講稿與盈再表免費下載

巴菲特班洪瑞泰 (Michael On) » 討論區1 » 講稿與盈再表免費下載

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#76

發表於 2018-1-1 16:41 資料主頁文集私人訊息

同學不要按盈再表出來一看，
宏達電「合格」，預期報酬率26%，
就很興奮跳下去買。
合格出現之後底下來有紅色字提醒須再檢定公司會不會變。
我發現特地用紅色字標出的提示同學特別不會看！
宏達電和宸鴻這兩家公司的產品會變，不是我們會想買的公司。

Instead of just relying on the OK signal in On's table indicating a 26% expected return rate for HTC, it is important to consider the durability of the company before making a purchase decision. Despite the red reminder at the bottom of the table, it has been observed that students tend to ignore it. Given that the products of HTC and TPK Holding (3673.TW) are subject to change, these companies are not among our preferred choices.

搞不清楚公司產品，可以到官網去看，
盈再表往右邊拉可以找到公司的網址，
點進去可進入公司的官網，
上面有產品介紹，有照片，一看就了解公司在做什麼。
新日興做樞紐的，樞紐是什麼東西？
看照片來就清楚了。

If you are unfamiliar with a company's products, you can visit its official website for information. To access the website, simply drag the company name to the right of On's table. Once you arrive at the website, you can view product information, photos, and gain an understanding of the company's operations. For example, Shinzushing (3376.TW) manufactures notebook computer hinges. If you are unsure what a hinge is, you can simply view a photo on the website to get a clear idea.

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#77

發表於 2018-1-1 16:46 資料主頁文集私人訊息

2. 產業地位不會變 (A咖、龍頭股)
巴菲特說「消費者特許權」，
一般的特許權是政府給的，像石油、菸酒公賣、電信、高鐵。
巴菲特說最好的特許權是消費者給的，
即市占率高的公司，A咖或龍頭股。

2. Unshakable industry leader
Buffett referred to "consumer franchise" which can be granted by the government, such as in the sale of oil, tobacco, and alcohol, as well as in telecommunications and high-speed rail. However, the best franchise rights are given by consumers, which means a company with a higher market share.

龍頭股的獲利和股價表現都比同業優秀，而且可以好很久。
底下這些公司就最好證明：
統一、大統益、卜蜂、台塑、中鋼、豐興、正新、台積電、
台達電、中華電、大立光、和泰車、中保、巨大、統一超

Companies that demonstrate strong profitability and share price performance are often considered industry leaders that can maintain their position over the long term. The following companies serve as excellent examples:
Uni-President (1216.TW), TTET Union, Charoen Pokphand Taiwan (1215.TW), Formosa Plastics, China Steel, Fenghsin (2015.TW), Cheng Shin Rubber (2105.TW), TSMC, Delta Electronics, Chunghwa Telecom (2412.TW), Largan Precision, Hotai Motor (2207.TW), Taiwan Secom (9917.TW), Giant (9921.TW), President Chain Store

這些公司我們何時知道它們很好，從我們小時候就知道了，
直到現在都還很好，可以好很久。

When did we realize that these companies were good? We've known it since we were kids. And even now, they continue to perform well and are expected to last for a long time.

名牌也屬龍頭股，賣得越貴大家越搶著買的就是名牌。
逛百貨公司看到一支Burberry雨傘標價7,000元，
當場就很恭敬地把它放下來不敢打開，
心想這輩子用的雨傘全部加起來也不會超過7,000元。
轉身看它另外一個專櫃賣風衣標價7萬元，
突然覺得那把雨傘還蠻便宜的。
幾年後同學糾正我「麥可，你好久沒有去逛百貨公司了？」
才想起來，7,000元是2002年的價格。
同學說現在一把2萬元，這還是2013年的價格。

Well-known brands are often industry leaders, and their products are priced higher because consumers are willing to pay a premium for them. I once saw a Burberry umbrella in a department store priced at NT$7,000 and decided not to purchase it because it was too expensive. I thought to myself that I have never spent more than NT$7,000 on an umbrella in my entire life. However, when I looked at the prices of other items, such as long trench coats priced at NT$70,000, I began to think that the umbrella was actually quite cheap. Years later, one of my students corrected me and informed me that a Burberry umbrella now costs around NT$20,000, which is still a 2013 price.

逛百貨公司深受刺激，想買不起名牌，當股東總可以吧！
就去買Coach的股票，最慘時賠了40%，
賠的錢都可以買它3個包包了，
現在一想，當股東最貴，早知當時應該買包包。
Coach因獲利不佳股價大跌，自己的公司要自己救，
我又花了1萬元買它一個皮夾。越套越深！

Shopping in a department store can be painful for me, especially when I can't afford a famous brand. So, I decided to become a shareholder at least. I invested in Coach's stock, but unfortunately, I lost 40% of my investment at the worst. That could have bought me three wallets. Now, I realize that being a shareholder can be more expensive than buying a wallet. Due to Coach's poor profits, their stock price plummeted, and I had to save myself. But even as I was trying to cut my losses, I ended up buying another wallet for NT$10,000, and now I feel even more stuck.

公司產品的市場佔有率去哪裡查？
盈再表底下介紹這一格點進去，
跑到MoneyDJ網頁，有公司介紹的文章，
點入，文中會提到產品市占率。

Where can you check the market share of a company's products?
You can click on the "Introduction" button under Table 1 on On's website. This will take you to the MoneyDJ webpage, where there are articles about the company. By clicking on one of these articles, you can find information on the market share of the company's products.

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#78

發表於 2018-1-1 16:50 資料主頁文集私人訊息

現在較為偷懶少點進去看，反正買龍頭股就對了，
台塑的市場佔有率多高？
反正就是很高。

Nowadays, I am lazier and do not bother clicking. Nevertheless, buying industry leaders is always a good strategy. What is the market share of Formosa Plastics? It is undoubtedly very high.

巴菲特提到，若市佔率高到獨佔的地位，
即便出現連白癡都能經營的公司其實是最好的公司。
中鋼就是，台灣唯一煉鋼廠，
這幾年換很多任董事長，產業地位仍然不變。

Mr. Buffett once stated that if a company has a high enough market share to dominate, it can be run by an idiot and still be the best company. China Steel is the only steelmaking plant in Taiwan, and despite multiple changes in leadership over the past few years, its position as an industry leader remains unchallenged.

台北悠遊卡公司也是，
幾年前找了一個連白癡去當董事長，
...我是在稱讚這家公司。
拿悠遊卡去高雄的超商可以刷，
拿高雄的捷運卡來台北最近能夠刷。
悠遊卡具獨占地位，
只是之前不曉得公司這麼好，
看到他居然可以去當董事長，才發現原來這麼好啊！

The Taipei EasyCard company is also one, a few years ago they hired someone even considered foolish as their chairman... I am praising this company. You can use the EasyCard to pay at convenience stores in Kaohsiung, and recently, you can use the Kaohsiung MRT card to pay in Taipei. The EasyCard has a monopoly position, but I didn't know the company was this good before. It wasn't until I saw that someone considered foolish could become their chairman that I realized how great they are!

相反的，經營團隊離開會讓人擔心的公司就可能會變。
郭台銘在鴻海的地位非常關鍵，
鴻海是一家好公司，可是就巴菲特的角度來看來，不是最好的公司。

On the contrary, if the management team leaves the company, investors become concerned as the company may undergo changes. Terry Guo's position in Hon Hai is crucial. While Hon Hai is a good company, it may not be the best company from Mr. Buffett's perspective.

工具機的亞崴，好幾年前總經理離職，帶了一票人離開，
當時大家都擔心會回過頭來競爭，
亞崴可能是一家好公司，但非最好公司。
2008年有個同學跟我說，
他和外圍的資金去買亞崴，買到可以當董監事，
打電話去公司問問題時跟他這樣嗆聲，
發言人都會把公司的狀況一五一十來跟他報告。
同學又跟工具機上下游業者搞好關係，
自認為對整個工具機產業掌握度非常高。
2008年世界經濟陷入危機，亞崴也受到影響獲利衰退，
股價跌到20幾元，
這位同學非常緊張，連續打了2通電話問我對亞崴的看法？
我完全沒研究，只好回他
「你問我，我要問誰？You ask me, me ask who？」
同學後來跟我說，當亞崴股價跌到最低20元的時候，
他就把整個股票賣光光，
賣完之後來股價就漲上來。

everal years ago, the general manager of AWEA Mechantronic (1530.TW), a machine tool manufacturer, left the company with a group of people.
At the time, there were concerns that they would come back to compete with the company. Although AWEA may be a good company, it is not the best company. In 2008, a student told me that he and his friends had purchased enough AWEA stocks to become directors and supervisors.
When he called the company to ask questions, he would confront the spokesperson with a sharp tone, who would then report the company's situation in detail to him.The student also established good relationships with industry participants both upstream and downstream of the machine tool industry and believed that he had a high level of understanding of the entire industry. During the 2008 global economic crisis, AWEA's profitability declined, and its stock price dropped to around NT$20. The student was very nervous and called me twice to ask for my opinion on AWEA. Since I had no expertise in this area, I replied, "You ask me, me ask who?", using a Taiwanese English expression. Later, the student informed me that he sold all of his AWEA shares when the stock price fell to its lowest point of NT$20. After he sold his shares, the stock price went up.

