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標題: 淡馬錫基金大賣中國銀行股 [打印本頁]

作者: chris 時間: 2011-7-7 22:57 標題: 淡馬錫基金大賣中國銀行股

新加坡主權基金(也是全世界最大單一主權基金)大賣持有的中國銀行(bank of china),還有中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank)的股票.why??請各位看看.大致推測:
1.中國公布地方銀行及政府的debt,超過預期,影響國有銀行的獲利及增加風險
2純粹是portfolio的分配.
給各位有投資大陸股票的同學做參考!!
Temasek Sends Signal on China Bank Risk By TOM ORLIK How bad can things get for China's banks? Temasek Holdings isn't waiting around to find out.
The Singapore state investment fund, the biggest foreign investor in China's banking sector, has sold 49% of its shares in Bank of China and 8% of its China Construction Bank holdings for a total of US$3.6 billion. The timing rings alarm bells. Last week, China's National Audit Office announced that the banking sector is exposed to some $1.3 trillion in local-government debt. Press reports then said local-government financing vehicles in Shanghai and Yunnan could default on their debts. Investors fear those debts represent the tip of a default iceberg. Bank of China is down 13% since the beginning of June, and China Construction Bank is off 14%.

A desire to diversify its assets may have played a role in Temasek's decision. It also is possible it is trying to get ahead of the curve, with rumors that Bank of America—the second-largest investor in China Construction Bank—plans to sell down a portion of its holdings.
Whatever the reality, two factors loom large: the extent of bad debts in the system and the banks' scope to grow through the problems. Neither looks encouraging.
A Moody's report estimates nonperforming loans in the banking system could hit 8%-12% from the current 1.1%. At the same time, a two-year lending bonanza has seen China's loan-to-GDP ratio soar to 127% in 2010 from 101% in 2008. It is hard to gauge how high nonperforming loans will rise, given limited visibility on asset quality at China's banks. But Temasek's sales suggest not everyone is giving the benefit of the doubt

作者: mikeon88 時間: 2011-7-8 13:54

中國的銀行股其實已經便宜了

中国银行( 上海：601988 )								13:51	建議
601988	還原$	ROE%	4盈再%	常利$m	YoY%	EPS$	股息$	股子	建議
2007	3.7	-		56,229	-	0.2	0.04	0.00	股價$	3.1
2008	3.7	15		63,539	13	0.3	0.10	0.00	預期報酬	24%
2009	3.6	17		80,819	27	0.3	0.13	0.00	俗$	5.6
2010	3.4	19		99,145	23	0.4	0.14	0.00	報酬%	15%
2011F	3.3	17	13	111,682	13	0.4	0.15	0.00	貴$	17.0
	3.13	17	17…平均ROE						報酬%	0%
									現在PER	8
									最終PER	12
									預期配息	67%

建设银行( 上海：601939 )								13:47	建議
601939	還原$	ROE%	4盈再%	常利$m	YoY%	EPS$	股息$	股子	建議
2007	5.5	-		69,053	-	0.3			股價$	4.8
2008	5.5	22		92,599	34	0.4	0.18	0.00	預期報酬	27%
2009	5.3	23		106,756	15	0.5	0.08	0.00	俗$	10.6
2010	5.3	24		134,657	26	0.5	0.20	0.00	報酬%	15%
2011F	5.1	21	5	146,865	9	0.6	0.21	0.00	貴$	32.3
	4.84	21	23…平均ROE						報酬%	0%
									現在PER	8
									最終PER	12
									預期配息	67%

作者: weyzhiro 時間: 2011-7-8 14:48

沒錯!!中國銀行股已經很便宜了!!我會毫不考慮就買了!!但台胞何時能直接投資A股??

作者: bluestar 時間: 2011-7-9 23:02

港股也有這兩支，也已經到便宜價
只是股息和盈再率都是紅字

作者: chris 時間: 2011-7-13 10:29

看起來很便宜，不過

1.配息率與盈再率有落差。
2.報表可信度。各分行的壞債（bad debt）是否有真實反映？
這是個人疑慮。
反過來說，這兩個銀行不會倒，所以頂多套牢，低接加碼即可。
（外資持有BOC股份最多的是BOA：bank of america）
個人會適時加碼！！

作者: benson2003 時間: 2018-6-2 17:45

震驚:傳川普將凍結中國金融高官在美資產http://news.creaders.net/us/2018/05/30/big5/1957596.html
是講真的還是講假的？川普真要動手玩真的呀？

歡迎光臨巴菲特班洪瑞泰 (Michael On) (http://mikeon88.freebbs.tw/)