講稿與盈再表免費下載

巴菲特班洪瑞泰 (Michael On) » 討論區1 » 講稿與盈再表免費下載

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發表於 2017-10-30 10:00 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿與盈再表免費下載

巴菲特班講稿：洪瑞泰(Michael On)主講 (本頁下拉↓)

最新盈再表下載 (點我)
網頁版盈再表：stocks.ddns.net (點我)
網頁版盈再表數據不同時，請以Excel版為準。

選股步驟：
從AlexWu桑網頁版盈再表台股、美股、亞股
預期報酬率大於12%中挑選符合巴班原則個股，
再經由Excel版確認。

注意：
1. 預期報酬率非越高越好，而是挑有把握的。
報酬率超高35%以上個股可能是基本面出了問題，財報來不及反映
2. 7成股票在GDP年增率低點才會落底

執行出現問題請依盈再表底下「安裝頁」指示檢查

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發表於 2017-12-31 19:55 資料主頁文集私人訊息

*** 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽 ***

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發表於 2017-12-31 20:01 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 1/21：歡迎
Lecture 1/21 Welcome

歡迎來上巴菲特班，本班創立於2003年，
為台灣歷史最悠久，學生人數最多的投資課。

Welcome to the Buffett Lecture Series! Founded by Michael On in 2003, it is the premier and highly acclaimed investment course in Taiwan, with a long-standing reputation.

2003年開班在想該取什麼名字才會吸引人來上課？
當時剛好看到eBay在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
拍得25萬美金，折合台幣800多萬，
我就把這堂課取名叫「一堂價值800萬元的投資課」，
以為是響叮噹的名字，不料效果不彰。

In 2003, while starting the Buffett Lecture Series, I was looking for a name that would appeal to the audience. I stumbled upon an eBay auction for a lunch with Warren Buffett that sold for $250,000, equivalent to over NT$8 million. This inspired me to name the series "An Investment Course Worth NT$8 Million." Although I believed the name was striking, its effectiveness was still to be seen.

eBay每年都在拍賣跟巴菲特吃午餐的權利金，
2012年跟2016年同樣創了新高，
金額都是3,456,789美金，折合台幣約1億多元，
所以現在是一堂價值 1 億多元的投資課，現在來上課賺更多！

Every year, eBay holds an auction for a "Lunch with Warren Buffett," which set new records in 2012 and 2016 with winning bids of $3,456,789, equivalent to roughly NT$100 million.
This has elevated the perceived value of the course to over NT$100 million, making it an opportune time to enroll and receive even greater returns on your investment.

令人遺憾的是本班的學費在2003年是5,000元，
好不容易2008年因為石油上漲跟著起鬨漲到6,000元，
本以為學費應該跟老巴的權利金一起上漲，卻是很困難。

Since its inception in 2003, the tuition for this course was established at NT$5,000. In 2008, the tuition was increased to NT$6,000 due to the rise in oil prices.
I had aspired for the course tuition to grow in line with the winning bid amount of the annual "Lunch with Warren Buffett" auction, but increasing the fee proved to be a difficult task.

上完課之後同學才跟我反映，本班的學費其實最便宜，
上別人的課動輒都是上萬元以上，甚至有一堂24萬元課。
我以為本班學費只是個合理價，中間的價格，
說便宜也沒便宜到哪裡去，因為投資是很簡單的一門課，
若動輒都要上萬塊以上的話，
那以前在學校所學更難的課物理化學或微積分不就要上百萬元嗎？
如果上過比我更貴的課，表示被敲了竹槓！

After the classes, students would approach me and tell me that my class fees were actually the cheapest among all the other investment courses. Other courses often cost more than ten thousand dollars, with some even costing twenty-four thousand dollars per class. I thought the fees for my class were just a reasonable price, in the middle range. When people say "cheap," it's not really that cheap. Because investment is a simple subject, if people have to pay more than ten thousand dollars, then wouldn't subjects like physics, chemistry, or calculus, which are more difficult, cost millions of dollars? If someone has taken a course that's more expensive than mine, they were ripped off!

同學問為何還要來上這堂課？
上課之前有人已先看過我的書，為何還要來上這堂課？
因為書上有些東西可能看得不是很懂，
投資時也有許多問題產生，
所以就得來上這堂課。

"Why do we still attend this class even though we've read the book beforehand?" asked some classmates. "Some things in the book may not be fully understood and there are also many questions that come up during the investment process, so that's why we need to attend this class."

學投資跟學開車一樣，
光看書等於看一本教練手冊，
單看教練手冊不能學會開車，
接下來就得到教練場聽教練講解。
這堂課就像教練場一樣，
會把所有關於投資的道理跟大家講清楚，
同學只要把上課內容搞清楚就足以應付股市各種狀況。
在上課過程中歡迎隨時舉手發問！

Investing is similar to learning how to drive.
Reading a book on investing is like reading a driving manual; just as reading a manual alone won't make you a proficient driver, reading a book on investing won't make you an expert.
This class acts as a driving lesson, with the instructor clearly explaining all the principles of investing.
With a thorough understanding of the class material, you will be prepared to navigate various situations in the stock market.
Feel free to ask questions at any time during the class!

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上完課之後就要開車上路，路上的狀況更複雜，
我們希望仍然跟同學保持聯絡。
在投資上有任何問題歡迎隨時打電話給我，
或者到討論區來一起討論。
這堂課永久免費保固，歡迎再來回鍋，
只要事先寫伊媚兒報名即可。

After finishing class, we'll hit the road, which is becoming increasingly complex. Nevertheless, we hope to stay connected with our classmates. If you have any questions regarding investments, don't hesitate to give me a call, or join us in the discussion forum for a group discussion. This course comes with a permanent, free guarantee, and you're welcome to revisit as long as you send an email to register in advance.

回鍋是免費的，所謂免費指免學費。
舊生中午要吃便當的話每人2天400元，
不然三不五時來吃便當我就倒閉了。

The term "free" only applies to tuition fees and not to lunch. Former students who want to order lunch must pay for it, at a cost of approximately NT$200 per day. Otherwise, if they only come back for the free lunch, I may run into financial difficulties.

舊生要一本新的講義，70元，
超過一年以上來回鍋才需要新的講義。

The lecture materials are periodically updated, and a new copy can be purchased for NT$70. It is recommended to purchase updated materials if your current edition is at least one year old.

現在改為線上教學之後回鍋更方便了，
自己到討論區看講稿，隨時隨地複習。

With the course now being offered through online learning, reviewing and discussing the material has become more convenient. You can access the discussion forum to read the lecture text and review it anytime and anywhere.

