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標題: Church & Dwight (CHD) 小蘇打粉 [打印本頁]

作者: Josephchu0616    時間: 2014-6-10 18:32     標題: Church & Dwight (CHD) 小蘇打粉


雖然短期不可能買到CHD,但這家公司看起來實在很不錯.

第一次看到CHD,是幾個月前去Costco,被他鮮豔的包裝和特殊的手臂錘投商標所吸引,湊近一看原來是小蘇打粉. 當時以為應該是PG,UL,CLX,或其他大廠的產品. 前幾星期看大聯盟時,又看到球場旁看出現這商標,所以決心了解一下.

找到Fool有一篇文章,是我看過幾篇文章中寫的最好的,所以我直接引用部分內容

CHD是賣小蘇打粉起家,目前賣的產品跟他168年前賣出的一模一樣, 還有什麼比這更經久不變呢?

Fool: CHD的洗衣精產品比他的競爭對手PGTide還便宜50-65%, 牙膏比CL的高露潔便宜50%, (超強的價格殺傷力! 看一下財報居然還有45%毛利)

Fool: 2009年後中高價的洗衣精市場分別跌了1%3.2%, 而低價洗衣精成長5%,CHD洗衣精市佔從46.6%(2009)成長到53.5%(2013).

Fool: 不像其他消費品公司有一大堆產品,CHD採取是集中資源策略,公司前8大產品合計占80%的營收及獲利. 根據CHD內部估計他們應該是全美國廣告費用第13高的公司, Wiki 的資料2010年的Fortune 500排行CHD723 .(不斷擴大品牌護城河)

作者表示,在所有消費品公司中CHD是他的心中首選.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/17/1-consumer-brands-company-will-survive-in-a-challe.aspx
作者: mikeon88    時間: 2014-6-10 18:58


作者: mikeon88    時間: 2014-6-10 19:10

看這一陣子同學們推薦的一些美股,
幾乎都貴了,
顯示美股也普遍貴了。

作者: mikeon88    時間: 2014-6-10 21:27

剛剛跟宥聰桑聊,
他提到若沒這個巴菲特班,
我們做美股不可能知道這麼多股票,
全要感謝同學無私的分享。

我也有相同的感觸,

要讓每個人都樂於分享,
維持一個良好的討論環境,不受語言暴力,
是非常重要的。

作者: bni822    時間: 2014-6-10 21:48

非常贊同 Mikeon 的看法!!

有人去積極探求一些評價公式來頻繁的交易,不是違背巴老得初衷嗎? 有時候真的不能太積極的求財 ! 真的要培養一些興趣, 時機沒到時才可好好消磨時間!


感謝 Joseph 的介紹, 這排小蘇打家裡幾乎是必備的, 但我不曾想過去探求是否是值得投資的公司, 所謂從日常生活中去找尋, 真是受教了 !


[ 本帖最後由 bni822 於 2014-6-10 21:49 編輯 ]
作者: JILL(軒)    時間: 2014-6-10 21:53

是的^^我超喜歡這隻股
我收下來了~~感謝
搭配檸檬酸~~~~~廚房亮晶晶
作者: Joe    時間: 2014-6-10 22:34

感謝最近同學分享各國好股票以個人能力時間不可能去研究這麼多股票
有巴菲特班真好 !
作者: Derekx    時間: 2014-6-10 22:50

我也是加入巴菲特班 才開始認識很多的美股
真得是太感謝大家了
希望未來有機會也可以分享我的標的
作者: chuan_heng1019    時間: 2014-6-10 23:12

這支我之前也有留意過
我也仿照JOE桑"實地考查"的精神
去大賣場看了看
不過那時候CHD也是貴價了
再加上我知道它賣蘇打粉而已
其他都不知道
所以就擱著了
今天看到Joseph桑的分析
果然是一家很不錯的公司
謝謝Joseph桑無私的分享
作者: aiwheat    時間: 2014-6-10 23:34

謝謝推薦這家,
果然是不用3秒鐘就知道的好公司,
去了官網查了一下,它的產品還蠻多樣化的,
http://www.churchdwight.com/brands-and-products/brand-browser.aspx
除了Joseph提到的產品外,還有像是除毛膏、驗孕和排卵檢測產品和保險套等等,
真是多角化經營,有部分品牌產品在美國都是市占率不錯的,