同時期中鋼的表現更差，
亞崴只是獲利衰退，中鋼則單季虧損，
中鋼股價跌到23元時我和巴班同學都跳進去買中鋼買得很高興，
請問為何這麼大的差別呢？
因為一個是A咖，一個是B咖，
中鋼是A咖，亞崴是B咖。

During the same period, China Steel's performance was poor, with a 25% loss, while AWEA's profits were only declining. When China Steel's stock price fell to NT$23, my students and I were delighted to buy China Steel shares. The reason for the big difference in performance is that China Steel is a first-tier company, while AWEA is a second-tier company.

同樣獲利衰退，中鋼是什麼原因呢？
景氣！
亞崴又是什麼問題呢？
可能是一些不為人所知的個別因素。
建議儘量買A咖，
因B咖一旦出事想破頭都不知道是什麼原因，
股票會抱不下去。

Why did China Steel suffer the same profit decline? Business recession! On the other hand, it's unclear what went wrong with AWEA, possibly due to unknown individual factors. That's why I suggest investing in first-tier companies as much as possible. When a second-tier company encounters a problem, even if you are at a loss for ideas and don't know why, it's best not to hold onto that stock for a long time.

之前有人不喜歡買A咖，以為股性牛皮，
事實證明不然，台積電、大立光這幾年就是大飆股。
只要高ROE，股價便宜，就一定會漲。

In the past, some investors avoided buying industry leaders because they believed their stock prices were stagnant. However, recent years have proven otherwise, as companies like TSMC and Largan have experienced significant growth. As long as a company's ROE is high and its stock price is undervalued, it is likely to rise.

研究員當了近30年，我最後的心得：
「越不用花時間研究就知道是好公司的，將來也不會出事！」
這意思是說，當研究員是一件沒有意義的事。

Based on my 30 years of experience as an analyst, I have come to the realization that sometimes it only takes a brief study to recognize a good company with a promising future. This indicates that the role of an analyst may be overrated.

買股票還是不免發生買的當時覺很好，
可是一年半載之後才發現變得越來越差，
這時你總是會問，它是一時月考考差還是永久變壞，
兩者如何區別？
什麼是月考考差？指景氣，
什麼是永久變壞？產品或產業地位改變。

When buying stocks, it is inevitable that we will feel good about it at the time, but after a year and a half, we may find that the company is getting worse. At this point, we always ask whether the decline is temporary or permanent. What is the difference between the two?
Temporary decline refers to changes in the business cycle, while permanent deterioration refers to changes in the product or industry position.

中鋼這幾年獲利慘澹，因景氣不佳，
不只中鋼，中國寶鋼、韓國浦項、美國Nucor
這4家煉鋼廠近幾年ROE都只有5％，
是全球性鋼鐵業景氣的問題。

In recent years, China Steel's earnings have been poor due to the economic downturn. Other companies in the steel industry such as Baosteel of China (600019.CN), Pohang Iron & Steel of South Korea (005490.KR), and Nucor (NUE) of the US have also experienced low ROE of only 5%. This downturn is reflective of a global slump in the steel industry.

宏達電獲利變赤字連連是什麼原因？
產業地位改變，
它最早是智慧手機第3大製造商，
現在淪落成第23大製造商。

What caused HTC to go from making profits to incurring losses?
There has been a shift in the industry landscape. Previously, HTC held the position of the third largest smartphone manufacturer, but now it has fallen to the 23rd spot.

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#79

發表於 2018-1-1 16:58 資料主頁文集私人訊息

3. 想3秒鐘就了解的公司
巴菲特說「簡單的企業」，
何謂「簡單」？
想3秒鐘就懂。

3. Easy to understand in 3 seconds
What did Mr. Buffett mean by "simple business"?
Easy to explain in 3 seconds.

巴菲特又說「要按每個人的能力範圍去選股」，
什麼是能力範圍呢？
具體量化不就是想3秒鐘嗎，
會拿出來問的就表示超出理解範圍。

What did Buffett mean by "choose stocks according to everyone's scope of competence"? Simply put, it means investing in companies that you understand well. If you have questions about a company, it may be outside your area of competence.

想3秒鐘就好，別想太久，不要想三天三夜喔。
普安做磁碟陣列控制器，這是什麼東西？
1 秒鐘、2秒鐘、3秒鐘，
想不出來就不要理它了，這家公司跟你無關了。

Just think about it for 3 seconds, don't overthink it, don't spend three days and three nights on it.
What is Infortrend (2495.TW) doing? They manufacture disk array controllers.
One second, two seconds, three seconds...
If you can't figure it out, just ignore it. This company may not be relevant to you.

宏正做KVM切換器，這是什麼？
1 秒鐘、2秒鐘、3秒鐘，想不出來就放棄。

ATEN International (6277.TW) manufactures KVM switches, which stands for Keyboard, Video, Mouse switch.
What does this mean? Take one second, two seconds, three seconds... If you don't know, it's okay to give up.

底下這些都是簡單的企業：
台塑？做塑膠的，
中鋼？鋼鐵，
統一超？超商，
巨大？腳踏車。
這一家最簡單，
台積電？晶圓代工。
馬上能夠講得出口的就是簡單的企業，就這樣判斷！

Here are some examples of straightforward businesses:
Formosa Plastics - manufacturing plastics
China Steel - producing steel
Presidential Chain - operating supermarkets
Giant - manufacturing bicycles
And here's the simplest one:
TSMC - providing IC foundry services.
You can immediately tell what each company does. So, use this approach to evaluate companies!

同學寫伊媚兒問我某支股票能否好很久？
她說想了好久！
建議她買簡單的企業，
還解釋什麼叫簡單？就是想3秒鐘。
會拿出來問的就不是簡單易懂的公司。

A student wrote me an email asking whether a certain stock is durable ?
She said she had been thinking about it for a long time.
I suggested that she invest in a simple company and explained what I meant by simple - a company that can be understood in three seconds.
If you have to ask about a company, then it may not be simple enough to understand easily.

她說「喔～醬子還是很難判斷！」
很難判斷就是答案了！
同學都已經把答案講出來了自己來還不知道。
很難判斷就不簡單啊。

She said, "Oh, it's still difficult to judge!"
When it's difficult to judge, that is the answer!
If the student have already explained the answer and she still doesn't know, then it's not a simple matter.

初學者問，他所知不多那豈不只能買那些少數的龍頭股？
若只懂得買那些少數的龍頭股反而比較安全，
而且股價也很會漲，這幾年台積電、大立光就是大飇股。
等到學得越多之後，能力範圍自然就廣了。

A beginner asks, if they don't know much, should they only buy a few leading stocks?
It may be safer to only buy those few leading stocks that they are familiar with, and these stocks may also have higher potential for growth. In recent years, TSMC and Largan have been very successful stocks.
As the beginner's knowledge and abilities grow, they can start to expand their investment options.

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#80

發表於 2018-1-1 17:01 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 12/21：多種果樹
Lecture 12/21 Diversification

如何避免公司變壞的風險？
第一買不會變的公司，
第二多種果樹，
建議持股同等金額平均分散，
例如持股100支，即每檔股票占總投資金額1%，
單一持股買最多買2份，即2%。
若第一份買進之後賠了錢，就別急著攤第二份，
因為那等於獎勵股價表現不好的壞學生，一錯再錯。
寧可等解套了再來加碼第二份。

2份買滿之後就不要再攤了。
把最大風險控制在2份，
不管股價跌到多便宜都不要再攤。
我買的淡水河谷(VALE)最慘時賠了90%，
若一直攤下去，現在還笑得出來嗎？

How to Avoid the Risk of Company Deterioration:
Firstly, invest in a durable company.
Secondly, diversify your investments.
It is recommended to evenly distribute your investment amount among your stocks. For example, if you have 100 stocks, each stock should represent 1% of your total investment. You can purchase a maximum of two shares of a single stock, which is 2%. If the first purchase results in a loss, don't rush to purchase more, as it would reward poor stock performance, perpetuating a cycle of mistakes. It's better to wait until you've exited the losing position before considering additional purchases.

Once you have purchased two shares of a stock, refrain from buying more. It is crucial to control your risk by limiting it to 2% of your investment, regardless of how low the stock price falls. Averaging down should be avoided. For instance, at its worst, my investment in VALE fell by 90%. If I had averaged down, would I still find it humorous now?

同學說他比較沒有錢，沒辦法分散？
沒關係，一支一支慢慢種，
存夠錢了再去買第二支。
每個人都是從沒有錢變成有錢的，這是人生的過程，
我當完兵剛出社會存款僅6萬元，也買股票買得很高興。
年輕朋友應該慶幸這麼早就遇見巴菲特，
我這輩子最大的遺憾是為何不能在國中
就認識巴菲特！

Students may feel like they don't have enough money to diversify their investments, but it's okay to slowly invest in stocks one by one. Save up enough money to purchase another stock and gradually build a diversified portfolio. Everyone goes through the process of transitioning from having no money to accumulating wealth. For example, after serving in the military, I only had NT$60,000 to start investing in stocks. Today's young people are fortunate to have learned about Buffett's investment philosophy at an early age. My biggest regret in life is not having learned about Buffett when I was in junior high school.