以往每年9月或10月份本班還會召開同學會，
邀請投資有成的同學來分享心得。
同學會場面相當盛大，北中南合計超過1千500人。
台北場在內湖美麗華飯店，有摩天輪大樓的那家飯店，
參加同學須分擔場地費用每人300元。
台中在救國團，每人200元，
高雄是慧雯同學提供的場地，免費。

In the past, the class would organize yearly reunion parties during September or October, inviting accomplished alumni to share their experiences. These events were hosted in various regions of Taiwan, including the north, central, and south, and were attended by over 15,000 alumni annually. The Taipei party was held at the Miramar Hotel in Neihu District, which boasts a Ferris wheel, and attendees were asked to contribute a fee of NT$300 per person to cover the venue costs. The Taichung gathering took place in a classroom at the China Youth Corps, while the Kaohsiung reunion was held in a hall generously provided by Ms. Hueiwen.

巴菲特班同學會 Reunion parties：2007、2008、2009、09高、2010、10中、10高、2011、11中、11高、2012、12中、12高、2013、13中、13高、2014、14中、14高、2015、15中、15高、2016、16中、16高

同學會2017年之後不再舉辦，
大家到討論區見面，等於天天在開同學會。

The reunion party has not been held since 2017, but you can meet in the discussion forum, which is equivalent to having a reunion party every day.

我出過兩本書，第一本書是「巴菲特選股魔法書」2004年出版，
第二本書「巴菲特選股神功」2008年出版，這是一本漫畫書。
這兩本是不一樣的書，內容70%不同。
跟我買書最便宜，因為作者跟出版社買書可以打6折，
用成本價賣給各位。
以後買書請逕洽書局或出版社購買。

I have written two books, the first is "Warren Buffett’s Magic Book of Stock Selection" published in 2004, and the second book, "Warren Buffett's Skills of Stock Selection" was published in 2008. This is a comic book.
These two books are different, with 70% different content.
Buying a book from me is the cheapest, because the author can get a 40% discount from the publisher. I am providing the books to you at cost price.From now on, please purchase books directly from bookstores or publishers.

也就是上這堂課我這一輩子只會賺同學一次學費，
以後跟我買書、參加同學會、來回鍋，都賺不到一毛錢！

This means that I will only earn tuition from you only once. I won’t make a dime from buying books, attending reunion parties and returning to class !

也就是上這堂課我這一輩子只會賺同學一次學費，
以後跟我買書、參加同學會、來回鍋，都賺不到一毛錢！

This means that I will only earn tuition from you once. I won't make any money from selling books, hosting reunion gatherings, or having you return to class.

只有這樣才可能教大家學會投資，
看了書之後來上課，平常一起討論，有需要來回鍋。
學投資是一段「練」的過程，
體會出股價的確是如我所講的道理在走，才會照著做，
通常需要經過2次的多空循環才能體會。
第一次碰到多頭天天在漲，以為賺錢真簡單，
第一次碰到空頭天天下跌，又覺得生不如死，
等第二次碰到才發現原來多頭就是這麼一回事，空頭是如此這般。

The only way to teach someone how to invest is by combining reading books, taking courses, participating in forums, and attending class when necessary. Investing is a process of practice that requires an understanding of the principles that govern the stock market and prices. This usually takes two bull and bear market cycles to fully comprehend. During the first encounter with a bull market, rising prices every day can make it seem easy to make money. But during the first encounter with a bear market, when prices are falling every day, it can feel like life is worse than death. It's only after the second encounter that one realizes that both bull and bear markets are just part of the process.

股市多空跟總體經濟循環是一致的，
景氣循環大概3到5年一個循環，一個循環指一上一下。

The bull market and bear market are synchronized with the economic cycle, which lasts approximately 3 to 5 years and encompasses one cycle of fluctuation, including a rise and fall.

經過2次循環亦即至少5年的時間才能夠體會，
過程中一群志同道合的人共同研究比較容易進入狀況。

It takes at least 2 cycles, or 5 years, for one to fully understand the stock market. In this process, it's easier for a group of people with shared beliefs to learn and understand the market together.

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發表於 2017-12-31 21:15 資料主頁文集私人訊息

這幾年觀察同學做投資差異很大，本班有一位傑出校友凱元，
他是離投資很遠的人，在鐵工廠上班，一開始錢不多。
2008年5,000多點時來上課，知道那是低點就買滿股票，
重點是他懂得一路抱，抱到高點9,800減碼，
算一算了賺了2倍。
第二次在2012年初自己明白那是低點了，
他選的股票相當不錯，跟我推薦美利達、豐泰的表現都十分亮眼。

In recent years, I have observed significant differences in my students' investment behavior. One standout student is Kaiyuen, who started as a beginner investor. He previously worked in a steel factory and had limited funds. In 2008, he took my course when the stock market index was at 5,000 points, and he saw it as a low point to invest. He held onto his stocks for a long time, and when the index reached its peak at 9,800 points, he reduced his position, thereby doubling his investment. In early 2012, he once again recognized a low point and invested in stocks such as Merida Bikes (9914.TW) and Feng Tay (9910.TW), which turned out to perform well.

凱元2008年來找我時錢不多，
曾跟我說「一個人資產有 1 千萬元就是有錢人，
對他而言是遙不可及的夢。」
最近他說已經離1千萬不遠了，
用現代術語來講，以前千萬元是GPS上的小黑點，
現在則看到車尾燈。

When Kaiyuen came to see me in 2008, he didn't have much money. He told me, For someone with a net worth of ten million dollars, they are considered wealthy, a far-off aspiration for him. However, he recently informed me that he is nearing the ten million mark. To put it in contemporary terms, ten million dollars was once a speck on the GPS map, but now it is within reach, visible like a set of taillights.

有人問我如何衡量一個人是否學會巴菲特神功？
主要看兩點：若買的股票跟我的入圍名單長得很像，
又懂得在股價便宜買，一路抱到貴才賣。
做到這兩點就算學會巴菲特神功。

When asked how to determine if someone has learned the magic of Buffett, I use two criteria: first, whether the stocks they have acquired align with my personal watch list, and second, if they consistently follow the strategy of buying stocks at a cheap price and selling when the price is expensive. Adhering to these methods is a clear indication of a successful application of Buffett's teachings.

另外一位同學，凱元的同事，2011年9,000多點來上課，
我警告高點到了應當減碼，
他卻不聽仍去買了遊戲股和太陽能股，
因此賠了錢就對投資喪失信心。
在真的低點來臨，2012年初7,000點，反而不敢買股票。

A colleague of Kaiyuen, another student, came to class at more than 9,000 points in 2011. I advised him that the market was approaching its peak and it was time to sell. However, he ignored my warning and invested in video game and solar energy stocks instead. Unfortunately, this resulted in financial loss and eroded his confidence in investing. When the market declined to 7,000 points in 2012, he became too apprehensive to invest in stocks again.