有台灣代理商的官網,不過只有其中ARM & HAMMER和OxiClean兩大品牌而已。
http://www.armandhammer.com.tw/

作者: chruwu    時間: 2014-6-11 08:48

有巴班同學真好,衷心感謝!!
作者: id4eric2    時間: 2014-6-11 08:52

請教一下,台股還原股價,價差比較明顯,
美股很不明顯,這家比較明顯。
這是為啥? (美股較少配現金??)
作者: chuan_heng1019    時間: 2014-6-11 10:44

因為CHD2011年有拆股
作者: maomaosun    時間: 2014-6-11 19:29

謝謝巴菲特班,每位同學都是各界專業領域翹楚,
更感謝mike與joe的引導投入美股的投資,實務領略投資的真諦,
現在已經有HFL,COH,BBBY..
MAO
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 06:49


  1. https://churchdwight.com/our-brands/

作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 06:58

  1. OVERVIEW OF BUSINESS
  2. We were founded in 1846 and incorporated in Delaware in 1925.  We develop, manufacture and market a broad range of consumer household and personal care products and specialty products focused on animal productivity, chemicals and cleaners. Our consumer products marketing efforts are focused principally on our 11 “power brands.” These well-recognized brand names include ARM & HAMMER, used in multiple product categories such as baking soda, cat litter, carpet deodorization and laundry detergent; TROJAN condoms, lubricants and vibrators; OXICLEAN stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents and bleach alternatives; SPINBRUSH battery-operated toothbrushes; FIRST RESPONSE home pregnancy and ovulation test kits; NAIR depilatories; ORAJEL oral analgesic; XTRA laundry detergent; the combination of the L’IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brand names for the our gummy dietary supplement business; BATISTE dry shampoo; and WATERPIK water flossers and showerheads.



作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 07:17

Acquisitions:
  1. We made two consumer products acquisitions in 2017.  On January 17, 2017, we acquired the VIVISCAL brand (the “Viviscal Acquisition”), the number one non-drug hair growth supplement in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, from Lifes2good Holdings Limited for $160 million.  On August 7, 2017, we acquired the WATERPIK brand (the “Waterpik Acquisition”) for approximately $1 billion.  WATERPIK is the number one water flosser and replacement showerhead brand in the U.S.
  2. Additionally, on May 1, 2017, we acquired Agro BioSciences, Inc. (the “Agro Acquisition”), an innovator and leader in developing custom probiotic益生菌 products for poultry, cattle and swine.
  3. The identification and integration of strategic acquisitions are an important component of our overall strategy.  Acquisitions have added significantly to our sales and profits over the last decade.  This is recently evidenced by our 2015 acquisition of certain assets of Varied Industries Corporation (the “VI-COR Acquisition”), 2016 acquisitions of Spencer Forrest, Inc., the maker of TOPPIK (the “TOPPIK Acquisition”), and the ANUSOL and RECTINOL businesses from Johnson & Johnson (the “ANUSOL Acquisition”) and 2017 acquisitions of VIVISCAL from Lifes2Good Holdings Limited (the “Viviscal Acquisition”), Agro BioSciences, Inc. (the “Agro Acquisition”), and WATERPIK from Pik Holdings, Inc. (the “Waterpik Acquisition”).  However, the failure to effectively integrate any acquisition or achieve expected synergies may cause us to incur material asset write-downs.  We actively seek acquisitions that fit our guidelines, and our strong financial position小蘇打業務所創造的資金 provides us with flexibility to take advantage of acquisition opportunities.  In addition, our ability to quickly integrate acquisitions and leverage existing infrastructure has enabled us to establish a strong track record in making accretive acquisitions.  Since 2001, we have acquired 10 of our 11 “power brands”. (目前11款暢銷產品,10個品牌都是靠併購而來)

作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 08:29

Our founders first marketed sodium bicarbonate, otherwise known as baking soda, in 1846小蘇打真的是經久不變的產品 for use in home baking. Today, this product has a wide variety of uses in the home小蘇打應用相當廣泛, including as a refrigerator and freezer deodorizer, scratch-free cleaner and deodorizer for kitchen surfaces and cooking appliances, bath additive, dentifrice, cat litter deodorizer and swimming pool pH stabilizer. We specialize in baking soda-based products, as well as other products which use the same raw materials or technology or which are sold in the same markets. CHD的許多產品都是由小蘇打延伸出來
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 08:34