同學問買股票要不要設停損？
我一直不認為設停損是好的方法，
因為很容易被巴來巴去，
設10%停損，股票常常跌到12%停損之後反彈。
在「魔法書」曾寫到
1992年跟一位歐巴桑推薦買聯電20元，
漲到30元碰到歐巴桑恭喜她，
她卻苦笑說賠錢，
我不解「怎麼會賠錢呢？不相信我嗎？」
她說相信，相信我3次。
20元推薦她想了一下漲上去才追，
後來跌破月線就賣掉，再漲上去再追，
跌破月線又賣掉，連續買了3次賠錢出場。
這是根據月均線操作的缺點。
後來聯電最高漲到175元，還原股價高達300元。

The students asked if they should set a cut-loss point. I don't believe that setting a cut-loss point is a good strategy, as it can lead to losses through speculative trading. For instance, if we set a cut-loss point of 10%, but the stock often rebounds at 12%, we would miss out on potential gains. I wrote in my "Magic Book" about a recommendation I made to a senior lady to buy UMC (2303.TW) at NT$20 in 1992. I congratulated her when the stock price rose to NT$30. However, she was unhappy and said that she was losing money. I was puzzled and asked her how she could be losing money since she trusted and believed in me when I recommended the stock to her at NT$20. She explained that she had bought the stock, but then sold it when it broke the monthly moving average, only to buy it back three times at higher prices and ultimately losing money. This is an example of the disadvantage of monthly moving average trading. UMC later rose to a maximum of NT$175, and the adjusted stock price was as high as NT$300.

建議單一持股最多買2份，
已經隱含了設停損的意思，
即這支股票最多賠2份的錢。

It is recommended to purchase a maximum of two shares of a single holding. The implication of setting a cut-loss point is that we are willing to lose up to two shares of the stock.

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#81

發表於 2018-1-1 17:06 資料主頁文集私人訊息

如果持股夠分散就不必停損，
此話一出舉座皆驚，以為我在打狂語，
不然，其實這是很簡單的數學道理而已。
股票跌的話最多賠 1 倍，
漲則可賺好幾倍，
用賺好幾倍來彌補賠 1 倍的，絕對綽綽有餘。

If your investment portfolio is well-diversified, you may not need to use stop-loss measures. While this may be surprising to some, it is based on a simple mathematical principle. If a stock falls, you may only lose a small portion of your portfolio, but if it rises, you have the potential to earn several times your initial investment. The gains from earning several times can outweigh the losses from any small dips in the portfolio.

問題出在哪裡？
出在大部份人沒有漲好幾倍的股票，
因都在跑來跑去。
請多給一點時間跟空間讓持股可以漲好幾倍。
用巴菲特方法要賺好幾倍是很容易的事，
在講稿5/21即秀過一張漲倍圖，漲倍股比比皆是。

Where is the problem?
The problem lies in the fact that most people don't have stocks that have multiplied in value several times, as they are all engaged in speculative trading. You need to give your holdings more time and space to rise several times in value.
Using the Buffett method, it's easy to earn several times your initial investment.
In Lecture 5/21, I presented a chart showing my tenbaggers, or stocks that have increased in value tenfold.

請不要漲20%先賣一趟，套牢了就不賣，
這是很多人的操作策略，
如此操作預期報酬率的期望值是負的，
期望值即平均數，
+20%和-100%平均為負數，
表示玩到最後注定賠錢出場。

It is not advisable to sell stocks solely based on a 20% gain and hesitate to sell when experiencing losses. This investment strategy is used by many investors, but it ultimately results in a negative expected return rate. Expected value mean an average, the expected return rate is calculated as the average of a 20% gain and a 100% loss. Therefore, following this approach will likely lead to losses.

有人買股票喜歡重押一支，又押錯，
來跟我哭訴問我怎麼辦？
被套牢了，我的建議只有一個，
就是請先賣一半，
這樣至少會對一半，才有翻身的機會。

Some investors prefer to invest in a single stock, but they often choose the wrong one. They come to me in distress, asking what they should do.
If you find yourself in this situation, my suggestion is to sell half of your shares. This way, you can at least recoup some of your investment.

如此不管漲跌我都沒有責任，
後來發現，不對，不管漲跌我都有事，
股票繼續跌同學會說為什麼只叫他賣一半，
股票漲了則怪我為何要叫他賣一半！
2015年漲到 1 萬點建議大家減碼，
跌到7,200同學拿剩下的持股來質問我
為何持股績效那麼差？
當然差，證明 1 萬點叫大家賣是對的啊。

So, I am not responsible for any rise or fall. Later, I realized that it's not true, I have a responsibility regardless of whether the stock goes up or down. If the stock continues to fall, the student will complain about why I only advised them to sell half. If the stock rises, they will blame me for telling them to sell half! In 2015, when the market rose to 10,000 points, I recommended everyone to reduce their holdings. Later, when the market fell to 7,200, a student questioned me about why the performance of the remaining stocks was so poor. "Of course, it's poor, which proves that advising everyone to sell at 10,000 points was the right decision!

我反對集中持股，因任何人都會買錯股票，
連股神巴菲特也不例外，
祂不是偶爾買錯股票而是常常。
2013年買能源未來控股公司的公司債後來變成壁紙，
賠了262億元台幣(8.37億美元)。
2008年投資愛爾蘭的2家銀行也倒閉。
若老巴把全部資產押在這3家公司，我的巴菲特班就要改名了。

I discourage making concentrated bets because even Warren Buffett is not immune to buying the wrong stock. In fact, he has done so on several occasions. For example, in 2013, he invested in corporate bonds of Energy Future Holdings, which ultimately became worthless and resulted in a loss of NT$26.2 billion (US$837 million). Additionally, two Irish banks that he invested in went bankrupt in 2008. If Mr. Buffett had put all his assets into these three companies, I would have to rename my Buffett class.

有人說巴菲特不是主張持股要集中嗎？
你的持股到底應該集中還是分散，
不是看巴菲特怎麼說，而是要問自己，
股票被套牢了老巴不會來救你。

Some people claim that Mr. Buffett advocates concentrated investing. However, whether you choose to concentrate or diversify your assets is not a decision to be based solely on what Buffett has said. Ultimately, it is up to you to make this decision and take responsibility for it. Remember that if you find yourself stuck in a particular stock, Mr. Buffett will not be there to bail you out.

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118.169.162.107

#82

發表於 2018-1-1 17:14 資料主頁文集私人訊息

在決定要集中或分散持股之前
必須先弄清楚一個關鍵：買錯股機率多高？
買了之後賠20%機率多高？
根據我自己和同學的經驗，買錯股機率大概就是3成。

Before deciding whether to concentrate or diversify holdings, it's crucial to first determine one key factor: the probability of making incorrect stock purchases. What is the likelihood of experiencing a 20% loss after making a purchase? Based on my own experience and that of my students, the likelihood of making an incorrect stock purchase is approximately 30%.

買錯股所有人檢討的結論一定是加強研究，
多拜訪公司，深入挖掘財報，廣泛閱讀財經媒體，
再佐以技術分析等等。
一個殘酷的事實擺在眼前卻是
這3成買錯股機率無法大幅降低，
連投資大神也一樣，
巴菲特常常買錯股，
孟格生平最後一檔持股即栽在阿里巴巴上。

The conclusion drawn from the review of everyone who has made incorrect stock purchases is always to intensify research. This involves visiting companies more frequently, delving deeper into financial statements, extensively reading financial media, and supplementing with technical analysis, among other strategies.

A harsh reality stares us in the face: the probability of making incorrect stock purchases, at 30%, cannot be significantly reduced. Even investment gurus face the same challenge. Warren Buffett frequently makes incorrect stock purchases, and Charlie Munger's final stock investment was mistakenly placed in BABA.

3成買錯機率若集中押注在少數幾支，績效容易大好大壞，
押對了就大好，錯了即大壞，最終以大壞收場，
只要最後一次押錯就前功盡棄，注定破產。

When this 30% probability of making incorrect purchases is concentrated in a few stocks, performance can swing dramatically. Making the right choices leads to significant gains, while incorrect decisions result in substantial losses, ultimately leading to adverse outcomes. Just one misstep can undo all prior successes, potentially leading to bankruptcy.

如何降低大好大壞的偏差？
統計學的區間估計提供解決的辦法。
選股就是統計學的抽樣，
選錯股機率3成，即勝率(p) 70%
可是「抽樣得到的結果不會每次剛好70%，
而是有偏差，很可能落在正負2個標準差之內。」

How to reduce biases in stock selection?
Interval estimation in statistics provides a solution. Stock selection is akin to statistical sampling. If the probability of picking the wrong stock is 30%, indicating a success rate (p) of 70%, "the results obtained from sampling won't always precisely match this 70%. Instead, there will be biases, often falling within plus or minus two standard deviations."

