mikeon88
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From: Perry Kuo
Sent: Tuesday, March 06, 2012 7:37 PM
Subject: 看來巴菲特真的有盈再表.
Dear Mikeon 桑,
看來巴菲特真的有盈再表.
盈再表跑出來的 IBM 的"現在 PER"=15(see attachment).
200 買入 IBM,Berkshire 擁有7%.
股價1=15*EPS1=15*(20b*7%/63.9m)
300 買入 IBM,Berkshire 擁有6.5%.
股價2=15*EPS2=15*(20b*6.5%/63.9m)
價差=(股價1-股價2)*63.9m=15*(20b*7%-20b*6.5%)=15*20b*0.5%=1.5b
剛好等於年報上的值.
^_^
PS.Chris 桑,很厲害,一下就知道年報上如何算.
Best Regards
Perry
Let’s use IBM as an example. As all business observers know, CEOs Lou Gerstner and Sam Palmisanodid a superb job in moving IBM from near-bankruptcy twenty years ago to its prominence today. Theiroperational accomplishments were truly extraordinary.
But their financial management was equally brilliant, particularly in recent years as the company’s
financial flexibility improved. Indeed, I can think of no major company that has had better financial management, askill that has materially increased the gains enjoyed by IBM shareholders. The company has used debt wisely, madevalue-adding acquisitions almost exclusively for cash and aggressively repurchased its own stock.Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%.Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us.Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for theday: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period?
I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years.Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and wewould own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-yearperiod, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding afterfive years, of which we would own 6.5%.
If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100million greater under the “disappointing” scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher[size=+0]price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $11⁄2 billion more than if the “high-price”repurchase scenario had taken place.
.| 國際商業機器公司 (NYSE:IBM)：電腦業-整合系統 | | | | Down 0.11% N | 建議 | | | IBM | 還原$ | ROE% | 4盈再% | 常利$m | YoY% | EPS$ | 股息$ | 拆股 | | 2007/12 | 211.6 | | | 10,400 | - | 7.5 | 1.50 | 1:1 | 股價$ | 200.7 | | 2008/12 | 210.1 | 43 | | 12,308 | 18 | 9.2 | 1.90 | 1:1 | 預期報酬 | 32% | | 2009/12 | 208.2 | 101 | | 13,420 | 9 | 10.3 | 2.15 | 1:1 | 俗$ | 571.1 | | 2010/12 | 206.1 | 66 | | 14,833 | 11 | 12.1 | 2.50 | 1:1 | 報酬% | 15% | | 2011/12 | 203.6 | 69 | (25) | 15,855 | 7 | 13.6 | 2.90 | 1:1 | 貴$ | 1,667.5 | | 2012F | 200.7 | 79 | (5) | 15,855 | 0 | 13.6 | 0.00 | 1:1 | 報酬% | 0% | | 200.66 | 75 | 72…平均ROE | | | | | 現在PER | 15 | | | | | | | | | | 最終PER | 12 | | | | | | | | | | 預期配息 | 57% |
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