  1. CHD的11 power brand都是該領域的暢銷產品
  2. ARM & HAMMER Baking Soda remains the numberone leading brand of baking soda in terms of consumer recognition of the brand nameand reputation for quality and value.
  3. condoms under the TROJAN brand (the number onecondom brand in the U.S.), battery-operated toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSHbrand (the number one leading brand of battery-operated toothbrushes in theU.S. in 2017), water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand (thenumber one water flosser and replacement showerhead brand in the U.S.), homepregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand (the numberone selling brand in the U.S.), hair-removal products under the NAIR brand,oral analgesics and oral care products under the ORAJEL brand (the marketleader in the toothache, canker sore, and children’s teething categories in theU.S.), children’s gummy dietary supplements under the L’IL CRITTERS brand andadult gummy dietary supplements under the VITAFUSION brand (both number oneleading brands in their respective categories), a growing number of hairproducts under the BATISTE, VIVISCAL, TOPPIK (the number one leading brand ofcosmetics for thinning hair), and XFUSION brands, and nasal saline moisturizersand solutions under the SIMPLY SALINE and STERIMAR brands

作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 08:57

  1. We compete in the household and personal care consumer product categories, which are highly innovative categories, characterized by a continuous flow of new products and line extensions, and require significant advertising and promotion.
  2. 這句不錯:we usually are not able to determine whether the new products and line extensions will be successful until a period of time has elapsed following the introduction of the new products or the extension of the product line.

作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 11:03

  1. Consumer Domestic產品主要競爭對手:Our competitors in the Consumer Domestic and Consumer International segments include P&G(PG), The Clorox Company(CLX), Colgate-Palmolive Company(CL), S.C. Johnson & Son(私人公司), Inc., Nestle Purina PetCare Company(NSRGY子公司), Henkel(HENOY, HENKY), Reckitt Benckiser Group plc(RBGLY), Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), Ansell Limited(ANSLY), Pfizer Inc.(PFE), Bayer AG(BAYRY), Alere Inc.(ALR), NBTY(私人公司), Inc. and Pharmavite LLC(OTSKY這家不太優). Many of these companies have greater financial resources than we do and have the capacity to outspend us in their attempts to gain market share.
  2. Specialty Products Division (“SPD”)產品主要競爭對手:Our key competitors with respect to our SPD segment are Archer Daniel Midland Co (ADM), Diamond V, Lallemand Inc., Solvay Chemicals (SOLVY), Inc., Genesis Alkali(GEL這家不太優) and Natural Soda, Inc.(“SPD”應用在Animal Productivity, Specialty Chemicals and Specialty Cleaners)


[ 本帖最後由 Curry 於 2018-9-28 11:20 編輯 ]
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 12:44

In each of the years ended December 31, 2017, 2016, and 2015, net sales to our largest customer, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and its affiliates (“Wal-Mart”), were 24%, 24% and 24% respectively, of our consolidated net sales. No other customer accounted for 10% or more of consolidated net sales in the three-year period.
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 12:49

  1. 產品用途
  2. We focus our consumer products marketing efforts principally on our 11 “power brands.”  These well-recognized brand names include ARM & HAMMER, used in multiple product categories such as baking soda, cat litter, carpet deodorization and laundry detergent; TROJAN condoms, lubricants and vibrators; OXICLEAN stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergent, dishwashing detergent and bleach alternatives; SPINBRUSH battery-operated and manual toothbrushes;  FIRST RESPONSE home pregnancy and ovulation test kits; NAIR depilatories; ORAJEL oral analgesic; XTRA laundry detergent; L’IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION gummy dietary supplements, BATISTE dry shampoos and in 2017 added WATERPIK water flossers and replacement showerheads.

作者: mikeon88    時間: 2018-9-28 13:16

Curry 桑,nice job !
作者: jayshen    時間: 2018-9-28 13:23

小蘇打粉真的很好用 ~
廚房的水管不通,以前都固定每年都要請人家來通,
一次就要 1500 ~ 1800元,
自己用了各種方法都效果不好,
最後用"小蘇打粉" + "白醋" 倒入水管30分,
然後再沖一鍋的熱水,
就順暢溜溜 ~~~
從此就成為CHD小蘇打粉的愛用者 ~
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 15:31

  1. 2017年廣告支出佔營收比較:CHD 12%,CLX 9.3%,PG 10.6%(看到廣告公司WPP跟OMC的護城河了)
  2. CHD真的很努力在打廣告
  3. CHD財報
  4. CLX財報
  5. PG財報