換成統計術語為：
信心水準95%之信賴區間為正負2個標準差s
[p - 2s, p + 2s] = [70% - 2s, 70% + 2s]
信心水準95%即白話文的「很可能」

The above can be translated into statistical terminology as follows:
The confidence interval at a 95% confidence level is ±2 standard deviations (s).
[p - 2s, p + 2s] = [70% - 2s, 70% + 2s]
A 95% confidence level is colloquially referred to as "highly likely."

標準差指資料之間的平均距離
＝[px(1-p)/n]^0.5 = [70%x30%/n]^0.5
樣本數n

The standard deviation refers to the average distance between data points.
= [px(1-p)/n]^0.5 = [70%x30%/n]^0.5
Sample size n

n=1,  [0, 100%]
n=5,  [29%, 100%]
n=10,  [41%, 98%]
n=30,  [53%, 87%]
n=50,  [57%, 83%]
n=100, [61%, 79%]
n=200, [64%, 76%]
n=300, [65%, 75%]
n=500, [66%, 74%]
n=1,000, [67%, 73%]

n=1,  [0, 100%]，單押1支勝率很可能為0或100%
n=5,  [29%, 100%]，僅押5支勝率很可能落於29%到100%之間
以上均顯示績效大好大壞

When n=1, [0, 100%], there is a high likelihood that the winning rate for a single bet could be either 0% or 100%.
When n=5, [29%, 100%], with only five bets, the winning rate could likely range from 29% to 100%.
Both scenarios demonstrate significant variability in performance, ranging from very poor to very good.

n=100, [61%, 79%]，買到100支勝率很可能落於61%到79%之間，
勝率至少61%算是可接受水準，這是我建議至少買100支持股的原因

When n=100, [61%, 79%], buying 100 stocks could likely result in a winning rate falling between 61% and 79%.
A winning rate of at least 61% is considered acceptable, which is why I recommend purchasing at least 100 stocks.

上述至少買100檔持股的統計證明相當重要，
分散或集中持股不再是見仁見智沒有結論的議題，
而是必須遵守的準則。
也給足大家信心，
持股100支以上績效大壞的可能性低，
不必每天緊張兮兮關注股市，
有更多時間去吃喝玩樂

The above statistical evidence underscores the significance of holding a minimum of 100 stocks in your portfolio. Whether to diversify or concentrate one's holdings is no longer a debatable issue, but a guideline that must be followed. This also gives everyone confidence that the likelihood of poor performance with holding more than 100 stocks is low. There is no need to be nervous and pay close attention to the stock market every day, instead, we can spend more time enjoying life.

買超過100檔持股不用擔心績效會不好，
因為我們並非亂槍打鳥，
而是從預期年報酬率大於15%的入圍名單中選股。
100支以上持股的績效會穩定趨向15%年報酬率。

Buying over 100 stocks, there's no need to worry about poor performance because we're not shooting blindly. Instead, we choose stocks from a list of candidates with expected annual returns greater than 15%. A portfolio holding over 100 stocks will tend to stabilize towards a 15% annual return rate.

持股夠分散才可能長期投資，
即便是好公司，股價也可能長時間不漲，
台積電在大漲到2022年688元之前
2003-2011年長達9年在40-80元區間盤整，
單押一檔台積電的投資人十分難熬，不容易抱得住。

Diversified holdings are crucial for long-term investment success. Even well-performing companies can experience extended periods of stagnant stock prices. For instance, TSMC's stock price fluctuated between 40 and 80 TWD from 2003 to 2011, remaining in this range for nearly nine years before it soared to 688 TWD in 2022. Investors who exclusively held TSMC shares found this period particularly challenging to endure and difficult to maintain their investment.

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#83

發表於 2018-1-1 17:17 資料主頁文集私人訊息

我美股賠最慘的淡水河谷曾跌了90%，
它是巴西的鐵礦砂廠，世界最大。
巴西股跟我八字不合，2013年就買了VALE，
當時美國景氣正要復甦，QE尚未退場，
此時買原料股景氣循環股最適當了，買在起漲點。
不料後來美國景氣復甦了，其它國家卻無起色，
這種復甦不同調的現象過去罕見，
鐵礦砂價格甚至創歷史新低，
加上巴西幣貶值5成，
VALE股價跌了90%。

I suffered the biggest loss in VALE, which dropped by 90%. VALE is an iron ore company in Brazil and is the world's largest. Brazilian stocks do not suit me, but I bought VALE in 2013. At that time, the US economy was on the verge of recovery, and the Fed had stopped quantitative easing. Therefore, it was the best time to buy raw material stocks for cyclical growth. Unexpectedly, while the US economy later recovered, other countries did not improve. This kind of uneven recovery was rare in the past, and the price of iron ore even hit a record low. Furthermore, with the Brazilian currency depreciating by 50%, VALE's shares dropped by 90%.

仔細反省，VALE為景氣循環股，
股價波動太激烈令人承受不起，
改買公用事業股就穩當了。
同學力薦AESAY，巴西水利發電廠，
水利發電不受燃料價格影響。
買了之後卻遇百年大乾旱，股價跌了50%。
想說忍耐一下老天總是會下雨，
果然下雨了，股價反彈在望，
2016年2月股價最低時公司卻宣布下市，
強制把股票賣在最低點。
玩家還想繼續玩，莊家卻把籌碼收走了。

After careful consideration, I realized that VALE is a highly cyclical stock, with a stock price that fluctuates greatly. In contrast, it is safer to invest in public utility stocks. One student strongly recommended AES Tiete SA (AESAY), a hydroelectric power plant in Brazil, which is not affected by fuel prices. However, after I bought it, the company experienced a hundred-year drought, causing its stock price to fall by 50%. But eventually, it rained and the stock price rebounded. Unfortunately, in February 2016, when the stock price was at its lowest, the company announced its delisting, forcing me to sell the stock at the lowest price. It's like a player wanting to continue playing, but the dealer takes away their chips.

2016年VALE強勁強彈，股價漲了4倍，
是我手中持股有史以來一年內漲最多的，
而我仍賠了50%，
預計總共要反彈9倍，才會解套，
淡水河谷成了我的永恆持股。

In 2016, VALE had a strong rebound, and its stock price rose 4 times. It was the highest increase in my holdings within a year in history, yet I still lost 50%. It is estimated that it will require a total of 9 rebounds to mitigate my loss. VALE has become my eternal holding.

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#84

發表於 2018-1-1 17:21 資料主頁文集私人訊息

我的持股完整公告在討論區和部落格，
無任何保留，歡迎查閱。
我是台灣唯一敢把持股完整且長期公開的人，
不像一些人好的時候公開，不好時則收起來。

The complete list of my holdings can be found in the discussion forum and blog. I welcome you to review it without any reservations and feel free to consult with me if you have any questions. I am the only person in Taiwan who has dared to publicly disclose my complete list of holdings permanently. This is unlike some individuals who only disclose their holdings when their performance is good, and then keep it private when their performance is bad.

我的持股有任何買賣變動會立即公佈，
不僅事後公告，更喜歡預告，
若白天已決定要買什麼股票，
會把單子下好貼在討論區。
預告有個好處，必惹來同學的一陣批評，
還可以再思考一下。

I will make immediate announcements regarding any changes to my holdings. This will not only include an announcement after a transaction, but also a preview beforehand. If I decide which stocks to purchase on a given day, I will post my order in the discussion forum. This kind of notification is advantageous because it can lead to constructive criticism from readers, which will cause me to reconsider my decisions. Therefore, I am committed to being transparent about my stock holdings and welcome feedback from my peers.

我的持股將如同楚門世界一樣，接受嚴格監督，
讓大家見證如何從一片苗圃長成一座大森林。
為何公開持股？
因2012年開戶時敲鑼打鼓邀喝同學一起前進美股，
這個戶頭是在大家見證和祝福下開的，
大家在同一條起跑線出發，最公平。

My stock holdings will be strictly monitored, much like the Truman World program, to demonstrate how a small seedling can grow into a large forest. As for why I have decided to make my holdings public, it is because when I opened my account in 2012, I invited my students to invest with me in the US stock market. This account was opened with everyone's endorsement and blessings, and we all started from the same starting line, making it the most fair way to invest.

我美股打算100支，1 支買 1 萬美元，
為何到美股想分散成100支？
因2012年剛開戶時美股已漲高，猶豫是否進場？
按盈再表發現便宜的好公司仍然很多，即決定買進。
到美股如進寶山一樣，全世界最好的公司都在那裡，
都很想買，為控制購買慾就分散成100支，
這個決定的確達到控制持股比例的效果。

I am planning to purchase 100 U.S. stocks, with an allocation of $10,000 for each stock. Why have I decided to diversify my investment into 100 different stocks? When I opened my account in 2012, the U.S. stock market was already on the rise, making me hesitant to enter the market. However, upon reviewing On's table, I found that there were still many undervalued companies with good potential, prompting me to buy. Investing in the U.S. stock market is like discovering a treasure mountain full of the world's best companies. It's tempting to want to invest in all of them, but in order to control my purchasing desires and maintain a balanced portfolio, I have chosen to diversify my investment into 100 different stocks. This decision has effectively helped me to control my shareholding ratios.

