mikeon88
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註冊 2007-1-14 用戶註冊天數 6305
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作假帳的公司配不出現金，
不過若願意打腫臉充胖子，還是可以配出現金，
這裡有三個例子：大覇、雅新跟SAY。
Companies involved in accounting fraud typically cannot afford to pay high dividends, but they may still pay out some dividends as a way to conceal their fraudulent activities. Three examples of such companies are Dbtel (5304.TW), Yaxin, and SAY.
大覇做手機的，2000年第一家跳出來說接到
MOTO手機代工訂單，
2000年3G手機執照正要發行，
各國電信公司都在高價競標，因商機龐大，
市場也看好手機代工訂單將湧進台灣。
大覇消息宣布之後利多不斷：
一開始營收一再創新高，
還招待基金經理人去上海松江看工廠，看過的人都說規模宏大，
公司還透露上海廠準備在當地上市。
不久又宣稱拿到中國手機內銷權，
當時只發了五張執照，
大家期待大霸不僅代工做得很大，
連利潤較高的自有品牌業務也大有可為。
法人競相看好，某投信的基金經理人跟我說
「大霸將是手機業的廣達」，那時股王是廣達，股價漲800多元。
另一家投信經理人偷偷跟我說，他透過非常秘密的管道打聽到，
在MOTO當採購的那個人都已經跳槽到大霸去上班了，
準備去大霸領股票還賺得更多。
我們當研究員這行什麼不多就是內線最多。
In 2000, the mobile phone manufacturer Dbtel claimed to have received OEM orders for MOTO mobile phones, as 3G mobile phone licenses were about to be issued. Telecom companies around the world were bidding at high prices, and the market was optimistic that mobile phone OEM orders would flood into Taiwan. After a series of positive news announcements, the bullish trend continued. Initially, sales hit record highs for months, and the company invited fund managers to visit its factory in Songjiang, Shanghai, where they were impressed by its scale. The company also revealed that the Shanghai plant was preparing to be listed locally. Later, the company announced that it had obtained a license to sell mobile phones in China, of which only five were issued at that time. Everyone hoped that Dbtel could not only become a major OEM manufacturer, but also make more money from the more profitable own-brand business. Many institutional investors were quite optimistic about Dbtel. A fund manager told me he expected "Dbtel will become the Quanta of the mobile phone industry." Quanta was the king of stocks at the time, and its stock price rose by more than NT$800. Another investment manager told me privately that he obtained the information through very secret channels. A MOTO procurement official had jumped to work at Dbtel to get more bonuses. As research analysts, we often have access to insider information.
大霸股價從18元一路大漲到150元，突然又從150元跌回100元，
當時曾跟它的最大股東某投信的一堆基金經理人去見董事長，
最大股東見董事長這是最高層的會面，最內線了。
董事長叫莫自治跟我們吹噓了公司未來美好的前景，
講著講著快要結束的時候，老莫突然冒出一句話
「你現在買我的股票抱3年可以賺10倍」，
董事長親口跟他的最大股東這樣講。
我們聽到這句話眼睛一亮，可是沒有失去理智馬上問他
「這個3年賺10倍是從現在100元開始算，
還是從最早的18元開始算？」若從18元開始算也沒什麼搞頭。
我記得清楚莫自治斬釘截鐵地說「就是從現在100元開始算」。
很恨當時沒有錄音錄下來，
同學現在上課錄音是正確的，以後才可以作為呈堂證供！
The stock price of Dbtel surged from NT$18 to NT$150 before suddenly dropping to NT$100. During that time, I accompanied a group of fund managers from the investment trust company, which happened to be the largest shareholder, to meet with the company's chairman. This was the most senior meeting, which offered the most extensive insider information. During the meeting, the chairman invited Zihzhih Mo to talk about the company's promising future. As the meeting was wrapping up, Mo made an unexpected remark, "If you buy my stocks now and hold them for 3 years, you can earn 10 times the current value." The chairman himself repeated the statement to the largest shareholder. Although we were intrigued by the offer, we didn't immediately lose our wits, and instead asked for clarification. "Is the 10-fold return based on the current price of NT$100 or the earliest price of NT$18?" We wondered. If the return was based on NT$18, it wouldn't be that profitable. I distinctly recall Mo's confident response, "The return starts at NT$100." I regret that we didn't record the conversation, but students today should note that recording is a valid form of evidence in court.
後來大霸股價從100元跌到 1 元 ，
現在細想，莫自治說3年賺10倍這句話是對的，
去放空的話就有。
請問股票從100元跌到 1 元，放空的話可以賺幾倍？
放空是借股票來賣，以後再買來還，
放空要繳融券保證金9成，放空100元的股票須繳90元，
跌到 1 元再買來還，
所以放空最多賺 1 倍多一點。
可是做多呢，股價從 1 元漲到100元，
現股買進，可以賺99倍。
放空最多賺 1 倍，作多能賺好幾倍，
所以股票應該以作多為主，沒必要去放空，
因放空不會成為有錢人。
股票便宜時買進，一路抱到貴才賣，
賣掉之後就擺現金，或再找其他便宜的股票，
不要反手放空。
The stock price of Dbtel later plummeted from NT$100 to NT$1. Upon reflection, Mo's statement that you can earn 10 times in 3 years is correct, but only if you go short. If the stock price drops from NT$100 to NT$1, how much can you profit from going short? Short selling involves borrowing shares, selling them, and then buying them back. To go short, you must put up a 90% margin, which means you need to pay NT$90 to go short on a stock priced at NT$100. If the stock price drops to NT$1 and you buy it back, the most you can profit from short selling is just over 1 time. However, if the stock price rises from NT$1 to NT$100, buying the stock can earn you up to 99 times your investment. Therefore, it is more profitable to go long than to go short. Short selling will not make you rich. Instead, buy stocks when they are cheap and hold them until they become expensive. After selling, keep the cash or look for other undervalued stocks. Do not rush to go short.
不過有人說高點賣掉之後要再等它下來，有時候要等好久，
上一次就等了2年半才落底。
這很正常，因為景氣循環是3到5年一個循環，
從高點到低點是半個循環，等 1 年或2年半很正常。
有人說，等那麼久會不會太無聊？
無聊想要找樂子也不必到股市來找。
真的無聊，錢又太多，跟我一樣的話，
可以去買一艘遊艇來把妹妹，不是比較有趣嗎？
我們淡水要坐遊艇把妹妹很簡單，
只要60元，從渡船頭載到漁人碼頭。
However, some people suggest that after selling at a high point, you may have to wait a long time for the stock to drop again. Last time, one person waited two and a half years for the stock to reach its bottom. This is normal as the business cycle typically lasts from 3 to 5 years, with high to low being a half cycle. Waiting for a year or two and a half is not uncommon. Some may wonder if it's boring to wait so long. If you find it boring and want to have fun, the stock market doesn't have to be your only option. If you're as bored and wealthy as I am, why not buy a yacht and take a girl out for a date? Taking a yacht in Tamsui is easy and affordable, with a fare of only NT$60 from the ferry pier to Fisherman's Wharf.
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