[ 本帖最後由 Curry 於 2018-9-28 15:45 編輯 ]
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 15:51

  1. 漢高Henkelhttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B1%89%E9%AB%98%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8
  2. HENKY及HENOY,兩個Ordinary:ADR都是1:1,但配息率&預期報酬在盈再表都一樣
  3. HENOY: preferred share ownership certificates(優先股,股價較高)
  4. HENKY: ordinary share ownership certificates
  5. https://www.henkel.com/investors-and-analysts/shares



[ 本帖最後由 Curry 於 2018-9-28 15:53 編輯 ]
作者: Raimu    時間: 2018-9-28 16:21

一直很想買CHD
可惜一直等不到機會入手...
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-9-28 16:45

Raimu哥,等股災吧!萬事俱備 只欠東風!
作者: mikeon88    時間: 2018-9-28 16:58

當研究員需要做一些基本功,公司的財報、產業狀況都要研究透徹,
然後若總結一句,認為CHD可以好很久的理由為何?
以前我在外資都這樣訓練我們。
作者: kaka    時間: 2018-9-29 15:03

Curry 同學,讚啦!
作者: Curry    時間: 2018-10-5 15:01



QUOTE:
原帖由 mikeon88 於 2018-9-28 16:58 發表
然後若總結一句,認為CHD可以好很久的理由為何?



因為CHD有11 power brand(都是各領域的number one)+不錯的併購功力,應該就大致符合以下標準:
  1. 產品不會變
  2. 產業地位不會變 (A咖、龍頭股)
  3. 想3秒鐘就了解的公司

作者: Curry    時間: 2018-10-5 15:28

  1. 在寫#32結論前,自問以下問題及查到結果:


作者: Curry    時間: 2018-10-5 15:40

  1. 另外針對看了CHD的10K後的港想,閒聊如下
  2. CHD自認不確定新產品是否大賣,除非經過一段時間,從這裡看得出清潔用品沒人知道是否暢銷,除非經過時間考驗,所以CHD專門併購現有的暢銷產品是對的
  3. 削價競爭There continues to be significant product and price competition in the laundry detergent category. For example, P&G markets a lower-priced line of laundry detergents, Simply Tide, which competes directly with our core value laundry detergents. P&G has significantly increased its discounting of Simply Tide which could have a broad negative impact on the laundry category pricing and profitability.
  4. 現在的銷售,僅是個果,未來仍有許多挑戰,只能相信CHD併購能力+擁有的暢銷產品,因為這樣的獲利模式已維持很久的高ROE
  5. CHD利用一開始暢銷的小蘇打業務所創造的充足資金進行持續性的併購(11暢銷品牌都是各領域的number one),雖然不像PG有那麼多暢銷品牌及資金,但其11個暢銷品牌都是各領域的number one
  6. 至少目前為止CHD都併購功力不錯,如果沒有好的併購機會應該會選擇repurchase+payout
  7. CHD雖然不像V, UNP等等的behemoth,因為夠壟斷所以幾乎是每天睜開眼睛就是等著賺錢,但CHD的獲利模式看起來是相當不錯的

作者: chousirbuy    時間: 2018-10-5 21:57

https://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/church-dwight-stock-excellent-track-record-tolerable-price/

這篇文章的作者認為CHD的護城河在於他可以用最便宜的成本生產碳酸氫鈉

作者: mikeon88    時間: 2018-10-5 22:27

10K=年報=官方說法=多半報喜不報憂=隨便看一看就好
不信?去研讀BBBY歷年10K,一定一路樂觀到不行
或者看一下剛被同學賣掉PDCO的10K,必然後悔想追回來

作者: Curry    時間: 2018-10-6 03:39

請教Mike大,您就其產品及產業地位如何看待CHD?
作者: mikeon88    時間: 2018-10-6 16:23


作者: 蔚藍    時間: 2018-10-6 16:55

CHD看起來是很優沒錯,只是他的競爭對手都是大巨人,
如果底下這些公司都達到預期報酬15%,CHD不會是我的第一選擇…
每間都是入圍名單耶~


有了Curry桑深入的分析,對這間公司又有更深的認識,
十分感謝~









資料來源:CHD簡報

[ 本帖最後由 蔚藍 於 2018-10-6 17:25 編輯 ]




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