我很慶幸進美股之初一再高喊要多種果樹，
否則2015年金磚四國股市大崩盤，
股價腰斬再腰斬者比比皆是，
同學必定見獵心喜一攤再攤，將深陷泥沼。

Fortunately, when I entered the US stock market, I repeatedly emphasized the importance of diversification. This proved to be a wise decision in 2015 when the BRIC stock markets crashed, causing many stocks to fall by half. Without diversification, my students may have been tempted to buy on dips and found themselves in trouble.

因為買太多股票無法照顧，
每次季報出爐想研究一下，
盈再表按了3支就睡著了，後面的都沒按到，
下一季財報出來了，從後面按，按了3支又睏了。
每次都無法全部按完，既然自己沒辦法照顧，
只好公布出來請同學幫忙照顧。

I have found it difficult to manage my portfolio due to owning too many stocks. Whenever a quarterly report is released, I feel the need to study it thoroughly. However, after examining the first three holdings on On's table, I often become too fatigued to review the remaining stocks. When the financial report for the next quarter was released, I started from the end and checked three stocks before feeling sleepy again. Realizing that I cannot properly manage all of my stocks alone, I have decided to share my list with fellow students to seek their help.

同學的確在幫我照顧，好幾支股票貴了我都不知道，
看討論區同學貼出來「股票貴了為什麼還不賣？」
才去賣。
有一支LLY貴了同學貼出來，當時股價正在噴出，
想多等幾天貴了可以賣到更貴。
3天後馬上另一位同學續問
「貴了為何還不賣，要不要給個說法？」
不賣股票還要寫報告，只好賣給她看，
又賣在最高點。

My students are indeed taking good care of my holdings. I am not always aware of which stocks are becoming expensive. One day, while browsing through the forum, I came across a post from one of my students that read, "Why not sell the stock at an expensive price?" It made me realize that I had missed an opportunity to sell one of my stocks at a higher price. Without wasting any time, I sold it immediately. On another occasion, a student warned on the forum that LLY was expensive, and its stock price was skyrocketing. I decided to wait a few days before making any decision. After three days, another student asked me, "If it's expensive, why not sell it? Can you explain?" Since I didn't want to write a report for not selling the stock, I sold it to her. Thanks to my students' valuable insights and timely warnings, I was able to sell my stocks at the highest possible prices.

我們巴菲特班的投資流程：
同學在討論區報老師明牌，
我買了之後同學再蜂擁而上。

In our Buffett class, we have an investment standard operating procedure (SOP): students report their stock tips to the teacher on the discussion forum, and after I purchase the recommended stocks, my students flock to follow suit.

「不是立即而上，
而是等老師買了跌20%再上。」，
比較精明的同學這樣說。

The smarter students say that they don't rush to buy a stock immediately. Instead, they wait for the teacher to buy it, and then they observe if the stock price drops by 20%.

我的方法已教給大家，
買什麼股票也公告周知，
同學再學不會，不能怪我了！
若學不會就用拷貝的，
我一支買 1 萬美金，同學就買10萬美金，
就賺得比我多了。

I have shared my investment strategy with everyone and publicly disclosed the stocks I buy. If you are still unable to learn it, I cannot be held responsible. If you cannot learn, simply replicate my purchases. If I invest $10,000 in a stock and you invest $100,000 in the same stock, your profit will be greater than mine.

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#85

發表於 2018-1-1 18:18 資料主頁文集私人訊息

若 1. 過去展現過高ROE的記錄，
2. 配得出現金，
3. 不會變的公司
就幾乎可以確定能維持高ROE，
縱使還有少許的不確定性，
透過多種果樹把變壞風險限制住。

If a company meets these three criteria:

A record of high ROE in the past
Consistently high dividend payouts
A durable business model
Then it is highly likely to maintain a high ROE in the future. However, even if there are some uncertainties, it's important to diversify investments in order to limit the risk of potential deterioration.

我買西班牙電信(TEF)時Peter同學特地打電話來，
他在竹科上班，以為我對這家公司頗有研究。
「Telefonica是歐洲很大的公司，
我們公司賣了很多產品給它。」他說，
我才明瞭「喔！那家公司叫Telefonica 」
他訝異「啥～連公司名字都不曉得，你怎麼買股票的？」
我若無其事地答「是啊，我買很多美股公司叫啥都不知道哩，
像NGG、NNI，到底是哪個N？哪個G？哪個 I？都搞不清楚！」
他更吃驚「那你怎麼買TEF？」

When I purchased TEF, my student Peter gave me a call specifically. He works at the Sinzhu Scientific Park and believed that I had conducted extensive research on the company. "Telefonica is a big European company. Our company has sold many products to it," he stated. I only then realized, "Oh! That company is called Telefonica." Peter was surprised and asked, "What? You don't even know the company name? How do you buy stocks?" I nonchalantly responded, "Yes, I've purchased a lot of US stocks, but I don't know their names. For instance, NGG and NNI, which 'N' and 'G' do they stand for? I can't seem to figure it out." He was even more astounded and asked, "Then how did you buy TEF?"

我道「看討論區同學在討論TEF，就去按盈再表，
ROE不錯，配息穩定，最主要看到這句話
它是西班牙和葡萄牙最大的電信公司，
我就懂了，它就是中華電信，就買了！」
前後想不到3秒鐘，之前根本未聽過這家公司！

I replied, "I read the discussions in the forum and checked On's table. TEF had a good ROE and stable dividends. The most important thing was this sentence: 'It is the largest telecommunications company in Spain and Portugal.' I knew it was similar to Chunghwa Telecom, so I bought it!" I made the decision in just 3 seconds. I had never heard of this company before!

我買股都是盈再表按出來一看不錯就買了，
若按出來搔頭抓耳想個老半天，就不買了。
買一支股票不用3秒鐘，我目前買了120支股，
世界還有什麼賺錢方法比這個簡單。

I only invest in stocks that look good on On's table. If I have to spend a lot of time thinking about it, I won't buy it. It takes me less than 3 seconds to make a decision about whether to buy a stock. To date, I have invested in 120 stocks. Is there a simpler way to make money in the world?

同學問「TEF的ROE在下滑，會繼續往下嗎？」
我不曉得TEF的ROE會不會繼續下降，
只要產業地位不變，就相信可以高ROE。
反正多種果樹。

A student inquired, "TEF's ROE is declining, will it continue to do so?" I am uncertain if TEF's ROE will persistently decrease. However, I opine that if the industry situation remains unchanged, there is a possibility for ROE to improve. Nevertheless, diversification is crucial in any case.

確定能維持高ROE，
接下來只要在股價便宜時買進，
就保證投資報酬率最大。
既然報酬率最大了，請問除此之外
還需知道什麼呢？

By maintaining a high ROE and buying stocks at a cheap price, you can ensure the highest return on your investment. What else is there to know when you have the highest return?

Peter不解「你買西班牙電信，
難道不曾打電話問發言人，
去拜訪公司，參加股東大會，追蹤營收... ?」
我蛤了一聲「西班牙電信，打電話給發言人，
我要怎麼跟他說呢？阿諾～」

Peter was confused and asked, "You bought Telefónica. Aren't you going to call the spokesperson, visit the company, attend the general meeting of shareholders, and track its revenue?" “What~“, I replied, “Call spokesperson of Telefonica. What should I tell him ? Ano~"

我買NNI也花不到3秒鐘，看到同學推薦，
查了一下Wiki百科，
它是美國第二大學生貸款公司就知它不會變。
查了第一大ROE不如它就買了。

It took me less than 3 seconds to decide to buy NNI. After seeing the recommendation from my students, I checked Wikipedia and found out that it is the second largest student loan company in the US and is unlikely to change. Additionally, its ROE is better than that of the first university student loan company NAVI. Therefore, I decided to buy NNI.

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#86

發表於 2018-1-1 18:27 資料主頁文集私人訊息

這幾年開始流行看財報在選股，
市面出了幾本教人看財報來選股的書，
有趣的是，作者絕少商學院畢業的，
甚至還有唸美術系或政治系的，連初會都沒修過的。
這幾年台灣財經出版社實在荒唐！
專門找一些外行人出書，
所以我退休之後也要出一本書教大家怎麼拔牙，
反正要亂搞一起來亂搞！
美術系可以教人家看財報，
我統計碩士當然也能教拔牙！

In recent years, it has become popular to read financial reports when selecting stocks. Several books have been published to teach people how to read financial reports for stock selection. Interestingly, most of the authors are not business school graduates, with some even having backgrounds in Fine Arts or Political Science and no prior knowledge of basic accounting. The financial publishing industry in Taiwan has become absurd in recent years, with publishers hiring amateurs to write books. Therefore, after my retirement, I also plan to publish a book on how to extract teeth and join the trend of peculiar publications. Let's have some fun with it! If Art majors can teach people how to read financial reports for stock selection, then as a Master of Statistics, I can certainly teach tooth extraction with the same level of expertise.