凱元非常熱心一直拉著同事進場，還挑了5檔股票給他參考，
可是同事就是不敢買。
當時凱元連續打了5通電話問我？
我跟他說「GDP低點到了應該進場買股票，」同事不敢買。
我說「把股價圖攤開給他看，當時很多股票未漲，」還是不買。
我說「叫他買個3分之一，反正持股前3分之一亂買亂賣
都沒關係，」同事還是不敢。
最後只好說「把他的頭壓著，叫他一定要買、一定要買」，
後來同事總算買了，可是抱不到三天就賣掉了。
凱元問要如何才能讓他的同事敢買股票而且又願意抱著久？
我雙手一攤「不要理他了，很顯然他跟佛無緣，跟巴菲特無緣！」

Kaiyuen was eager to encourage his colleague to invest in stocks and even provided five specific stock tips, but his colleague was too scared to make the investment. Kaiyuen sought my advice several times. I advised that during a period of low GDP, it was a good time to invest in stocks, but the colleague was still wary. I recommended showing the colleague a stock price chart and explaining that many stocks hadn't risen yet, but the colleague remained hesitant. I encouraged the colleague to invest a third of their funds, emphasizing that the outcome of the first third doesn't matter, but the colleague was still uninterested. In the end, I told Kaiyuen to "Press his head to the desk and tell him to buy, to buy." and the colleague eventually invested, but sold the stocks after just three days. Kaiyuen asked me for advice on how to help his colleague overcome their fear and hold the stocks for a longer period. I shrugged my hands in frustration and said, "Forget about it, it's clear that the colleague has missed his chance with Buddha and missed the opportunity to learn from Mr. Buffett."

為何他的同事學巴菲特會失敗？
原因在上完課之後的第一次沒跟著照做，
9,000點我喊減碼，他未照做，未體會出股價的道理。
建議同學上課後的第一次不管願不願意
至少撥一半資金跟我們做做看。
現在來到1萬多點，更貴了，請持股勿超過一半，
跟著做一次，體會出股價道理，就容易學會神功。

Why did his colleague fail to learn the Buffett method? The reason is that he didn't follow my instructions after the class. I called to sell at 9,000, but he didn't, thus he was unable to fully comprehend the stock price concepts. My suggestion is that after the class, one should allocate at least half of their available funds towards investing with me, regardless of their personal preferences. The index currently stands at around 10,000 points, making the stock even more costly. It's not advisable to hold more than half of one's funds in stock. By following my lead just once, they will easily understand the principles of stock pricing.

本堂課會從最基本開始教，不用擔心完全沒概念，
上課過程有聽不懂的地方就舉手，
我即會停下來讓同學聽到懂為止。
只要給我2天，就可以把您變成巴菲特，
讓同學的投資思想跟行為跟巴菲特一樣。
即便是完全一竅不通的人也會玩全世界的股票，
只要給我2天的時間。

This course starts from the basics, so don't be concerned if you are a newcomer. If you have any questions during class, simply raise your hand and I will clarify until you fully understand. In just two days, I will transform you into a Buffett by imparting Mr. Buffett's investment strategies and approaches. Even individuals with no prior knowledge can learn to invest globally. Just give me two days.

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發表於 2017-12-31 21:26 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 2/21：知與不知
Lecture 2/21 Knowable and unknowable

在進一步講解巴菲特理論之前要先提醒各位，
股票市場的風險非常大，80%的人賠錢！
這次儘管上了1萬點，可是賺到錢的人仍然不多，
因為多半漲在台積電、大立光，散戶不會買的股票。

Before discussing Buffett's theory, it's crucial to keep in mind that the stock market is associated with significant risks, with the majority of investors (80%) incurring losses. Despite the index reaching 10,000 points recently, only a few investors benefited as the majority of gains were focused in TSMC (2330.TW) and Largan (3008.TW), which are not widely held by retail investors.

這是股票，玩期貨、選擇權又是多少人賺錢？
今周刋訪問台灣期貨之神黃毅雄，
他說「玩期貨1萬人僅2人賺錢！」，
其意即沒有人能賺到錢。
黃桑雖貴為期貨之神，但一生中破產過8次，
想必這輩子過得很痛若。
一位期貨營業員曾跟我說，
他的客戶大概每3個月就會陣亡一批，
他主要工作是在開發新客戶。
一聽很令我錯愕，仔細思量，但是又何奈！

This is regarding equity investment. How many investors make a profit through futures and options trading?
The cover story of Business Today magazine features Taiwanese futures expert Yisiong Huang.
According to Huang, only 2 out of 100 players make money when trading futures.
This highlights the difficulty and risk involved in futures trading.
Interestingly, despite being a futures expert, Huang has declared bankruptcy 8 times in his life.
A futures broker once revealed to me that some of his clients lose all their money every three months.
His main responsibility is to acquire new clients.
This information was surprising and highlights the reality of the volatile nature of futures trading.

曾問過營業員玩當沖的多少人賺錢？
當沖即當日沖銷，當天先買後賣，或先賣再買，
看今天是開高走低或開低走高，
2種狀況猜對其一就會賺錢，機率應是1/2，
可是營業員說「玩當沖的人95%賠錢。」
我還回他「不錯啊！至少還有5%的人賺錢，」
營業員卻答「可是那5%的人每次都是不一樣的人。」

I once asked a broker about the success rate of day traders. Day trading involves buying and selling securities within the same day, or selling first and then buying. If a trader accurately predicts market trends, they can make a profit. Theoretically, the chance of success is 50%. The broker informed me that, unfortunately, 95% of day traders incur losses. I responded optimistically, "At least 5% of traders make money," but the broker retorted, "Those 5% of profitable traders change every time." This emphasizes the volatile and ever-changing nature of day trading and the difficulties associated with it.

這就是股市殘酷的事實，80%的人賠錢！
很多人一定奇怪，股票不是漲跟跌而已嗎，
用猜的機率該是1/2？
不是1/2，因為要猜2次，
買和賣都猜對才會賺錢，機率1/4。

This is the bitter truth about the stock market: 80% of investors fail to make a profit. Some investors might be surprised by this statistic, as they may have thought that stock prices only fluctuate, providing them with a 50-50 chance of making a successful investment. However, the reality is that one must accurately predict both the right time to purchase and the right time to sell, which decreases the probability of success to only 25%.

