另外有人拿M1b這個指標來看大盤,
中央銀行發行在外鈔票總額是M2,
M1b是M2減掉定存,
定存是被鎖起來的錢,
M1b是比較流通在外的錢。
這個指標常被引為股市潛在動能,
因流通在外的錢多了即容易流進股市。
Some people use M1b as an indicator to monitor the market. The total number of banknotes issued by the central bank is M2. M1b is calculated as M2 minus time deposits that are locked in circulation. M1b represents currency in circulation and is often used as a potential momentum indicator for the stock market. If there is too much currency in circulation, it may flow into the stock market.
用M1b來操作大盤績效會不會更好?
設定M1b年增率最低時買進,最高時賣出。
第一次買在5,600點,之後跌到3,411被斷頭。
6,888點賣出,後來漲到9,598,賣太早了會去撞牆。
Would it be better to use M1b to time the market?
Set a buy signal for M1b when it reaches the lowest annual growth rate and sell when it reaches the highest rate.
Suppose you bought in at an index of 5,600 points, but it dropped to 3,411 points, resulting in a loss of half of your investment and a margin call.
Later, you sold at 6,888 points, only to see the index rise to 9,598 points. You felt frustrated because you sold too early.
第二次買在7,400點,後來崩盤跌到3,955被斷頭兩次。
賣祖產繳了保證金卻在7,300就賣掉,
賠錢出場後眼睜睜看它漲到9,221。
You bought the second time at 7,400 points, but it eventually fell to 3,955 points, causing another margin call. You sold your ancestral property to meet the margin requirement and later sold the stock at 7,300, resulting in a loss. You had to watch helplessly as the stock rose to 9,221.
這兩次根據M1b操作大盤績效其差無比,
別再提這個指標了。
These two transactions have performed very poorly based on M1b. Please do not mention this indicator to me again.
也有人看景氣對策信號燈,
它是由9個變數組成,其中包含了股價指數,
拿它來跟指數對照,這犯了一個錯,
用自己來預測自己,是沒意義的事。
更慘的是,竟然不如GDP理論準!
Some people rely on economic monitoring indicators that include 9 variables, including the stock price index. However, using this indicator to compare with the index can lead to errors. It is redundant to use the same indicator to predict itself.
Even worse, it is not as accurate as GDP Theorem!
M1b和景氣對策信號燈都是沒用的指標。
同學,把不對的東西扔掉,才能找到對的方法。
Both M1b and economic monitoring indicators are useless. Discarding the wrong things can help you find the right path.
景氣對策訊號燈用自己來預測自己,無意義
Economic monitoring indicator is meaningless
mikeon 發表於 2012-1-26 21:22
法人喜歡用景氣對策訊號燈來預測股市,
這也不對,
因燈號裡的變數之一即包含股價,
用自己來預測自己,無意義。
Institutional investors often use economic monitoring indicators to predict the stock market. However, this approach is flawed as one of the variables in the indicator includes the stock price itself. There is no value in using a variable to predict itself.
燈號包括M1b、直接及間接金融、股價指數、工業生產指數、非農業就業人數、海關出口值、機電設備進口值、製造業銷售值、批發零售及餐飲業營業額指數等 9 項。
The indicator comprises nine variables, namely: M1b, direct and indirect finance, stock price index, industrial production index, non-agricultural employment, customs export value, import value of mechanical and electrical equipment, manufacturing sales value, and wholesale and retail and catering industry turnover index.
mikeon 發表於 2012-1-28 19:12
李建德君說股價在燈號裡的變數才占1/9而已
即便包含自己,影響沒那麼大
這顯然是連最基本的數學都沒學好
Jiende Li claimed that the stock price variable only accounts for 1/9 of the signal variables in the economic monitoring indicator. Therefore, even if it includes itself, its impact is minimal. However, his statement suggests a lack of understanding of basic mathematics.
單單看迴歸公式 y = bx + a
等式兩邊分別設成 y 跟 x ,
表示兩邊為不同變數,
這是小學生即懂的道理。
Simply examining the regression model y = bx + a, it is evident that both sides of the equation represent different variables. This is a basic fact that elementary school students can comprehend.
Suppose there is a variable x that is constant 10, x = 10
stock price x
5.8 10
6.1 10
6.5 10
7.4 10
Correlation coefficient between stock price and x = 0
現在拿股價和 x 來組成一個燈號
燈 = 股價 + x
Now take stock price and x to form a light signal
Light = stock price + x
stock price light(= stock price + x)
5.8 15.8
6.1 16.1
6.5 16.5
7.4 17.4
Correlation coefficient between stock price and x = 1
Stock price only accounts for 1/2 of light signal variables, but correlation coefficient depends entirely on it.
weyzhiro 發表於 2012-1-29 01:54
很好理解,不愧是麥可大,
講得很簡單就懂了 ! !