這些人教看很多很多個指標，
東拉西扯，穿鑿附會！
他們把看財報當成選股的全部，
其實它只是1/3的工作。
選股需要做3件事情：
第一是看財報，看過去ROE是否穩定和是否配得現金。
第二檢定公司會不會變，
第三則為算貴淑價。
第一跟第三點按盈再表即可解決，
唯一需要人為判斷的是公司會不會變？
這不是看財報或問公司可知的，
要自己想才行。要花長達3秒鐘的時間想。

These non-experts discuss numerous indicators and have a tendency to go off-topic by making improbable connections. They mistakenly believe that scrutinizing financial reports is the sole determinant for stock selection, whereas in actuality, it only constitutes one-third of the process. Stock selection necessitates three actions: firstly, scrutinizing the financial report to ensure the stability of past ROE and adequate cash flow; secondly, evaluating the company's susceptibility to changes; and thirdly, determining whether the stock is overpriced or underpriced. The first and third criteria can be effortlessly evaluated by referring to On's table. However, the only factor that requires human judgment is assessing the company's susceptibility to changes. This cannot be accomplished solely by reviewing the financial report or consulting with the company. Rather, you must evaluate it yourself, which only requires three seconds of careful thought.

跟我一樣把整個道理想通就知道投資真的就這麼簡單！
我們都有一個夢寐以求投資的最高境界：
1. 簡單，簡單到讓人認為這個班是幼幼班，
有人批我都不會分析，只會按盈再表。
我說「對對對，本班正是幼幼班，就是不要分析，
只要按盈再表就好了，這正是本班的宗旨！」
2. 績效好，我投資績效真不賴。
3. 沒有壓力，平常不用操心，即便買錯幾支股票也無妨
我買的投資組合充份展現以上特性

Understanding investing can be simple, just like it is for me. We all have a dream of achieving the highest level of investment, which includes:

1. Simple, so simple that people think this class is like a kindergarten. Some people criticized me for not being able to analyze and only rely on On's table. I said, "Yes, that's right. This class is like a kindergarten. We don't need to analyze, just use On's table. That's exactly what this class is all about!"
2. Good performance - my investment portfolio has yielded impressive results.
3. No pressure - even if you make a few mistakes and purchase the wrong stocks, there's no need to worry on a regular basis.
My investment portfolio fully demonstrates the aforementioned characteristics.

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#87

發表於 2018-1-1 18:32 資料主頁文集私人訊息

來看一下巴菲特的持股是否符合我所講的原則。

第一家是伯林頓北方鐵路公司(BNI)，北美第二大鐵路公司。
2009年老巴花了440億美元併購了這家公司，
440億美元當年跟台積電的市值差不多大。
一個人把台積電買下來，這是投資的最高境界！
我個人也有一個小小心願，
總有一天也要把台積電買下來，
然後把張忠謀叫來問「你現在在幹嘛？」
同學提醒我「要快點，張忠謀不會等你！」

Let's examine if Mr. Buffett's holdings align with the investment principles I mentioned.

Firstly, there's Burlington Northern Railway Company (BNI), which is the second-largest railway company in North America. In 2009, Buffett acquired the company for a whopping $44 billion, which is the same scale as the market value of TSMC in the same year. Acquiring TSMC alone would be the pinnacle of investment! I have a small wish to acquire TSMC on my own one day and summon Morris Chang to ask him, "What are you doing now?" However, my student reminded me that I better hurry up since Morris Chang won't wait for me!

伯林頓ROE16%，看到這種ROE都覺得台鐵、高鐵應該去撞牆。
巴菲特買在100元，預期報酬率7%，
祂是在股價跌到預期報酬率15%時去跟伯林頓談併購，
要把整家公司買下來得付出溢價，即預期報酬率7%。
這是440億美元的投資案，台幣1.3兆，
鐵路是路權一開未來100年都獨家在用，
保證每年都有7%的報酬，這是很好投資案。
我們的勞健保基金若去買這家鐵路股就不會破產了，
勞保基金操盤績效年平均僅2%。

Burlington boasts an ROE of 16%, making Taiwan Railway and High Speed Railway appear inferior. Mr. Buffett acquired Burlington at $100 per share with an expected return of 7%. As the stock price declined and the expected return rose to 15%, he initiated discussions of mergers and acquisitions with Burlington. To acquire the entire company, he had to pay a premium resulting in an expected return of 7%. This $44 billion investment equals NT$1.3 trillion. The railway holds a monopoly for the next 100 years, ensuring a 7% return each year, creating an excellent investment opportunity. If our labor and health insurance funds had invested in this railway stock, they would not have gone bankrupt. The average annual performance of labor insurance fund traders is a mere 2%.

學巴菲特要學到家，看到祂買北美第二大鐵路公司，
我就去買第三大鐵路公司CSX，ROE21%蠻穩定的。
買在22.8美元，預期報酬率14%，
投資 1 萬美元，它確保我這 1 萬美元在未來100年
每年14%報酬率。

Following in the footsteps of Buffett, I observed his acquisition of the second largest railroad company in North America and decided to purchase CSX, the third largest railway company with a stable ROE of 21%. I bought it at a price of $22.8 per share, with an expected return of 14%. With my investment of $10,000, I can expect to receive a 14% annual return for the next 100 years.

2015年我又買了UNP，聯合太平洋鐵路，
北美最大鐵路公司，ROE24%。
買在87.2美金，預期報酬率13%。
巴菲特只買第二大，我把第一大和第三大全買下來。

I purchased shares of UNP, which stands for Union Pacific Railroad, in 2015. It is the largest railway company in North America with an ROE of 24%. I acquired the stock at a price of $87.2, with an expected return of 13%. In contrast, Buffett only acquired shares of the second largest company. Additionally, I also invested in CSX, the third largest railway company.

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#88

發表於 2018-1-1 18:39 資料主頁文集私人訊息

雀巢是瑞士食品公司，歐洲市值最大的公司，
雀巢奶粉我們都喝過，ROE 35%，盈再率僅19%，
標準的巴菲特概念股。
老巴買在47.6美元，預期報酬率20%，相當便宜。

Nestlé (NSRGY) is a Swiss food company and currently holds the position of the largest company in Europe in terms of market value. Most of us have consumed Nestle milk powder at some point, and the company has a solid ROE of 35% along with a Profit Margin (PR%) of 19%, making it a standard Buffett stock. Warren Buffett purchased Nestlé shares at a price of $47.6 and expected a return of 20%, which is considered quite cheap.

陸博潤(LZ)，全球最大潤滑油添加劑製造商，
ROE 33%，盈再率很低僅6%。
巴菲特買在135美元，預期報酬率15%，
老巴都等便宜才買。

Lubrizol (LZ) is the world's largest manufacturer of lubricant additives. While the company boasts a strong ROE of 33%, its PR% is comparatively low, standing at only 6%. Warren Buffett purchased LZ shares at $135 with an expected return of 15%, and chose to wait for a cheaper price before making any further investments.

富國銀行(WFC)是巴菲特第二大持股，
祂一直在買，為何祂這麼喜歡這家公司？
2008年次貸風暴時ROE 6%仍維持獲利，
其它銀行則嚴重虧損，
顯示富國銀行資產品質相當不錯。
上一次老巴加碼在25美元，預期報酬率14%，
祂買的價格跟盈再表算的便宜價差不多。

Wells Fargo (WFC) is Warren Buffett's second-largest holding, and he has been actively buying shares. The reason for his strong interest in the company could be attributed to its strong performance during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, where it managed to remain profitable despite other banks suffering heavy losses. This indicates that the asset quality of Wells Fargo Bank is quite good. The last time Mr. Buffett negotiated a deal for Wells Fargo, the expected return was 14%, and he managed to purchase the shares for a price that was considered cheap by On's table.

特易購(TSCDY)英國最大超市、世界第三大。
2012年前ROE還不錯有18%，
巴菲特買在3.3英鎊，預期報酬率18%。
老巴買了之後股價跌了14%，我即跳進去買，
想跟股神買一樣的股票應該不會有事，
結果最慘時賠了60%。
原因德國廉價超市競爭，獲利衰退。
巴菲特很早跑掉了，卻沒通知我，這傢伙實在不夠意思。

Tesco (TSCDY) is the largest supermarket chain in the UK and the third-largest in the world. Prior to 2012, the company had a solid ROE of 18%. Warren Buffett purchased the stock at 3.3 pounds, with an expected return of 18%. However, after his purchase, the stock price fell by 14%, which prompted me to buy the stock as well, thinking that it was a wise decision to follow the "stock god." Unfortunately, the profits of the company were impacted by competition from Germany's low-cost supermarkets, which led to a decline in profits. As a result, I suffered losses of up to 60%. To make matters worse, Buffett sold his shares early without notifying me, which was disappointing.

艾克森美孚(XOM)世界最大的石油公司，
ROE穩定維持在20%以上，比台塑好。
這家是我先買，老巴才跟著買，
我懷疑祂有在看我們的討論區。

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is the world's largest oil company with a ROE that has consistently remained above 20%, which is better than Formosa Plastics. I purchased the stock first, and then Mr. Buffett followed. It is possible that he might be following our discussion forum.