1/4接近25%，這就是股市80%的人賠錢的原因，
因為大部分人在玩猜的遊戲。
說大家在猜，一定有人不服氣，
投資人每天都很用功啊，
一大早起來要先看美股收盤收得怎麼樣，
然後再看工商、經濟各大財經報紙和雜誌，
甚至周六日都來上課，怎麼會說在猜呢？
因為大家花時間在研究一些不可知的問題，
不可能知道答案的問題。

The likelihood of success in the stock market is approximately 25%, which is why a majority of players, 80%, lose money. This statement that investing in the stock market is simply a matter of guesswork may be disputed by some. Many investors put in substantial effort, such as rising early to follow the close of the US market, reading well-known financial publications like the Commercial Times and Economics Daily, and even attending classes on weekends. However, the fact remains that they are analyzing uncertain variables and making predictions about unknowable events, making it plausible to argue that stock market investing is essentially a guessing game.

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發表於 2017-12-31 21:49 資料主頁文集私人訊息

投資人都在研究什麼？
第一、都在問下個禮拜什麼股票最會漲？在找明牌，
這也是今天大家來上課最主要目的，看麥可報什麼明牌。
問題是誰知道呢？若有人認為可知，
請現在就把答案寫下來，等到下周五收盤後再核對看看，
保證一定猜錯。這是一個不可知的問題。

What are investors researching? They are interested in finding out which stocks will likely have the largest gains in the coming week and are seeking stock tips. The primary objective for everyone in the classroom is to seek advice from Michael. Who has the answer? If anyone thinks they know, please write down their response and check it after the end of next Friday. However, keep in mind that this is an unknowable issue, and it is possible that your guess will be incorrect.

第二、大家會看公司的獲利預估，今年、明年賺多少錢？
因為股價反應基本面。
公司的盈餘預估是研究員估的，
我以前就是外資電子股研究員，常常在拜訪公司，
問公司現在產能利用率如何？產品毛利是多少？
成本結構又怎樣？未來擴產計劃？
根據公司的回答估出獲利。

Secondly, everyone is examining the company's projections for its profits this year and next year, as stock prices reflect fundamental factors. The company's profit forecasts are made by analysts. I used to work as a foreign electronics analyst, frequently visiting companies and inquiring about their current capacity utilization rate, product gross margins, cost structure, and future expansion plans. I would then make profit projections based on the company's responses.

歐美基金經理人會要求預估未來3年，
日本則要未來5年，越長越好估。
一個日本經理人問我飛瑞電子未來5年盈餘預估，
我花不到5分鐘就估出來，本來當天要傳真給他，
覺得太快，隔一天才傳，
還在電話上跟他說「昨天特別加班幫你估這個數字。」
反正他亂問我就亂估，
問未來5年飛瑞電子獲利會如何？
我連自己未來5年人在什麼地方都不知？

European and American fund managers require profit projections for the next three years, while Japanese managers require forecasts for five years. The longer the forecast period, the easier it is to estimate. A Japanese manager once approached me for a five-year earnings forecast for Phoenix Electronics (2411.TW). I finished the estimate in under five minutes and initially planned to send it by fax on the same day, but decided it was too early and sent it the next day. I informed the manager over the phone that I had worked overtime the previous day to complete the estimate. Quick checks only produce rough estimates. How can one predict Phoenix Electronics's profits in the next five years? I don't even know where I'll be in the next five years.

當研究員時常常在事後把預估拿來驗證看看，
發現誤差都很大，不是30-40%的問題，而是方向，
我都估成長，其實多半衰退。
有人說研究員估不準是因為外部人，公司沒透露實情，
公司內部人知道什麼狀況？
即便公司老闆能夠掌握的也頂多未來3到6個月的出貨狀況，
客戶下單都是到前3個月才確認數量，
若當時市況不好後面的訂單就砍掉了。
可是我們都在看未來3年的獲利，瞎掰居多！

As an analyst, I frequently look back at past predictions. I have discovered that the error rate is substantial, not only in terms of magnitude (30-40%) but also in direction. I often predict growth, but it frequently turns out to be a decline. Some people attribute the lack of accuracy in predictions to the fact that analysts are outsiders and companies do not disclose all the relevant information. But what do the company insiders know? Even the CEO can only control deliveries up to the next 3 to 6 months. Customer orders are confirmed three months before they are placed, and if market conditions are unfavorable, orders can be cancelled. Despite this, we still focus on predicting profits for the next three years, often relying on conjecture.

當研究員時最喜歡問公司訂單能見度可以看未來幾個月？
如今自己開了這個班才發現這是一個非常好笑的問題。
若問我巴菲特班訂單能見度能看未來幾個月？
只能說這個月的招生狀況是好還是不好我大概可以猜得出來，
可是下個月以後就全然不知，因還零星在報名。
甚至問今天到底會有多少人來上課？
到現在都還搞不清楚，
不過比較好的是10:00再來清點人數就好，
因10:00才要叫便當，沒有存貨的問題。

As a researcher, I used to inquire about the visibility of orders for the company for the next few months. Now that I run my own class, I find it a funny question to ask. When asked about the visibility of orders for the Buffett class, I can only estimate the current month's enrollment status as good or not. Beyond that, I have no idea as enrollment is unpredictable. Even estimating the number of attendees for today's class remains uncertain. However, I need to conduct a headcount only at 10:00, as this is the time when lunch orders must be placed and there should be no concerns regarding inventory.

第三、投資人還會問股價多少錢可以買？將漲到多少錢？
這才是大家最想問的問題。

Third, investors frequently inquire about the purchase price and the expected stock appreciation. This is the most popular question among investors.

這幾年外資在看宏達電的股價，
2010年跌到300元時公司出來喊
「要展開機海戰略，不惜犧牲毛利率來搶市場占有率。」
一聽要犧牲毛利率，外資都在喊賣，後來股價漲到1,300元，
外資改口上看1,500，後來卻跌到40元。
顯見股價漲到多少連外資也看不清楚，
這是一個不可知的問題。

In recent years, foreign investors have been observing the stock price of HTC (2498.TW). In 2010, when the stock price fell to NT$300, the company announced, "We will launch an aggressive strategy to seize market share, even at the cost of sacrificing gross profit margin." Upon hearing about the sacrifice of gross profit margin, foreign investors started selling, but later the stock price rose to NT$1,300. Foreign investors revised their target price to NT$1,500, but later it fell to NT$40. It's evident that even foreign institutional investors don't have a clear understanding of where the stock price will go, making this an unknowable issue.

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發表於 2017-12-31 21:59 資料主頁文集私人訊息

第四、大家會問大盤將漲到幾點？
尤其現在1萬多點了更是關心。
2016年6月英國脫歐，赫赫有名的大師都看得很空，
索羅斯喊「金融海嘯2.0來了！」
羅傑斯說「未來一兩年不會買股票」，
葛林斯潘「英國脫歐比1987年道瓊暴跌還糟」，
後來指數硬是創了新高，大師們全部摃龜，
由此可知這也是個不可知的問題。

Fourthly, individuals are curious about the extent of market growth, particularly given the market's current level of over 10,000 points. In June 2016, during the UK's vote to leave the EU, prominent experts held pessimistic views. Soros proclaimed "Financial crisis 2.0 is arriving!" while Rogers said "I won't be buying stocks in the next one or two years," and Greenspan stated "Brexit is even worse than the 1987 Dow Jones crash." Despite these predictions, the market defied expectations and hit new highs, causing these experts to be humbled. This emphasizes that the market's future is an unknowable matter.

