，回過頭來去追那隻狗。

This situation is a metaphor for Kostolany's philosophy on the relationship between the economy and the stock market, which he likens to an owner and his dog. Just as dogs run around, stock prices will go up and down. While the economy was declining, QE2 pushed up stock prices, but we knew that the dogs would come back eventually. When Kostolany talked about this metaphor, we were all captivated. However, in the market, we often forget that the dog can run too far, and instead of chasing the dog, we end up chasing after the owner who has already run away.

mikeon88

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#105

發表於 2018-1-1 21:37 資料主頁文集私人訊息

為何我們對GDP理論這麼重視，從過去的經驗來的，
2008年百年難得一見的金融風暴，
我們不是在2008年初才叫大家賣股票，而是2007年10月。
2007年指數漲到8,500即有同學反映找不到便宜的股票買，
我即提醒「那就少買一點。」
指數漲到最高點9,859之後的第三天我跳出來喊「高點到了」，
理由即依照主計處的預估GDP年增率高點在第三季，
所以遵守GDP理論的人賣在9,800，
在賣股時根本不知隔年會發生什麼事！

Why do I attach so much importance to GDP Theorem? It's because of my past experience. The financial crisis of 2008 was a rare occurrence in a century. In October 2007, we recommended that everyone sell their shares instead of waiting until early 2008. When the index rose to 8,500 in 2007, some students reported that they could not find cheap stocks to buy. I reminded them to "buy less." On the third day after the index rose to its highest point of 9,859, I jumped out and shouted "the high point is here" based on the estimated annual GDP growth rate of the DGBAS in the third quarter. People who followed the GDP Theorem sold at 9,800. When selling stocks, I don't know what will happen next year!

主計處在每年2月、5月、8月、11月的25日公布上一季GDP，
並提出未來一年4季預測。
2007年11月25日主計處預估2008年第三季GDP年增率將最低，
這個預估我們認同，因2007年第三季GDP最高，
隔年2008第三季應當最低。
當時有位同學說他股票賣完了想去休年假，
我鼓勵他「去休假吧，等中秋節再回來」。

On the 25th of February, May, August, and November each year, the DGBAS announces the GDP of the previous quarter and provides a forecast for the next year's four quarters. On November 25, 2007, the DGBAS estimated that the annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2008 would be the lowest. I agreed with this estimate because the GDP in the third quarter of 2007 was the highest, so the third quarter of 2008 should be the lowest in the following year. At that time, a student said that he wanted to take annual leave after his stocks were sold out. I encouraged him to "go on vacation and come back after the Mid-Autumn Festival."

這次GDP低點於2009年第一季才落底，因次貸風暴比預期嚴重。
指數3,955則在2008年11月觸底，
而我們在第三季6,000點時進場。
買股票是漸進的過程，
6,000點買了一些股票被套牢了，會害怕，
等到不跌了再買一些，又被套更怕，
被套牢會怕是天經地義，誰無父母，誰不會怕？
就這樣買買停停，買到2009年1月買到手軟腳軟，
才發現居然一路上去了。

The GDP hit a low point in the first quarter of 2009 due to the subprime mortgage crisis being worse than expected. The index hit its bottom at 3,955 in November 2008. We began buying stocks in the third quarter at 6,000 points. Buying stocks is a gradual process, and I initially bought some stocks at 6,000 points but got stuck and became afraid. I waited to buy more until the price stabilized, and I became even more afraid. It's natural to be afraid of getting stuck, and who doesn't have parents that worry about this? Despite these fears, I continued to buy, pause, and buy again until January 2009, and I found that the stock prices had risen continuously.

抱到2009年6月6,000點時有同學說，他想先賣一趟，
因為4,000抱到6,000賺够了，
我跳出來阻止「續抱，GDP顯示年底才是高點。」
就這樣一路抱到2010年1月8,300賣掉一半。
我賣的那一半都跌，鴻海賣在150元，國泰金59元，中鋼30幾元。
高ROE股仍留著，
到2011年9,000點再把中碳拿出來賣掉，
這就是2008年整個過程。

When the index hit a low of 3,955 in November 2008, we began gradually buying stocks, entering at 6,000 points in the third quarter. However, I got stuck after buying some stocks at 6,000 points, and waited to buy more until the market stabilized. Despite the fear of getting stuck, we continued to buy until January 2009, when we realized that stocks had risen significantly. When we held the stocks at 6,000 points in June 2009, a student expressed interest in selling and taking a profit of 4,000 to 6,000. However, I advised holding on because GDP indicated that the end of the year would bring a high. As a result, we sold half of our shares at 8,300 in January 2010, just before prices for stocks such as Hon Hai (2317.TW), Cathay Financial Holdings (2882.TW), and China Steel (2002.TW) dropped significantly. High ROE stocks remained unchanged. Finally, in 2011, we sold China Steel Chemical at an index of 9,000 points. This was the entire process in 2008.

歷經本次金融風暴給我們一個啟示：
只要在GDP高點減碼下來，管它什麼股災都跟我無關！
做投資最怕遇到股災，如何避掉？
很簡單，遵守GDP理論！

After the financial turmoil, we were inspired: If we cut positions at the highest point of GDP, it doesn't matter what market crashes occur.
Investors are most afraid of market crashes, but how can they be avoided? It's very simple, just follow the GDP Theorem!

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