標題: HLF
mikeon88
管理員
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 15453
閱讀權限 255
註冊 2007-1-14
用戶註冊天數 6284
用戶失蹤天數 0

111.243.21.121
發表於 2015-3-23 22:24  資料 主頁 文集 私人訊息 


QUOTE:
原帖由 mikeon88 於 2015-3-9 12:04 發表
之前算到,Ackman桑買了10億美元賣權,
以15倍槓桿算,權利金約6,700萬(=10/15)美元。
賣權買在40美元,
加上調查成本和遊說議員,成本為31美元。

HLF股價漲到42.8美元(=40x1.07)賣權即賠光,
屆時將損失 ...

HLF 46.5元了,
Ackman桑買的賣權GG了。(灑花 )
頂部
chenleon1 (leon)
會員
Rank: 1



UID 451
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 1532
閱讀權限 10
註冊 2011-5-26
用戶註冊天數 4690
用戶失蹤天數 1840

125.230.69.202
發表於 2015-3-24 08:27  資料 文集 私人訊息 
上個月有跟 kaka 一起加碼!
頂部
Tony0513
同學




UID 71055
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 593
閱讀權限 99
註冊 2017-12-4
用戶註冊天數 2306
用戶失蹤天數 2066

163.27.228.165
發表於 2015-3-24 08:50  資料 私人訊息 
小弟我也有加碼
好像賺30%
慢慢等~~
目標賺3倍
期望中~~
頂部
mikeon88
管理員
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 15453
閱讀權限 255
註冊 2007-1-14
用戶註冊天數 6284
用戶失蹤天數 0

223.136.201.206
發表於 2015-3-24 10:05  資料 主頁 文集 私人訊息 
頂部
chenleon1 (leon)
會員
Rank: 1



UID 451
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 1532
閱讀權限 10
註冊 2011-5-26
用戶註冊天數 4690
用戶失蹤天數 1840

125.230.69.202
發表於 2015-3-24 17:07  資料 文集 私人訊息 
剛剛 check ibillionaire http://www.ibillionaire.me/funds/13/bill-ackman/pershing-squareackman 已經沒有放空 hlf 了!
頂部
mikeon88
管理員
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 15453
閱讀權限 255
註冊 2007-1-14
用戶註冊天數 6284
用戶失蹤天數 0

111.243.7.39
發表於 2015-3-30 11:40  資料 主頁 文集 私人訊息 
Ackman桑買了10億美元賣權,
以15倍槓桿算,權利金約6,700萬(=10/15)美元。
賣權買在48美元,
加上調查成本和遊說議員,成本為35美元。

HLF股價漲到51.4美元(=48x1.07)賣權即賠光,
屆時將損失51.4/35-1=47%,
6,700萬美元x47%/7%=4.5億美元

Ackman桑身價15億美金
頂部
Friendk
同學




UID 2456
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 785
閱讀權限 99
註冊 2013-5-6
用戶註冊天數 3979
用戶失蹤天數 318

220.132.98.24
發表於 2015-3-30 16:58  資料 私人訊息 
投機, 期貨, 選擇權, 少碰. 最好不碰. 因為投機得來的通常多留不住, 不是又賠回去, 就是未贏就輸了一屁股.
頂部
ashely200809
同學




UID 740
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 96
閱讀權限 99
註冊 2011-8-30
用戶註冊天數 4594
用戶失蹤天數 753

203.73.149.229
發表於 2015-5-6 21:46  資料 私人訊息 
開盤漲了>16%
  • HLF raised its full-year guidance, crushed earnings estimates, and saw its price target hiked to $53 from $50 at Canaccord Genuity. Now, the shares are 14% higher in electronic trading, poised to continue their recent success. That is, during the past two months, Herbalife Ltd. has outdone the S& 500 Index (SPX) by 19 percentage points to settle yesterday at $40.09, and short-term speculators have been trading calls in response. HLF's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.06 is lower than 80% of readings from the past year. In other words, traders targeting options expiring within three months or less are far more call-skewed than normal.
  • http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/news/2015/05/06/analyst-upgrades-electronic-arts-inc-sarepta-therapeutics-inc-and-herbalife-ltd
  • Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) rallied almost 15.24% after it reported surprisingly strong results for the first three months of the year. Herbalife reported adjusted first-quarter earnings Tuesday of $109 million, or $1.29 a share, down from $151 million, or $1.50, in the same period last year. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.01 a share, which the company easily beat. Herbalife also raised its profit forecast for the year.
  • http://www.wsobserver.com/latest-top-news-stories-herbalife-ltd-nysehlf-noodles-co-nasdaqndls-zulily-inc-nasdaqzu-skullcandy-inc-nasdaqskul/7213258/
與這有關ㄇ?
頂部
chenleon1 (leon)
會員
Rank: 1