在股市大家想問的問題不外乎以上4個而已。
這4個問題說穿了就在問股價的漲跌，
這是不可知的！
買股票的錢是大家辛辛苦苦賺來的血汗錢，
把它押在不可知的問題上是很危險的事，
股票不能玩猜的遊戲。

In the stock market, the questions on everyone's mind are typically limited to the above four. At their core, these questions concern the fluctuation of stock prices, which is unforeseeable. TThe funds invested in stocks are earned through hard work and it's perilous to gamble them on uncertain factors. Stock investment should not be approached as a game of luck.

我不是要大家一定要長期投資，而是不要猜。
投機speculation英文的原意是猜，
不是跑短是投機，長抱是投資，
而是猜是投機，不猜是投資。

I don't advocate that everyone should invest for the long-term, but avoid speculating. The etymology of "speculation" in English refers to making guesses. It's not that short-term is speculation, long-term is investment, but guessing is speculation, not guessing is investment.

學投資的第一步，非常重要的是要分清楚知跟不知，
投資充滿了變數，要如何才找到答案？
根據可知的事實去做決策就能找到答案！

The first step in learning to invest is to distinguish between knowing and not knowing, which is extremely important. The world of investment is full of variables, so how can we find the answer? The answer can be found by making decisions based on known facts.

什麼是可知？什麼是不可知？
股價的漲跌不可知，貴淑卻是可以算，
按盈再表就可得出股價貴或便宜。
只要在股價便宜時買，貴了賣掉，便宜買，貴了賣，
這樣一直做、反覆做，即能賺到大錢。
如此就不是在玩猜的遊戲，
因都是根據可知的事實在做決策，
賺錢的機率將大大提升。

What is knowable and what is unknowable? The fluctuation of stock prices is uncertain, but it can be assessed if a stock is cheap or expensive. Michael On's table calculates the fair value for each stock. By buying when stocks are underpriced and selling when they are overpriced, and repeating this strategy, one can enhance their wealth. This minimizes the reliance on guesswork as decisions are made based on verifiable data, thereby increasing the odds of making profits.

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發表於 2017-12-31 22:00 資料主頁文集私人訊息

香港李嘉誠從2013年開始大量抛售中國的房地產，
轉去投資歐洲，買下許多英國公司。
這幾年中國房地產漲得老高，歐洲基礎產業卻很便宜。
甚至李超人的成份股香港電燈，香港電力公司，股價貴了，
一樣是把它分拆出去，然後把股權賣掉一半。

Li Ka-shing, a prominent figure in Hong Kong, started selling off his Chinese real estate in 2013 and redirected his attention towards European investments, acquiring multiple firms in the UK. In recent years, real estate prices in China have skyrocketed while infrastructure in Europe still remains relatively cheap. Even Superman Li's core holding companies Hong Kong Electric (0006.HK), a Power Company, are expensive.
He split it up and sold half of his shares.

李嘉誠在幹嘛呢？就在賣貴的，去買便宜，
可是一般人卻是只要股價繼續漲，就不認為它貴，
這是贏家跟輸家的差別！

What Mr. Li is doing is just the basic strategy of buying cheap and selling expensive. As long as the stock price continues to rise, many investors consider it not overpriced. This distinguishes successful investors from unsuccessful ones.

「股價漲跌不可知」是世界上最難以了解的一句話，
第一堂課就特別強調，
可是上完課之後同學仍一直在問股價，
甚至拐彎抹角在問。
同學最喜歡問我「這支股票現在可以買嗎？」
正是在問這支股票買了之後會不會馬上漲？
因若買了之後下跌，就不是現在可以買。
我訓了他一頓「股價漲跌不可知，貴淑才可知」，
同學馬上問「夠便宜了嗎？」
仍然在問股價漲跌。

"The rise and fall of stock prices cannot be known" is one of the most difficult concepts in the world to grasp. Despite this emphasis in the first class, students kept asking about stock prices, even through indirect means. The question they are most concerned about is "Can I buy this stock now?" they are asking about the stock's immediate rise after purchase. If the stock price falls after buying, it is no longer a good time to buy. I tried to explain to them, "The rise and fall of the stock price is unknowable, but we can calculate whether a stock is cheap or expensive." However, the students quickly followed suit: "Is it cheap enough?" It shows that they are concerned about the rise and fall of stock prices.

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#10

發表於 2017-12-31 22:05 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 3/21：巴六點
Lecture 3/21 Buffett's Six Criteria

2004波克夏年報
1.大型股(每年稅前淨利至少7千5百萬美元)
2.展現一致的獲利能力
(Demonstrated consistent earning power)
(我們對未來的計畫或具轉機的公司沒興趣)
3.高ROE且低負債
4.良好的經營團隊(我們不提供管理人員)
5.簡單的企業(若牽涉到太多高科技，則超出我們的理解範圍)
6.出價(在價格未確定前，請勿浪費雙方太多時間)

我們將儘快答覆是否感興趣(不超過5分鐘)。

Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Annual Report
We are eager to hear from principals or their representatives about businesses that meet all of the following criteria:
(1) Large purchases (at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless the business will fit into one of our existing units),
(2) Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of no interest to us, nor are “turnaround” situations),
(3) Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,
(4) Management in place (we can’t supply it),
(5) Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),
(6) An offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily,
about a transaction when price is unknown).

We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer — customarily within five minutes — as to whether we’re interested.

來看一下巴菲特怎麼選股，祂的選股原則就這6點，
只要根據這6點去選股就可以跟祂一樣賺到大錢，
巴六點是全世界最偉大的一篇文獻。

In exploring Mr. Buffett's method for selecting stocks, it is clear that he relies on a set of six criteria. Adhering to these principles can lead to substantial financial gains similar to those achieved by Mr. Buffett. The 'Buffett Six Criteria' is regarded as a highly valuable tool for choosing stocks.