以上是巴菲特的持股，
老巴的持股我們也會想買，
祂買的價格跟盈再表淑價差不多，
我的持股老巴也會買，
足見我的方法跟巴菲特很接近。

The above are Mr. Buffett's holdings, and we like to invest in the same stocks. The price at which he purchased these stocks is similar to the cheap price listed in On's table. Interestingly, he also bought some of the stocks that I own, indicating that my investment approach is quite similar to that of Mr. Buffett.

看了老巴的持股，請問有何感想？
都是耳熟能詳的龍頭股，
鐵路公司、雀巢奶粉、富國銀行，都至少聽過。
同學會不會突然有個衝動，
想打電話跟巴菲特報名當祂的接班人？
買這種公司誰不會？
而且還可以跟老巴說不用花5分鐘，
只要15秒即可，因有盈再表。
屆時借祂按比較快。

After reviewing Mr. Buffett's holdings, how do you feel? These are all well-known, leading stocks, such as railway companies, Nestle milk powder, and Wells Fargo Bank, which most people have at least heard of. Does this make you feel excited and eager to call Buffett to be his successor? We all know the kind of companies he likes. Moreover, you can tell Buffett that he doesn't need to take 5 minutes to make a decision; if he checks On's table, it will only take him 15 seconds.

同學有無赫然發現全世界的股票都會玩了！
第一堂跟各位保證，
給我2天，就可以把您變成巴菲特，
讓您全世界的股票都會玩，
現在是不是達成了。
不僅台股，美、中、英、瑞士等股都會玩了，
盈再表按得出來的49國股票都會玩了。

Do you now feel confident in your ability to invest in stocks around the world? In the first lesson, I promised that in two days, you would be able to learn how to invest like Buffett and play stocks all over the world. Now, I have fulfilled that promise. Thanks to On's table, you can now invest in stocks not only in Taiwan but also in the US, China, Britain, Switzerland, and 49 other countries.

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#89

發表於 2018-1-1 19:12 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿 13/21：IRR
Lecture 13/21 IRR

選股有三大條件：
第一ROE要穩定，
第二要能配得出現金，
最近一年盈再率小於80%，
最近3年配息率大於40%。
第三大條件不會變的公司，
產品不會變、
產業地位不會變的龍頭股，
想3秒鐘就理解的公司，
懂得挑不會變的公司巴菲特神功大概就練成了。

There are three primary criteria for selecting stocks. Firstly, the company's ROE must remain stable. Secondly, the company should have high dividends, which means that the dividend payout ratio in the last three years should be over 40%, and the current dividend should be less than 80% of last year's PR%. The third and final criterion is that the company should have durability. Its products should be irreplaceable, and it should be a leading company in an industry with a stable status. Ideally, the company should be easily understandable within three seconds. If you can identify a durable company, you possess Buffett's investment skills.

選好股之後接下來就等便宜買，抱到貴才賣，
底下介紹貴淑價怎麼算。
股價不是亂漲的，沿著ROE所定義的價值線上下擺動，
所謂價值線是中間那條線，又稱合理價，
即跟正常時期定存利率6.7%一樣報酬的價格，
因做任何投資都是跟定存利率做比較。
股票不是買在合理價，因股票有風險要求的報酬較高，
必須比定存6.7%高1倍以上才會買，即15%以上才夠便宜。

Once you have selected stocks, you should wait to purchase them at a cheap price and then sell them when they become more expensive. The following explains how to determine what is considered cheap and expensive. Stock prices do not fluctuate randomly. Instead, they move up and down along the value line, which is determined by the company's ROE. The value line is the middle line, also known as the fair price, which is equivalent to the 1-year time deposit rate of 6.7% during normal periods. When considering investments, it is important to compare them with the interest rate. Stocks are riskier than deposits and require a higher discount. Therefore, stocks should not be purchased at the fair price. To be considered cheap enough, the price should be at least 15% higher than the 1-year time deposit rate of 6.7%.

同學問貴淑價應跟隨利率調整嗎？
理論上要，但一連動即變成要去預測利率升降？
這是不可知的，
我2013年買VALE和AESAY時，
並不知巴西利率3年後會從7%劇升到15%。

Students may ask whether the cheap and expensive prices should be adjusted with interest rates. Theoretically, yes. However, once the prices are linked to interest rates, we would have to predict the rise and fall of interest rates, which is unpredictable. For example, when I bought VALE and AESAY in 2013, I had no way of knowing that interest rates in Brazil would rise sharply from 7% to 15% in three years.

而且同一市場，各類股本益比差距也很大，
如美股2016年初AMZN本益比176倍，石油股卻僅2倍。
若要跟著利率調整本益比如何調呢？

Furthermore, there is a significant difference in the PER among various sectors in the same market. For instance, in early 2016, the PER of Amazon.com (AMZN) was 176 times, while the oil industry's PER was only 2 times. It is not clear how to adjust the PER based on interest rates.

比較可行的辦法是以正常時期利率6.7%為準，
再搭配GDP來加減，
GDP理論在講稿16/21詳述。

A more practical approach is to base the calculation on a 6.7% interest rate during a normal period and adjust it according to the GDP. The GDP theorem is explained in detail in Lecture 16/21.

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發表於 2018-1-1 19:23 資料主頁文集私人訊息

講稿4/21曾證明只要高ROE，便宜買，報酬率就會最大，
現在就用ROE和買進價來算報酬率，
ROE由常利，經常淨利算得，

During Lecture 4/21, it was demonstrated that the greatest investment return can be achieved when both the Return on ROE is high and the purchase price is cheap. We can calculate the expected return by using the ROE and purchase price. The ROE is determined by recurring net profit.

常利 = 淨利 – 一次性利益

recurring net = net profit - one-time profits

一次性利益如賣土地和賣股票
內在價值隱含經常的概念，每年都發生的利益才算數。
有些公司在獲利不佳時會賣土地來美化帳面，必須扣除。

One-time profits include gains from the disposal of land and stocks. The concept of intrinsic value implies that only profits that occur consistently each year are considered. Some companies may sell land to improve their financial statements when they experience poor profits, but these gains must be deducted as they are not recurring.

一次性利益才須扣掉，而非業外(投資收入)，
波克夏、鴻海、台達電、巨大都是投資收入比率高的公司，
若投資收入比重高就不好這些偉大公司都會被排除掉。

Non-operating profits, such as investment income, will not be deducted as only one-time profits are considered. Companies such as Berkshire Hathaway, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Delta Electronics, and Giant Manufacturing, which have high investment income, would be eliminated if investment income were deducted. These are all great companies.

鴻海、巨大為何投資收入多？
因為透過轉投資去海外設廠，它們的投資收入仍屬本業。
對於公司的獲利我們在意的是有無經常性，
至於來自投資收入無所謂，
而財報不透明看合併報表即可。

Hon Hai Precision Industry and Giant Manufacturing have high investment income because they establish overseas factories through subsidiaries. Their investment income is considered part of their operating business. When evaluating a company's profit, what matters is whether it is recurring, including investment income. If you suspect that a company's financial report is not transparent, it is recommended to review the consolidated statement.

牽涉到淨利的指標，ROE、盈再率、EPS、大於5億元
都改用常利來算。
金融股只扣賣資產，因投資屬本業。

Indicators related to net profit, such as ROE, PR%, EPS, and net profit over NT$500 million, will be adjusted to reflect recurring net profit. Financial stocks only deduct gains from the disposal of assets, as gains from the sale of stocks are considered part of their operating business.

常利的觀念源自我在怡富證券當研究員時學到的觀念，
restated earnings(重編淨利) 即常利
reported earnings(報表淨利) 為稅後淨利
restated = reported - 處分利得
國外也有recurring earnings類似的講法。

The concept of recurring net profit originated from my experience as an analyst at Jardine Fleming. Restated earnings are equivalent to recurring net profit, while reported earnings refer to net profit. Restated earnings are calculated by subtracting disposal gains from reported earnings. Similar terminology, such as recurring earnings, is used in other foreign securities firms.