UID 451
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 1532
閱讀權限 10
註冊 2011-5-26
用戶註冊天數 4690
用戶失蹤天數 1840

125.230.91.52
發表於 2015-5-7 08:25  資料 文集 私人訊息 
股價低點總在論壇哀聲四起時...屢試不爽, 屢買屢漲...
頂部
mikeon88
管理員
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 15453
閱讀權限 255
註冊 2007-1-14
用戶註冊天數 6284
用戶失蹤天數 0

118.169.168.115
發表於 2015-5-20 05:21  資料 主頁 文集 私人訊息 


QUOTE:
原帖由 mikeon88 於 2015-3-30 11:40 發表
Ackman桑買了10億美元賣權,
以15倍槓桿算,權利金約6,700萬(=10/15)美元。
賣權買在48美元,
加上調查成本和遊說議員,成本為35美元。

HLF股價漲到51.4美元(=48x1.07)賣權即賠光,
屆時將損失51.4/35-1=47%,
6,700萬美元x47%/7%=4.5億美元

Ackman桑身價15億美金

HLF 51.1元,Ackman桑Game Over了。
頂部
mikeon88
管理員
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 15453
閱讀權限 255
註冊 2007-1-14
用戶註冊天數 6284
用戶失蹤天數 0

223.136.148.5
發表於 2015-5-21 23:16  資料 主頁 文集 私人訊息 
奇怪?怎麼沒有記者去訪問Ackman桑他的賣權怎麼了?
頂部
polyperry
同學




UID 185
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 1011
閱讀權限 99
註冊 2011-3-19
用戶註冊天數 4758
用戶失蹤天數 486
來自 886

114.37.120.53
發表於 2015-5-22 00:25  資料 私人訊息 
只有提到

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ackman-short-selling-not-worth-140600488.html

"It's not worth the brain damage," he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV's Stephanie Ruhle on Monday. "I would have to think very, very hard before another public short."
頂部
Joe
同學




UID 2
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 2090
閱讀權限 99
註冊 2011-3-16
用戶註冊天數 4761
用戶失蹤天數 1941

122.107.162.24
發表於 2015-6-24 07:16  資料 私人訊息 

美股禿鷹成孤鳥 艾克曼:放空將三思


希臘債務危機解決露出一線曙光,激勵美股周一勁揚,納斯達克指數收盤再創新高,《紐約時報》指出,美股多頭氣盛、看回不回,讓眾多空頭禿鷹愈走愈孤單,逐漸噤聲成孤鳥,放空賀寶芙喧騰一時的艾克曼說:「下次放空前會三思。」艾克曼(Bill Ackman)數億美元放空賀寶芙(HERBALIFE)至今尚未取得勝利,他受訪時表示做空者是孤鳥。多年前因曝露安隆案(Enron)而聲名大噪的空頭大師查諾斯(James S. Chanos),正準備推出1檔專敲進股票的基金。

空頭基金生意難做

美股多頭行情邁入第6年,迭創新高,納斯達克指數(納指)周一上揚0.7%收5153.97點,較本月18日舊紀錄高了21點。許多以做空為主的避險基金大嘆生意難做。
避險基金諮詢公司Aksia共同創辦人拉魯契(Joseph Larucci)說:「這對許多側重放空的經理人是一段非常艱困的時期,這波長多下的差勁績效導致資金外流,迫使部分經理人舉白旗投降,其他人則在努力維持營業。」
據HFR估計,去年側重做空的基金流失逾13億美元資金,主要反映投資人在負報酬下贖回,目前全球8431檔避險基金僅17檔著重做空。專做空特定幾檔高價股的避險基金多被多頭漲勢輾平。
拿豪華電動車商特斯拉(TESLA)來說,該檔股票曾長達多年是放空者鍾愛標的,但股價在2013年初至去年9月間暴漲逾6倍,近期股價雖拉回至每股約260美元,但仍遠高於起漲時約30美元的水準。
頂部
ashely200809
同學




UID 740
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 96
閱讀權限 99
註冊 2011-8-30
用戶註冊天數 4594
用戶失蹤天數 753

42.75.92.163
發表於 2015-8-6 21:48  資料 私人訊息 
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/185317/herbalife-beats-on-q2-earnings-revenues-ups-15-eps-view
Herbalife Ltd.(HLF - Snapshot Report) recently reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2015 results on the back of higher sales in China and prudent expense management. The company also raised its earnings guidance for 2015, despite currency headwinds.

This weight management and nutritional products company delivered second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.24 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.13 by 9.7%. Earnings were also above the guidance range of $1.05–$1.15 per share.
Adjusted earnings, however, declined 20% year over year due to currency headwinds, as approximately 80% of its business is spread overseas. Second quarter adjusted earnings were negatively impacted by 41 cents due to currency headwinds, inclusive of the devaluation of the Venezuelan bolivar.