第一點選股原則：買大型股，稅前淨利至少7,500萬美金

這一點就跟我們平常的想法不一樣，
我們小散戶不喜歡買大型股，因股性牛皮不會漲。
我們喜歡買小型股，以為籌碼少、易炒作。
小型股的確是易炒作，問題是誰被炒作？
飆股在還沒有飆上去之前誰知道會飆？
等到飆上去了想追又不敢追，心裡癢癢的，
下定決心追上去往往高興不了幾天就跌下來而被套牢，
每天過著提心吊膽的日子，
小型股易炒作，是我們被人家炒作。

The first criteria: Large purchases, at least $75 million of pre-tax earnings

This is different from our usual thinking. As retail investors, we do not favor buying large cap stocks because of their steady price fluctuations. We prefer small-cap stocks because we think they have less capital and are easier to speculate. While it is true that small-cap stocks are easier to speculate, the question is who is being taken advantage of? Who knows which stocks will surge before they actually do? When the stocks surge and we want to follow but dare not, it's itching. Determined to catch up, prices often fall and we get trapped after a few days of excitement. We live a life full of fear every day. Small-cap stocks are easy to speculate, but it is we who are being speculated.

這裡提到大型股，老巴看的是公司獲利，
可是一般在定義大型股或小型卻是看股本，
這兩種定義何者有道理？
買股票是希望它來幫我們賺錢，
能夠賺到大錢的才是大公司，
賺不了錢股本大何用！
看獲利才有道理。

Here when referring to large stocks, Mr. Buffett focuses on the company's profitability, while the distinction between large and small stocks is typically based on market capitalization. Which of these two criteria is more meaningful? As investors, we buy stocks with the aim of generating profit and only those that can generate substantial profits can be considered big companies. If a company is not profitable, then having a large market capitalization is of no value. Checking for profitability is therefore the logical thing to do.

第二點選股原則：要展現過一致的獲利能力

很多人跟巴菲特報明牌，
祂會要求先看一下那家公司過去5年的財報。
什麼公司祂會有興趣？
不僅今年度業績要好，過去5年的獲利也要很穩定。
如果跟祂報勝華、元太、威盛這3家公司雖然過去的獲利很糟糕，
可是未來將有轉機，會有爆發力，
這種鬼故事祂是不會相信的。

The second criteria: Demonstrated consistent earning power

People recommend acquisition targets to Buffett, who then asks to see the financial reports of the company for the past five years. For a company to catch his attention, it must demonstrate not only strong earnings this year, but also a steady performance over the past five years. Claims of future turnarounds and explosive growth potential for companies such as Wintek (2384.TW), E Ink (8069.TW) and VIA Technologies (2388.TW), which have shown poor profits in the past, are unlikely to persuade him.

巴菲特提到「我們對未來的計劃沒興趣」，
什麼是未來計劃？就是公司的獲利預估。
研究員根據未來擴產計劃估出公司的獲利，
老巴竟沒興趣看，這一點讓我非常傷心，
當研究員花很多時間估的數字，想不到祂沒有興趣看！

Mr. Buffett stated that "future projections are of no interest to us" These future projections refer to the profit projections made for the company. Analysts estimate the company's profits based on its expansion plans. It can be discouraging to realize that Mr. Buffett does not have any interest in these projections. As a former analyst, I put in a significant amount of time creating these projections, only to find that Mr. Buffett does not consider them relevant.

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#11

發表於 2017-12-31 22:15 資料主頁文集私人訊息

第三點原則：高ROE而且要低負債

何為ROE？後面會解釋，
多高才是高ROE？指15%以上。
我們把一年定存利率固定在6.7%作為比較基礎，這是正常時期的利率，
當然現在利率已不到1%，因長期不景氣的結果。
一旦經濟恢復正常，合理的狀況利率應回升到6.7%。

The third criteria: Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt

What is ROE ? I will explain later.
An ROE higher than 15% is considered high. The one-year time deposit interest rate, which serves as a benchmark for evaluation, is set at 6.7% in normal economic times. However, due to the prolonged recession, current interest rates are lower than 1%. It is expected that interest rates will rise to 6.7% once the economy recovers.

一家公司的獲利能力好，指它的ROE比正常時期定存利率6.7%
好 1 倍以上才叫好，所以高ROE是15%以上。

A company's good profitability can be indicated by an ROE that is two times higher than the normal deposit rate of 6.7%. When this occurs, the ROE is considered high if it exceeds 15%.

第四點原則：要有良好的經營團隊，我們不提供管理人員

老巴管理好幾兆台幣的資產，
2017年波克夏帳上現金3兆台幣(1,000億美金)，
台灣中央政府歲出也才2兆，所謂富可敵國不過如此。
祂的錢70%在做併購，另外30%才在市場上買股票，
一般在作併購，都派自己人員去進駐，把公司整頓好，
可是巴菲特不一樣的地方則是讓他們自己去管理自己。

The fourth criteria: Management in place (we can’t supply it)

Mr. Buffett oversees several trillion Taiwanese dollars worth of assets. In 2017, Berkshire Hathaway had a total cash of NT$3 trillion (equivalent to US$100 billion), which was significantly more than the Taiwanese government's annual expenditure of NT$2 trillion, earning Mr. Buffett the title of being "richer than the country."

Of Mr. Buffett's funds, around 70% are allocated for mergers and acquisitions, while the remaining 30% are invested in stocks. While many companies send their own personnel to reorganize target companies during a merger, Mr. Buffett adopts a unique approach by allowing the companies he acquires to manage themselves.

看過一本書叫「巴菲特的CEO」，
作者訪問被祂併購公司的CEO，
問他們當初巴菲特是怎麼來談的？
那些CEO都說其實當初老巴問的問題都很簡單，
只是問一些財報上的數字，一年賺多少錢？
多少存貨？多少應收帳款？
最後老巴會問CEO一句話「有沒有興趣留下來幫我工作？」
若CEO點頭祂就把公司買下來，
之後好幾年不曾去看過那家公司，頂多看看每季財報。

I recently read a book named "Warren Buffett's CEO" in which the author interviewed the CEOs of companies that had been acquired by Mr. Buffett. The author sought to understand the questions Mr. Buffett posed during the acquisition process. The CEOs reported that Mr. Buffett's inquiries were straightforward and mainly centered on financial reports, including the company's annual earnings, inventory, and accounts receivable. Lastly, Mr. Buffett always asked the CEO if they were willing to continue working for him, and if the answer was yes, he would complete the acquisition. After the purchase, Mr. Buffett infrequently visited the company and mainly monitored its quarterly earnings reports.named "Warren Buffett's CEO" in which the author interviewed the CEOs of companies that had been acquired by Mr. Buffett. The author sought to understand the questions Mr. Buffett posed during the acquisition process. The CEOs reported that Mr. Buffett's inquiries were straightforward and mainly centered on financial reports, including the company's annual earnings, inventory, and accounts receivable. Lastly, Mr. Buffett always asked the CEO if they were willing to continue working for him, and if the answer was yes, he would complete the acquisition. After the purchase, Mr. Buffett infrequently visited the company and mainly monitored its quarterly earnings reports.