簡單是最高級的複雜阿 ! ! !
Michael, great job! Your explanation is easy to understand. Indeed, simplicity is the ultimate sophistication!
mikeon 發表於 2012-1-31 01:28
相關係數是指線性相關,x 跟 y 構成一條斜線
The correlation coefficient refers to the linear correlation between x and y, which is represented by a diagonal line.
若 x 跟 y 構成底下3種狀況相關係數為0
1. 橫線或垂直線
2. 散成一團
3. 弧線或曲線
If x and y exhibit any of the following three conditions, the correlation coefficient is 0:
The data points form horizontal or vertical lines.
The data points are scattered around with no discernible pattern.
The data points form an arc or curve.
y = x 能畫出一條斜線,
y = 100x 和 y = 0.01x 也能畫出一條斜線,相關係數都是1。
相關係數跟變數的數字或權數的大小無關。
The equation y = x represents a diagonal line in a scatter plot. Similarly, y = 100x and y = 0.01x also result in diagonal lines, and the correlation coefficient for both lines is 1. The correlation coefficient is independent of the scale and weightings of the variables.
mikeon 發表於 2012-2-1 18:53
奇怪的是,那些跟我辯論景氣對策訊號燈很有用的人,
怎麼從來不曾看過他們在追蹤或討論過這些指標。
為何不追蹤 ? 因跟股價的關係度不高。
平常沒在看的東西把它們綁在一起,怎麼突然變重要了呢 ?
無非跟股價指數合在一起的結果,
問題是這樣有意義嗎 ?
What's strange is that the people who argued with me about the usefulness of economic monitoring indicators never seem to track or discuss the individual variables that make up the indicator. The reason being that these variables do not have a strong correlation with stock prices. So why suddenly consider these variables important? It is only because they are combined with the stock index. But does this make sense?
mikeon 發表於 2012-2-2 08:04
Onion桑把 x 變數設成跟股價方向相反的例子來反駁,
說景氣燈號不受股價影響那麼大,
這才是錯誤的類比。
Reader Onion attempted to refute the argument by setting the x variable in the opposite direction to the stock price, and concluding that the economic monitoring indicator is not affected by stock prices. However, this is an inaccurate metaphor.
股價跟這 8 項變數不是負相關,而是相關係數不高,所以才不見有人在觀察它們。
平常沒在看的東西把它們綁在一起,
怎麼突然就變重要了呢 ?
因為跟股價合在一起的結果。
The stock prices and other eight variables are not negatively correlated, but their correlation coefficient is not strong enough to attract attention. Hence, these variables are not tracked closely by people. However, when combined with the stock index, these variables suddenly become important. But in reality, their significance is solely due to their association with the stock index.
Onion2012年2月2日 上午6:25
洪先生您好
感謝您針對我的疑問于以賜教,尤其我只是您的著作之一般讀者,並非是貴班的學生.
Hello Mr. On,
Thank you for your guidance on my question. Especially since I am just a general reader of your works, and not a student in your class.
我現在終於了解您的觀點了,就是:
直接及間接金融、工業生產指數,製造業銷售值...等等,它們個個都與大盤指數沒有很強的相關性;如果把它們共同組織成某個指標I,這個I當然與股市也沒有很深的連動性。此時如果把大盤指數再加進它們當中又組成一個新的指標J之後,卻忽然發現這個J與股市相關性很強,那麼我們就可以反推:必然是大盤指數在主導這一新的指標。所以想用這個指標J來預測大盤是沒有意義的。
Now I finally understand your point of view, which is that direct and indirect finance, industrial production index, manufacturing sales value, etc., each of them do not have a strong correlation with the stock market index. If these variables are combined to form a certain indicator I, this I naturally does not have a deep connection with the stock market either. However, if the stock market index is added to these variables to form a new indicator J, suddenly it is found that this J has a strong correlation with the stock market. Therefore, we can deduce that the stock market index is leading this new indicator. Therefore, it is meaningless to use this indicator J to predict the stock market.
如果我以上的領會是正確的,那麼我現在也完全贊同您的觀點,以後也不會再去注意這個景氣燈號了。事實上我還是相當認同您的GDP理論,也準備使用它來規避系統性風險。先前有論者以為GDP理論也有失準的時候而加以批評,我卻主張只要在大多數情況下它都可以準確,就很有價值。
If my understanding above is correct, then I fully agree with your point of view now. In fact, I also quite agree with your GDP theory, and am prepared to use it to avoid systematic risks. Some people have criticized the GDP theory for its occasional deviation, but I think that as long as it is accurate in most cases, it is still very valuable.
最後再次向您致謝,先前對您的觀點所提出的質疑若有冒犯之處,敬請原諒。
即頌時祉
Onion
Finally, I want to thank you again. If there was any offense in my previous questioning of your views, please forgive me.
Best regards,
Onion