Herbalife Ltd. Inc. - Earnings Surprise | FindTheBest




Net sales of $1.162 billion declined 11% from the prior-year period due to currency headwinds and a 5% decline in volumes. Sales however beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.148 billion by 1.2%. The year-over-year decline was within the company’s expectation of a decline of 10.5% to 13.5%. The volume decline was also within the expected range of 4.5% to 7.5%. Excluding currency headwinds, sales grew 1% year over year as against the company’s guidance range of flat to down 3%.
Regionally, Europe, the Middle East and Africa reported 4% volume growth backed by the company’s enhanced marketing plan. China continued to outperform, recording impressive volume point growth of 38%. However, volumes declined in North America, Asia Pacific, Mexico and South & Central America by 9%, 15%, 5% and 16%, respectively.
In the second quarter, the company saw volume point trends improve in three of the four key markets most impacted by its marketing plan changes - the U.S., Mexico and Brazil. In fact, the company is seeing sequential improvements in key metrics in these markets and remains encouraged by the positive trends.
Third-Quarter 2015 Guidance
Herbalife expects sales to decline in the range of 7%- 10% and volumes to decrease 1% to 4% in the third quarter. Venezuela currency movements will have a negative impact of approximately 5 percentage points on net sales growth rate in the third quarter.

Organic sales (excluding Venezuelan currency devaluation) are expected to increase 1% - 4%. For the third quarter, the company expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.00 to $1.10, which includes an unfavorable currency impact of approximately 40 cents per share, inclusive of approximately 13 cents resulting from Venezuela currency movements. Excluding currency impact, adjusted earnings are expected in the range of $1.40 to $1.50 per share.
Raised Full Year Earnings Guidance
Following better-than-expected second quarter 2015 results, improved volume trends and cost control measures, Herbalife raised its earnings guidance range for the full year. We note that this is the second time Herbalife has raised its earnings guidance in 2015.
The new guidance reflects the company’s positive outlook for the near term, as a result of strategic decisions company taken to improve the business and tremendous leadership by all the senior sales leaders. The company anticipates that these important and effective changes will in turn improve volume growth later this year.
It now expects adjusted earnings in the range of $4.50 to $4.70, up from $4.30 to $4.60 per share. This includes currency headwinds of approximately $1.40 per share (higher from the previous guidance of $1.26 per share), inclusive of 45 cents for Venezuela currency movements (unchanged from the previous guidance). On a currency adjusted basis, earnings are expected in the range of $5.90 to $6.10 per share compared with $5.55 to $5.85 per share, guided previously.
However, the company has reiterated its net sales guidance range for 2015. Herbalife continues to expect sales to decline in the range of 6.5% to 9.5%. Currency headwinds will have a negative impact of approximately 1000 basis points on net sales growth rates in the full year, adjusted for Venezuela currency movements. Volumes are expected to be down 1% to 4%. Organic sales (excluding Venezuelan currency devaluation) are expected to decline 0.5% to increase 2.5%.
Ackman Impact
Herbalife’s shares have been on a roller coaster ride as they are significantly impacted by allegations by activist investor William Bill Ackman, hedge fund manager of Pershing Square.
Ackman has been keeping an eye on Herbalife since Dec 2012, accusing it of being a pyramid scheme i.e. it employs deceptive marketing practices for improving business. Ackman believes that the nutrition clubs run by Herbalife's distributors focus on recruitment instead of selling products. (Read: Herbalife Faces Another Ackman Attack).
Ackman's back-to-back allegations have prompted investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Trade Commission, FBI and at least two state attorneys general. But none so far has taken any action. Herbalife, on its part, has been denying the charges since 2012 and has full confidence in its business model.
Herbalife is not the only company, which employs sales representatives to sell its products. Other multi-level marketing companies like Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. (NUS - Snapshot Report), USANA Health Sciences Inc. (USNA - Snapshot Report) and Avon Products Inc. (AVP - Analyst Report) also follow the same distribution model.

[ 本帖最後由 ashely200809 於 2015-8-6 21:49 編輯 ]
頂部
mikeon88
管理員
Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9


UID 1
精華 0
積分 0
帖子 15453
閱讀權限 255
註冊 2007-1-14
用戶註冊天數 6284
用戶失蹤天數 0

111.83.51.197
發表於 2015-8-9 19:45  資料 主頁 文集 私人訊息 
上周五我的HLF股息不計,只賠3%,
從最嚴重跌50%到現在終於回本。
這顯示投資哪有那麼簡單,
哪是三年五年就能出師,
要堅持百忍,莊敬自強,處變不驚,才能獲得成功,
誠如孟子所言:天將降大任......
(跳舞,灑花,撥髮)
頂部