關於這一點，我也有做到，
我買了一張台積電也是讓他自己管理自己，
並沒有把張忠謀叫來問「你現在在幹嘛？」

Concerning this, I have taken a similar approach. I acquired a share of TSMC and allowed it to operate autonomously, without summoning CEO Morris Chang to inquire, "What are you doing now?"

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#12

發表於 2017-12-31 22:21 資料主頁文集私人訊息

第五點原則：簡單的企業，
牽涉太多的高科技將超出我們的理解範圍

巴菲特比較少買電子股，並非祂不了解電子股，
而是電子股不符合祂的選股原則，
因為電子業的產品都會變，一旦變了之後公司的獲利就變了樣。
光碟片中環跟錸德在CD-R時代非常賺錢，
DVD之後竟然虧損累累。

The fifth criteria: Simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it)

Buffett invests less in high-tech stocks, not because he lacks understanding of the industry, but because they do not align with his principles for stock selection. The constant changes in the technology industry often result in fluctuations in company profits. For example, companies like CMC (2323.TW) and Riteck (2349.TW) were profitable during the CD-R era, but suffered significant losses after the introduction of DVD technology.

這幾年波克夏在開股東大會台灣財經媒體也會派記者去參加，
2008年記者訪問到巴菲特，問祂有無興趣投資台灣？
老巴說台灣的公司都太小不夠他買。
記者又問有無看好什麼公司？
老巴回「台灣的半導體製造還不錯！」
聽祂這樣講就知道在指哪家公司？
當然是台積電！絕對不是聯電，
若要我們去挑一家台灣最具有國際競爭力的公司，
我們也會挑台積電。
由此可知巴菲特研究過台灣，而且懂電子，才會一講就講到重點！

Taiwan's financial media have sent reporters to Berkshire's shareholder meetings in recent years. In 2008, a reporter interviewed Buffett and asked about his interest in investing in Taiwan. Buffett stated that the size of Taiwanese companies was too small for him. The reporter then asked if there was a promising company, to which Buffett replied that Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing companies are excellent. When asked for a specific company, it is evident that he was referring to TSMC, not UMC (2303.TW). If we were to choose the most internationally competitive company in Taiwan, our choice would also be TSMC. This demonstrates that Mr. Buffett has thoroughly researched the Taiwan market and possesses a strong understanding of high-tech stocks. He is concise and to the point!

若有經久不變的電子公司老巴仍然會買，
從2011年開始巴菲特就大買IBM，買超過8%股份，成為最大股東。
IBM這幾年轉型從一個純粹的電腦硬體製造商，
變成系統整合商，硬體跟軟體全包。
一家公司的電腦系統，像人事、薪資、倉儲系統
整個交給IBM去設計的話，它的電腦都將從此全部用IBM的，
因系統非常複雜，不可能說換就換。
這樣一轉型經久不變的特質就出來了，因此巴菲特大買IBM。
IBM的ROE非常高，獲利還算穩定，
老巴買在180元美金，預期報酬率29%，買得很便宜。

If a high-tech company has a strong, long-lasting presence, Mr. Buffett may invest in it. This is demonstrated by his ownership of over 8% of IBM's shares since 2011, making him the largest shareholder. In recent years, IBM has transformed from a computer hardware manufacturer to a system integrator, providing both hardware and software solutions. When a company outsources its computer systems, such as personnel, salaries, and storage systems, to IBM, it becomes locked into using IBM's systems due to the complexity of the systems. This gives IBM a durable advantage and was a factor in Mr. Buffett's decision to invest. IBM has a high ROE and stable profits, and Mr. Buffett bought its shares for $180 with an expected return of 29%, which he considered a great value.

從2017年開始老巴賣光IBM持股，原因是在雲端業務競爭力不強。
近幾年遲不見轉機，股價表現疲弱，
在績效壓力下才賣掉。

Since 2017, Mr. Buffett has sold his IBM shares due to the underperformance of the company's cloud computing business. The company's stock price has been weak and its performance has not significantly improved in recent years, leading to pressure from investment performance, and ultimately resulting in Mr. Buffett's decision to sell.

第六點原則是要出價，在價格還沒有確定之前
不要浪費大家太多時間。

巴菲特為什麼要訂這個條款？
因為併購需要花長時間談判，
賣方見買方越來越有興趣往往暗地裡把售價抬高，
為了避免哄抬，要求先把售價提出來，祂會殺價的。

The sixth criteria: an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown)

Mr. Buffett established this clause to prevent high bidding during M&A negotiations, which can take a long time. When the seller senses the buyer's increased interest in the transaction, they often raise the price. To avoid this, he wants the seller to initiate the offer and engage in bargaining.

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#13

發表於 2017-12-31 22:29 資料主頁文集私人訊息

以上6點原則就是巴菲特的選股原則，
看了以上6點，請問同學哪一點的印象最深刻？

The above six criteria are Buffett's principles for selecting stocks. Which of these criteria do you find most impressive?

讓我印象最深刻的是第六點底下那一點
「我們將盡快答覆是否感興趣(不超過5分鐘)」
這點是最初在看巴菲特傳記覺得最不可思議的一點。
我是研究員，一家公司若完全沒有看過需花許多時間研究，
要先把公司的財報和相關產業報告拿出來看一下，
再到公司拜訪個2次以上，
才能確定這家公司好還是不好？
可是巴菲特居然稱不用5分鐘就可以答覆是否感興趣，
令人不可思議。

What caught my attention the most was the following statement under the sixth criterion: “We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer — customarily within five minutes — as to whether we’re interested.” This was one of the most remarkable things I came across while reading about Buffett. Being an analyst, researching a new company can be a tedious task that requires going through financial reports, industry reports, and making multiple visits to the company. But according to Mr. Buffett, he can make a decision on whether he's interested in investing in a company within five minutes. It's truly remarkable.

祂說5分鐘是指有興趣來談，整個流程是這樣：
有人跟祂推薦某家公司，祂會要求看公司過去5年財報，
5分鐘之後即會表明有沒有興趣來談，
至於買或不買沒那麼快，還需要經過一段時間談判。

He stated that the five minutes refer to the time it takes for him to reply on his interest in delving deeper. The process goes like this: if someone recommends a company to him, he will ask for the last five years of the company's financial reports. If he's interested, he'll respond within five minutes. However, the act of purchasing may not be as swift as it requires time for negotiation.

覺得不可思議是巴菲特沒養任何研究員，
所有投資的案子都是祂一個人在看。
其他投資大師養一堆研究員幫忙過濾案子，
1994年我在怡富證券，曾在香港怡和酒店
跟索羅斯
的研究員一起吃早餐，跟他介紹台灣的IC產業。
老巴沒養研究員，所有案子都祂一人在看，居然不用5分鐘。

I am amazed that Mr. Buffett doesn't have any analysts working for him. He personally evaluates all investment opportunities, while many other fund managers rely on a team of analysts to help them research. In 1994, while I was working at Jardine Fleming Securities, I had the chance to have a working breakfast at the Mandarin Hotel in Hong Kong with Soro's analyst and presented information about Taiwan's integrated circuit industry. Unlike other fund managers, Mr. Buffett does not have an analyst. He does his own research and doesn't need five minutes to make a decision.

