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註冊 2014-8-16 用戶註冊天數 3512
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115.82.246.244
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認同Tony桑看法:
mail詢問公司,回覆如下供大家參考,是有影響,14Q2季報有提到(有興趣的人可以幫忙查一下),14Q3季報11/5將發佈,應會有更新的說明。
巴西大盤不好因:1.景氣差(gdp為負的),2.匯率不斷眨有關
水電廠表現更差:1.執政的工黨(總統連任)以照顧窮人為訴求,要求降低電費;2.乾旱有關
但看了此新聞 http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/14/9/24/n4255778.htm
其左下角之歷史新聞,顯示巴西乾旱已不是最近的事,已十年以上,AE能持續好這麼久,值得再給機會看下去
-------- 原始郵件 --------
寄件者:RI AES Tiete < ri.aestiete@aes.com>
傳送日期:Thu, 30 Oct 2014 02:34:26 +0800
收件者:
副本:RI AES Tiete < ri.aestiete@aes.com>
主旨:RES: My big concern about drought impact
Good afternoon,
The inflows and rain in the rainy season between 2013 and 2014 (between November/13 and April/2014) associated to the growth in load/consumption resulted in a reduction of the level of reservoirs for the SE/CW regions (subsystem in which AES Tietê's power plants are located), when compared to the historical average.
As a reference, the level of storage in AES Tietê's reservoirs in August/2013 was of 75% and 67% in September/2013, while the values in August and September of 2014 were 31% and 34% respectively. Due to this hydrology, the Company published in its last results release (2Q14), its estimations of GSF (physical guarantee reduction) associated to the hydrology of 6% to 8%, which predicts a negative impact of R$ 350 - 500 million in the Company's Ebitda in the year of 2014. This analysis will be reviewed on the Company's 3Q14 results release. It is important to remember that even though the current negative scenario in hydrology is responsible for a raise in the risk perception in the energy market, it has also created opportunities for AES Tietê since the Company is currently seeking to contract its available energy for 2016 forward (since its contract with AES Eletropaulo expires in December of 2015).
Please do not hesitate in contacting us if you have any further questions.
Regards,
AES Tietê S/A
Diretoria de Relações com Investidores
Av. Dr. Marcos Penteado de Ulhôa Rodrigues, 939 - 6º andar, Bairro Sítio Tamboré, Torre II
Condomínio Castelo Branco Office Park - CEP 06460-040
Barueri – SP – Brasil
Fone.: 55 11 2195 7048 - Fax: 55 11 2195 1004
De:
Enviado: sexta-feira, 24 de outubro de 2014 19:55
Para: Lina Paolone Gallo; RI AES Tiete
Cc:
Assunto: My big concern about drought impact
Hello AES:
I'm your ADR shareholder and I love AES so much due to your excellent financial performance. I wonder if recent serious drought impact AES's normal operation and profit. If yes, what's your stragedy and plan?
Sincerely,
原帖由 Tony 於 2014-10-30 22:17 發表
小弟我的看法是這樣
風險在政策
乾旱反而是好幾會,不是風險
發電廠健廠成本最高
只要發電廠還在
早晚會下雨
有下雨就能發電賺錢
不可能永遠乾旱
如果巴西一直乾旱
那咖啡就要漲翻天了
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