polyperry
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註冊 2011-3-19
用戶註冊天數 4795
用戶失蹤天數 523
來自 886
111.242.32.230
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我的想法:
BUFFETT: No, it can't be as profitable. The profitability of banking is a function of two items. Return on assets and assets to equity.
BUFFETT: And return on assets is not going to go up particularly. USB has done the very best on that. They're at about 1.7 percent. Wells is between 1.4 and 1.5 percent. But most banks are lower. Now, if you have 20 times leverage and you're getting 1.5 percent on assets, you're making 30 percent on equity.
感覺老巴在看銀行業,看的更仔細,或許是行業的獨特性吧.除了ROE,還要看ROA,Assets to Equity.
Profitability of Banking
=F(ROA,Assets to equity)
=F(ROA*Assets/Equity)
=F(EPS/Assets*Assets/Equity)
=F(EPS/Equity)
=F(ROE)
ROE=ROA*Assets/Equity=1.5%*20/1=30%
ROE=ROA*Assets/Equity
把ROA看成自行車騎士的能力.
Assets/Equity其實就是在講槓桿,類似變速齒輪的概念(or乘數,光電倍增管 etc.),能夠把ROA放大.
而ROE是最終的衡量標準(數學正規化的概念,不同行業的ROA被正規化為ROE,才可以比較).
老巴應該是強調選擇銀行標的時要避免 1)低ROA(騎士本質差)(2)高槓桿(卻過度靠機械),形成高ROE(在比賽取勝),所以才會把ROE拆開來看仔細.
不是翻譯,只是表達意思.
BUFFETT: And that was not lost on people a few years back. And they pushed balance sheets, and they're still pushing them in Europe(歐洲銀行持續高槓桿). But they've cut back on that here(美國的銀行現在槓桿好多了). So they will not be having the leverage in the banking system. It'll be even more restricted among the bigger banks as part of the new rules, and you won't be able to earn more on assets than before, and so with less leverage in the same return on assets, you will have a lower return on equity(老巴最終還是又回到用ROE看銀行). Banks were —banks were earning 25 percent on tangible equity not so many years ago. And really, that's kind of a crazy number. You know, for a basic semi-commodity business, you really don't want to allow that. But that was allowed because people felt that their bank deposits, and they were, were guaranteed by the government(美國的銀行以前之所以採取高槓桿,乃基於人民相信存款是被政府擔保); and, therefore, there was no market force that would look at the —at the shape of a —condition of a bank(也因此市場力量對銀行本質是好是壞沒啥影響) and say, `Well, I won't put my money there because they look kind of dangerous with all this leverage.' And therefore, people got to push and push it and push it, and then the government says, `Listen, we got a vested interest in this. You're using our credit(政府最終對銀行表示抗議,指人民不當的認知(政府擔保存款),使銀行無限制擴大槓桿是不對的), in effect, and if you want to play, you're only going to have 10-to-1(因此限制槓桿倍數), or some number like that. So the returns on banks have come down. It's still a good business.
[ 本帖最後由 polyperry 於 2013-9-18 19:57 編輯 ]
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