而且巴菲特投資的金額都很大，
祂買的那家鐵路公司花了440億美金，台幣1.3兆，
這麼大一筆錢若交給我們去投資，請問要想多久？
不要說5分鐘，一年半載都還下不了手。

And Buffett's investments are also very significant. The railway company he acquired cost US$440 million, or NT$1.3 trillion. If we were given such a large amount for investment, how long would we take to decide? It wouldn't be as quick as five minutes, it would take us a year and a half to make a final decision.

現在讓我覺得不可思議的是為什麼要5分鐘這麼久！
有了盈再表根本不用5分鐘，只要15秒內就可以完成。
底下這張表就是盈再表，
把股票代號輸入到左上角1723這一個格，
按Enter就會把資料抓下來，整個過程15秒內完成。
右上角若出現「合格」就差不多。

What puzzles me now is why it takes so long to 5 minutes. With the help of On's table, the process of determining interest in a company takes only 15 seconds, not five minutes. The table is called On's table. To use it, simply enter the stock code into cell 1723 in the top left corner, press enter to retrieve the data, and the whole process will be completed within 15 seconds. A stock is considered qualified if "OK" appears in the top right corner.

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#14

發表於 2017-12-31 22:40 資料主頁文集私人訊息

同學繳了學費之後，
請到討論區右上角註冊，建議用藝名註冊以保護隱私，
再來依媚兒告知註冊名，
確認之後即可在討論區下載盈再表與發言討論。

After paying your tuition, please go to the upper right corner of the forum to register. For privacy reasons, it is suggested that you register using a stage name. After registering, send me an email with your registered name. Once I have confirmed your name, you will be able to download On's table and join in the discussions on the forum.

盈再表下載在討論區置頂處，標紅字，
下載下來是一個Excel檔案，
包含了台美港中全球等49國，
大部份上市櫃公司的財報都抓得到，連烏克蘭都有。

On's table can be downloaded from the top of the forum, identified by red letters. This Excel file contains the financial reports of listed companies in 49 countries including Taiwan, the US, Hong Kong, China, and the world, with no exception to Ukraine.

盈再表一定要在Windows系統底下的Office才能跑，
其它皆不行，
Office 2003不能用了，2007跑起來不順，
請用2010以後的版本。
打開盈再表，上方出現「啟用內容」點它即可使用。

On's table must be run on a Windows system using Microsoft Office. It is not compatible with other systems. Office 2003 is no longer supported, while Office 2007 may not run smoothly. It is recommended to use a version after 2010. Once the file of On's table is opened, click "Enable Content" to use it.

拿到盈再表之後同學將不會抱怨為何要學費這麼高，
有同學說「光盈再表的價值至少就值學費了」
一聽原以為他在稱讚我，
仔細一想才發現不對，他在罵我，
因盈再表的價值超過學費，
那不表示我上這堂課沒有價值？

Upon obtaining On's table, you will no longer question the high tuition fee. Some students have stated that the value of On's table is worth more than the tuition. Initially, I interpreted this as a compliment, but upon further thought, I realized it was intended as a joke. If the value of On's table surpasses the tuition fee, does this imply that my lectures have no value?

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#15

發表於 2017-12-31 22:47 資料主頁文集私人訊息

記者問巴菲特「在你的投資準則哪一點最重要？」
老巴說「可持續的競爭力和良好的經營團隊最重要！」
記者又問「如何評估經營團隊？」
老巴回「我主要看過去的紀錄，發現跟打棒球不同，
經理人年紀越大越好。」(引自Business Wire 2006年2月)
巴菲特說他最喜歡買的公司是創辦人準備退休，
想把股票換成鈔票，好好去享受人生。
張忠謀應該打通電話給巴菲特，把公司賣給祂會比較好。

A reporter asked Mr. Buffett what the most important criteria was for his investments, to which he replied that sustainability and a strong management team were the key factors. The reporter then asked how he evaluated the management team, and Mr. Buffett said he focused on their past performance, adding that investing was different from playing baseball and that older managers were typically better. (Quoted from Business Wire, February 2006). Mr. Buffett's ideal company is one whose founder is close to retirement and looking to cash in their stock and enjoy their later years. It is suggested that Morris Chang reach out to Mr. Buffett and consider selling TSMC to him.

巴菲特喜歡買老的公司，這一點跟我們的想法又不一樣。
我們小散戶喜歡買新上市櫃股票，以為有蜜月期股價會飆，
可是蜜月期之後下場都沒有很好。

Mr. Buffett has a preference for buying well-established companies, which is different from the common perception. Retail investors often purchase newly-listed stocks with the hope that the stock prices will rise during the initial excitement period. However, the results are not always positive once the initial excitement phase ends.

其實台股也是一樣，讓人買得放心的公司多半是老公司，
別說傳統產業統一、台塑、巨大是老公司，
即便電子股台達電、台積電也是老公司，
經得起時間考驗的公司才是買得放心的公司。

In fact, the situation is similar in Taiwan's stock market. Companies that are established and have a proven track record are usually more likely to instill confidence in investors. This applies not just to traditional industries like Uni-President (1216.TW), Formosa Plastics (1301.TW), and Giant (9921.TW), but also to electronics companies such as Delta Electrics (2308.TW) and TSMC. The ability to withstand the test of time can bring reassurance to investors.

從以上幾點看來，發現我們選股的角度跟巴菲特不一樣：
我們喜歡買小型股，巴菲特買大型股。
公司的大小我們看的是股本，老巴著重淨利。
公司的獲利我們看預估，老巴則重視過去的紀錄。
我們喜歡買轉機股，老巴強調獲利要維持一致，......。
選股的觀點跟巴菲特不同，
這是為何我們投資會賠錢原因，
因我們跟在股市賺到大錢的人看法相左，
所以要來學巴菲特！

Our stock selection methodology contrasts greatly with Mr. Buffett's approach. As retail investors, we tend to invest in smaller stocks, whereas Mr. Buffett primarily focuses on larger stocks. We determine a company's worth based on its market capitalization, while Mr. Buffett considers its net profit. We look at a company's predicted profits, while Mr. Buffett assesses its historical performance. We are drawn to turnarounds, while Mr. Buffett prioritizes consistent profits. This difference in stock picking philosophy contributes to our underperformance in the market. To improve our success in the stock market, it's important to learn from experienced investors such as Mr. Buffett.

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