一次性利益包括
1. 異常利益
2. 異常稅額
3. 暴增驟減

One-time profits include
1. Unusual income
2. Tax abnormalities
3. Unusual high and low

1. 異常利益
台股 : 土地+投資+其他+租金+補助+停業
土地 = [處分不動產、廠房及設備利益或損生]
投資 = [處分投資利益或損失]
其他 = [其他收入-其他] - [其他利益及損失-其他] + [其他營業收入-其他] - [其他業外收入(支出)]
租金 = [租金收入] + [業外租金收入(支出)]
補助 = [補助收益]
停業 = [停業單位損益]
感謝徐廣福桑指認上述會計科目

1. Unusual income
Taiwan Stocks: Land + Investment + Others + Rent + Subsidy + Discountinued Operations
Land = [Disposal gains or loss on real property, plant and equipment]
Investment = [Disposal gains or loss on investment]
Other = [Other income-other]-[Other income and losses-other] + [Other operating income-other]-[Other non-operating income (expense)]
Rent = [Rental Income] + [Non-operating Rental Income (Expenses)]
Subsidy = [subsidy income]
Discountinued Operations = [Income or Loss from Discountinued Operations]
Thanks to Guangfu Siu for identifying the above accounting accounts

美股：[unusual expense]，包含
賣土地和賣股票、停業損失、商譽、持股漲跌
商譽：4Q18 KHC提列154億美元商譽減損
持股漲跌：4Q18 波克夏認列354億美元持股跌價損失

US stocks: [unusual expense] including
Sale of land and stocks, Income or Loss from Discountinued Operations, goodwill, capital gain or loss on stock holdings
Goodwill: 4Q18 KHC withdraws $15.4 billion in goodwill impairment
Capital gain or loss on shareholding: 4Q18 Berkshire recognizes $35.4 billion of capital loss in holdings

港股：[特殊項目]+[出售資產]
中股：[非流动资产处置损失]+[其中:非流动资产处置损失]

Hong Kong Stocks: [Special Items] + [Sale of Assets]
China Stocks: [loss on disposal of non-current assets] + [including: loss on disposal of non-current assets]

2. 稅率異常也會影響常利的推估，
4Q17 川普稅改造成波克夏ROE由6%暴增為16%，
該現象非美股獨有，其它國家亦然，如RBGLY，
因此常利須再扣除異常稅額：

2. Abnormal tax rates can also impact the estimation of recurring net profit. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2017, Trump's tax reform caused Berkshire Hathaway's ROE to increase from 6% to 16%. This situation is not unique to US stocks, as seen in other countries like Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY). Therefore, abnormal tax must be deducted from recurring net profit.

當稅率大於相鄰稅率1.2倍或小於0.8倍時，
異常稅額＝淨利 - 稅前x(1-相鄰稅率)

Abnormal tax is calculated when the tax rate is 1.2 times greater or 0.8 times less than the adjacent tax rate.
Abnormal tax amount = net profit - pre-tax x (1-adjacent tax rate)

相鄰稅率採percentile(相近3年稅率, 0.5)，
相鄰稅率上下限訂為35%和0，否則取上期相鄰稅率。
稅前虧損時，不調整異常稅額

The adjacent tax rate is determined by using a percentile of the tax rate for the previous three years (0.5). If the tax rate exceeds the upper limit of 35% or falls below the lower limit of 0%, the adjacent tax rate from the previous period will be used instead. If the company incurs a loss before tax, the abnormal tax amount is not adjusted.

3. 一次性利益除列在異常利益之外，
也藏在各會計科目，導至常利暴增或驟減，例如：
2018/12 UL 出售業務利益列於營利，導致營利暴增
2018/12 FMS 業外收入暴增
2018/9 NWL 常利暴增查不出原因

3. One-time income is considered unusual income and can be hidden in various accounts, leading to unusual high and low in recurring profits. For example, in December 2018, Unilever's (UL) sale of business benefits was recorded in their operating profit, resulting in a surge in operating profit. Similarly, in December 2018, Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) reported a surge in non-operating income. In September 2018, Newell Brands (NWL) experienced a sudden surge in recurring net profit, for which no clear explanation was found.

驟減：常利把最差換成次差
過去5年常利把最差換成次差，以防一年驟減逆轉淑貴
次差 = percentile(前5年常利, 0.3)

In case of a unusual low in recurring profit, the worst result is replaced with the second worst result from the past five years. This is done to avoid expensive stocks turning from cheap to expensive due to a sharp decline in profit in a given year.
The second worst recurring profit = percentile (the first 5 years of recurring profit, 0.3)

暴增A：營收未大增，但常利率暴增
若該年營收小於去年營收x1.15
且常利率大於percentile(前5年常利率, 0.7)x1.3
則暴增 = 常利 - 營收 x percentile(前5年常利率, 0.7)
常利率 =常利 / 營收

感謝陳坤良同學指導

Unusual high A：
In case of a unusual high in recurring profit despite a lack of significant sales growth, the following criteria are used:
If the sales for the year are less than 1.15 times the sales of the previous year,
and recurring profit margin is greater than percentile (the first 5 years recurring profit margin, 0.7) x 1.3
then unusual high = recurring profit - sales x percentile (the first 5 years of recurring profit margin, 0.7)
recurring profit margin = recurring profit/sales

Special thanks to Curry for providing guidance.

暴增B：常利暴增3倍，把最佳換成次佳
次佳 = percentile(前5年常利, 0.7)

感謝陳坤良同學指導

Unusual high B：
If the recurring profit has increased by three times, then the best recurring profit will be replaced with the second best
Second best of recurring profit = percentile (the first 5 years of recurring profit, 0.7)

Thanks Curry for instruction.

有了常利之後，即可用前5年常利來推算預期常利
只取前5年因年代更久遠的獲利不具參考意義
其中今年為過去4季

After obtaining the recurring profits, we will use the recurring profits of the previous five years to calculate the expected recurring profits.
Only profits from the first five years are considered, as profits from earlier years are not relevant for reference. For this year, we will use the profits of the past four quarters.

暴增驟減只局限在後2年常利，
前3年則由底下「特別高、特別低」來處理。

The unusual high and low are confined to the recurring benefits of the last two years. The first three years are dealt with based on "exceptionally high" or "exceptionally low" below.

前3年常利：
取percentile(第一年:第三年, 0.7)
取percentile(第一年:第三年, 0.3)
後2年常利採簡單平均

Recurring profits for the first 3 years:
Take percentile (first year: third year, 0.7)
Take percentile (first year: third year, 0.3)
Simple average for the last 2 years

先處理某一年常利特別高或特別低之特別狀況
若後2年平均常利為正
特別高，percentile(前3年, 0.7)大於後2年平均之2倍，
如長榮(2603)
2019年 983
2020年 24,186
2021年 334,250
2022年 44,177
2023年 44,177

Firstly, address exceptional scenarios where the recurring profit for a specific year is unusually high or low.
If the average recurring profit for the next two years is positive.
For instances of exceptionally high recurring profit, if the percentile (the first 3 years, 0.7) exceeds twice the average of the last 2 years, consider Evergreen (2603) as an example:
2019: 983
2020: 24,186
2021: 334,250
2022: 44,177
2023: 44,177

特別低，percentile(前3年, 0.3)小於後2年平均之0.1，
如2501.T 札幌啤酒
2019年 6,792
2020年 (17,139)
2021年 12,218
2022年 6,650
2023年 7,068

When the recurring profit is exceptionally low, with the the percentile (the first 3 years, 0.3) falling below 0.1 times the average of the last 2 years, take for example Sapporo Brewery Co., Ltd. (2501.T):
2019: 6,792
2020: (17,139)
2021: 12,218
2022: 6,650
2023: 7,068

以上特別高和特別低之預期常利 = 後2年平均

The expected recurring profits for the above exceptionally high and low, are based on the average of the last 2 years.

再來處理底下狀況：
當常利往上，後2年平均大於percentile(前3年, 0.7)時，
預期常利 = 0.3xpercentile(前3年, 0.7) + 0.7x後2年平均

Handle the following scenario next:
When recurring profits increase, and the average of the last 2 years exceeds the percentile (previous three years, 0.7),
Expected recurring profit = 0.3 x percentile (previous three years, 0.7) + 0.7 x average over the last two years

當常利往下，後2年平均小於0.8xpercentile(前3年, 0.3)時，
預期常利 = 0.3xpercentile(前3年, 0.3) + 0.7x後2年平均

When recurring profit decline, the average of the last 2 years is less than percentile (the first 3 years, 0.3),
expected recurring profit = 0.3xpercentile (the first 3 years, 0.3) + 0.7x the average of the last 2 years

當常利持平時，
預期常利 = 0.55xpercentile(前3年, 0.3) + 0.45x後2年平均

When recurring profit is flat,
expected recurring profit = 0.55xpercentile (the first 3 years, 0.3) + 0.45x the average of the last 2 years

預期ROE = 預期常利 / 去年淨值

用預期常利來求預期ROE，而非直接拿過去5年ROE來平均，
因為ROE平均法當淨值變動大時會失準，
如買回庫藏股和大額現金增資。

Expected ROE = expected recurring profit / last year's net assets

Instead of directly averaging the ROEs of the past 5 years, we use the expected recurring profit to calculate the expected ROE. This is because the average ROE method can be inaccurate when there are significant changes in net assets, such as a buyback of treasury shares or a large amount of rights issue.

用預期常利求得的預期ROE，
非指公司未來獲利僅為預期常利，而是將按預期ROE進行，
隨著淨值增加未來獲利仍會成長。

Obtaining expected ROE through expected recurring profit does not imply that the company's future profits will be limited to expected recurring profit. Instead, they will be achieved through the expected ROE. As net assets increase, future profits will continue to grow.

若覺得內定預期常利不合理可手動調整，
如景氣循環股在景氣谷底或公司一時變不好時，
請自行將正常時期常利代入。

If you find the default expected recurring profit to be unreasonable, you can manually adjust it. For instance, during the bottom of the business cycle of cyclical stocks or when the company's performance deteriorates for a while, you can substitute the recurring profit during a normal period by yourself.

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