mikeon88
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註冊 2007-1-14 用戶註冊天數 6305
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有人說天王分析師?
在我那個年代也是天王分析師,
怡富是台灣最大外資券商,一半外資在我們公司下單,
當年電子股最紅,
我是當時台灣薪水最高的分析師。
Are you asking if I'm a star analyst? Well, I'm not just a star analyst, I'm a superstar analyst. Jardine Fleming is the largest foreign brokerage firm in Taiwan, with half of all foreign investors placing their orders through us. During that time, electronics stocks were the most popular, and I was the highest-paid analyst in Taiwan.
我寫一本產業報告,推薦10家電子股,8家被外資買到滿,
當年外資持股有上限只能買到股本的10%。
那時在看盤就覺得奇怪怎麼我推薦的股票動不動就在漲停板?
原來都是我們家客戶買的。
I wrote an industry report recommending 10 electronics stocks, out of which 8 were fully bought by foreign investors. During that time, the foreign shareholding limit was 10%. When I checked the stock quotes, I was amazed to see that my recommended stocks often hit daily limits. Later on, I discovered that it was because our clients had purchased them.
有一次去財訊聽老謝演講,
他提到台股正流行外資概念股QFII Play,
他說外資很看好電子股,然後就一路唸,
外資估2301光寶今年EPS、明年EPS多少,
2302麗正多少,一路唸到最後一支。
心想他在唸什麼?越聽越耳熟,
原本他在唸我估的EPS,
這樣我算不算天王分析師!
One day, I attended a speech by Jinhe Sie at Wealth magazine. He mentioned the growing popularity of QFII play, qualified foreign institutional investors play, in the Taiwan market. He said that foreign investors were very bullish about electronics stocks, and he read out some estimated EPS figures loudly, including those for 2301 Lite-On and 2302 Rectron. As I listened, I realized that he was reading my estimated EPS figures. In this way, I am regarded as a king analyst !
有人說,外資喊的目標價都亂喊,不是喊太高就是太低。
外資目標價並未亂喊,
請問宏逹電漲到1,300元喊1,500元亂喊嗎?
很保守的喊吧。
喊100元的才是亂喊,雖然後來他對了。
Some people say that foreign investors' target prices are all arbitrary and either too high or too low. However, foreign investors do not randomly shout out target prices. For example, when the price of HTC rose to NT$1300, was it really arbitrary to set the target price at NT$1500? It was a conservative estimate. On the other hand, setting the target price at NT$100 was arbitrary, even though the person who did so turned out to be right later on.
何以如此?因市場上大部分人都是看趨勢,
看趨勢有一個偏差,越漲越看好,越跌越悲觀。
漲到1,300當然看1,500。
不像我們價值投資,越漲越覺得貴,
跌低了反而高興可撿便宜。
只是價值投資者在市場上是少數。
Why is this? It's because most people in the market tend to focus on trends. However, there is a bias in following trends. The more the market goes up, the more optimistic people become, and the more it goes down, the more pessimistic they become. When a stock rises to 1,300, it will undoubtedly raise the target to 1,500. Unlike value investors who believe that the more a stock rises, the more expensive it becomes, most investors tend to follow the market trend. If a stock falls, value investors are usually happy to take advantage of the opportunity to buy at a bargain price. However, value investors are a minority in the market.
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